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John Williams Warns Of "Severe And Violent Sell-Off In Stocks"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

John Williams utters his most ruthless words of condemnation not only toward the Fed, but to everyone who is stupid enough to be chasing returns in the face of what is a hyperinflationary collapse.

Euphoric Inflation Insanity. Buying U.S. stocks because the Fed says it will proactively debase the U.S. dollar is like sitting on the beach in order to get a great view of an incoming tsunami. Any pleasure so derived should be short-lived, when the terror of underlying reality quickly takes hold.

If one were to view movement in the price of gold as a surrogate for anticipated inflation, for example, the issues begin to come into focus. Consider that last night's (October 14th) respective S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite closing levels were up by 7.5%, 10.8%, 12.1% from a year ago, but the price of gold was up by 29.6% in the same period. Relative to gold, which tends to hold its purchasing power over time -- albeit sometimes in an anticipatory manner -- the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite have declined respectively by 22.1%, 18.8% and 17.5% year-to-year. This is against the prospective inflation environment being discounted by the gold market.

While stock prices do tend to rise in an inflationary environment -- where revenues and profits are inflated -- rising stock prices do not always stay ahead of inflation. On a constant-dollar or real, inflation-adjusted basis, stocks go through bull and bear markets, just as they do otherwise. If prices do not stay ahead of inflation, investors lose value in terms of the purchasing power of their assets. The equity markets may rally in the upcoming inflation, but the systemic implications and current gold behavior suggest that the circumstance will not give investors a positive real return, as discussed in the Hyperinflation Special Report.

Given the current systemic distortions and extreme irrationality in the equity markets, a severe and violent sell-off in stocks would not be a shock, and it could come with minimal, if any, warning. It also might be coincident with a U.S. dollar-selling panic.

There is particular risk of recent dollar selling -- which has been closing in on historic lows -- turning into an outright dollar-dumping panic, which not only would roil the domestic U.S. markets, but also would set the stage for a rapid acceleration of domestic consumer inflation. Irrespective of any near-term market volatility, gold and silver, as well as the stronger currencies, remain the best long-term liquid hedges against loss in purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.

For more, click here

We sympathize with John's sentiment, but who cares about risk? The Fed will never let anything drop in price ever again. It is now far too late to prevent the biggest bubble in the history of the world, and its subsequent collapse.

 

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Sat, 10/16/2010 - 16:55 | 655515 SecretGoldfish
SecretGoldfish's picture

hey OldTrooper . . . i was in the 'oh-eight' as well . . .

 

fury from the sky!

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 00:38 | 655980 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Nice!  I was there from 82 to 86 - B Co.

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 05:54 | 656208 SecretGoldfish
SecretGoldfish's picture

small world, we must know some people.  maybe each other.  B Co. as well, 1st PLT., 86-89 (we became the 505 for the last few years).

 

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 10:37 | 656416 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

The switch to the 505 happened a day or two before I ETSed.  Never did change my flash, though.  Spent most of my time in 2nd PLT - with a brief stint in mortar platoon and a few months as the NBC NCO.

Nice to run into an old comrad!

Mon, 10/18/2010 - 06:10 | 657832 SecretGoldfish
SecretGoldfish's picture

sounds familiar . . . does your last name start with 'k' . . ?  maybe not, that was a long time ago now. 

had a few buddies in 2nd and weapons PLT, but mainly hung with the guys in 1st.  pallister, masloski, stokes, dindy, hunt, roka, sometimes abrahamson.  kansky over in 2nd or 3rd.  man, that was a long time back now.  you ARE an old trooper indeed.

hope your years have been good ones. 

Mon, 10/18/2010 - 22:45 | 660221 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

You may have known me as 'ax-man'.  We are talking 2/508 right?  Just occurred to me that there's more than one!

The years have been kind - I've had two businesses, two wives and two kids.  You're not a young trooper anymore either, friend!

Did you know Jimmy Latremouille or Jeff Karn in mortar platoon?

Mon, 10/18/2010 - 23:53 | 660367 chopper read
chopper read's picture

you fellas kick ass.  best wishes to you both. 

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 16:57 | 655517 SecretGoldfish
SecretGoldfish's picture

dbl pst

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:26 | 654498 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Health care law requires a 1099 to sell gold or silver , is that true? Govt will know exactly what you got!!

The government taxes anything and everything so should we just walk around naked or what?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:33 | 654091 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

I am not too cynical about SLV - it has done well for me (I know the usual caveats about holding the types of GLD, SLV, UNG though)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:27 | 654369 flacon
flacon's picture

Nothing wrong with it as a "trade" but certainly not as a "buy-and-hold". SLV will collapse about the same time as the COMEX does. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:13 | 654727 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Honest question here: Why is it people insist on correlation to the dollar if the dollar tanks and no one accepts it? 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:22 | 654740 flacon
flacon's picture

Because it's a paradigm we were born with. Everything measured in the fake dollar. It's hard for our minds to switch and to measure things to gold and silver. 

