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JPM Goes Berserk With EOD Ramp
Must be so profitable to have i) an infinite array of momentum chasing quant clients and ii) an overeager ETF trading desk consisting entirely of former Tetris world champions.
And after all, it makes all the sense in the world to lift consistently rising offers in a volumeless, newsless market.
And just in case you thought 4pm on Friday means Blue Label on the rocks time for HAL9000, you were wrong:
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As if prior action had not made this abundantly clear:
VOLUME DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE!!!
They will game the market however they want. Down move a couple days back on decent volume? Push the market up on pathetic volume. That way the smart traders stay away and the banks continue to make money.
Do a search on any stocks today which aren't complete junk. In the vast majority of cases, volume was 20%-70% of the ALREADY low 30-Day average! And the S&P powered through a 38.2% Fib on that AND bad news!
"They". Why is every move upward always blamed on "them"? And if the game is so clear, you should be making gobs of money gaming the game.
Always using "them" as the cause is lazy thinking. The market has always been a system whose behavior is not easily explained by simple cause-effect explanations let alone conspiracy theories.
All this conspiracy BS diminishes the truly useful stuff on this site.
Thats ironic. Anonymous complaining about using "they" in a sentence...
what's even more ironic is a lame "handle" complaining about anonymous. if I pick a handle (that is so, like, AOL from the 90's) ... what value does that add?
I never got this either. There's the same stuff on a local politics blog I read. Some guy named "Deth Hacker" yelling at an anonymous poster for being "anonymous."Like you can find some fucker named "Deth Hacker" in the yellow pages.
Hey! My grandmother's maiden name was Deth Hacker.
Amen. I'm sick of the poor me stuff. Man up, quit complaining and stop blaming everyone else and this mythical "they" that keeps "gaming" the market. Deal with it.
Markets are irrational and fairly random over short periods of time. It's not always the Man keeping down the po folk traders.
For you and other anonymous spammers, it's nice to know that all of you are psychics and can see that anyone who realized what exactly is going on here has lost money during this rally.
In spite of what you may think, there are people who can make some money through limited participation and who can acknowledge that they're still playing a rigged game. I'm sure the indices moving in lockstep in relation to each other every day is an organic market event, right?
Junk.
Dude, you look at the first screen cap above and you see "fairly random" .... au contraire
If you anonymous doubchebags are not capable of seeing what HFT does is dead wrong than that is your problem. And the problem of every innocent investor left holding the bag when HFT machines run up stock valuations to stupid levels based on nothing more than cheating and front running on low volume days.
It is criminal what is happening.
And yeah I can trade it, so what? I could trade a fairly valued market AND keep positions overnight but not in this market.
My friend investors are always left holding the bag. The stock market started w/ two guys trading shit under a tree... not investing shit under a tree.
Nag,nag,nag.
If it wasn't "them" then it must have been ... "US?"
Stocks rising on light volume and falling on heavy
volume is classic distribution by insiders selling $62
for every $1 of stock they buy...
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
Exactly, fleece the stupid and the chasers. Is it still a game when it's rigged?
Gordon gecko 2.0 (on cnbc right know) just told me that the labor market is doing "exactly what it should when the economy moves from recession to recovery". He also told me to look for 4% GDP growth over the next 6 quarters.
Based on GG 2.0 those tetris champions are just trading on fundamentals and thus are fricking genius's
LOL, good one lizzy. And low and behold, Dow Jones, taking it's Rupert cue, sends this across the wires for all the boomers who : "Can't ride a two wheeller no mo' due to that inner ear problem caused by that See-al-liss med, that's why me and the wife got us a tri-Harley"
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Friday was 15.52.
On Wednesday, the ratio ended at 15.19.
The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total adjusted earnings for the most recent year.
In 2008, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $65.47 a share.
500 companies reported a total of $65.47 earnings
last year?
Pathetic and untrue.
How about S&P's actual reported operating earnings for
the last 4 quarters of $15.96+-.09+10.11+13.92=$40.90?
Analysts can play all the mind games they want, but the only real numbers are reported earnings, and those are used for historical valuation extremes over the decades.
