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JPMorgan: "The Likelihood That The Portuguese Government Will Fall This Week Looks High"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There has been a lot of speculation about just what the JPMorgan note that claims the Portuguese government can fall as soon as tomorrow, says. The speculation can now end. "The likelihood that the Portuguese government will fall this week looks high. This suggests that the sovereign will likely access the EFSF in the near term, despite the current government's efforts to avoid this outcome." Incidentally if JPM is right, the market better have priced in the next insolvent domino to drop in Europe, although judging by where the EURUSD is these days, the market decided to take a long hard sabbatical about 2 weeks ago.

From JPM:

Portuguese government could fall tomorrow: EFSF access increasingly likely

Faced with increasing market pressure, the Portuguese government a couple of weeks ago announced a new set of fiscal measures aimed at achieving its ambitious plan to push the deficit to 2% of GDP by 2013. The new plan included additional tightening measures worth 0.8%-pts of GDP for 2011, and detailed spending cuts and revenue-boosting measures worth a total of 2.5%-pts of GDP for 2012 and 1.2%-pts of GDP in 2013. The plan was spelled out more clearly yesterday, when the finance ministry published its latest update of the Stability and Growth Program (see table below). According to the program, the government will achieve a rapid deficit reduction thanks to front-loaded tightening, which will push down the primary balance by 3.4%-pts of GDP this year and 2.4%-pts next year. Partly in response to the new measures, the government lowered its growth projections, and now sees GDP contracting 0.9% this year and growing at a modest rate over the following two years.
 
The announcement of the new measures received the blessing of the EC, the ECB and the European Council, but was not welcomed by the main opposition party in Portugal, the centre-right Social Democrats, which have blamed the government for acting without informing them in time. This poses a clear challenge as the current Socialist government led by prime minister José Sócrates is a minority government.
 
It looks like the Portuguese parliament will vote on the new fiscal plan tomorrow. Prime minister Sócrates has already announced that, if the plan is rejected, he will resign, something that will lead to a general election. The prime minister has been attempting to find a compromise with the opposition, saying that the current plan could be discussed and amended as needed, but the opposition does not seem to buy into this. The head of the Social Democrats Passos Coelho, who enjoys a lead in opinion polls, has been critical of the measures, despite mentioning that he fully supports Portugal's deficit-reduction targets. This seems to suggest that his party would likely implement an equally austere plan, but in a new government structure.
 
The likelihood that the Portuguese government will fall this week looks high. This suggests that the sovereign will likely access the EFSF in the near term, despite the current government's efforts to avoid this outcome.

 

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Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:16 | 1086679 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Failure is everywhere, Fed Fisher states today that US faces insolvency,blah, blah, blah, but there is hope.  Captain Obvious. It won't be long before this all blows up.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:18 | 1086696 nevadan
nevadan's picture

There's nothing to worry about.  JCT will be along shortly to announce that he will probably raise interest rates when it seems appropriate.  It's all good.  Euro up.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:36 | 1086798 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

What does this do for precious metals? Is it bearish for PM then since dollar is going up?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:38 | 1086803 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Buy and hold. Can't go wrong with that one.

Alternatively you could put your cash in a Portuguese bank...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:47 | 1086855 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I had even odds that Spain would go down a year ago. What's with those guys? That's when the Roman candles will come out.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1086867 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Portugal goes down, then it's Spain, Ireland, Greece, and Italy. After all, misery loves company.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:15 | 1086969 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Census Detroit........Population lowest since 1910....Government souce leaked to newspaper.......i knew things were bad, but not that bad..

 

http://nakedempire2.blogspot.com/

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:29 | 1087520 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Detroit down the toilet? ...proof what a 'success' the Democrats (socialism) is for your community

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:15 | 1086968 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Nothing material will go down and certainly not the entire system. Every big bank and concern in the world is dependant on this system as well as the sheep.   This will go on for a long, long time as they strip us bare.  The middle class will be totally asset stripped and only when that is done does this end.  The end will be nothing more than a slave state dressed up through mass media as the new fairness..  Nothing changes..

