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JPM Lowers Q2 GDP Forecast From 4.0% to 3.2%
JPM economist, Michael Feroli, who recently made oily waves by claiming the BP spill effort would actually end up being a boost to US GDP courtesy of all the unemployed people who would be picking off tarballs off the Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida (and soon many more) coasts, has just capitulated and lowered his Q2 GDP from the stratospheric 4.0% to 3.2%. Of course, Feroli now is only massively, as opposed to infinitely, disconnected from reality, as his Q3 and Q4 GDP predictions are at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. Compare these numbers to even permabullish Goldman, which is at 1.5% for both. As JPM is forced to face the music of a now-defunct stimulus, and lower future estimates repeatedly, the follow through into lowered corporate earnings will inevitably follow, and the result will be a drop in EPS for corporates. Couple this with a multiple contraction courtesy of the now-pervasive double dip, and all calls for an undervalued market at a 11x multiple become irrelevant (although, admittedly, if the Obama administrartion does nuke the GoM, the tens of millions hired to collect radioactive rain and fallout will certainly result in an immediate GDP doubling).
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Lies, more lies and chinese type statistics!
Updated daily, this chart clearly shows the US has been in a recession since the beginning of the year and it is worsening.
http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html
That's a good site. If they are correct in their forecasts, like the last 5 years, we are going back down again with a slow grind.
June GDP in Europe has spiked. Just got some machine building en production numbers. Everything is up +- 5.3%, but when we looked into the numbers, it was mostly because to price increases.
Now the industry is seeing some improvement, they all try to inforce a price increase because... wel because almost every big company in Europe is flat broke and in need of money.
Inflation 2.6%? See you later in August Mr. Inflation! We'll be up to 6% easy!
The third look at Q1 GDP was revised down (especially the consumer), with most of the remaining growth based upon inventory - to 2.7%. Clearly business slowed into Q2, especially the latter part. Huh, I want want he's smokin'...
And think of the genetic mutations from nuking the well. They're essential for evolution you know. All sorts of novel beings could come out, and very few would be Godzilla like.
Really, how many cave dwellers are there still, opposing evolution in this day and age?
Bring. It. On.
Our old friend the Broken Window Fallacy resurfaces. Surely we can all become rich by simply flooding the ocean with oil and spending our days and nights picking up tarballs! It's foolproof!
Well, mix it in with Quantitative Easing, and I reckon you've got a winning combination.
Those tar balls are going to come in handy when it is time to tar and feather the US political class...
Where is that fat fucking Dodd anyway?
Yeah at this rate BK states will be demanding their share of the disasters.
California really needs a major earthquake, right dammit now.
Don't forget all the folks/corporations accelerating their capital gains into 2010 to avoid the expiration of lower capital gains tax rates......
JPM is pricing in 4 times the increase in capex investment over Q1 for the next 3 quarters. I seriously doubt that.
The final Q2 number will probably be under 2% and the Q3 final number will be negative almost guaranteed..
michael feroli is a stupidass quack who should be jailed for economic malpractice....that foolish canard about the broken window theory of economic growth was demolished in the 19th century as an absurd fallacy....he can shove his tarballs up his ass and down his throat....
he is the trailer trash of economics....
RALLY TIME!
So... they say 3% GDP growth, huh? Since the feds are deficit spending to the tune of 11% of GDP, I guess that means organic GDP growth is -8%. Nice. Though I must say, in their defense, that we may not be overspending by 11%... it's kinda hard to tell without a frickin' federal budget!!! Somebody just kill me now, please...
All will be well my friend... The various States are getting their fiscal senses again (albeit slowly) which bodes well for the long-term... On a Federal Level- don't forget that we have the Constitution, which is worth 100 Trillion.
When the 50 crosses below the 200 DMA, it will be the ultimate time to get long (after a few days)...Walmart at a 3.8% yield, and Lilly at a 5.4% yield???? Are you kidding? Time to short Bonds and Buy stocks- The US economy is doing just fine. People are spending and saving in a prudent way... A simple adjustment is going on, that's all.
Everybody thinks the world is ending, and guess what? the Sun will rise in the East tomorrow.
You must be part of a failed genetic experiment, or something like that.
The sun will rise from the east was just about the only correct statement in your entire post.
What the Hell planet do you live on anyway?
GDP Forecasts Are Like Penis Measuring Contests
Every one is +8 until the ruler comes out...
An increase from 2.7% to 3.2% eh?
Crack don't smoke itself.
Tyler, Tyler, Tyler. Are you sure you didn't see a minus sign in front of the 3.0% and 3.5%?
P.S. Thanks for a fun year on the best financial blog around.
Is that you Harry Wanger?...Is this me?...
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