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John Williams Talks To BNN About The "Great Hyperinflationary Collapse"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Any interview that starts off with John Williams saying "Eventually it is going to be a hyperinflationary great depression" is sure to be controversial. While not necessarily news to those who subscribe to the Shadowstats.com editor's newsletter, sometime we wish that Blackhawk Ben was among them, because despite his 100% confidence that rates will never do the kind of move that they exhibited in the past two days, they, well, did. To quote Williamss, who actually keeps track of the US economy as if it were a GAAP audited corporation: "The annual deficit is running $4-5 trillion a year, that includes the Y/Y change in the NPV of unfunded liabilities... There is no political will to deal with this." The catalyst is well-known: "When you see panic selling of the US dollar, that's when you have to be really careful. But what's already been done with the dollar has spiked oil prices, and other commodity prices." On the question of why Bernanke would not be able to pull off what Volcker did in the early 1980s, Williams' explanation for why this time it is different, mostly focuses on the size of the US trade and budget deficits, which are not even remotely comparable on both an absolute and relative basis. Most specifically what consumers should do in the post-apocalypse world, Williams is not too optimistic. Ironically, he notes that Zimbabwe in its hyperinflation may have been lucky in that it had the dollar to fall back on in the black market, and now every market. However the US does not have that facility, and this "will get very difficult when food starts disappearing from shelves." Having goods for storage and barter would be critical. However, there may be a snag...

It appears that Mountain House, which is one of the better purveyors of freeze dried food and holds over 30 servings and last for 20 years because they are packed with nitrogen rather than oxygen, is now sold out of all #10 cans -link.

And for those who go to NitroPak, which sells these products, they have the following message:

***CURRENT INVENTORY UPDATE*** There is currently EXTREMELY high demand for all of our Mountain House foods nationwide due to current economic uncertainty and inflation fears. With this increase in demand, our food order processing times have increased also. As Mountain House’s leading distributor, we are receiving huge shipments weekly to fill our customer orders. We are shipping as quickly as we can. Your charge card will not be charged-up until we are ready to process your order. Thank you for your understanding and patience! Harry R Weyandt President

It appears that the battle lines have already been drawn, and the cheap optionality is gradually being eliminated. At this point the best the world can do is hope that Williams is wrong.

Full BNN interview with John Williams (after the jump):

h/t Robert

 

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Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:28 | 793665 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ear of corn in Buffalo=$3 WHAAAAAT? Id like to see that proof...here I can get 10 for $1.50, WTF is up with Buffalo??

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:31 | 793676 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Hyperinflation that doesn't extend to Ottawa ya helmet headed English ruffian!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:39 | 793726 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I just have a hard time believeing anyone in Buffalo would be PAYING $3 for a solitary ear of corn! Its cheap here, 10 for $1 last I looked. But in Buffalo that would be 10 for $30? Who would ever pay it?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:46 | 793764 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

that's the point Cap'n Obvious now pass the world to your mate Toll Yaso

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:39 | 793730 toathis
toathis's picture

I did not realize you folks were serious about gold, I thought it was just a ZH inside-joke.

Good luck convincing enough people that no real value makes a 100-note worth more than a 1-note. People are too dumb to care.

NO Hyper-Inflation. No Deflation. No Depression. Just slow growth for the next year or two.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:47 | 793773 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

ya growin weeds between ya ears bud

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:11 | 793883 tickhound
tickhound's picture

How the hell is the 10 year gold vs dow an inside joke?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:15 | 793906 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Already wrong there, moron.  There is no growth.  There is only slowing of decay.  More often there is acceleration of decay.

But hey, if you prefer a happy hallucination over reality, feel free to take some more shrooms.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:21 | 793633 What a mess_man
What a mess_man's picture

The igadget disdain never ends around here.  Well now, I don't want to put down my iPhone as I use it to "read about what the world may look like if rampant deflation in assets and wages hits us".  iPhones and apocalyptic bears can and do in fact co-exist peacefully.

On another note, what female thinks like this?  Wanna get married?  But seriously, +100 Teresa!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:31 | 793681 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

On another note, what female thinks like this?