 

 

By the way, I am measuring all my stocks according to the penultimate metal SILVER. If they aren't performing better than silver I consider myself to have LOST wealth. But of course things come and go in waves, so we'll see about mining stocks and agriculture stocks. At the moment though, owning PHYSICAL SILVER IS THE BEST PLAY OUT THERE. 

 

SILVER BEATS ALL ASSETS IN THE PAST MONTH! ALLLLLLLL EVERY ONE OF THEM!

 

http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=13

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:27 | 654837 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I can't argue with that assertion. But when the paradigm simply no longer exists by virtue of the dollar being worthless, don't you think people will go to more a "scale" based transaction again? 5grams of gold gets you xyz.. sorry no dollars accepted here.. your wheelbarrow is worth more.. ;)

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 07:27 | 654923 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

If the dollar collapses it will certainly be replaced by something. That something will probably be gold/silver after another fiat currency is tried and no one wants it.

It took many years for the US to be weaned from gold into worthless paper currency. The cycle will restart with gold/silver, then partially backed fiat, then full fiat, then fiat collapse.

It takes the intervening generations to forget that the fucking bankers/gov robbed their great grandfathers. So the generations of today do not remember what real money was like...and how difficult credit was to gain access to.

They will learn...again.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:35 | 653892 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


There is general consensus now that derivatives have had a major impact on
the structure of the gold market and ergo, the behaviour in the price, in a way
that has not been seen in other commodities or financial instruments.
Why
has the gold experience been unique? The explanation is due to a number of
factors. The market itself is very small relative to currencies, and any
structural change imposed on it had an exaggerated effect. But more
importantly, gold remains a contango market, exhibiting a positive carry.
Contrast this to base metals and the platinum group metals which can and do
lapse into periods of deep and prolonged backwardation; certainly long
enough to dramatically influence price risk management decisions. By

remaining in perpetual contango2, gold producers could rely on the positive

carry in a way that the mining communities of other commodities could not.
This basic premise then influenced the way the use of gold derivatives
evolved.

This explanation begs the question: what is it about the gold market that
ensures a virtually permanent contango? The answer lies in the historical
purchases and holding of gold on the part of the central banks back in the
days of the gold standard. While pertinent when the Dollar and Sterling were
backed by gold, these holdings become less and less appropriate in modern
day financial management of reserves and currencies. The gold overhang,
held inertly, failed to accrue a return, and non-interest bearing assets no
longer have a place in current portfolio management theory.
Thus it turned out that, to earn its keep, these gold reserves were gradually
mobilised. The presence of this lending provided the liquidity necessary for
this existence and execution of price risk management products. Without
liquidity, the bullion dealing community would not have been able to execute
the transactions and hence they would have been render rather useless
unmarketable products. In short, the central banks as a source of this liquidity
became a key factor in evolution of the gold market.

Now none of this mobilisation of Official gold would have been encouraged if
there had not been a willing borrower of the metal on the other side of the
liquidity equation. Enter the mining companies, all greatly excited by the
1979/80 price rally to the magical $850 level, and hence flush with exploration
money.

The 1980s also saw the advent of cost-effective heap-leach technology, which
improved dramatically the economics of mining relative low-grade shallow ore
deposits. The combination of these factors resulted in the ballooning of gold
output in Canada, the USA and Australia.

 Note the marked increase in output from North
America and Australia during the 1980s. All this increased production, as it
rolled off the drawing board and into d’ore trucks, required project financing.
At that stage, US Dollar interest rates were comparatively high. The
differential between the cost of borrowing dollars and borrowing gold was
wide enough to convince the miners of the wisdom of the gold loan – the
original prototype derivative product. The miners borrowed gold from a bullion
bank, sold it to raise capital with the intention of paying it back through future
production from the developed mine.

 

The Impact of Derivatives on the Gold Market

Paper Prepared for
The ABARE Conference, Canberra, March 2002

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:52 | 653965 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya and the miners are all going to pay it back. Just as soon as the Military kills those pesky people in afghanistan. That nobody has ever been able to kill off. Ever in the history of the world.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:10 | 653976 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

My bud is swamped by cat work. The mining div. is rolling, orders through the roof... more debt for those miners, gold extraction very pricey...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:28 | 654247 cossack55
cossack55's picture

And now that tech has proven that it can rescue miners from 2500', Deeper and Faster will be the new rallying cry.  Watch the canaries.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:38 | 654515 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Yep, depending on which Company, it's now in excess of $500.00 oz to get it up, out, and deliverable.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:15 | 654603 Minion
Minion's picture

One of the guys I subscribe to, who has some seriously wealthy followers (as in billionaires) thinks the mining stocks hold huge upside potential in the future, if you pick the right one.  But he says there are also a lot of losing miners out there.  Due diligence is very important in this area..... although an index like GDXJ looks to be a safe bet.  It took off like an F-15 during POMO ...  +60% in under three months!

gracelandupdates.com

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:42 | 654776 prophet
prophet's picture

Grabbed 30P of that move on a position trade but am thinking about adding it as a 2P core holding.