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:54 | 1089084 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:39 | 1087046 Shocker
Shocker's picture

I'm Really surprised we have not joined them to be honest. We are in extremely rough shape but I guess people are too busy eating, and watching tv to notice.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

 

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 02:16 | 1088951 Clancy
Clancy's picture

The Sinking of Lusitania, Part II

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:52 | 1086883 CD
CD's picture

I dunno abou the short term effect on the USDX, but THIS certainly does not look like good news for any PMs:

"On March 15, 2011, the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) advised the CFTC that they had approved J.P. Morgan's application to become a licensed vault facility, using a "self-certification" process. The newly licensed vault, located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, NY, NY, is ready to roll as both “weighmaster” and depository, for delivery of gold, silver, platinum and palladium contracts, as of March 17, 2011, two days later."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jp-morgan-now-make-and-take-delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts?source=feed

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:58 | 1086905 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

The dayI store my goods with JP Morgan Chase is the day that I get surgery to become a woman. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:02 | 1086922 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

That would be the only escape plan.  Once you get in with bed with JPM, they got you by the balls....

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:20 | 1086988 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Does this skirt make my adam's apple look big?  Fuck JP Morgan. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:09 | 1087616 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

No, but it does make you look like Ann Coulter.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 19:02 | 1087751 Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

LOL

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:17 | 1086981 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

"using a "self-certification" process"

 

Translation: 'Trust us, we have your gold right here... no need to worry. But don't try and withdraw it.'

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:05 | 1087437 SilverBoy
SilverBoy's picture

Third party certificates cost more because, well a third party actual verify the accuracy of the information.

Self certification - How Lame

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:06 | 1087185 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I wonder if they'll take gold colored tungsten bars too.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:31 | 1088386 eftian
eftian's picture

No, thats what they`ll deliver!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:31 | 1087300 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Whoops didn't see that..

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:52 | 1087395 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 "self-certification"=a fox who certifies himself to be a hen-house guardian. This sucks; and it's pretty blatant.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:23 | 1087507 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

kind of like being "the banker" in Monopoly?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:33 | 1087297 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Something interesting about JPM and PMs.  I'd say the big players are getting ready for something in metals...bullish for PMs:

Will JP Morgan Now Make and Take 'Delivery' of Its Own Silver Shorts?

"The process of being approved as a licensed vault or weigh-master/assayer for the NYMEX/COMEX futures exchange...

...will ordinarily consume considerably more than 45 days.


On March 15, 2011, the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) advised the CFTC that they had approved J.P. Morgan's application to become a licensed vault facility, using a "self-certification" process. The newly licensed vault, located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, NY, NY, is ready to roll as both “weighmaster” and depository, for delivery of gold, silver, platinum and palladium contracts, as of March 17, 2011, two days later."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jp-morgan-now-make-and-take-...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:48 | 1087377 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Whoops. that one went right by me. "self-certification"; WTF? I don't like this.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:37 | 1086799 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

The failure of Portugal is inevitable, just like all the rest.

The problem is solvency, ain't no one raising rates anytime soon...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:54 | 1086886 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

I suspect there is a big problem with the planned asset sales.  I suspect when they look at the accounts of these state owned entities and realize what they look like under international accounting standards for corporate entities, they realize the market will be horrified, so they are orchestrating an escape route, leaving another group can come it and take responsibility for the mess.

Portugal has been living the life since they joined the Euro, basically enjoying living standards far higher than their economy could support, and now it's coming apart at the seams.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 20:50 | 1088101 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"I suspect there is a big problem with the planned asset sales."

See, if they had a more proactive Federal Reserve Bank like we do, there wouldn't be a problem at all.  Ours will buy anything.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:58 | 1086907 pendragon
pendragon's picture

yes only counted 6 times so far in the last week. the broken record

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:36 | 1086794 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

The Euro has been rising on the back of a US$ carry-trade.  We all know that trade works....until it doesn't.  Witness the Yen.  Who knows, maybe we'll have the G-7 intervening to stabilize the Euro sometime later this Spring.  /sarc

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:46 | 1086843 redpill
redpill's picture

The level of insolvencies is not of a level where it would impact human health, please move along.

/Tepco

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:31 | 1087298 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Really Sparky, it's always,

"Better then Expected!"

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:15 | 1086684 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Hopefully Portugal responds by saying the liklihood that JP Morgan remains in a state of insolvency papered over by mark-to-horseshit accounting gimmicks and public sector welfare is 100%.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:25 | 1086735 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Nice. Low blow, well deserved.