More than you think...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 06:20 | 795096 Seer
Seer's picture

Yup!  I married one :-)  She understands the real fundamentals, so much so that we bought a farm.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:26 | 793651 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I agree, biggest concern is being able to lay real low for a couple months to avoid the real dangerous riots and looting. All the many years worth of food is ok, but youll probably lose that anyway, just buy lots of ammo.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:27 | 793661 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Got change for a Liberty $20 gold piece?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:53 | 794227 trav7777
trav7777's picture

bullets are too abundant and relatively useless.

If you want something to stockpile, antipyretics and antibiotics.  Forget the madmax stuff; won't happen.

Deflation in the USD will mean that foreigners, paradoxically, are starved for the dollars needed to support their USD debt, which is 75% of world debt.  This is the privilege of the reserve currency.  It is how we've been getting oil for free for 30 years.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 19:08 | 794275 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Antibiotics MUST be kept cold.

Of course, if you can get your hands on a phage culture, that is just as good or better, though you have to keep reculturing it.  Works better than antibiotics, and evolves faster than the bugs.  Also, it is endlessly reproduceable with just a little vegetable broth.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 20:12 | 794389 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Umm, no they dont..  You can purchase liquid antibiotics at most tractor supply and other farm type stores on the shelf.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 00:52 | 794871 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, and they go bad very quickly.  I learned that lesson at the cost of several dead animals (other people buying for their own animals, one of which died in my arms as I was trying to save it).

Antibiotics MUST BE KEPT COLD to remain effective for long periods of time.  Feed shops count on that stuff selling quickly, because they don't want to pay to install and run a fridge.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 10:05 | 795225 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

No not all should be refrigerated, some last for some time at room temperature.

 

Clindamycin Oral Liquid Antibiotic is a prescription antibiotic and is used in the treatment of serious infections such as soft tissue infections, dental infections, and bone infections.

•   • The concentration of Clindamycin Oral Liquid Antibiotic is 25mg/ ml. Tip: Antibiotics can cause diarrhea. If the diarrhea is watery or has blood in it, call your veterinarian. Do not use any medication to stop the diarrhea unless your veterinarian has told you to do so. Dosage: Pet Weight Dosage Dogs: All weights Give 1 to 6 ml for each 10 lbs of pet’s body weight, every 12 hours Cats: All weights Give 1 to 3 ml for each 5 lbs of pet’s body weight once, every 24 hours Horses: Storage: Clindamycin Oral Liquid Antibiotic should be stored at room temperature away from moisture and heat.

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 11:02 | 795350 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

For truly long term use your probably right on liquids how about powdered amoxycillin?  Stores virtually forever if kept cold :)

A dry powder pharmaceutical suspension composition suitable for use as a liquid suspension comprising at least one β-lactam antibiotic in combination with at least one β-lactamase inhibitor, together with a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier, said composition further comprising at least one preservative which is selected from the group consisting of the alkylhyroxybenzoates.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 06:33 | 795101 Seer
Seer's picture

"Forget the madmax stuff; won't happen."

Broad brush- fail!

Most everything that you could contemplate is likely to happen at some point, at some location, at some level/scope, and for some period of time.

It's all about reasonable risk management.  Dismiss rioting and bloodshed and you're likely going to end up being a casualty.  Try to hole up in the mountains with cans of free-dried food(?) and you might also end up a casualty (nature's pretty harsh, hard to field all possible curves).

In the future as physical necessities diminish people will either have enough currency, or not enough.  Given that 2/3 of the world's current population exists on $3/day or less I'd have to figure that the odds are that most of us will be shy what currently passes for currency.  I'm sure that somewhere ammo will be viable currency, other places shoes or whatever.  But... things change/evolve, needs change/evolve.  The only real certainty is that we need food, water, air, and, for most, shelter- not glamorous, not "macho."  I can't compete with water experts.  There are swarms of carpenters (thanks to the housing bubble).  I can't do "air."  So... I opted to go the "food" route and farm (though, in reality, given my age, I'm really only looking to start something to pass off to the next generation).

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:20 | 793622 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

OT

Holy shit, Headline from NetNet via CNBS.com

Krugman: We Can’t Jump Start The Economy With More Spending

Is this a typo? Or is there hope for the PhD crowd to wake up to reality??

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:23 | 793638 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Krugman is a prime example of ideological idiocy - otherwise known as dogma.