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 23:15 | 655872 surfsup
surfsup's picture

How does one get hyperinflation when there are several times the paper (derivatives) to actual money in existence?   When the "representational/speculative" paper unwinds it might look a lot like 2008.   At some point all that "paper of derivative value" will scoot back and seek out dollars to honor it and the black hole that opened up in 2008 will come roaring back.  Fed may just be trying to "pad" that "inevitability" in the time they have left before that fractal of the shadow comes into light?   Remember AIG?  No "real" dollars back of the paper?  In an odd way its like an artificial boost to the fiat currency because the instant and massive demand for dollars actually keeps them from devaluing into the ground.  Its like a 2nd layer of FIAT -- one on top of the other.    More and more its looking like a mass of dollars are going to be taken out of existence by some unexpected event -- more so -- the actual dollars in existence will be chasing these phantom derivatives...   Again, just look at Fall 2008 charts to get an idea about how such a thing plays out...    Its not like the QE money is hitting the general economy so hyperinflation just seems like a momentary wave within a larger wave.   The haircut the actual economy took in 08 was around 30%.   That has NOT returned.  Again, once one of these paper games blows up it will create a momentary demand for dollars which will get sucked out of the general economy again -- like 2008.    

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:22 | 653824 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

The reason why inflation will be bad for stocks is that wages have and will remain static. This is the crux that so many people are missing. If wages are static during a period of inflation the same amount of income can chase fewer and fewer products. It's that simple. Why doesn't Wall Street get this?

Any benefit stocks will see will soon get cut down by falling earning. Even exporters will suffer as raw materials that go into those exports rise in price. Imagine all the commodities that go into a John Deere tractor or Boeing aircraft. Image all the energy it takes to refine and ship the aluminum to make a plane. The most likely scenario for stocks is get a quick pump until about March and then to flat line as US consumers return to their bunkers with only the bare essentials. I don't think the market will crash because there is simply no way they could in a hyper-inflationary environment. Lowering revenues will be offset by the POMO penis pump.

 

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:24 | 653868 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Wall Street gets it alright.  Just as all of today's fedual lords get it. 

I graduated HS in 02.  I can count on one finger the number of times I was exposed to finance/economics.  It consisted of balancing a checkbook(whatever the fuck that is) in 11th grade.  THAT is the problem.  They keep the masses illiterate so they can plunder at will.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:01 | 653994 Shameful
Shameful's picture

They only provide enough education to work not so much as to think.  As there is no reason to have jobs in the US, I'm sure you noticed the declining quality of education at all levels.  If the masses will not have productive jobs why teach them anything at all?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:45 | 654781 prophet
prophet's picture

fav movie line from Total Recall:

"I don't give you enough information to think, just do what you are told"

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 10:16 | 655033 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

"20 years of schoolin' and they put you on the day shift." 

Mr. Zimmerman told us all we needed to know years ago. 

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:15 | 654038 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I bet they even burned all the books on finance at the library (whatever the fuck that is).

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:24 | 654062 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Nope, that's how I ended up with an interest in all of this.  Found a David Icke book in the stacks one day, saw the Fed in it, went to G Ed's book, never looked back. 

Do you enjoy living your life as a complete douchebag, or is it just the only mechanism you have left to cope with the failure that drowns out your ability to feel anything other than self-pity and hatred?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:25 | 654495 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

Thoreau, The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. What is called resignation is confirmed desperation.

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 15:00 | 655365 chopper read
chopper read's picture

+1  - love that quote. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:35 | 654101 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Conrad, one thing for sure is that ur wallet is always marked to market unlike bank assets, and as a result so will your spending. BB fails to realize that.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:13 | 653825 centerline
centerline's picture

prices going up + pay going down = cash running out

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:14 | 653826 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Buying stocks is the smartest thing to do now.

These last few weeks have been awsome!

Only the crybabies have been left out and now they are crying their eyes out :)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:15 | 653829 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

How those banking shares workin out for ya?

 

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:48 | 653954 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

+1

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:52 | 654548 Minion
Minion's picture

I started shorting them today.  So far so good....