ORI

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:27 | 1086745 DutchTreat
DutchTreat's picture

ROFLMAO! Retweeted by Tyler.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:03 | 1086921 bbaez
bbaez's picture

Ending Corparate Welfare & Corporate Tax Loopholes could end American budget woes couldn't it?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:26 | 1087010 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Taxing the shit out of world-destroying derivatives would allow caviar binges for to every man, woman and child alive.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:17 | 1086685 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

where's portugal?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:18 | 1086697 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Just North West of Libya.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:29 | 1086738 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Beside Spain , which is collapsing

Which is beside France which is collapsing

Which is beside Germany which is collapsing

Which is beside Eastern Europe which has collapsed

Which is above Italy which is collapsing

Which is above north Africa which is right fucked up

which is beside North America which is completely fucked up

Which is beside Japan which is melting

Which is beside China which is dissolving

 

#winning

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:28 | 1086756 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Yeah, but aside from that everything is fine, right?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:39 | 1086813 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Absolutely marvellous, looking good for a rally...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1086865 redpill
redpill's picture

Positively bullshit, er I mean, bullish!  BTFD on max margin, pour Krystal over your naked girlfriends in the hottub and celebrate silver coiners getting thrown in prison as our country gets sold down the river.  Party like it's 1929!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:02 | 1086923 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Are we having a volume-less melt-up in metals today? Or is that only strictly for equities?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:12 | 1086960 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Nope, I'm buying...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:42 | 1086827 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Absolutely!!! And the dumpster diving technical charting (its very complex and hard to understand  so it must be right)... Clearly indicates that the market is about to pop higher in the short, medium, and basically to infinity and beyond.... BUY BUY BUY!!  BOOYA!!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:51 | 1086871 knukles
knukles's picture

Depends on where you live.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:19 | 1086983 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Yes, antartica looks to be in good shape-but other continents are screwed.  Can millions of penguins really be wrong?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1086863 DosZap
DosZap's picture

That whole list(sans one IMHO), Germany are set to bowl over anytime.

Germany is better off that all the rest combined.

If they had half a brain the would drop the Euro, and go back to the mark.

The Euro is hitting the cement as well,  just be a bit longer, when 2-3 of these bite the dust,par-t is oVah.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:38 | 1087038 gall batter
gall batter's picture

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:53 | 1087391 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

now thats funny lololol

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:37 | 1088214 lead salad
lead salad's picture

DOW 25,000!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:27 | 1086750 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Its in the country of Wyoming

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:30 | 1086770 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Portugal and Spain are the northernmost countries of the Magreb.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:15 | 1086917 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

Even Jim Morrison once sang "silver and gold in the Mountains of Spain"...  The Chinese got that silver and gold a long time ago and the Brits not to be out-silvered by the Chinese gave them opium and a nice set of aptly named Opium Wars. Come to think of it... Should Colombia and Bolivia pay for their imports with cocaine? Boliva is sitting on its lithium as privy eyes watch. Oh, wait, last time I checked cocaine and cannabis were illegal drugs!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:07 | 1086937 Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

 

 'where's portugal?

Answer: Portugal is located within the west of Spain.

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:45 | 1087073 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Somewhere between a rock and a hard place...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:18 | 1086689 The Aviator
The Aviator's picture

Lets make JP Morgan fall this week!

Crash JP Morgan, Charge Silver!!

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/03/crash-jp-morgan-charge-silver....

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:35 | 1086789 Debtless
Debtless's picture

After seeing this post on every ZH article today I finally bit and visited your site. My first response is gee i can't read this - since the ability to see blue text on black is one that escapes me. As for the content of your site - let's all use a JPMorgan credit card to buy silver from Apmex...I say not interested. Why? Because Apmex prices are too high over spot - as most already know. As for your plan with JPM and using their card...no again. IMHO this is not the way to go against the EE. Pull your money out of JPM, and buy real assets like everyone else. Silver's doing just fine, I do recommend it.

 

Stop spamming guy - or find a better premise. Or at least a better site designer.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:13 | 1086965 DollarMenu
DollarMenu's picture

+1

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:26 | 1087275 Cow
Cow's picture

Everybody seems to have a blog to pump.  You ain't got a blog, you're nobody, I guess.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 19:57 | 1087562 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

got no blog so i'm a nothing but worked out i'm richer than more half the Govts in Europe... combined!  ....feeling minted  ;)

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:17 | 1086693 mdwagner
mdwagner's picture

What is the likelihood that MSM covers this story if it happens?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:24 | 1086722 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Zero. Most don't even know where it is on a map.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:57 | 1086895 Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

Unless the fall of Portugal's government registers as a 9.0 quake, causes a 10m tsunami, destroys 4 nuclear reactors, rants about winning and tiger blood, crushes rebels in Libya, postpones the Royal Wedding, pre-empts the final 4 playoffs or can be blamed on Obama's Brazilian vacation, the MSM audience will never know it happens.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:11 | 1087196 edotabin
edotabin's picture

Hey man! I tried tigerblood and I can now definitely say I am "winning". It helped me see the majesty, charisma and leadership qualities of van Rompuy.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:11 | 1087202 edotabin
edotabin's picture

..........double post

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:19 | 1086694 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

So euro surge, markets rally? S.S.D.D?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:20 | 1086703 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Next stop: Spain. Does anyone remember the web of debt introduced by WSJ (if I remember correctly). Spain has a heavy exposure to Portugal and a shitload of other well known and reasonably well hidden problems which "the market" is ignoring completely in this latest bonanza.