He can't see the tree or the forest even if he runs smack dab into the former while hiking through the latter.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 06:36 | 795102 Seer
Seer's picture

And, you were born knowing everything that you currently know?

Point is, people's views DO change.  This isn't in defense of Krugman or anyone in particular, rather, it's in defense of logic.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:26 | 793655 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dang, thats a huge paradigm shift!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:28 | 793666 chet
chet's picture

I think his position is that Congress should become fiscally responsible.  He's not talking about Fed spending.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:33 | 793687 chet
chet's picture

Oops, I was thinking about The Bernank, not Krugman.  That is a big change of tune for Krugman.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:28 | 793668 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

That's just his lead-in for the next segment on CNB$ about the necessity of  a 100% tax increase across the board, to enable him and his *perp skool* buddies to save the ekonomy...

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:20 | 793625 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

John is bright, articulate, and insightful.  I value his research.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:25 | 793650 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

He said with that he'll now return your speedos

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:11 | 793887 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

"goldmiddelfinger" - this is the best moniker ever!  I emailed my brother about it when I first read your thoughts some months ago.  And I always enjoy your comments!  Thanks, Mark

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:14 | 793895 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Fer that marky I'll retuen yar bottel of electra glide. Partley used of curse

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:58 | 794051 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

:)

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:50 | 793786 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Spot on.

Those 2 Liberal party operatives Andrea Mandell-Campbell and Rudyard Griffiths snickering at what he is saying is disgusting.Andrea blew her way to way where she is,congrats.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:26 | 793653 centerline
centerline's picture

Yup.  We will get the full experience.  Deflation, inflation, then hyperinflation, then hyperdeflation.  Lots of fun times coming.

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:40 | 793737 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You never get hyperdeflation, unless you mean all the currency is called, but just a few bills survive and hold great collector value, like a piece of "flying money" from Yuan China that hyperinflated to nothing, but is worth something to a collector today.

Outside of that type of case, there is no such thing as hyperdeflation.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:51 | 793795 centerline
centerline's picture

Right on.  The hyperdeflation side is not a monetary thing.  It is a physical thing.  By then, the current system would be toast.  Even now, the whole subject of -flation is simply peeling away from monetary thoery into a whole new place that has everyone confused.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 06:39 | 795103 Seer
Seer's picture

Junked?  WTF?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:27 | 793659 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It appears that Mountain House, which is one of the better purveyors of freeze dried food and holds over 30 servings and last for 20 years because they are packed with nitrogen rather than oxygen, is now sold out of all #10 cans -link.

Liar liar, pants on fire. There is one #10 can still in stock. And it's my favorite. :>)

Oriental Style Rice &Chicken with Vegetables...#10 Can

Quantity in Basket: None
Code: 30138
Price: $34.80
Shipping Weight: 2.31 pounds
Servings: 10
Serving Size: 1 cup
In Stock

http://www.mtnhse.com/mm5/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Store_Code=M&Product_Code=30138&Category_Code=MHCDL

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:32 | 793683 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

I'm curious about these cans. Is this really good, or tastes like dog food?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:34 | 793698 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Define "good". It's really not that bad at all. Better than McSlop 10 minutes after the heat lamps are shut off.

BTW I just checked back and suddenly it's out of stock. Someone from ZH must have ordered. :>)

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:50 | 794019 seventree
seventree's picture

Way to start a stampede, C D. I hope you got your order in first.The rest of us will have to starve, along with our wee bairns.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 01:12 | 794905 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Your mighty dog Manfred should be good for 6 meals or so. :>D

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 22:06 | 794597 seek
seek's picture

Most of this stuff (at least the mountain house/oregon freeze dry) is pretty tasty. I'd served my ex-gf's kids some of it a few times and they often asked for it in lieu of a real home-cooked dinner or fast food.

Read the reviews, though, there is some nasty stuff out there. I have a eggs and ham omlet MRE from 1984-ish that I'm afraid to be in the same room with. Someday that's going to be really handy for a dare.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:32 | 793686 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Don't you people eat normal food??