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:09 | 654015 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

sure goog went up 10%

but last week ag went up 10% as well

and gold and silver have been moving up nicely....

who needs goog?

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 07:04 | 656239 pitz
pitz's picture

Precisely, GOOG to zero.  What a garbage company. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:15 | 653828 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

I just couldn't figure it out for so long-why didn't the market fall farther, as it should have similar to the housing/debt collapse like the 30's and Japan. Price it all in gold and you see that it is doing so, just as I should. Thank God I have stopped most of my shorting activities (except financials) and bought more PM's.

Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:18 | 653830 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

While reading this, I kept getting the image of a "Jenga" game in my head. 

Our markets, circa 1971, were the equivalent of a Jenga tower, before the game has begun. The Fed began pulling lower blocks to build the tower higher. All that remains now is a wobbling monstrosity that wobbles and teeters with each subsequent Fed move to build the tower higher.

We are now at the end of the game where the next move, or perhaps the one after that, will finally cause the tower to collapse. 

(Turd pauses to reflect...)

You know, the more I think about it, that's a pretty good metaphor. Here's a visual aide:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHquUhrYfoY

Have a great weekend, everyone!

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:25 | 653869 molecool
molecool's picture

I couldn't help but plagiarize:

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=18237

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:29 | 653881 mikla
mikla's picture

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:58 | 653981 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

"Once you touch it, you can't keep your hands off it"

LOL!

Works great for the inkjets too.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:08 | 654335 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Would a Turd by any other name smell so sweet?

Nice Gold calls as of late man, seemingly prescient even. It bounced along today, right where you saw it. Ef'n prognosticator.

You have yourself a great weekend.

Best regards

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:16 | 653835 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What "stronger currencies"?

I hope he's talking about platinum and palladium.

Or perhaps the new gold dinars that were supposedly coming out in Indonesia (it was Indonesia, wasn't it?)?

Other than that, I completely agree.  We'll probably get another "deflationary" collapse, where the stock markets cave in on themselves, and no amount of money will make them go up, like trying to refill a broken cup with milk.  To get the level of milk back up to where it was before the cup broke, you'll have to flood your house with the stuff, and it won't exactly be business as usual thereafter.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:22 | 653863 wafflehead
wafflehead's picture

things can be temporarily fixed like putting cookies into the glass of milk before pouring the milk The milk will be absorbed in the cookies thus keeping the milk in the cup while still having a broken cup

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:06 | 654006 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I like it. Make mine chocolate chip.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:17 | 653842 molecool
molecool's picture

"Buying stocks is the smartest thing to do now.

These last few weeks have been awsome!"

Right - the last few weeks have been awesome - which is why the next few weeks will be aweseome as well? Works every time I take it?

Ever heard of cognitive bias?

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:18 | 653850 redpill
redpill's picture

Wait, are you saying past performance is no indication of future return?  What a novel concept!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:19 | 653851 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

It works for the bearded clam

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:20 | 653856 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Any pleasure so derived should be short-lived, when the terror of underlying reality quickly takes hold.

 

A Wall Street insider traders wet dream. Is there any doubt who ordered and orchestrated this massive market manipulation?

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:22 | 653859 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

BS.  There will be no violent sell-offs.  In fact, there will be no significant sell-offs whatsoever ever again.  As denoted in nominal dollars.  Compared to gold price, that's something else entirely.  But the PTB will allow nothing 'disorderly' to happen inside US capital markets, at least not discernable to J6P.

Indeed, this is a great time to be long.  This month, it's QE Lite; Next month, QE2; the following month, Santa Clause Rally.   Dow 13k by New Year's eve.

Caveat: while no lover of Republicans or politics in general, a GOP/Tea Party takeover of the House could be interesting, as many of these people may not be immediately corrupted (though in time, all will be. Or be gone.).  If a fully engaged/enraged GOP held chamber can impair the Fed's money spigot, or cause fear of investigations, things may change.  Of course, as we saw with a Dem Congress and Republican Administation, the DOJ, regardless the extent of crimes, can be held off the job at the President's pleasure.

Still, given the corrosive effect of money on American politics, it is foolish to bet against the Street for any meaningful good to come of this.  See: Barack Obama, Agent of Change [sic].

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:24 | 653865 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Somewhere in Kenya a village is missing its idiot

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:26 | 653877 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

It takes a village to raise an idiot.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:05 | 654005 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

+9.5! 

Comment of the day!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:16 | 654041 snowball777
snowball777's picture

It takes a village of idiots to raise an idiot.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:24 | 654064 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

It takes a village with cable to turn all into idiots.

Got books?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:29 | 654082 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

no no no, it takes one pretty with cleavage ON CABLE to turn a Village into idiots.

 

These idiots will believe anything pretty says because they are thinking with something totally something else.