03-22 13:30: S&P says number of Portuguese borrowers classified as in default continued to increase
Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:55 | 1086888 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

Berlusconi is the fatest prey. 1.7 bn. € ....

Hedgies gonna short the shit out of him ....

 

Jean-Claude Tricheur is generous ....

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:55 | 1086889 burncycl
burncycl's picture

For your humor and to better understand the web of debt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:23 | 1086711 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

EUR/USD last high 1.4281 we're close to that level! If Portugal goes  it will fall, or not?!?! :)))

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:41 | 1087336 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Come on Portugal, we're rooting for ya; just roll over and stick those short little legs up in the air; we need some love for the dollar here.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:22 | 1086715 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Portugal has decided to merge with Libya. Q-daffy will henceforth personally guaranty all its bond issues as back up and purchase anything nobody else wants to pick up. Blank check indefinitely. Sarkozy is quaking in his shoes as Q-daffy sneaks an ace into the EU rat pack.

(I sould sell my services to Q-daffy as consultant to counter coalition solidarity, increase it's inherent infighting. Maybe he'll give me a thorough bred race camel as present). 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:27 | 1086739 youngman
youngman's picture

If Gadaffi brings his 70 billion in gold...I would merge with him...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:36 | 1086796 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Too late, Donald Trump already screwed him.  They would make an ugly baby.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:05 | 1086928 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

WWCD?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:22 | 1086717 Tulli
Tulli's picture

This is far from new.

Yes, the Portuguese government will fall tomorrow. Yes, this is a great excuse for a bailout. Yes, the Kool aid rules. Yes, this will be a cool "motive" for a EUR retrace and a USDX te mporary relief rally (short lived). 

So what?

Nothing. 

Move along, nothing to see here....

Come next week, the Portuguese bailout is priced in, shorts will cover in the PSI-20 market, and Portugal will get a new government.

Next in line - Spain. That is another ball game, and THEN is when it starts getting more interesting.

Question for ZH'ers: How many EU Countries will drink the Kool Aid before Germany capitulates and decides to allow the formation of the United States of Europe?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:38 | 1086764 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

The government is not going to fail tomorrow.  More MAD. Opposition caves and Trishay comes to the rescue, all of which is already priced in.  Bloomberg already told uas that the market can never go down again, like evah!!

NEXT!

 See? Here's the current headlines on Bloomberg's website:

All Clear Signal Sounded as Global Markets Shrug Off Multiple Black Swans

 

Irish, Portuguese Bonds Sink on Debt Concern; Euro Falls, Stocks Retreat

 Note that the 'All Clear' article is the top story and has been there all day as the top story.  The Portugese thing is the next article down which means the 'All Clear' article very clearly still trumps the Portugese article.  What more data can I provide to prove my point?

P.S. My linky's are no worky.  Sorry

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aE.BOhL.31OI&pos=1

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOn73dRY4kV4&pos=2

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:16 | 1086961 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

ALERT!  The ordering of the aforementioned articles has switched.  Portugal is now in position 1 and the 'All Clear' article is in position 2.  This implies that JPM has a very big short on portugese bonds to cover ahead of the vote tomorrow.  Expect a sharp correction downward followed by a sharp correction upward leaving us roughly where we are right now.

 

CORRECTION: The Warren Buffet video 'Economy is getting better every month' moved to position one in the video list.  We are revising our forecast.  There will be a sharp correction down, followed by a sharp correction up followed by a sharp rally on no volume. Revised SPX target of 1320.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:40 | 1086822 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you mean "the United States of France," oui, oui?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:22 | 1086720 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

The chance of injury however depends on from high one falls.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:24 | 1086723 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

The euro was bound to be a failure. The only option they have is to turn the Confederation into a federation. That is unlikely to happen as right wing nationalism is on the rise in france,Spain,England,Spain,Italy,Germany,Portugal etc. So the EU global experiment will die and I will not shed no tears.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:13 | 1087226 cornedmutton
cornedmutton's picture

"[...]I will not shed no tears."