WHY DOES IT ALWAYS HAS TO BE WITH VEGETABLES?!!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:49 | 793785 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

... said the raging spud.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 19:33 | 794326 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Is that what that is?  I always thought it was a turd on a treadmill.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 01:13 | 794909 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

It's "Domokun", some sort of Japanese monster/anime.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:51 | 793799 deepsouthdoug
deepsouthdoug's picture

Hey sudden debt - if that's your picture - you need to eat more vegetables!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:53 | 793803 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Because mama always said to eat your vegetables. Ya gonna argue with mama?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:01 | 793828 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

My daddy always said:

"You should only eat food that pisses and takes dumps on the food of Hippies"

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:32 | 793959 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Which explains you.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:12 | 793889 RECISION
RECISION's picture

;-)

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:30 | 793674 dussasr
dussasr's picture

Why does John recommend Mountain House nitrogen packs that are good for 30 years?  These would only be useful if a Mad Max situation developed.  For a run of the mill currency crisis you only need enough food to last for the period of time between when people quit taking the old money and the new money becomes readily available.  This should be about 3-12 months so standard canned goods should be fine - just go out and stock up now. 

Also, a tip from the Mormons - "store what you eat and eat what you store".  This way you are continuously eating and rotating your stored food and don't have to throw it away when it gets old.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:33 | 793696 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right just make sure you have lots of canned food stored, all this 10 years worth of food is pretty much overkill. 20 cases of beef stews and corned beef hash, vegetables and soups or whatever. And if you have to leave which is highly likely you can only carry so much anyway.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:48 | 793779 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

SD-1 I have lot's of your barnyard friends stored on the hoof, a bad ass dog & plenty of lead to keep the wolves @ bay. The large cities will be no place to be if this scenario plays out...

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:02 | 793838 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We've got lots of tasty looking turkeys here too.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:15 | 793907 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

they ain't too good to be in right now.

 

City folks have some shocks coming.

 

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:56 | 794238 trav7777
trav7777's picture

wrong.  Dead wrong.

Stop watching movies.

the people in the country are those who will go without power as there are more voters in the city.

Review Argentina for a real-world economic collapse.  You guys with your zombie apocalypses are hilarious.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 19:41 | 794337 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Trav777 the know it all about everything, I'm off the grid I don't give a shit if the power goes tommrow....

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:06 | 794479 Fagin_Lives
Fagin_Lives's picture

The two situations are completely different.  They also did not have 250 million+ guns in the hands of panicked civilians looking for food after it runs out in the stores in a day.  To think that the government will be able to keep a handle on a hyperinflationary collapse in this country makes me laugh.

Much as it pains me to admit it, my father was right back in the seventies when he was raving about economic issues.  PM's, liquer, and .22 ammo are gonna be the new currency for awhile.  You also might want to consider non-hybrid seeds.  You can still get them cheap on e-bay.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:59 | 793821 centerline
centerline's picture

mmmmm... corned beef hash.  Yup.  Got some cans of that stored away.  I think that stuff has like a 3 year+ shelf life.  The brazilian corned beef cans have a 5 year shelf life.  Not too shabby.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:35 | 793712 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Birch bark tea with annedda tree needles is a woundrous source of stimulation and it wards off scurvy.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:14 | 793899 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

 

Ok, who flagged the guy with the best moniker ever?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:52 | 794226 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Meth cut with crushed chewable vitamin C tablets does the same thing

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:45 | 793766 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Long lasting food is good if you just want to set aside a year's supply and forget about it, without having to mess with it.  It is a good option for some, especially if there is no homemaker.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:49 | 793781 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Mountain house is expensive and not very tasty.  You can eat better learning how to cook long shelf life foods and staples like canned goods, dried fruit, flour, sugar, oats, dried beans, pasta and so on.  If you eat what you store, you will learn how to cook and end up eating very well even if it never gets to shtf/teotwawki.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:07 | 793861 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

exactly   just rotate your stock... Rice...we eat a lot of beans and rice part of our culture..   I keep 150lbs of rice on hand in 25lb bags and just rotate fifo.

same with the dry beans.  I live in the country small three acres.  grow a lot of your own stuff and build a chicken house.  rotate chickens culling and collecting eggs.

 

Keep plenty of salt as well.  It will be useful for trading as well... where does  salt and salary come form the same root word.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 20:09 | 794381 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Bingo on the SALT, added another 20lbs to my stash today.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:18 | 793925 dussasr
dussasr's picture

Exactly.  It's also cheaper and healthier to cook with basic, non processed food every. 