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 13:25 | 655226 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

Got music, bitchez?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:43 | 654666 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Somewhere in Kenya a village is missing its idiot

I didn't know you were from Kenya!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:34 | 653902 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

We should begin arranging an early spring march on D.C.  Settle on 3-5 major issues we can drill down into that every J6P can understand and get behind.  If we could come together and lay out a simple(one page) plan, we could disseminate it on every website there is for the next 6 months, all day, every day. Then, come spring, we go door to door in the halls of Congress selling pitchforks.  Make sure they understand they were not voted in to do more of the same.

The Internet of today is the pubs of the 18th century, but multiplied by untold orders of magnitude.  We need to use it before it's too late.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:40 | 653924 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

If you're calling for a Constitutional Convention, I'm in.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:12 | 654020 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

I don't trust those weasels enough to give them that power.  I'm fairly certain we'd come out much worse off. 

I'm talking about bringing awareness to things like: abolish the fed, end all foreign aid and bring home all troops from overseas and use them to secure all of the borders, use the foreign aid savings to rebuild the nation's infrastructure, balanced budget or congress dissolves and we re-elect(nobody from the dissolved congress may run again), term limits, repeal income tax and enact APT tax, no earmarks, no attaching bills to other bills, repeal 17th amendment.  Not all of them necessarily, but a couple.

Once settled on a core set, create a succinct document explaining them, then push them and a march until the given day.

I know: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIDLC8M4R28

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:04 | 654182 puckles
puckles's picture

The point of a Constitutional Convention is to EXCLUDE the weasels; that's what we did with the Brits.  There's no way any sitting Congresscritter could be invited to the party...  But frankly, there wasn't much wrong with the old Constitution, while it was still followed.  What really needs to be done is establish enormous--yes, even capital--penalties for deviating from/ignoring the Constitution, and utterly get rid of the noxious notion of a "living Constitution."  The Founders did not invite us to consult Progressive oracles as to what they meant.  They meant what they wrote, and most of what they wrote was tellingly clear.  They had risked their own lives and fortunes to found a nation on those principles, and escape much the same sort of tyranny we suffer under today-- a country no longer under the rule of law, but the whimsical rule of a shoddy, unprincipled, tiny elite of billionaire scumbags.  George III fit that description to a T, as did his nasty relatives and cronies.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:34 | 654260 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Was always more iterested in the Articles of Confederation and the anti-Federalist papers.  Hard to find in public education (is that like military intelligence).

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:14 | 654037 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Interesting is not the word I would use.  The lame duck session has the chance to be totally nightmarish.  I shudder to think of the wild stuff they could pull on us when there is no longer any restraint, like the ultimate robbery seizing 401ks.  After all when a professional looter is leaving office why not loot one last time and take up a job at the firm that just paid for the vote?

Also I give most of the new reds about 2 months before they are died in the wool neocons.  Most aren't far from it anyway.  Meet the new boss same as the old boss.  Don't get me wrong, I'm all for kicking the old bums out, and then this new crop of bums as well.  However their replacements will likely be lack luster and I expect the existing members to light the place on fire as they walk out.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:28 | 654371 FEDbuster
Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:03 | 654705 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I know there's been talk of this,but for their sakes, it had best stay in just a discussion mode.Watching an incoming  Tsunami on a beach would be preferable to the repercussions.

 

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:06 | 654711 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

To each according to their needs....

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 15:25 | 655403 chopper read
chopper read's picture

i mentioned this "401(k) goes into Social Security" meme to a very nice gentleman (airline pilot) the other day.  He mentioned that he did not much follow politics. 

His thoughts: "I will revolt. Literally."

Dems may not be prepared for this type of reaction (from the 'passive' types) to their latest and greatest initiative to "spread the wealth around". 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:28 | 654063 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dem/Repub are both Keynesian.  There is no way to hold the bond market other than commit a large amount of austerity that would be more than unpopular.  Austerity will have to be 50% or so, aggregate expenditures would turn growth negative, and this is the best case scenario because the other scenario is the repubs stamping QE 2 and the end of the dollar.  The whole reason for anything in economics right now is for a lower valued dollar.  That is what they want so that is what they will get.  When they get it they will look stupid but they will all look stupid together.  Think about it; dollar crash and that's what they want, but oil is $10 at the pump.  There will be no way to fix that either, once the dollar breaks it is game over.  Maybe the IMF calls a 'do over' but what, price gold at $20k just to save face?  How will this current, soon to be former, system work when the US defaults by killing theirs (and everybody else's) currency?  It will happen two ways:  aither 1) the dollar moves to DXY 66 without anyone noticing (haha! and good luck with oil prices!) or there is simply 2) a run on Treasuries.  Most likely, with QE 2 about to be used by all the Keynesians and China not wanting to pull the card, China slowly backs out of the bond market (have they already?) and the Fed (continues) to step in, slowly (over the next few months) moving the value of the dollar down at an anualized rate of 32%.

