2011 there have been 49 killer tornadoes, the average for a full year is
only 22. So what’s going on? There is no question but that the rapid transition from La Nina to El Nino conditions is responsible for the violent weather.
From the May 23, NOAA update:
The transition from La to El is happening in all of the ENSO regions:
What this means is that warmer water is building up on the Pacific coast
and the Gulf of Mexico. These pics show the transition from 3/2 to
5/18. Note the buildup of color in the GoM.
With the heat and moisture comes the rain (storms) that go though the
South and the Ohio Valley all the way up to the North East. We are
experiencing unusual conditions in this entire area:
The long-term chart shows that the cycle of El to La conditions has
happened repeatedly in the past. The most recent cycle is notable
because of the extreme trough that was achieved back in November and the
very rapid transition from La to El.
The ENSO weather cycle is a bit like the stock market. It produces extremely choppy conditions during peaks and valleys. It can be downright deadly when it changes direction.
Does this portend a nasty hurricane season ?
How about those Canucks !
Just the opposite. Strong El Nino events are strongly correlated with weak hurricane seasons. Warm water in the eastern Pacific drives easterly winds across the Carribean and tends to push the jet stream further south, both of which shear the tops off tropical storms preventing them from organizing into hurricanes.
That's my first thought - bad hurricane year? Warm water means more energy. What usually happens in this shift? Ike hit us here in Houston right about when Wells Fargo was collapsing in 2008. Great timing that. And I'll never forget our escape from New Orleans moment as Katrina was bearing down on us during a wedding. Another exciting year?
Nice post. You're pretty good on this weather stuff Bruce. I assume somebody taught you this stuff when you were trading commodities. Good stuff though. It's not pinpoint accurate but you can make a pretty good forecast using those ocean temperatures as a very rough gauge.
Bruce, I've said it before and I'll say it again, if you want to know more about this type of thing, you couldn't contact a better guy than Gary England (weatherman) at KWTV9 in Oklahoma.
Shall do. I'm a 'wanna be' weatherman. The stuff today from NOAA is pretty convincing (to me) that what we are seeing is something that has happened again and again. Why Joplin today? No clue.
Bruce, check all the videos on Dutchsinse's channel on YouTube.
As an interesting sidenote: why is it that anyone who mentions Dutch (or HAARP, or scalar eweather effects) gets junked in this thread? Very strange.10
An F5 can ruin your whole day.
Nobody doing serious climate science is willing to tie individual weather events to climate change.
Though it isn't hard to imagine the link, and not hard to make a case for prudence.
This isn't a horse race, opinions don't matter: If climate change is in some way behind these freakish storms then some day in the future there will be statistical evidence for it. We don't have to argue it now, either way. Time will tell. It's not even interesting to think about it until then.
Won't help the folks living in Tornado Alley, regardless. They're blown (pun intended). For them, it's not a model anymore.
Climate changing? Probably
People causing it? Maybe
Giving the govt more tax dollars make it better? Probably not
Man is shit scared of financial meltdown, of Fukushima bubbling out and dumping deep down, of oil depletion and long gasoline lines, of mass starvation. As all this is comprehensible. But the effect of human footprint on the environment is a pipe-dream. Even though we have the ozone hole, even though we have a general temperature rise, even though we have the ocean's acidity rising; we see no correlaton with man's own consumer guzzling, nor its projected stratospheric take off as the century progresses. Well, granted, its not scientifically proven. The alarming rise of mega eco-swings and tsunamis is just a pimple on the face of mother earth. Maybe, but if it isn't, it will be too late to wake up when the evidence appears. Common sense is sometimes a useful tool. But if I say it I am a fool. Fools are fine, if they can prove, even at an epsilonic level they can be useful.
So Don Quixote I will stay. And like an Apache scrutinise the far horizon and glue my ear to the ground to capture the faraway hoofbeat of advancing danger.
Cauliflower ears anyone? Going cheap!
More people = more targets.
you just can't beat radioactive tornadoes, hurricanes, floods! momma always told me i had a radiated personality!
HAARP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program
But what's so special about this particular shift from El to La (or La to El, I can never keep it straight) that has made the tornado season especially vicious? The transition has happned dozens of times in the recent past without this level of ferocity.
Personally, I think the Fed is responsible. All that hot air must go somewhere.