Double negative...sooooo, you will shed tears? Salty ones?

(Please collect them in a jar and send them to me so that I may sprinkle them about like pixie dust.)

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:23 | 1086727 tallen
tallen's picture

Why would the opposition vote in favour as if they vote not in favour and it doesn't get passed they have a chance of getting in power because he's stepping down.

It's a win win for the opposition. Vote no, get into government and beat the bond holders. :D

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:25 | 1086728 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Is JP Morgan predicting the fall, or planning the fall?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:27 | 1086743 tallen
tallen's picture

Both.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:58 | 1086898 zaknick
zaknick's picture

Yep.

Why? Well their getting ready to top up their AAA rated war monster machine:

they're getting ready to raise the debt ceiling in CONgress

and the oily Arabs are NOT happy with the 666 bankster color revolutions and are defecting.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:03 | 1086929 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Planning and shorting the fall..

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:25 | 1086729 Hansel
Hansel's picture

#winning

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:37 | 1086742 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

Fall?  Fail?  Bankrupt?

No such thing in our binary database currency world.

The IMF nearly needs to rob some money from taxpayers in the U.S. and Europe.

The FED can send them some 101010001010010's indefinitely.

It's kind of funny to hear Americans and Germans gripe about the Greeks that don't pay their taxes.

How long do you have to be robbed (ostensibly legally) to pay for other people's gains before you say "Uncle"?

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:21 | 1086999 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i don't see the problem here, either, eb.

hi. these portugese may have invented kick the political can down the road of the election cycle.  just All Starz!  yesteday, they all went to "fuk you" over the idea of freezing pension benefits already being paid.  the rhetoric was fantabulous, even in translation. 

meanwhile the EU and the debt holders are demanding austerity measures of such and such scale and that the goobermint get things under fiscal control now.

lisbon, which is hard to say w/o lisbing (capitol since 1255), may be taking a page from the japanese, here, as they raise their wine and apertif glasses in a truly national "deal with it, you fuking moronic shitheaded asswipes!"

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:29 | 1086752 Malaespina
Malaespina's picture

If Portugal fails, then Spain is next

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:33 | 1086780 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Spain goes by July. When will theybup the bailout fund?

Markets love bailouts.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:52 | 1086878 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I'd like to see the PIIGS gang up and pull an Iceland.

Instead, they're getting picked off one by one by the EU bullies. There's going to be consequences anyway, so maybe the more pushback there is, the less likely another fiat system will be shoved down everyone's throats. The banks gotta pay too.

We're next.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:29 | 1086760 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

muito mal

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:30 | 1086763 djsmps
djsmps's picture

It's already priced into the market.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:29 | 1086765 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

Are you telling me that all the bailouts, stress tests, money printing. What ever else these governments did, is all for not. hmmm,who'd a thonk it.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:31 | 1086771 DutchTreat
DutchTreat's picture

I am not surprised  to see that even here many of the US oistriches are eager to point at the EU. 

Enjoy while you still can. The USD/EUR says it all.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:28 | 1087015 HubbleBubbleBen...
HubbleBubbleBenLovesTrouble's picture

True...But don't have the slightest illusion that countries in the EU are much better of than the USA... we are in it, sucked into it, and we're all gonna feel the pain

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:33 | 1086774 DutchTreat
DutchTreat's picture

....

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:31 | 1086775 entendance
entendance's picture

MEANHILE...GERMANY’S RELAPSE IN PRIMITIVE MEDIOCRITY:

http://www.entendance.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=738&p=16155#p16155

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:46 | 1086849 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Are you criticizing Germany for not being a gung ho participant in Libya ? If so, thats about as stupid a sentiment as you can have. If I read your blog wrong, correct me please

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:35 | 1087032 HubbleBubbleBen...
HubbleBubbleBenLovesTrouble's picture

When you think that all countries who are in the Libya-coalition are fighting for democracy, I am calling you naive. As long as there is something to fight for (oil, not democracy) our F16's and F35's will be put into battle. Anything else (Congo, Sudan, Tibet etc etc) is not interesting AT ALL. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:31 | 1086781 Jason T
Jason T's picture

LaRouche says to watch Ireland.  

http://larouchepac.com/node/17805

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:48 | 1086858 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Ireland says to watch the booze

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHo99FKqy7U

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:32 | 1086784 Jigsaw
Jigsaw's picture