And what if there is no QE and somehow the Congress don't spend monie like they are so good at and they enforce severe austerity on pensions and what  not?  Well then the dollar lasts 2 more years.  Maybe.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:54 | 654794 prophet
prophet's picture

Kenyanism.

I have a $7.50 U.S. gas price based on world auto trends and a steady long term dollar downtrend.

 

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 13:26 | 655229 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

currentsea bitch.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:24 | 653867 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

 Show me the roadblock and ill believe it. In the mean time, This is nothing but jawboning by Old time investors who think human market makers still exist.  Blah Blah Blah. Goog to $9,000/ share by next Tuesday. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:25 | 653870 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

I don't understand this call.  Isnt' the FED buying stocks and not to mention PPT?  Would it be in their best interest for this to happen, at this time? I think not.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:14 | 654204 puckles
puckles's picture

I suspect that his point is that while the FED, PPT, etc. can certainly juggle the market reasonably well when there is little market volume, once the panic comes, they will be crushed.  Even the Fed won't be able to juggle that.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:25 | 653873 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

Whats the debate the Fed has frozen shorts ahead of elections and there after all bets are off.  Wake up cause thats the end game ...min seat losses.  Jez.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:26 | 653876 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

when a selloff in financials and energy don't even turn the s&p red then i call bullshit on crash predictions. picking up pennies in front of a steamroller seems risk free to me because the steam roller isn't moving at all.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:27 | 653878 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Violent selloff?  What shit is this guy on?

The Fed would buy futures.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:47 | 653949 hambone
hambone's picture

Fed losses when it can't buy futures faster than dollar crashes (possibly up and/or down). 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:57 | 654566 Minion
Minion's picture

The Greenspan Put did not prevent some violent selloffs during the past decade.  The Bernanke Put has yet to get us back to 14000...... 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:01 | 654805 prophet
prophet's picture

Most definitely fast moving waterfall declines and slower moving ricochets.  You see it almost daily and you see it over the last two years. 

That DJI 26k in 2025 thing that made the rounds worked out to something like 8P/year.  We may see a single digit P/E and then work back up from there, but violent sell offs will serve their purpose along the way. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:29 | 653880 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Yet, despite all this, some businesses are doing well. Kinda like ants. Kick the nest and minutes later their back fixing everything. To bad there is a flood coming.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:29 | 653882 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Sell off will happen do to an outside influence.  Not gonna happen due to domestic dynamics.  China, Russia will go full bore and will try to take us down or something like that.  

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:29 | 653883 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Yes Gold and Silver remain excellent long term liquid hedges on inflation of the FRN.  There will probably be volatility, though.  It is impossible to buy on the dips of something that is going parabolic and has no dips.  A severe and violent equity sell off may present a PM buying window.  Buy when there is blood in the streets.  (Yes I think physical PM's will be available for a short while, then the window might close).  I am thinking maybe $18 silver.  I will probably get back in the silver eagle game at $20, though.  In the mean time, be sure to have food, a sure fire source of potable water, and a means to defend it should it come to that.  Hope and pray for the best, prepare for the worst.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:36 | 653913 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

who are you?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:55 | 653973 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

I am Cheesy

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:06 | 654814 merehuman
merehuman's picture

cheesy , be sure not to spread yourself too far.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:42 | 653929 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I really hate it when people steal other people's names.  Come on...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:50 | 653960 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Any similarity to cheeky (tm) real or imagined is purely coincidental.  Cmon If he wants his avatar back he can have it.  We all know the sequel is never as good as the original.  It's just a matter of not being Frosty the snowman 2 (worst sequel ever, John Goodman) or the Godfather 2.  Lighten up :)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:12 | 654028 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Godfather 2 is a fine film. It's the third one that sucks.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:21 | 654052 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

That is what I meant.  1 bad sequel (Frosty), one good one (Godfather 2).  Godfather 3 did suck, though.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:32 | 654504 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

OK. Just don't get me started on the devolution of the Planet of the Apes franchise through five feature films, the television series and the Saturday morning cartoon.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:01 | 654569 akak
akak's picture

You forgot about the lunch boxes and the action figures.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:50 | 654677 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Beneath the planet of the apes figurines with the kung fu grip!  Holy deja vu batman....