Using the S&P 500 high of 1039.47/$40.90 we had an operating PE ratio of 25 or reported PE ratio of
1039.47/7.62 = 136 at recent highs, mostly achieved by funny GAAP and cost cutting layoffs. Good luck with a
sustainable business.
Using the recent long-term bond yield high of .05066%
as a proxy for 30 years of earnings yield, the reciprocal would be a PE of 19.7. Whoops.
Rupert may have some stock to sell...
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/SPEarningsChart.asp
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS (Scroll down to Cell 50-55 C for
operating earnings and 50-55 )
http://cryptogon.com/?p=10525
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3251493
Adjusted earnings? Try GAAP and see what the numbers are.
What??? Because unemployment is usually high before a recovery...there must be a recovery coming??? Precious.
i just hope when (not if) this thing crashes and the average joe loses his 401k and ira money again, he and she realize that it was the government, fed, and the big banks that took them for a ride.....again.
Exactly. They've been building the case in the media over the last six months that "buy and hold" is the thing to do. After all, if the market keeps going up, it's the only sensible course of action!
There are going to be a lot of broken people when the market finally tanks. And we'll all know who's responsible when it does.
Huge drops in the market are not uncommon. Drops of near 50% have occurred 3 times in the past 40 years. If you're not prepared to handle it, get out of equities.
It's like people can't think beyond a 3 year chart. If you're a day or swing trader, don't worry about it. If you're a long term investor, pull it together and understand that these things happen. Drops like this are the perfect buying opportunity.
Of course, if you have a weak stomach and panicky nature, you probably sold everything at the bottom and missed all the rebound. Stay the course, dollar cost average, and you'll even out perform hedge funds.
It's not magic.
You're right.
Some of us are expecting another big drop soon. Perhaps we're wrong in our prognostication. However, if there is one in the next year or two, having two big drops since last September would have definitely beat the odds of 3/40. That would reek of the market being pumped and dumped like a cheap penny stock.
No you anonymous ignoramus it is not magic. You simply wait for the bottom to arrive in the middle of next year and then buy.
What fucking 'drop like this' are you talking about?
The market is up 50% from being overvalued in March.
This is a rally not a drop.
See you next year at the bottom. I suppose you are invested fully now or just a fucking hypocrite. Enjoy the plunge. You earned it.
That post touched a nerve, eh. Bottom picking is a fools game. The parent poster is correct. I think you need to start looking past YTD charts. It's not a rally when you're still down from the 2007 peak. You're more likely to be wrong than right trying to pick the bottom since markets have more up days than down.
The odds of actually beating market returns are so remote it's not worth it to try. You can do what I did today. Buy. Up day? Buy. Down day? Buy. Next year? Buy. It's pretty simple. Every two weeks, I buy.
Allocation is more important than timing.
Sadly, the last three of you all missed the point. The money that was lost by the boomers can't be replaced. This is what they have been saving for the last 30 years, trying to get some security for their autum years. They have no ability to buy more stocks because they have just had their home equity wiped out, their stock portfolio wiped out, and their continued employment either cut or called into question. And allocation? Well, most of them had just 3 choices in their 401K-- high risk, medium risk, and low risk.
The harsh reality is that these people got screwed. What they were told was a sure thing year after year ended up being nothing, and now they must face their new reality.
good point defender, sad to say.
It is very sad... because their transition from having 'everything' to living a frugal retirement lifestyle will be very difficult.
Nobody told them it was a sure thing. At some point, the issue of personal responsiblity needs to come into play. There are no sure things. People act like these investors have only a 401k. There's a universe of options out there that go beyond the 401k. Your home, your taxable accounts, your bank account, IRAs, Roth, cash in a shoebox, etc...
I keep hearing "those poor baby boomers!" Woe is them! Never mind their parents lived through the great depression, WWII, the early 1970s, early 1980s. It's not like this was some one in a trillion thing. They got greedy and stupid. They took out stupid loans on shit they couldn't afford based on the foundation of sand called their home equity.
Someone put ink on those loans and it was done by choice. Expensive way to learn a lesson. Oh well. That's life.
Let's show a little more respect to 59335; it's not everyday that the chief market strategist for Edward Jones posts on ZH.