Another tip - freeze your flour for 48 hours when you first buy it.  Then bring it to room temp and seal in an air tight container.  The freezing kills the weevil eggs so you won't have weevils in your stored flour.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 06:50 | 795104 Seer
Seer's picture

Good on the freezing, but bad on the flour...

Wheat berries!  Flour doesn't last that long (esp wheat flour).  And, of course, a grinder (manual- which, reminds me, time to get on with the bike set up to power it with!).

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:56 | 793807 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

store what you eat and eat what you store

+100

Oh and learn how to cook from dry goods fer God's sake. You sorry-assed microwave popcorn brats are in for a serious disappointment 3 weeks into the next meltdown. Nor would it hurt to have a hand saw, an ax, and a splitting maul and learn how to use them. Google up a video on cutting wood. Things might get that bad, can't be too careful. I've done it for years, you can warm yourself (twice) and then with the wood as heat whip up a stew of some tatters, onion and the neighbor's dog. Never had much use for the noisy cur anyway.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:36 | 793972 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Can't say I'm fond of dog or goat meat..., cashew kitty, on the other hand...

Wouldn't bother with rattle snake.  Tastes like chicken, and a bit more troublesome.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:05 | 794073 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

There's nay much meat on a cat. Mostly knives and steel cable. A nice pitbull on the other paw, them's good eats.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:16 | 794113 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

good advice. Also consider planting perennial vegetables and vigorous but nutritious berries and fruit. Permaculture is the only permanent system and avoids the oil fertilizer collapse. 

http://discountpermaculture.com/agora.cgi?cart_id=3466855.19891*IC0AX03466855.19891

http://perennialvegetables.org/

The greater diversity, the longer season source to eat and vigorous disease and pest resistance

http://www.pfaf.org/user/default.aspx

also learn to harvest seed

http://www.northerngardening.com/LSseedsavg.htm

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:33 | 793688 Zon
Zon's picture

Not going to happen. the only SHTF that will happen is peak oil, which will happen but could be very long till we see major oil shortages. The bankers are so powerful they have control over the dollar so there is no way they will allow it to hyperinflate, what will happen is banks will fail again and they will get bailed out, rinse repeat. Its the same crap we are going to see for a while. I hate it, im sure you hate it also, but they got us by the balls. I sometimes wish for a huge collapse cause it would wipe out the banking system but ive waited long enough to be able to know that it will never happen.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:49 | 793782 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

There are economic laws no one can escape.

I highly doubt the solvency of the taxpayer will be sufficient to cover hundreds of trillions in losses.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:19 | 794123 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

peak oil is here and the effects will accelerate soon. The bankers are out of control not in it. They can not fight math.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:33 | 793694 toathis
toathis's picture

The Crash/Event/Coup already freaking happened, the year was 2008! Get over it!

nothing else is coming. This is IT! the new normal.

"No Double-Dip", you folks were DEAD WRONG! The CNBC babes, Buffet and Geithner smoked you!

The dollar will continue to be the reserve currency of the world. DEAL WITH IT!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:35 | 793704 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Toothless back with his same old BS post he's been putting up for months. 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:42 | 793745 toathis
toathis's picture

I read every posting that attains more than 30 comments and have been doing so for the past year.

You people keep screaming, but no one is listening. Just keep dooming. Nothing ever happens.

I promise you- NO HYPER-INFLATION!

Gold will collapse. People are starved for Cash!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:48 | 793774 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Mmmm...fresh meat.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:54 | 793805 toathis
toathis's picture

I have a Phd in economics and have been trading the capital markets for the better part of 30 years, I know what is coming> nothing.

2008 was a ONCE IN A LIFETIME event. We will not see anything else like that in our lifetime. I promise

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:58 | 793810 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Economics. Pah! You need a lesson in thermodynamics.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:04 | 793850 toathis
toathis's picture

peak Oil is a lie. If it were true, Oil would be 5 dollars a gallon by now- at least (and stay there)

If we hit the "peak" in the late 70s/early 80s, the price structuring wouldn't have changed. Oil remains quite volitale along with just about every other commodity.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:16 | 793912 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

hee hee

Seasons don't fear the reaper;

Nor do the wind, the sun and the rain;

We can be like they are;

Don't fear the reaper.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpy_pYXSpPA

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:18 | 793924 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

then why, toathis, are you wasting your time with us meatheads? wouldn't your time be better spent with the beautiful people with phd's like bernanke and other fed phd's.