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:04 | 654810 prophet
prophet's picture

No similarity whatsoever.  I think that is the point of the objection.  He was over the top sharp.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:51 | 653946 Laura Keth
Laura Keth's picture

deleted

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:52 | 653964 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

I am not cheeky, I just jacked the avatar and am using a similiar name.  Yep.  Jacked it right off...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:13 | 654033 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

Now that your done. Can you disappear and never come back again?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:22 | 654054 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

I can come back as Bad Bongo the apetard.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:31 | 654085 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

Good. Now please go away.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:34 | 654098 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Sorry, no. :)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:00 | 653990 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

Are you the same dude that parodied Johnny Bravo with Johrny Bravo?  Good show!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:06 | 654007 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

I wish I could take credit for that. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:10 | 654019 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

Me thinks JB still roams these halls...Might have upwardly revised call for AU not to hit 1400 mark. It would have been better for him to say 1800 though..either way though it will just be a matter of time before it eclipses both

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:01 | 654578 Minion
Minion's picture

That rising wedge was an illusion.  It counted the reverse h/s and not the channeling pattern after it.  We did have a small 3 month wedge looking pattern until last week.  :D

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:09 | 654720 DosZap
DosZap's picture

unum,

'You missed JB?

He came thru here like a dose of salts trhu a widow woman the other day when Gld dumped around $30.00............Two, maybe 3 quickies, flash..he was gone.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:32 | 654253 Hulk
Hulk's picture

That was me. Over did it a bit, but RR set me straight!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:35 | 654261 Johrny Bravo
Johrny Bravo's picture

Yep, it was Hulk...

Goled to $900 Bitchez!!!!!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:51 | 654679 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

RR who?  Me?

What did I do now?!

I'm not responsible -- ask any of my past wives.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:19 | 654822 Hulk
Hulk's picture

You wacked me pretty good RR, hurt my feeeeeelings too!

Playing Bravo was fun, but boy could I fell the zh vitriol! Made me feel sorry for the kid!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:22 | 654829 Johrny Bravo
Johrny Bravo's picture

Thanks Hulk, but it beats my mom locking me in the basement.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:25 | 654833 Hulk
Hulk's picture

No problem kid, now run along and go play on the freeway...

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 09:40 | 654990 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Did you hear grandpa had a vitriol drug accident?

Is he alright.

Well they don't fuck around in the lethal injection chair!!! ;)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:32 | 653895 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I'm dazed and confused from these crazy mindless market numbers - I am concerned for my metal, I mean mental well being.

Perhaps if I could spend some time in the darkness of a gold mine shaft - I can recover my basic hobbit dignity and be close to my precious.

We are all one specie , sorry species after all.

My precious...........

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:32 | 653896 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

To all of you fighting the Bernanke put: GIVE IT UP ALREADY!!! You're all waiting for Armaggedon, but it ain't happening. Meanwhile, prop traders are making a fookking killing in these wolf markets. Small is beautiful in this new, new world of trading! :) :) :)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:37 | 653915 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Hi!  I have learned a whole lot of new words since I started reading Zero Hedge.  Bulltard.  Asstard.  Fucktard.  If I buy Chinese solar stocks now does that make me a Leotard? :)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:43 | 653934 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

Bulltard.  Meat source.

Asstard.  Meat deposit.

Fucktard.  Meat tenderizing.

Leotard.   Is it in yet, guy.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:47 | 653952 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

US Plans Inquiry on China's Subsidies of Clean Energy New York Times - Sewell Chan, Keith Bradsher - ‎The Obama administration announced Friday that it would investigate a complaint accusing China of illegally subsidizing its clean-energy industries, in another sign of its newly assertive posture over China's trade and ...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:11 | 654194 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Re-register Cheesy Motherfucker & learn some respect.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:36 | 654264 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Shall I show the same respect for others that you are showing now?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:57 | 654313 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Believe me I am showing respect...and if you ever had any backbone you would not be here with this handle...What did you find disrespectful? Cheesy or Motherfucker, motherfucker?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:03 | 654327 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Perhaps you should take the log out of your own eye first.  I will not respond to your venom on this thread any further.  God bless you and have a nice weekend!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:08 | 654338 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Great. You also enjoy your weekend & look forward to seeing you at your original best another time..

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:43 | 654772 bulldung
bulldung's picture

+1000 LOL for LEOtard

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:50 | 654788 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Thanks!

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 13:31 | 655238 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

how about a

bas.....tard

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 18:21 | 655594 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

your failure to pay proper homage to phucknut has exposed you

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:39 | 653920 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

"Small is beautiful in this new, new world of trading! :) :) :)"

So, you're talking about trading your penis pictures with whom?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:03 | 653932 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Leo -

The world is changing, I feel it in the earth, I feel it in the water, I smell it in the air. Much that once was is forgotten; for none now live who remember it. It began with the forging of the great rings: three for the Elves, immortal, wisest and fairest of all beings. Seven for the Dwarf Lords; great miners and craftsman of the mountain halls. And nine rings were passed to the race of men, who above all else desire power. But they were all of them decieved for another ring was made: in the land of Mordor, in the fires of Mount Doom, the dark lord Sauron forged, in secret, a master ring to control all others. And into this ring he poured his cruelty, his malice,and his will to dominate all life.

