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JP Morgan Boosts Q4 GDP Forecast By 30% From 3.5% To 4.5%
Because you know JPM is completely unconflicted and unaxed from pushing a Chinese growth model in the US. Justifcation: "GDP growth is being revised upward reflecting this week's upside surprises in monthly reports on inventories, net exports and retail sales." Somehow JPM managed to have an embargo on this report, likely prepared days, ago until 11:51 am. In other news: the government has no bias to presenting overinflated data.
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Gee, 3 whole hours for Jamie's kids to put together a full report including the retail sales numbers that were released at 8:30 a.m. Make this guy Treasury Secretary - he really knows how to get the most out of his people!
Why, you'd almost think they had a crystal ball!
Hmm wasn't the Q3 number revised down to 2.1
mere details, LOL...
Call it the Tiger Woods economy. On the surface everything seems OK and it chugs along on happy MSM cheerleading Fed fantasy momentum. Underneath, in an embarrassing poorly kept secret obvious to anyone who cares to look, our economic foundation is crumbling to non-existent. How long can it continue? Like Tiger Woods, up until the point it all collapses. I suspect this economy will experience its own 2:35 AM Tiger Woods collision with reality sooner rather than later.
What planet do these banksters live on. There has been no growth, if you look at this chart:
http://www.shadowstats.com/charts_republish#gdp
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data <-- other real data.
These guys (banksters) will say anything.
On planets where headlines look like this:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/longcore/longcore14.1.html
so many gems in just a single speech
War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, and IGNORANCE is STRENGTH
War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, and IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, and IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH !
The ultimate form of thought-crime punishment: Death from Above
Now that's something even Palin can agree on!
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/barack_obama/index.html?story=/opinio...
Never believe an IB.........they're always presenting in ways to pick your pockets.
Your title is misleading, and incorrect. They boosted it 1.0%, not 30%. This is the same nonsensical shit Tim Russert used to say (may that socialist bastard rest in peace) when he said that unemployment increased by 17% when it went from 4.5% to 5.25%.
It seems to me that it increased one percentage point, which is a ~30% increase (1%/3.5%).
How did you manage to even pass the math question so that you could write that?
We are going to transform ourselves into an exporting economy and export our way out of this. And, Japan, Germany, China, and the rest of the world is going to help us regain our manufacturing base and let us export, export, export to their throng of eager consumers at the expense of their own underutilized productive capacity?. This sounds like pure, unadulterated, un-cut Hopium.
If each of the the countries you named wants to be a "chief" exporting country, one might ask who is going to be the "chief" importing country?
My own guess is most of the crap is destined for the Island of Misfit Toys.
I've been dinking around with a model that correlates high frequency output data with survey-based assessments to understand three outcomes: 1) probability of revisions to survey-based economic result data; 2) assessment of underlying accuracy of survey-based economic result data; and 3) the strength of the relationship between HFO data and SBA data.
HFO data includes simple, quantitative series like sales tax receipts, gallons of fuel sold, and number of passenger air miles flown, etc. These are all population counts for the most part. SBA data are like GDP and Employment numbers -- surveys that contain sampling errors, omissions, and construct anomolies.
The results I have so far tell me the November retail sales results are 2.7 standard deviations higher from the mean result predicted by the HFO data. The same approach says GDP for Q4 (preliminary, using monthly interpolation) should be +2.18%. When you strip out the .gov spending, we're nearly 3% LOWER.
Is my SPSS table and method superior to JPM? I doubt it: I know I have data integrity issues related to State sales tax receipts because of changing tax laws, and monthly interpolation of quarterly data (fit with a cubic spline). But the HFO data modeled GDP and retail sales data very well up until January of 2009. Then something changed.
My conclusion: GDP is not performing at a +4.5% annual pace, nor are retail sales on a positive growth trajectory.
Jamie WANTS that JOB! LOL.
Max Keiser goes wild ...& China takes new tack with rogue traders
December 11th,
[OTE31] On the Edge with Max Keiser . . . and William K. Black
http://maxkeiser.com/
No offense, but everytime there's a positive report, we have to snarkily demean it, dismiss it and dismantle it. But when it comes to "Breakfast With Rosie," we lap it up uncritically, even though anyone following Rosie's advice this year would be having "Breakfast in the Homeless Shelter."
Just sayin'
even though anyone following Rosie's advice this year would be having "Breakfast in the Homeless Shelter."
Rosie has consistently said after the March lows that he thought this bear market rally could go as high as spx 1200. i've read it in his reports on several occasions.
No offense, but everytime there's a positive report, we have to snarkily demean it, dismiss it and dismantle it.
One must consider the source. Some of us have learned that government reports are often massaged by politicians. Some of us have learned that reports by sell sider banks just might have ulterior motives, say, like saving their own asses from their near insolvent status.
Rosie in June, 2009, when the S&P was about 930:
“Two historical factoids underscoring just how overbought this market really is: Going back to 1950, not once has the S&P 500 managed to surge more than 40% in advance of the recession ending. I think mostly everyone would agree that while the recession may be in its final stages, it is not over just yet. On average, the S&P 500 rallies 20% from the lows to the end of the recession. I realize that the comeback is that we hit an egregious low, but we always do in bear markets. I am just talking about what the ‘norm’ is, in terms of rallies that typify the late stage of the recession in the real economy. So, it would not be untoward to see a 20% correction just to mean revert this rally from the lows, assuming that this is all about hopes of the recession coming to an end. Yes, that would be 750-plus.”
1) The S&P rallied 60 percent from the low
2) He was predicting a 20 percent correction in June, when the S&P was at 930.
3) The S&P is up 20 percent since he called for a 20-percent correction.
Rosie can take his place at the table with the other bloviating fools who called for Dow 36,000 or whatever. He’s just as bad, just as wrong, albeit on the other side of the coin. Maybe he should think about skipping breakfast.
treasury sales sucked, also retail scam numbers, dollar breaks out, and then walla jpm report comes out too save the day, another scam by your local wall streeters
When we've reduced ourselves to rallying because retail sales were up due to people spending more on gas -- clearly this has become beyond a joke. It is beyond ridculous.
4.5% inflation=4.5% growth
Hip Hip Hooray for the Retail Sales report.
Uhh...but wait a sec....whats this preface on the official Labor report?
Special Notice - The advance estimates in this report are the first estimates from a new sample. The new sample for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey is selected about once every two and a half years.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...-Sales....html
HUH? WTF?
Ahhh....so that's why it doesn't square with data release over the last month - comp store sales, Black Fri weekend, etc
Surely JPM had to notice the 'new sample' caveat associated with this bogered up data