 

btw: my hunch is that you don't have a phd. would a phd really write as you do in such a juvenile fashion. you write more like a spoiled brat with $1000.00 to your name rather than a seasoned vet and student of financial history.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:30 | 794152 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:34 | 794170 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

(this is for toathis) (is something wrong with the site, my comments are slotting in strange spots)

wow, how does the $5 dollar rule (especially the part about "staying there") have anything to do with geological reality and the fact that it is like no other commodity? 

I'm glad you've assured us hyperinflation won't happen. Now I can sleep

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:59 | 794251 trav7777
trav7777's picture

oil is priced in gallons?  Did I miss something?

I got unfortunate news for you man, every well and field in history has eventually peaked then declined.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 19:05 | 794268 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Doesn't Krugman have one of those too?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:06 | 793854 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

So, admitting there is a slow recovery, and admitting the Ponzi is saved, what do you think will happen when rates are raised, and perpetual bailouts dropped?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:06 | 793864 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You want to give me a guarantee?  I'll tell you what.  You send me a gold coin, and I'll sent you ten dollars.  In a year, we'll see who is better off.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:06 | 793866 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Did you go to Princeton to get your Phd too? If so your education is likely as worthless as your promise.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:14 | 793894 toathis
toathis's picture

What Ben has/is doing is working! easy to critize when you aren't behind the balance sheets.

I don't know what more needs to be said... SLAMMING the breaks on the collapse of the world's largest economy, world's reserve currency, world's mightiest military power... Stopped a Deflationary Depression dead in its tracks!

Go ahead and junk. More like Time's Man of the Century. History books have already been written. He won. Get used to higher taxes. No "reset" is coming

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:17 | 793916 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Cocaine is a helluva drug.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:22 | 793936 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

you sound a little chapped. I recommend some baby oil and mommie to change your diapers.

if you scream a little louder someone may hear you.

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:23 | 793941 oogs66
oogs66's picture

A PhD in economics. What does that mean? That you know models that don't actually predict what they are supposed to, than the rest of us? I agree we would be worse today if he hadn't thrown money at the situation. The real question is will we be better off in 2 years or 5 years as a result? No one knows and no one will be able to back test. I suspect easing near term pain is going to cause much higher longer term pain. Ben is all in. Failure big or small I failure. He knows it. He throwing everything he can so a least history won't say he didn't try. That's all this is - Gus fear that history will say he didn't try. I suspect he will be hate long after dick Gaul I just a rotting corpse no one remembers

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:26 | 793948 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

toathis (which reads in Latin non compos mentis),

'Working' in the way insanity works: since 1913 the dollar has lost over 98% of its purchasing power. 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:37 | 793976 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

The only thing our keeps our irredeemable currency spending is the fact that it is backed by bombs, bullets, and military invasions when foreign nations try to resist becoming our vassal or don't want to join the Ponzi scheme. That's how your hero Bernake keeps the game going. I wouldn't call it a winning either. I'd call it fixing a game so you never lose and if you do lose you change the rules and if then people don't want to play with you any more you kill them so they loose with you. Sounds like a great game to play if you are the host but not fun if you are a forced participant.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:50 | 794023 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The reserve currency status/dollar hememony/network externality/global dollar denominated debt/oil/letters of credit for global trade/global finance will insure we do not go through hyperinflation.

The global web makes extraction from this impossible for the rest of the world. They all have borrowed in dollars.Look how much the EU borrowed via swap lines 3-4 trillion during the crisis.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:11 | 794096 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

And when China's economy exceeds the US in size, then borrow yuan more for the Gipper?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:34 | 794168 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

As soon as she can swap out the 1 quadrillion of dollars/derivative positions floating around the globe ....

Maybe another 10-20 years.

The per capita of 6-7,000 per year for chin-six-pack, insures this snail like process will take a long, long time..

Lets see her de-peg all the yuan loans(banks) at suppressed rates ... Lol' On top of all the NPL's.

