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JPM Lowers Q2 GDP For Second Time In A Week, Warns Of A "Severe Downgrade" To Forecast In Case Of A Technical Default (No, Really)
And to think they cut it from 3% to 2.5% just a week ago. Michael Feroli, take it away...
Revising down Q2 GDP, again
When we revised down our estimate of Q2 GDP growth last week to 2.5% we noted that the risks to this quarter were still to the downside. Given the hard activity data we've received since then -- particularly the auto sales and construction report -- it looks like those downside risks are being realized, and we are lowering our Q2 projection to 2.0%. Even with this revision we'd assess the risks as still a little to the downside. Most of our downward revision in Q2 is located in consumer spending, where we think growth this quarter is tracking close to 1.5%. If our new estimate for Q2 is realized, GDP growth relative to a year-ago would be only 2.4%, implying almost no closing of the output gap over the past year -- an abysmal performance given that the output gap is arguably greater than 5% of potential GDP, or less arguably, that there are still almost 14 million unemployed workers.
As always, the more important issue is what happens next quarter. We are leaving our Q3 GDP call at 3.0%. In last week's revision we noted some upside risk to the next quarter call, based in part on the potential for a bounceback in manufacturing and motor vehicle production as Japanese supply chains normalized. Risks are becoming more balanced. Guidance on Q3 auto production -- while still upbeat -- appears to be turning a little less bullish. More generally, we need to stay alert to whether weaker first half growth feeds into materially softer labor market activity -- the one area where first half economic performance was solid -- which could in turn propagate the current soft patch on into the second half. Barring that, our best guess remains that industrial activity rebounds and the second half picks up some after what has been an ill-fated first half.
Our forecast implicitly assumes the debt ceiling issue is resolved in a manner which does not see a technical default of the US Treasury. Of course if that assumption were not to hold all cards would be off the table and we almost certainly have to pencil in a much more severe downgrade to our growth forecast. Our Fed call is unchanged and continues to look for a first hike in 1Q13.
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From the people who tell us 1500 by end of year
1500 is after that technical default.
So what is their estimate of the size of QE3 for Q3? and QE4 for Q4 and so on.
Still too high
unless we increase the debt ceiling that number is going to drop by about 12%. The US/Global economy is now completely dependent on government deficit spending. Maybe it's always been that way.
Unless... hahahaha
true, it's going to happen eventually, it's just a matter of when...
More than that actually. You have to factor in the multiplier of $$. It would be more like 14-15%...
on the verge of great great soft patch
Debt saturation doesn't just get shrugged off. Some elements are finally starting to "get it".
Debt is everywhere, no genuine strategies for reducing materially by TPTB, and nothing can save downward spiral now. Look at housing, employment etc.
Debt does NOT = wealth.
When Equities fall, Gold and Silver fall, when equities rise, gold and silver rise. How is this a safe haven? During Fukushima disaster, GOLD and SLV fell with the market...if it was a safe haven, shouldn't it have risen?
Today, shouldn't SLV have skyrocketed higher to beyond $50 if it was a safe haven? Instead, what happened? The exact opposite!
Challenge to Anyone: Can SOMEBODY tell me why SLV and GLD are moving in sync with equities and WHY they are not rocketing higher as safe haven when the equities collapse?
Precious Metals will be the first thing to plunge when there are rampant margin calls. This has been observed and discussed extensively. That said, precious metals have the unique quality of not being printable by the Federal Reserve.
Exactamundo on the margin calls being met on equities with sales of liquid assets that can get off in time. Very often precious metals.
Wonder how those funds and other cohorts of the financial terrorists feel about their Citi and AIG purchases now?
BTW, where is homeland security with respect to our homegrown financial terrorists?
Still not a very clear reason as to why SLV and GLD move in sync with the equities....margin calls, are you saying they were timed to rise and fall with equities? Can't believe it.
I believe SLV and GLD are part of what Prechter calls "All the Same market theory"....during the 2008 crash and 2009 turn, gold followed equities. GOLD and SLV recent highs marks the third mania....only to tumble to below where they started the climb.
Egad, a prechterite who still has money for internet service.
SLV and GLD are paper. Paper moves with paper. The plunge you expect will come, but gold (not silver) will decouple from GLD and rise. GLD holders will get shivved, along with prechterites.