Belief in anthropomorphic climate change (ACC) is as scientific as believing witches turned people into newts ... (and there is a nice soft set up for someone)
Perhaps some enterprising scientist can land a genetic study funded to see if a correlation exists between believers in witches and believers in ACC - "Cotton Mather linked to Al Gore!"
Everything we have collected so far as proof of ACC falls into the "statically insignificant" heading - especially since they recently figured out glaciers are formed by freezing from the bottom as well as the top.
My all time favorite ... picture of petrified trees revealed by melting Canadian glaciers with the ill chosen caption below it ... "Unprecedented glacial melt proves global warming is real" O RLY !!!
barliman
Bruce, I think you have it backwards in your text...it is El Nino to La Nina, not vice versa.
I wish it was el nino conditions still. That generally means rain for us in Texas. Right now we are hurtin' for certain with drougth.
Study on paleo rainfall records clearly shows existence of MWP and LIA in Southern Hemisphere
(link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/23/study-on-paleo-rainfall-records-cl...)
This study from the University of Pittsburgh and SUNY-Albany set out to illustrate how rainfall patterns changes with global temperature in South America. They found the link they were looking for. At the same time, they validated the existence of the Medeival Warm Period and the Little Ice Age effects in the Southern hemisphere, which is interesting since many claim the effects were regional, not global. See the image at left and press release below.
...
The study compared the record in the Pumacocha sediment core (PC) to various geological records from South America—Cascayunga Cave (CC), the Quelccaya ice Cap (QIC), and the Cariaco Basin (CB)—as well as the annual position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
The sediment core shows regular fluctuations in rainfall from 300 BCE to 900 CE, with notably heavy precipitation around 550. Beginning in 900, however, a severe drought set in for the next three centuries, with the driest period falling between 1000 and 1040. This period correlates with the well-known demise of regional Native American populations, Abbott explained, including the Tiwanaku and Wari that inhabited present-day Boliva, Chile, and Peru.
After 1300, monsoons increasingly drenched the South American tropics. The wettest period of the past 2,300 years lasted from roughly 1500 to the 1750s during the time span known as the Little Ice Age, a period of cooler global temperatures. Around 1820, a dry cycle crept in briefly, but quickly gave way to a wet phase before the rain began waning again in 1900. By July 2007, when the sediment core was collected, there had been a steep, steady increase in dry conditions to a high point not surpassed since 1000....
In short, the climate is ALWAYS changing. It has NEVER not been changing. The issue is and always has been, to what extent is human activity responsible for HARMFUL climate change beyond that which would have otherwise occurred? Since just about all proposals tendered by those who advocate that humans are responsible for the climate change we are presently experiencing, involve destroying personal liberty, increasing government power and reducing US national prosperity, it is clear to me that "climate change" is just another ploy by the left to proejct their self-loathing and hatred for liberty and prosperity. And given how they react to any resistence or contrary data, it is clearly a secular religion with them.
The weather services explains a stochastic increase in tornadoes by invoking the stochastic change in weather conditions (Nina, Nino) in another part of the world. That's not an explanation.
To me, a non-scientist, it has always seemed as though climate change was the bait while cap-and-trades was the hook (global wealth redistribution).
Saw this coming and put cisterns on my land to hold water (as we get another drought with El Nino). No rain water leaves the property. Fuck the watershed. If the county wants to bill me for the runoff, I'll just keep it, kills two birds with one stone.
HAARP or The Brown Dwarf ELENIN--you don't know do you!
interesting article on El Nino and 'weather' it will return in the next few monhts
from WattsUp
No No to el Nino ( till 2012)
a new weather site is coming on line (beta right now) with some pretty good stuff (the article above has a link to it) and access to their premium content is currently free with registration
rapture..
I don't deny climate change,... but I think it may be changing to a cooler climate, at least for the next 20 years. I know everyone thinks man is somehow special and has the ability to drastically change the weather on earth all by his little lonesome. But there is a big yellow spot in the sky that seems to hold sway over our weather on a daily basis, and it is in understanding that glowing orb and what effects it, that has greater sway than man or man made events.
It's all mass, gravity, and inertia, and the big players are the sun, jupiter, and saturn. Their clock says cooling. What is your clock made of and what does it have to say?
"What is your clock made of and what does it have to say?"
Silver bitches, and the markets are definitely cooling.