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:54 | 794231 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

She doesn't need to swap out 1 quadrillion dollars to apply pressure.  And ten years is brief.  Y2K - only yesterday. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 01:18 | 794915 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Your a fucking moron, you are wrong, go to borders and pick up a book this weekend, read it real slow, anything will help. Cooking, Flowers ?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 00:48 | 794829 greenbear
greenbear's picture

In the twinkle of an eye- poof!! 

 

Reset. 

 

At that point what matters is who has the stuff that can make the stuff that people actually want and need and who is afforded the freedom and liberty, not in word but in deed, to make this stuff?  And who is under a relatively lawful and who is under an absolute lawless state?  America is freedom and liberty in name only. These qualities, along with the economic benefits that always accompany them, are moving east and have been for some time. 

 

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:45 | 794002 BlackThought
BlackThought's picture

screw you babybop, go back to marketwatch you annoying prick!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:47 | 794005 BlackThought
BlackThought's picture

u don't belong here babybop. u are delusional like Obama!

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:15 | 794109 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 One thing more needs to be said; "brakes" is not spelled breaks. You're the only Phd. in the world who is semi-literate. Congratulations.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:40 | 794199 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

toathis, you are exactly the kind of person I expect to find digging in my garden by the moonlight.. buck or birdshot which do you prefer ?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:30 | 793956 tickhound
tickhound's picture

I swear I read the same thing in 2001 by some phd nutjob attempting to trump all those with a bs and some common sense. 30 years of missing "what's coming" but full of pompous prognostications for hindsight and the status quo... The disclaimer is always the same... claim the "event" as once in a lifetime and hold it as self evident. Bush league and nothing I can't get from msm.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:51 | 794026 ronin12
ronin12's picture

+1

PhD and no common sense is a dangerous combination.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 23:21 | 794733 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Paul, Paul K is that you Paul?  Did they kick you off your own site?  I hear you had to shut down your comment section..

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:01 | 793835 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Doesn't matter if our people are starved for cash. The world doesn't want our dollars anymore.  We import most our goods... especially oil. What do you think will happen when foreigners won't take our monopoly money for real goods? Who cares if the proles don't have cash. The proles don't factor into this equation. The Ponzi scheme has moved past a national issue a long time ago. Think Globaly. Most of the world's population don't live here so the only thing a dollar is to them is if it will buy oil on the open market. If not. It's worthless.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:47 | 794008 ronin12
ronin12's picture

"Nothing ever happens".

Are you f*ing kidding me? Plenty has been "happening".

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:00 | 794059 Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

BabyBop from MarketWatch is that you? You should go back to MW. They removed the 'Thumbs Down' option. Now you can only praise yourself.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:42 | 793744 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Bingo, ding, ding, ding .... Give that man 10 suppressed dollars.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:51 | 793796 moofph
moofph's picture

..."The CNBC babes"...are you referring to men or women or the ones in between because to me they all look as used and wrinkled as a '76 two dollar bill...but probably smell the same...either way, when one considers the debt burden we all share, both private and gov., it remains to be seen...and we still haven't heard the fat lady singing...personally, i think she is in the limo making her way to the theatre wearing silver slippers while reading ZH.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:56 | 794234 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Ever seen what happens when trillions of derivatives actually trigger?  

No one else has either (yet)

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 19:12 | 794281 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Yeah, I heard that song before:

"Real Estate values will never go down, after all they are not making any more land"

" $700oz gold is a bubble. After all you cant eat gold."

"The Fed will not monetize the debt" 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 06:54 | 795107 Seer
Seer's picture

And how logical would it be to bet you on this?  I mean, if I'm right (which will be the case), your sorry ass won't be around to collect from.

Thanks for playing! (and for being future compost!)

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:37 | 793715 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

If the shit hits the fan, there should be no worry about the food supply.

There will be lots of food everywhere.

Did you know the Carib Indians before the arrival of Columbus invented the barbecue spit?

They enjoyed a type of meat that was pretty tuff by today's corn fed beef standards, and needed a barbecue spit just to help cook the meat.

In fact, the Carib Inidans really loved their fellow man.