Mike Morgan talks about that issue here:
http://maxkeiser.com/2009/09/04/ote17-on-the-edge-with-mike-morgan/
That's when you will see the pitchforks hit the streets..... and Kudlow his ilk will seek a new identity in the newly formed Federal Financial Fraud Protection Program
Fuck J6P...
I hope the rank and file COPS and the MILITARY realize it.
Might not be a bad time to buy Xe stock before it takes a moonshot.
That's one hot potato.
"And just in case you thought 4pm on Friday means Blue Label on the rocks time for HAL9000, you were wrong:"
Absolutely poetic, TD. Or should I say "bidetesque"?
Just like the good old days.....
Goldman Prop Desk captains are going to be partying huge in the Hamptons this weekend.
While the wife begs for attention...
They will be at the beach, trolling for younger and hotter items....
Especially those willing to chug vodka straight out of the bottle, who will do anything and everything to hook up with a man who has "billions under management".... and just scored a quick million by powerjamming ES futures in the span of 3 hours..
heroic!
This vodka tastes fishy.
excellent Marshal!
reminds me of the story of Adam and Eve. As they were walking through the Garden of Eden, Eve spotted a beautiful, rippling stream and was overcome with the desire to go swimming for the very first time. Sprinting towards the stream, Eve dove into the waters as Adam screamed out "Eve, don't do that. Don't go in the water!!". Of course, it was too late as Eve splashed into the stream.
Adam mumbled to himself, "now we will never get that smell out of the water."
I saw this on a bathroom wall, my first week in college: "If girls are made of sugar and spice, and everything nice, why do they taste like tuna fish?" Hey, come on, it's Friday.
Well, I like this post. to be honest, it is better to taste fish most of the time in these trying times. Kepps you fresh and charged.:)
sorry, the last 2 are just creepy.
it's a robo ukrainian thing.
How does one post a chart/image? I can't seem to find any info and the various HTMLs don't work.
Anyone?
must be an approved contributor as I understand.
you can submit articles to zh if you want to be a contributor.
Outstanding Robo!!!! Love the neglected wife to hottie segue.....you're the best!
Dude, you have to get your ass laid - it's getting out of hand.
well, the last picture just crashed my conjecture about slutty blond chicks; and it was my Fermats theorem when it comes to chicks :{
THANK YOU ANDY; yes SHE is THE perfect woman
yep; that's her.
she's the new Sharon Stone IMHO; not that there is anything wrong with the original Sharon Stone ( Sharon if you're reading this; send me a PM :D )
good stuff andy, but no red hair and freckles.....
WHOA! That looks like lead paint!!
Inside the brain of Robot Trader:
http://www.nounaimaker.com/img/Robot+Trader.gif
'H' is Japanese for 'eros'.
Robo loves blondes.
What's that strange white powder all over her left arm?
blow
cheeky...you kill me! I always look forward to your thoughts (though the advanced math stuff is beyond me....got a "b" in calculus in college in the mid 70s but never understood a thing!).
please keep the hits coming. thanks
wow! thanks man; when the opportunity arises for me to say something meaningful and worthwhile; i will, surely, do so. math is beautiful; as long as it is not without meaning or a " background ". Oh; one more thought; the problem with people and mathematics seems to be in the vast number of symbols and notations; but not with the field itself. Most people understand quite well what the equation, or a proof says if presented to them without to many symbols ( not simplified; just written i a different manner )
Hey!!!
Anne!!!
Looks like the STD buffet.
Recall those meetings with top Tarp recipients at the White House? I wasnt at the meeting but my guess tells me the bankers told Obama, look , we need to restore confidence, and the only way we do that is with a higher market and higher equity prices for our companies. So Obama said, ok with the Fed and PPT's help you got a higher market. This will make me look good too - the whole "back from the brink" heroism he often reminds us of.
As a small trader, you can toss out any indicator that is bearish. Toss out bearish EW counts. Toss out MA's. Toss out Overbought momentum. Toss out resistance. Toss out fibonacci retracements. Toss out declining volume. Toss out a bearish divergence. It all means nothing anymore. Any downside is minimal to tease the little guy to get short, then squeeze the shit out of him.