Eleven year cycle solar maximum and El Nino likely means stormier, hotter weather in northern climes.
But of course, the solar cycles are Bush's fault and are exacerbated by my SUV.
I think it's road trip time again.
Eleven year cycle solar maximum ... means hotter/stormier.
Yeah, that'd be true if the current maxium is going to be anything like recent maximums, but it's not.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/08/solar-max-so-soon/
It's going to get colder and stormier. Hotter actually implies fewer storms, as the temperature gradients across the temperate zones moderate when the world warms up.
Let me get this straight... so the Sun is like JP Morgan, the Earth is like Silver, and Al Gore is like the CFTC?
HAARP, bitchez!
Climate change is part of the Earth's natural cycle. Of course, this is the one thing that the climate nazi's like to ignore.
really hard to fleece trillions of dollars out of governments and people alike if you admit that changes are part of a nature cycle. After all, the climate nazi's saw this as a great chance to move towards world governance.
I am a proud denier.
You didn't publish the list of things you "deny". That would be helpful in understanding your credibility.
If, in your compilation of all things denied, you decide against revealing it, I think there may be some hope for you.
+1
the USA has always hated "climate change deniers"...ok, its not cut and dried...but...live with the consequences now of being N°# 1 polluter of the world per square Km! or per inhabitant!
I know, the chinese beat you in absolute terms!
Climate change is the most obvious and easy to understand phenomenon in the world. Our climate has changed daily, monthly, yearly since the formation of the atmosphere, and I am fairly certain that the "climate" has never been the same twice and in fact has varied quite extensively throughout earths history.
So, its the people who think the climate should not change (somehow america can legislate it to stay the same?? lol) who are truly the grandest of idiots.
watch the arctic melt and although I don't have a million year memory...i would venture that we should be careful in the way we live. Anybody who says its ONLY the sun, needs a trip to the moon. How can you be certain one way. I am not the other. But my mind is open, not closed! Like some!...
And, I not a climate nazi! I don't say Sieg Heil to any theory unproved; but which I don't reject per se 'cos it affects 'our precious preconceived way of life!'
I was watching a show about China's Three Gorges and read about Qadaffi's canal system and mused about the depths to which the US has succumed. Carbon Credits and endangered lizards.
Did you read about Qaddafi's canal system, or Libya's????
His mug as a proxy, I definitely don't want to see his "canal system"...
You are right about the randomness of it. But the long term chart of ENSO shows that this cycle has been happening back and forth for as long as records have been kept. I suspect that it (or something like it) has been around for millions of years.
It's the sun that is responsible. Nothing man made about this.
Hi BK, you might want to review the Youtube channel of Dutchsinse.
He has been predicting severe weather very successfully based on the presence of HAARP rings and other man made injections of energy.
The USA does not 'hate climate change deniers', the UN- the vehicle used to drive the agenda- and those who stand to profit from cap and trade 'hate the deniers' - and do all they can via their: a) advertising dollars, and b) adoring non government organizations who hold consultative status with the ECOSOC/EESOC to influence the mass media. In doing so, they influence public opinion of the kool aid drinkers to believe the "deniers" should be hated...
The extremely dry weather in western TX, OK, and KS. and very wet weather in east of there is generating poor to very poor growing conditions for the corn and wheat crops. On June 30th, the USDSA will likely issue VIP crop yield and acreage report. With record low inventory, the world needs a record season. With current weather pattern expect, corn and wheat prices to jump in next 3 or 4 weeks. Buy GRU, DAG, Corn, and MOO to play this weather pattern.
The extremely dry weather in western TX, OK, and KS. and very wet weather in east of there is generating poor to very poor growing conditions for the corn and wheat crops. On June 30th, the USDSA will likely issue VIP crop yield and acreage report. With record low inventory, the world needs a record season. With current weather pattern expect, corn and wheat prices to jump in next 3 or 4 weeks. Buy GRU, DAG, Corn, and MOO to play this weather pattern.
The extremely dry weather in western TX, OK, and KS. and very wet weather in east of there is generating poor to very poor growing conditions for the corn and wheat crops. On June 30th, the USDSA will likely issue VIP crop yield and acreage report. With record low inventory, the world needs a record season. With current weather pattern expect, corn and wheat prices to jump in next 3 or 4 weeks. Buy GRU, DAG, Corn, and MOO to play this weather pattern.