One Ring to Rule them All.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47IBN7UGYo

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:28 | 654078 Strider52
Strider52's picture

Corky: "Much that once was is forgotten". I *immediately* recognized this from LOTR, having read it many times. In Japan, I was bored so I read the whole thing again. When I was in Ireland, especially in Cork, I was so busy consuming mass quantities of Guinness that much that I used to remember is forgotten.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:10 | 654180 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Guinness is good, but Beamish is better.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:07 | 654186 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

You were drinking Guinness in Cork !!! blasphemy, Beamish and Murphys are the stouts of choice in the far southern republic.

Of course they are now made by the Heineken cooperation so it does not matter anymore really.

Best to drink good Belgian beer.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:45 | 653939 tmosley
tmosley's picture

And meanwhile, you are losing real purchasing power if you are in stocks.  Period.

Gold and silver are both beating every index that exists.  No need to trade or be nimble.  Just buy and hold, and spend it when the time comes.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:07 | 654592 Minion
Minion's picture

Actually I think junior gold miners (GDXJ) are even beating gold.  :)  Some individual junior mining stocks have quintupled during this recent move!  RoboTrader didn't show them for some reason.......

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:47 | 653945 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

In Leo's past life, he pulled gold fillings from the mouths of dead people and pronounced it an honest day's pay.  The day he popped six of his mom's, he ordered up an extra magnum of champagne and the best cigar he could find.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:15 | 654016 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Leo since you claim to have an investments background, please detail for the whole community here at Zero Hedge how the "Bernanke put" worked in 2008?  Do you really think the problems of the banking system have been resolved short of changing FASB rules?  Do you really think the consumer and corporate debt has suddenly vanished and will not hamper future purchasing power?  Do you really think the Chinese with a majority still living in relative poverty are going to power the world economy?  I could go on but if you want to believe in your savior B. S. Bernanke please continue to do so at your own peril.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:28 | 654076 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Do you really think the Chinese with a majority still living in relative poverty are going to power the world economy?

 

Wait all the pig farmers are not going to be buying pontiac aztek's with full leather ... ???

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:40 | 654400 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I love the story of the Chinese delivering truck loads of washers and dryers to a rural town with no running water or electricity, then booking them as "sales".  Still the Chinese got nothing on the BLS.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:50 | 654790 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

The better story, my favorite, is the chinese building office buildings in rural areas with no tenants, and the empty buildings used by farmers to raise livestock.  20 story chicken and pig high-rises.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:08 | 654815 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

stop it ..

 

We are talking heroin addicted commie fraudsters, siting on a tinder box of one child, spoon fed lies, with pollution like no other, drinking/clean water issues, the bumkins coming out of the farming lands have nothing to offer except slave labor(300 million), trillions that still needs to be spent on sewer and water, no safety net for the elderly, they have stolen most everything ...energy cost will kill them going forward.

They will not move away from being dependant on exporting without a crash first, china is not going to decouple from mortgage gate, round two of the credit crisis, they are sitting on gobs of stock, fannie freddie tolietries.Good luck with all that ...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:12 | 654030 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Not fighting BerSpanky; just fighting the urge to puke everytime that Romer hog shows up on the idiot box, thereby proving the name.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:14 | 654034 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

I get junked for saying this on here (but what do I care): if you aint running with 'em, run from these fuckers.

words from a very wise man. I am reminded of it when discussing the Federal Reserve.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:14 | 654509 akak
akak's picture

To all of you fighting the Bernanke put: GIVE IT UP ALREADY!!!

"Give yourselves over to the Dark Side of the Force!"

Fuck you, Leo, you status-quo apologist and collaborationist bastard.  I hate you, and every spineless and amoral coward like you.

But it's nice to see you collecting your usual double-digit number of junks.  As you fully deserve.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:59 | 654695 intraday-wizard
intraday-wizard's picture

the fact is at dow 11k we aint far from dow 14k highs and the 99.9percent of these bears who have been selling into the bid will have to bail.

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 18:57 | 655624 Minion
Minion's picture

Opportunity cost, my friend, opportunity cost.  The tide is indeed rising (banks seem to be sinking, however).

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 09:36 | 654985 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Sorry, Leo, but I think I'll stay put on my farm and leave 'trading' to others.  Enjoy the profits while FRNs still have some value.

Two things I've learned from history:  no one is actually to big to fail and some things are beyond anyone's power to control.

Bernyankme is rapidly approaching the limits of the Feds power.  What fails when that limit is reached I leave to your imagination.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!