This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
John Taylor Of The World's Largest Currency Hedge Fund Sees Euro Dropping To $1.20 By August
John Taylor, chairman and chief executive officer of FX Concepts LLC, the world's largest currency hedge fund, sees the euro dropping to $1.20 by August, and believes parity is possible. Be very careful, because as of today Goldman is now accumulating euros (as per its just released Sell recommendation). More from Taylor: "It's going to be quick because things are really falling apart.... Some of these [countries] have to be thrown out [of the EMU]. If you look at a country like Latvia, which has been effectively in the Euro, has been saved by the European Commission and the IMF much like they are suggesting Greece will be, their retail sales were down 30% last year, the GDP was down 18%, it is expected to drop another 8% this year. Latvians are starving, the place is a disaster area: that's what you have to go through to be a part of the Euro." On whether his firm has felt any political pressure on putting on bearish euro bets: "None at all. We are SEC regulated and the information is there, but nobody seems to be caring." Lastly, Taylor ridicules the WSJ story about the restaurant-based collusion: "Yes, they had a meeting and talked about how bad the euro was. But that they in fact had some impact: their assets are 1% of the daily volume. Somebody like us, we have a bigger position against the euro than those people put on." Taylor says in the next three to six months, the dollar will be strongest against the euro, and Eastern European currencies. In a longer horizon, he says to be long Asia and short the euro. Bottom line: sell Europe, buy everyone else. And join the bandwagon... Just as Bernanke prepares the dollar's next suicide move with inflation obviously not working.
»
- 12353 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
--------------------------> 1 (tm Andy)
LATVIA is not a part of EMU, not associated to EMU, and has never been effectively in the Euro :)
You're right, it's not. But, the majority of its lenders are.
So what? Its currency is pegged to euro and its populace is enslaved by the european banks.
Bring it on. If it does hit parity we should have a ZH field trip.
The mid-80's all over again when you could live like a south american dictator on paper-route money.
The Euro will never decline, as it might cause the US stock "market" or whatever it is now to decline.
How many acute angle u-turns in the S&P from down to up over the last 6 months versus the opposite? The ratio must be 1,000:1 or better. Two before noon today!
Of the many puzzling things in this market, the most puzzling has been the complete fucked-upedness of the S&P/Euro correlation. When the Euro's going up, the correlation is like 100% and when it's going down, the correlation is like 20%.
That's just fucked up.
Simple - correlation is not causality. The only thing the Euro/Dollar had in common with the stock market's rise was that USD devaluation and inflation expectations were a good way to try to explain or provide some kind of fundamental reason for moves up in the markets and risk assets. Seeing the correlation fall apart just let's you know that there was some other reason the market was going up - I wouldn't spend much time looking for solid fundamentals here.
very well put
Doubtful. Goldman and JPM have shown that they will prop it up no matter what it takes; the Euro won't affect it much.
I thought his final comment was funny - Australia - "they are digging up the whole continent and shipping it off to Asia ".
The truth of the situation is that the global supply chain is deeply dysfunctional and cannot continue under the present energy production levels.
Unlimited capital flows are creating asset price bubbles everywhere where these characters make some money on the way up as everyone else piles in but they ain't no sustainable investment anywhere on this planet.
This madness must end soon.
Are you sure? On CNBC all I hear about is the "Road to Recovery" and how the stock market is booming and how the jobs number will soon turn positive.
This road to recovery thingy is quite long - does it circumvent the globe, if so will I end up where I started ?
I dont understand why you think the opposite of what goldman says will happen.
They have to be right sometimes or else every investor will leave them if they make all the wrong calls.
What I think is happening is that they told their client to go long at 1.37, which pushed the price up a bit. They then sold short and triggered the stops at 1.35. Now, this short recomendation is what will happen and recoup that loss for their clients, all the while making a very nice profit from shorting at 1.37 and plus all of the commision.
Thoughts?
Because raping and pillaging is their middle name and all their "investors" are a sadistic bunch of idiots who love getting raped by Goldman. Frankly, they deserve it.
The "investors" are not investing their own money - they will not get "punished" for losing other people's money, and guess what, those "other people" are also not investing their own money. The "investor" food chain is longer than you think, and 90% of the folks are playing with other people's money while earning fees. Those making heeding the squids' advice won't get raped, some have been around for 30 years, flying from one conference to the next to meet their mistresses or lovers in bali or bangcock or tokyo or some other exotic places. The ultimate owners of the funds won't know they jave been raped until the next crash.
You can never be sure. Inverse psychology might be at work here. They are manipulators after all.
Exactly. This is most likely quadruple-inverse cephalopod psychology at work, and they are telling the truth for a change.
I am now 100% sure that we are now very close to end of Euro's decline.
GG, how's this for an auction week smackdown in Au? I'd like to know your price targets, specifically given the fact that the HUI is blowing out support while Ag follows it downward. You seem to be one of the more knowledgeable goldies on the board (notice, I didn't use the derogative "bug" monicker), so I'd be interested to hear your take. All the best,
-GB
Respect gold price movement. It has been a reliable leading indicator for a couple years now.
Reliable indicator of what?
Hi GB, thanks for your kind words. Two months ago I would have definitely obliged you but I have stopped trading ALL paper markets (including the paper Gold market) and am only long the physical. I don't care about its paper price anymore and will keep buying irrespective of price, and recommend you do the same.
Goldman, what Chutzpah! Make a sell call and slowly buy, buy, BUY!
Errr ..... how are you gonna stop this freight train ... http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century... .... from crashing the system?
Where are all the Dollar bears? Where are all the geniuses here in the comment sections who were running their mouth how the DX will drop to the 60s within weeks?
Getting a haircut .
The DX means NOTHING.
I hear ya. Don't underestimate the power of a reserve currency in a climate of massive leveraged debt and maturing CDS's. And let's not forget the power behind the currency. Why do you think the countries that issue the reserve currency always seem to be at war? Would you seek protection from the playground bully if he wasn't picking fights? No. He'd be seen as lame and open himself up to challenges.
During global economic depressions, like the one we're heading into, it makes sense that all nations support the reserve currency to save their own arses. There simply is no substitute at this stage.
Prediction-multi year (impressive) dollar rally to come.
i saw nobody saying the dollar would drop to 60 in weeks
saw some who were not bullish on the dollar in longer term ,
'hedge fund guy says euro 120.. instructs his miniobs to buy,
go with gordin the gecko,, euro is in much pain,, but the bucko.. is a walking dead person,
ucvhost is a leading web site hosting service provider that is known to provide reliable and affordable hosting packages to customers. The company believes in providing absolute and superior control to the customer as well as complete security and flexibility through its many packages. cheap vps Moreover, the company provides technical support as well as customer service 24x7, in order to enable its customers to easily upgrade their software, install it or even solve their problems. ucvhost offers the following different packages to its customers