JP Morgan Cuts Q2 GDP Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture

Once again Zero Hedge is just a week or so ahead of the "experts." A week ago, in a post titled "April Vehicle Assembly Rate Collapses, May Industrial Production Estimates To Be Cut" we concluded "Expect to see drastic downward cuts to May Industrial Production and next, to Q2 GDP." Enter JPMorgan's Michael Feroli with "Motor vehicle sector to drag on Q2 growth." Full text: "We are revising down our outlook for the annual growth rate of real GDP in Q2 from 3.0% to 2.5%. The main factor behind our revision is weaker output of the motor vehicle sector. Based on industry data we project that real output in this sector will decline at around a 20% annual rate, which would subtract 0.5%-point from GDP growth. From an expenditure category perspective, we see most of this weaker output making itself felt in a softer pace of inventory accumulation (with some offset though weaker imports). A portion of this shortfall reflects supply chain disruptions associated with the Tohoku earthquake. Anticipating a fading of those disruptions, auto production schedules look for a rebound in output in the third quarter, which, along with somewhat lower gasoline prices, supports the case for an acceleration in growth next quarter to 3%. The change to our second quarter growth forecast is modest enough not to have a significant impact on our projections for labor markets or inflation. We continue to anticipate a first Fed rate hike in 13 Q1." Next up: Goldman revising their Q2-4 GDP "hockeystick" to be more reminiscent of a "baseball bat."