They were cannibals.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:37 | 793723 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Would that be an electric fan or the Japnaese version?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:41 | 793741 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The woods around my house are teeming with turkey, deer, wild pigs...plenty of food and its the way everyone ate 100 years ago anyway. 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:49 | 793777 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

You live in Surniam also? Do you know a guy named Paco?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:04 | 793852 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Surniam, thats near Buffalo?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:17 | 793914 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

thars so many tarkeys hear bouts tha herds attack ye wit out warnin. ya have to beet tha varmits offa ye sef wit stick n stone

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:15 | 793904 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Location ?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:17 | 793920 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

The real estate broker's credo

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:25 | 793940 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Nope, I just like the woods. Northern Wisconsin is great, IMO. You can score 20 acres(all oaktrees/woods) for $40,000. I already have my spot picked out, not going to rush into anything yet but maybe next year. A getaway from Chicago.

Then a few years later a nice little cabin.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:11 | 794105 seventree
seventree's picture

Score another one for the dog: The woods around my house are teeming with turkey, deer, wild pigs... I'm about 50 miles north of Nashville, and it's not uncommon to see half a dozen wild turkeys sharing the front lot with 2 or 3 deer. I could pot one from my front porch. 'Course it would be harder if the neighbors started thinning them out, but still far from impossible.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:07 | 794401 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

-

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 06:58 | 795109 Seer
Seer's picture

Deer all over on my property...  But... the majority of western "civilization" couldn't recognize a live turkey if they saw one, let alone know how to catch/kill and process one...

Got skills?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:58 | 793816 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Long Pork, the other white meat!

It is true. The cannibals say we taste just like hogs.

It makes sense, actually, given that we're so close, genetically speaking.

To those that bristle at this idea, do even basic research. Pigs and humans are very closely related.

mmmmm...B-B-Q.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:13 | 793892 owensdrillin
owensdrillin's picture

They say the French taste like chicken.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 21:49 | 794569 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

''It is very salty, even more salty than leopard meat."

Idi Amin

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:59 | 793817 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Don't ever talk to a puma about eating people. Not this close to lunch.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:25 | 793943 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Mmmmm! Duck Satay. And I didn't have to go in the water to get it.

Carnivore with a credit card. Life is good.

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:39 | 793727 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

I'm sure this won't make me any friends, BUT, let's be fair to the Fed Chairman when he says he is 100% confident that he can stop inflation.  He can.  He could jam interest rates overnight to 50%, or whatever.  That would crush inflation instantly, and the economy too.  The question is, does he have the balls to do it? (Probably not.)

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:44 | 793756 jimgcpa
jimgcpa's picture

I can stop inflation too.  Don't buy anything.

 

 

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:50 | 793790 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Your money isn't what matters in hyperinflation.  It's the money that is pouring out of the printing press into the hands of government workers and their bankster cronies.  That is the money that bids everything up.  

What do you people think?  That people just wake up one day and decide that a cup of coffee is all that their life savings is worth?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 07:03 | 795110 Seer
Seer's picture

"What do you people think?  That people just wake up one day and decide that a cup of coffee is all that their life savings is worth?"

If the amount of currency that you have is depleted through deflation (which means less in circulation), then perhaps people's life savings ARE only worth a cup of coffee?

This shit is all meaningless.  It's overshoot.  The Fed, bankers, the govt, it's out of their control.  Mother Nature is taking over now...

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:51 | 793797 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

100% sure? lol

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:45 | 793765 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

Williams is a must-listen... even Jim Sinclair refers to him often.  But Big John is apparently eating well lately and ballooning up quite nicely.  In fact, i hear he even upstaged Underdog at the Macy's parade this year.  Rumor is when its windy he's hard to control though.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 03:02 | 795004 rassillon
rassillon's picture

Williams is the next bubble. 

Tech Bubble / Housing Bubble / Credit Bubble / John Bubble

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 07:12 | 795114 Seer
Seer's picture

I know that it's all in fun, but...  Maybe the guy's on Prednisone? (http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/steroids/HQ01431)

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 16:46 | 793769 oogs66
oogs66's picture

History will repeat itself. For the secod time America will be conquered by foreigners giving some wampum, trinkets and baubles and making the natives happy enough that they don't even realize they are being taken over til it's too late Maybe it's something in th water

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:01 | 793826 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

When does France claim MERS fucked up the Louisiana Purchase, and demand title and possession back?

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 17:03 | 793845 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Well played.

Thu, 12/09/2010 - 18:58 | 794245 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

great analogy ...all the way down to the infected blankets of security

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