1. Gold significantly outperformed equities today.
2. Do you really look at day-to-day prices to make your comparisons?
3. A guy like you wouldn't believe it, but there's a large difference between paper silver and physical silver.
4. Good luck with predicting a full return of silver/gold to crisis levels. You really think the financial markets/banking system can withstand such a move in equities?
5. If you are comparing fiat to PM's, you don't really get the point...
Then why is gold not following equities today? Can you explain why gold was at all time highs when the S&P was at 666? I see no evidence of any long term correlations.
Gold was not at a all time high at 666. Do some research you idiot.
You are correct. A market crash is percieved as deflationary, and the price of commodities collapses with it. It is the Feds response to the deflationary crash, ie massive digital printing, which will cause a loss of faith in the currency and make precious metals skyrocket. If this is so, cash is king for now. The key is timing the move out of cash and into commodities when there is proverbial blood in the streets.
Gold was up today, equities were down big. That's not a "correlated", "all the same market" trade.
That's telling you that money was moved out of equities and put to work in gold.
Other things that got hit hard as gold rose: metals, oil, other energies, ags.
Gold did go up, moron, while the market crashed. Stopping being an a hole. I see your posts below. You were acting like you did not know what was going on. The fact of the matter with gold increasing a little and the market crashing, that is a huge move.
He's just a shit magnet, with his ugly avatar. And has absolutely no skin in the game. Of for an Ignore button but there will never be one...
Regardless of what any graph shows, Silver is still worth more than green paper. Go physical and hang on to the shiny stuff.
I disagree because your assumption is based on the fact that it won't fall anymore and will continue to rise. If that did happen, you would be correct. However, social mood has turned negative, and EW waves, which are fibonacci ratio based, show that SLV will crash as it had already passed the pivot zanny point. It will return to below where it started it's climb....$2.50
No, I agree it can fall some more, just dont sweat it too much if you feel that you bought it too high. I think the day still may come when the green paper will be used to bake the bread you bought with the silver.
SLV's going to $2.50?
That is the price silver has to go to for him to break even on his ZSL after decay.
Gold is trading right below all time records that were set only a few weeks ago. It's breaking out now.
And again I repeat: despite a big selloff in equities, gold was up.
Don't bother giving yourself carpal tunnel syndrum Bazook. This website is an echochamber for precious metals salesmen. I do enjoy taking the opportunity to poke a little fun on here from time to time.
It seems to me that they are both controlled by the same computer algorithims and HFT. The SLV and GLD are set to supression, while the equities are set to flotation. When equities fall, the SLV and GLD are supressed and seem to move in tandem with the equities. When equities rise, it seems like they let the SLV and GLD float up slowly with them as there is less danger of a breakout.
I'm no trader though, just my amatuerish tin foil hat take. Please correct if this is impossible or wrong for whatever reason.
You may be an amateur...but wisdom makes-up for the wrong kind of experience often demonstrated here.
Don't listen to anyone who tries to argue technicals or fundamentals in a centrally planned market. TPTB money controls the direction of every manipulated market and every piece of data in order to sway political support and control the masses. Today's market action was great theatre from TPTB - and QE3 is as certain as the rising of the sun. The coordinated world printing presses will stop when TBTP have determined that they are ready to crash the system and move on to the next stage of the privatization of sovereign wealth (and sovereignty itself).
T.E.I.N. everyone!
no sense in trying to rationalize what is irrational. The price movements on SLV and GLD are not representative of true investor flights to safety. Watch the /SI and GC contracts here (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/) and follow the inventories here (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/nymex-daily-reports.html).
ZeroHedge introduced the idea of two prices for commodities. SLV and GLD are for the peasants while the physical contracts (which cost more now because of margin hikes) are the prices for the big boys.
With the info that is out now on the metals manipulation, the derivatives are no longer "flights to saftey". The derivative prices will tank when margins are hiked on the underlying, so why buy a derivative to preserve your wealth when A) the currency you get when you sell it is depreciating and B) the price is adjusted as it "finds" the true price of the metal (which is manipulated regularly with margin hikes.
And through it all, Gold is trading right near record highs that it set only a few weeks ago despite a one month equities sell off and a big hit to the market today, not seen since August 2010.
Gold is where wealth and savings are being moved. In a big way. Demand for physical is at records.