Get long or be wrong by the Obama - Wall Street manipulated bull market.
Or get out and sit in cash. Not the worst thing if you recovered from last year's losses and maybe made a profit. D
There's greedy and greedier.
I think the conversation went more like this:
Ok Comrads, burn it and churn it, I want to make sure the peasants have nothing left.
Tzarist Russia...
bingo
Later on, the press release for the meeting read "in Communist America stock market trades you!"
Apologies for the slashdot meme.
JPM, on Tuesday, had high volume on it's own stock. And guess what that volume is-it's sells. JP was probably given a share# order and just pulled the gunner on the SPYS. And since everyone bailed, there was no counter force against the mindless buying pacman. Volume was really, really low for the long weekend-and that's when the FED and Geithner can help the indices crank up and recover. They were also fighting Tues and Wed-and the result was quite different with real human beings pulling the slots. Also, this may have been lure to have the shorts run in on Tuesday, at which point they get squeezed on the assumed low volume day. Guess who covers the short stocks-the people that own the shares(USG,right?)
A small investment in gunning the SPYS over the technical hurdle can force the shorts to cover and the seller(USG) makes their investment back in spades. I mean really, real unemployment at 16.5 % and USG number at9.7% and we get a 100 pointer?
"I mean really, real unemployment at 16.5 % and USG number at9.7% and we get a 100 pointer?"
If that doesn't scare the shit out of every last trader standing, I don't know what will.
March, April, May and even June when bad news was discounted and stocks were "cheap", I might understand.
A Friday before Labor Day in a traditionally weak month and stocks being supposedly snapped up as "panic buying" sets in.. after we had a streak of 50% upwards.. uhmmm not so much.
They're overdoing it and the more they do it, the more will catch on and cash in their winnings and just sit in cash or buy gold.
Next week HAS to be down at least 200 points or go duck for cover.
No it shouldn't scare the shit out of every trader. Many are playing it lightly right now, going for hit&run opportunities where possible ... and many are and have been possible in the last month. Or ... many possibilities playing short-term mean reversion strategies. You may not like it as it's not "investing". But the objective is making money, right? 200 points up or 200 points down, it doesn't matter.
Real unemployment 21%:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
With $41 of earnings and PEs of 7 at lows,
how about an S&P of 287?
Of course if earnings crater, all bets are off;...
Blue label on the rocks?
I don't care how much money you have it is a shame to put ice in scotch.
Brother.
The last two are men that work for SAC.
Where would I find a file with representative trades from JPM including time, price and volume over the course of a few days in order to analyze the dollars they spend (there is no price given in the screen above). Could the dollar sum of their trades be zero over a realtively small period of time such as one and a half days? Does JPM make many small trades at rising prices and then some big trades on a down tick, but overall profitable or dead even. They would still make a profit from being a liquiity provider. If they just traded with themselves, that would eliminate some of the need for capital.
on Tuesday morning add to short, heavy
http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p89385304000
Anne?
The only thing that matters to the markets is what the banksters' Godzilla bot has programmed in.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Why are so many assuming the direction of the market is due to HFT? Pickpockets can make money no matter which direction the crowd is moving, or whether they are moving at all.
To me the direction is mostly a) random news driven moves that are then exaggerated by HFT or b) banks gunning it to the upside to keep their balance sheet ponzi schemes afloat with the eventual losses covered courtesy of the Fed's taking the other side in their new other derivatives holdings.
What's the matter? Is that not change you can believe in?
There is talk out there that firings and reduced salary expense are is going to spike earnings upward. The theory seems to be that the government supplies the temporary top line growth and with no salary expense, it goes right to the bottom line.
Not sustainable? It is sustainable as long as the government funds the top line. Anyone see an end to that?
I found the stat indicating about 20% of personal income comes from the government interesting. I assume that does NOT include the wages of government employees.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
DAMN ZH will you ban greenbacks - it's that fool Cetin with his Iamned crappy website
Momentum chasing works both ways. I don't see what you're complaining about. If you want stocks to fall just wait a little, and I'm sure they'll be shorting them to the downside in harmony with retail clients bailing out of their stocks.
The last week should be called the rise and fall of the VIX.