John Williams Warns Of "Severe And Violent Sell-Off In Stocks"

Tyler Durden's picture

John Williams utters his most ruthless words of condemnation not only toward the Fed, but to everyone who is stupid enough to be chasing returns in the face of what is a hyperinflationary collapse.

Euphoric Inflation Insanity. Buying U.S. stocks because the Fed says it will proactively debase the U.S. dollar is like sitting on the beach in order to get a great view of an incoming tsunami. Any pleasure so derived should be short-lived, when the terror of underlying reality quickly takes hold.

If one were to view movement in the price of gold as a surrogate for anticipated inflation, for example, the issues begin to come into focus. Consider that last night's (October 14th) respective S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite closing levels were up by 7.5%, 10.8%, 12.1% from a year ago, but the price of gold was up by 29.6% in the same period. Relative to gold, which tends to hold its purchasing power over time -- albeit sometimes in an anticipatory manner -- the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite have declined respectively by 22.1%, 18.8% and 17.5% year-to-year. This is against the prospective inflation environment being discounted by the gold market.

While stock prices do tend to rise in an inflationary environment -- where revenues and profits are inflated -- rising stock prices do not always stay ahead of inflation. On a constant-dollar or real, inflation-adjusted basis, stocks go through bull and bear markets, just as they do otherwise. If prices do not stay ahead of inflation, investors lose value in terms of the purchasing power of their assets. The equity markets may rally in the upcoming inflation, but the systemic implications and current gold behavior suggest that the circumstance will not give investors a positive real return, as discussed in the Hyperinflation Special Report.

Given the current systemic distortions and extreme irrationality in the equity markets, a severe and violent sell-off in stocks would not be a shock, and it could come with minimal, if any, warning. It also might be coincident with a U.S. dollar-selling panic.

There is particular risk of recent dollar selling -- which has been closing in on historic lows -- turning into an outright dollar-dumping panic, which not only would roil the domestic U.S. markets, but also would set the stage for a rapid acceleration of domestic consumer inflation. Irrespective of any near-term market volatility, gold and silver, as well as the stronger currencies, remain the best long-term liquid hedges against loss in purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.

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We sympathize with John's sentiment, but who cares about risk? The Fed will never let anything drop in price ever again. It is now far too late to prevent the biggest bubble in the history of the world, and its subsequent collapse.

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goldmiddelfinger's picture

Tell me when the rubber hits the road. Meanwhile I'm collecting hundred dollar nasdaq names.



tunaman4u2's picture

That puts AAPL at what?

Its amazing that we NEED QE2 for this great depression but have enough cash to pay for internet on Iphone, Ipad & Imac.


traderjoe's picture

Besides strategic defaulters freeing up cash by not paying their mortgage, there is some suspicion that consumers are going on one last credit splurge before they default on their credit cards. TD had an article on it a few weeks ago...

flacon's picture

How do I post pictures on ZeroHedge? I see RobotTrader posting all sorts of pics of pin up girls but pics I want to post (serious pics) never show up. 

tmosley's picture

Only contributors can post pictures.  You'll have to settle for links.

Rusty Shorts's picture

Jesus Christ people, at least we still have Oksana, harden the fuck up already!'s picture

the naughty little school girl look, works for you huh, shorts?

New_Meat's picture

d o e s n ' t  m a k e  h i m  a  b a d  p e r s o n.

-- Ned

william.smith61's picture

Fuel Injector my toilet feed is slowed down by the large material deposited whenever I 'download' bran muffins. And I don't have the time to get off the toilet, walk over (with my pants at my ankles) and get the plunger. I hired this guy to set up my toilet feed and now I'm going to fire him because he put the plunger too far away to reach!


Minion's picture

QE2 just keeps the US Govt from defaulting - that's the point. US Gov gets the fresh printings via bond purchases.  The moment a bond sale fails and interest rates go up, it's game over for USA Inc. 

cbaba's picture

Bond sales cannot fail. FED is selling to prime dealers where they are the owner of the FED. Its a rigged game, they keep interest rates low, give money from back door and they buy bonds from FED, that's the way they can decrease the interest to hypothetical levels. If there is a new sucker planning to buy a bond, Fed sells it with the same low rate they created artificially. If they see less suckers coming they will eventually increase the interest but bond auctions will never fail as the way you imagine..

Minion's picture

It seems like you mean that FED will always monetize when bonds don't have enough bidders, via PD's, thereby choosing the slow route to hyperinflation vs. the quick route.  :D

Landrew's picture

When you have to print the money to fill the subscription of any auction that is one of the definitions of a FAILED AUCTION!

Michael Victory's picture

Speaking of money printing..

This month I interviewed another Von Mises Austrian, Robert Murphy.
The primary topic of our conversation: Sound Money & AU

Link to the interview:


i-dog's picture

Excellent interview. Thanks. I really liked his dispassionate analyses ... and his "They have no exit strategy! [to all the printing] ... other than the IMF offering a [pseudo-?] gold-backed replacement".

DrStrangelove's picture

no, this only means a failed auction will happen if the game riggers (fed owners) care to let it happen, trust me the world ablidge.

deez nutz's picture


you got to have the "i"s to go along with all those new subprime GM vehicles hitting the road. 

Call it the "i-onstar" generation.

tunaman4u2's picture

That puts AAPL at what?

Its amazing that we NEED QE2 for this great depression but have enough cash to pay for internet on Iphone, Ipad & Imac.

snowball777's picture

The more people like Harry Wanger there are, the less Apple needs people to actually buy their products, eh wot?