And there's little wonder: The essence of it is nobody with wealth to protect trusts the claque of banksters, ministers, poilticians and chairmen anymore! They don't have your interest at heart, in fact the opposite: evidence is clear that they are confiscating wealth at every opportunity. They are hell bent on competitive currency devaluations and creating inflation in order to escape debt. Your money isn't safe. But your gold is
ummmm. Funny thing that current economic policy will either lead to hyperinflatio or deflation. I agree that both are possible at this point, but either way there will be instability. Gold works better against the first scenario, but I don't think it will be a terrible asset under the second, so risk/reward still warrants holding some.
The funny thing is the move down today could have been just as easily a move up. You can't compete against a printing press when there are no bond vigilentes around, they are in total control until they aren't. The FED is everywhere hiding the fallout in modern finance by hyper-levering an already severely levered economy. May these people rot in hell for the life they will hand off to my children.
I will project the Gold bottom: $490 per ounce. By 2016. Based on EW analysis, Gold has completed it's abc correction and will decline. There will be several support stop points, but i'm keeping gold on the waiting list until sub $500.
Go ahead, all of you who recently bought gold, get pissed off at me...I don't care because I believe Gold has far more to fall.
$490 price in what currency because it sure as hell won't be USD.
I'm a Deflationist, so my study shows me that credit implosion will make every physical dollar more precious and have higher buying power. I believe the USD will climb to unseen levels.
Remember, credit and the physical dollar bill are not the exact same. Credit disappears with debt distruction but the remaining dollars will be more coveted, hoarded, in demand. There is only about $970 billion in physical dollar circulation and many, many trillions in credit. When credit disappears, like since 2007, companies will not want to part with their dollars by not hiring, banks will not want to part with their dollars by not lending, consumers will not want to part with their dollars by not borrowing.
Look at the Yen, it used to be 120 back before their deflationary collapse, now it will soon be below 80. The dollar will have same strengthening.
You have some nice posts. I dont agree with everying, but you take the time to post your thoughts. Its appreciated.
There are a few on these boards who confuse the two. I have also seen people post that a default by the US Gov equates with a decline in value of the dollar just because of the enduring phrase "full faith and credit...."
Might want to keep the old saw that commodities ultimately return to the cost of production. Is the dollar a commodity? If so, what is the cost of production? What do you think would happen to counterfeiting volumes in a dollar shortage environment? How quickly could that $970 billion base be expanded by the Fed's own printing press? If people start hoarding dollars out of fear, what will they do with their gold? Time will tell. Let's revisit the question after QE5.
In your same post, you discuss paper currency v. credit and then reference the JPY/USD relationship to provide the Yen has strengthened - against another fiat currency?
I used to be a deflationist. I no longer believe that in a crack-up-boom collapse of the credit (ya-da, ya-da on how that that's deflationary) system how people will view physical dollar bills are worth more. When people realize that the currency system in based upon credit/debt-money, they will not turn to more debt-money. They will turn to actual value. It may seem a bit OT, but it's not: what's the difference in the cost to make a $100 FRN and a $1 FRN? What will happen to the Fed balance sheet in a deflationary collapse?
You think farmers will be willing to sell their food to people for a smaller number of linen and cotton pieces? Nah.
The US government controls the value of the dollar. And the US government currently owes more than $14T, and that amount is rapidly rising. There is no way that the US government is going to permit deflation to happen.
Prechter seems to be an almost perfect contrarian indicator. He has lost more money for his followers than anyone I can think of. The only people who are going to notice a shortage of dollars are the people who follow his advice.
Silver is a widely used industrial metal. It can't be mined for $2.50 an ounce, so your theory there is profoundly inaccurate. As for the dollar becoming precious to hold on to, you ignore the obvious fatal fiat "grim reaper", which is compound interest on the debt. It's mathematically impossible to sustain the dollar as a viable currency, as many defunct fiat civilizations have painfully discovered...
This would be a big surprise for the Central Bank of Mexico that just tucked away 96 tons in Q1. Or even the Central Bank of India that bought at $1000. Don't fight the Fed aka don't fight the central banks.
Okay people, that's all the warning you are going to get.
QE3 will be announced within the next 5 days.
tick tick tick...
Not until we see some front-running.
Classic pump and dump.
Or is it dump and pump?
And we believe them why?
JPM bonuses will not be negatively impacted.
sold my 10 /es short from 26.5. sold at 13.0
sold my 10 /es short from 26.5. sold at 13.0
last week, i thought the hike was coming 2H, 2012. now, it is "unchanged" 1Q, 2013.
i must have my freaking forecasts confused. zH hazard?
undaunted, slewie forecasts that the next forecast will be unchanged, hike due 2Q 2013.
JPM sure puts a lot of faith in auto production and Japanese supply chain impact for their Q3 forecast. 3%? That'll be coming down too.
If debt ceiling is not raised then they will have to cut growth forecasts even further? Isn't that an oxymoron-- you can't have growth out of debt-- it just doesn't work because it beceomes worse than a zerosum game because of what interest does to the overall debt amount. It should actually read as the growth in the ponzi-meter.
they could mess nicely with the cds guys by triggering a credit event. I think there are like 10 treasuries in total trading below par
Where is all this magical growth coming from? Wall Street?
First of all, moron, gold did go up. So stop being an a hole. Silver is different since it is tied in with the economy. Gold did not have to explode upward. By going up a little and the market crashing, the same affect occurred.
A big reason gold continues its relentless surge in the face of a stock selloff:
There have been too many unpleasant surprises imposed by central banks on their citizens. And nobody has confidence that they won;t become a victim of sudden devaluations (Belarus this week, dollar nearing record lows), bond haircuts (the chorus chant is rising and Eurozone is talking the unthinkable lately), capital controls (EM economies, coming to a developed nation near you).
In the US the negative interest rate environment is reason enough alone to hold gold: any cash or bonds will make you a "Boiled Frog", to paraphrase Bill Gross from today. Your buying power will get crushed if you trust. Only gold can preserve that.
I was just at wells fargo talking to someone whose family is there in Belarus. There is no food on the shelves. Her friend just bought 10 bottles of instant coffee for her whole month's salary. People are going out to the villages to eat. This is no bullshit. Real estate has gone up in cost. No one can afford anything. She said in the 90s when it happened with the Russian default, the city people survived by going to the country to trade money for food since there was no food in the stores. That could very well happen here. It happened like lightening there. My wife is on the way to Costco right now to buy canned food.
It should be pointed out that the situation in Belarus is a bit different than might play out elsewhere. Belarus still functions for all practical purposes as a communist country, a mini-Soviet Union - albeit without the ICBM's. Belarus' agriculture sector is still collectivized and most industry is owned/controlled by the state. Last week when they devalued their currency, they also put in price controls on food, so everyone buys the food on the cheap before further currency devaluations. Price controls discourage food production. Hyperinflation in the West is likely to look a little different. Price controls would be difficult to implement, so you'll see stores stocked full with stuff people can't afford.
Rather than buy a bunch of food that will rot, you're better off investing in favorite flavor of inflation hedge: precious metals, land, other commodities, etc...
If you ever needed proof of more QE coming in Q3 (I know, we didn't), it's that JP Morgan didn't revise their Q3 GDP estimate of 3.0%.
What does GDP have to do with QE3? There doesn't seem to be any correlation between QE and GDP as far as I can tell. GDP has been melting down the last few months during QEII, why would it change with QEIII?
Is GDP measured in inflation adjusted dollars? With high enough inflation and devaluation of the dollar we could see the GDP rise as QE3 is implemented.
10 year yield drops below 3%
TIPS spread drops
Treasury futures halve the chance of a March 2012 rate hike during this past month
this jpm clown gets paid to apply a mean reversion based model to an unstable economy. what a clown.
The paper markets (GLD, SLV) are for those who want to bet on the movement in the price of metals. If that is your game play. If you want to protect yourself though you must buy the physical. After QE3 (or QE50) there will be a period in which the last big shots pull the last of the physical from GLD and then those who have gold will have it and those who own GLD will own...paper. That will not be what you will want at that point.
Since deflation would require the FED to self impose great pain I do not see how it is possible with an easy, painless, simple option....printing more.... available. Hyperinflation it will be. If you believe that you must hold physical gold.
Silver could be $33 in no time and has a shot at $24. Own some physical, but shorting paper silver (ZSL) seems like a decent trade in the near term.
The whiff of deflation is back and it should scare folks. The Fed may be reluctant to do what is required to sufficiently beat deflation. Hedging bets seems prudent.
I am confused, and think I will just watch.
"As always, the more important issue is what happens next quarter. We are leaving our Q3 GDP call at 3.0%.
Hey hey, Wall Street bullshit at its best - the future is always bright, tomorow's data is not important except when it "beats" our triple downgraded worst case scenario projection. Expect NFP to comfortably beat the 100k Goldman projection on Friday, and hail the bulls' (balls) :)
Hey, cut to the chase and revise to minus 2 (-2%) percent. That way it will at least be close.