HarryWanger's picture

I don't own any AAPL right now. I sold at 289, got lucky enough on the Cook rumour to buy again at 275 and sold at 290. I only have precious metals right now. 

I repeat, if somehow Apple doesn't knock it out of the park again, you might see this sharp sell off described here on Tuesday. But, seeing how AAPL is TBTF, I can't see how that would happen. 

espirit's picture

Harry- As part of the team, you weren't supposed to sell AAPL until it hit 310, and put the profit into PM's to keep them pumped. Now what are we going to do?

Repeat, I repeat do not sell GOOG yet until gold is set for a major - MAJOR correction!

deez nutz's picture


you got to have the "i"s to go along with all those new subprime GM vehicles hitting the road. 

Call it the "i-onstar" generation.

desk-jockey's picture

for REAL. sorry, but been hearing the same shpiel here day...after day...after day...after day. Yep, WE GET IT. You understand fundamentals. Fundies are EXSTINCT. Y'all can't get a grip on the wholly fake bullshiat of today?!? So yeah - it's gonna collapse. UNLESS IT DOESNT because it is RIGGED. /out, been out, MAD staying thr F out....

desk-jockey's picture

ohhh you're shaking your tiny fist at me wuth your junks. wahhhh!!!! so, exactly how is what i said wrong? i love ZH. have been here since it was a wee blog. have mad respect fir the folks brave enough to create and maintain this place. for the rest of y'all? convince me there is ANY reason to believe it's ANYTHING but bullsit. THEN i will understand or at least TRY to understand how any of you can still make calls one way or the other. It's an ASS RAPING SHAM.

WaterWings's picture

Plus one, dude.

I'm pickin' up what you're puttin' down.

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

I'll unjunk ya

Coz i kinda agree - the system is fkd, endemically corrupt and teetering on the edge of oblivion. But i was waiting years longer for the derivatives thing to blow up than i first thought, and it makes me think that many on ZH underestimate the power of vested interests to prolong the bullshit. I also think that the inflationary effect of QE is a much different prospect for a global fiat currency than for , say, the economically quarantined (by equivalent) weimar replublic. The whole world can soak up the 'too much money chasing to few goods' precursory dynamic.


I WANT it all to collapse tomorrow. I just think it will take another few years to really play out in full

zaknick's picture

I agree it might take years for the murderous regime to collapse but it's fun to gleefully cheer on while spectating their demise in real time. I also happen to know for a fact that, with or without oil, America will be a much healthier (spiritually) and all around better place without the current thugs in power and their completely (unConstitutional) centralized form of coercion, er I mean governance. So will the world.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I'm rereading Gibbons 'Fall of the Roman Empire'... It's amazing how long a totally rotten, discredited empire can continue on sheer momentum.

And the Roman's did not have the benefit of a world reserve currency.

If America follows a similar path as Rome the next steps are a string of outright kings/dictators sans elections and then many small and large revolts of the US military, total lack of moral courage by citizens, followed by economic demands (in gold) by potential invading bands from abroad.

Some of these events are happening now, some to come, and it all takes time to play out.

I have no clue how long it will take the US to unravel. Rome, from the time of the end of the republic to the end of the last dictator took several hundred years. I suspect it will happen much faster in the US because of world's debt based fiat currency system and 'innovative financial products'.

In addition, Rome had the benefit of an occasional great leader during it's emporer period...we, otoh, have had a string of total fuck ups and I see no chance of a real leader coming to power in the US unless the two party system loses it's strangle hold on government and the banking cartel is busted up...unlikely without a significant uprising of the people.

Reading Gibbons now vs reading Gibbons when I was in my twenties...What a dramaticly different take I have on Roman history now. Eeriely similar to what I see happening daily in the US.

Drachma's picture

Pull yourself together man. If I had a rubber hose...

Minion's picture



Since I presume you can trade like you type (Mad Quik, Yo) why not daytrade long and enjoy the monetization?  You should be able to get out if it starts to crack, with those skillz.

chopper read's picture

equivalent to picking up dimes in front of a steamroller.  

...worked for Long Term Capital Management, until it didn't.  

Saxxon's picture

The event we shorts are looking for may be AAPL rolling over on their unquestionably, assuredly greatest best beat ever earnings after Monday close. 

So wonderful their Q3 and their guidance will be, exceeding even the most sanguine expectation and raining easy money on their legions of faithful holders and supporting the SPY and NAS at nosebleed levels.

AAPL, the sure thing.

sysin3's picture

Endgame, bitchez.   But the timing is soo problematical.

midtowng's picture

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

caramel55's picture

Until the market becomes 'rational', if ever, I'm out.  

FEDbuster's picture

People say I'm crazy doing what I'm doing,
Well they give me all kinds of warnings to save me from ruin,
When I say that I'm o.k. they look at me kind of strange,
Surely your not happy now you no longer play the game...

John Lenon, Watching the Wheels

chopper read's picture

i'm just sitting here watching the wheels go round 'n round (in gold).  I really love to watch them go (in gold).  

Fred Hayek's picture

And that man KNEW irrational.

SWRichmond's picture

But the timing is soo problematical.


redpill's picture

Does this mean buy AAPL?

Minion's picture

Are the banksters buying AAPL?  :D

Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Yes it certainly looks like it's going to crash any minute......anyone care to measure the angle of ascent from 3.30 onwards -about 89.999 degrees?