The Market would rather own euros, and so would I

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:37 | 1086809 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Good Luck with that Jigsaw!!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:33 | 1086790 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

+500 DOW points

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:34 | 1086791 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Portugal has a prime minister named Sócrates? You would think he would be able to dialogue his way out of this.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:48 | 1086852 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

That's Plato.  Still...he should be able to "take it to the man" better.  I would agree with that.  Ye olde "baffle them with brilliance" thing.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:08 | 1086950 burncycl
burncycl's picture

Or end with some Hemlock.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1086866 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

So long as he doesn't drink from his water bottle while giving the address.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:35 | 1086801 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

I'll bet the JPMorgan report ends in----BTFD.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:38 | 1086805 falak pema
falak pema's picture

We shall create in the EU a second division. Only the good ones play in the Premier League. The Club Med Pigs will play second division with second division money pegged to the real euro. Then we would name Michel Platini head man like for football and sack that sad sack Von Bombast and his leading Lady Shallot of Ashton. Not that things would work much better as fifty percent of european clubs are bottoms up and in the red. C'est la vie! Enjoy the football while it lasts; like the euro. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:39 | 1086817 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

This can NOT be good news for Cristiano Ronaldo

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:38 | 1086806 velobabe
velobabe's picture

probably is going to fall, cause rafa n. got beat by now, number #2, novak d. moving roger federer out of the number two spot last weekend in indian wells, CA.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:37 | 1086807 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

they should hurry and invade Libya

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:44 | 1086836 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Who, the portuguese or the european footballers?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:39 | 1086810 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

**** JPM

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:41 | 1086830 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Heck their leader flat out yesterday said they were not going to push any more austerity and would just default.  I think this has been their plan all along, but get some free money in the meantime before you do.  If they did, who would blame them?  That's probably the best move for a dozen countries right now.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:42 | 1086831 gwar5
gwar5's picture

You're scary good Tyler.

The USD hasn't been a safe haven lately. Does this change things any?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:52 | 1086869 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

When the DXY breaks 70, It should be very interesting

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:59 | 1086900 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Yep, that seems to be the magic number for sure. 

James "it will shock the world" Turk has been saying for a month now the last support is 71-72. After that it's a sack of kittens off the bridge.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:43 | 1086832 johny2
johny2's picture

JPM is a giant vampire leech.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:45 | 1086847 Misean
Misean's picture

I take it that that is not a compliment

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:52 | 1086882 johny2
johny2's picture

Smaller leeches may be offended to being compared to JPM, if they could read.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:43 | 1086834 SDRII
SDRII's picture

distraction from Ireland promising default. This as the FT back to demonizing that goldbug Gaddaffi. Burnett does her best to chime in on those damn horders though as is her style: lightweight

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:46 | 1086850 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I think JPM is now going to make a big derivative move in Euro. The grapevine says it's a good time to short EUR/USD. Apple pie for the HF and hard times for the EU bums.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1086860 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Dimon must be enjoying watching this and making sure he stays ahead of the herd. WTF, JPM must be shut down.

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:51 | 1086868 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

And just on Monday last week the high priest of the europonzi, Mr Rehn, was on the wires telling everybody that Portugal has done great job and has earned the market's confidence. Looool! What he "forgot" to say is that the only buyer is JCT and his plunge protection team. And the next buyer? Tax payers almost everywhere in Europe.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:54 | 1086884 Misean
Misean's picture

Perhaps Obumble was trying to get Brazil to bail out Portugal...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:55 | 1086890 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Pardon the request. Would it be possible to get a story on Obama's whereabouts? When he plans to return? And many mention of his cohorts who escaped the windblown fallout in the US especially Immelt?

Many thanks.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:54 | 1086893 CABO
CABO's picture

What about AUSTRIA??? The Banks are a disaster waiting to happen

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:56 | 1086896 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

To bad it isn't the "Morgue" about to die.
Fuck you JPM...!!!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:00 | 1086912 Jim Billy Bob J...
Jim Billy Bob James IV's picture

No World War III on Obama's watch.

Only Great Global Conflict I (GGCI) in which almost every country in the world is engaged in a civil war against itself.

Change - change you can believe in - change for the sake of change - change one set of bad guys for another set of bad guys.

Who is to blame for the total collapse of world governments?

Undisputably Obama, of course.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:03 | 1086927 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another excuse for cult retail stocks like NFLX to go up even faster.

And I'm watching BBVA for a reaction, so far it is down a paltry 2 cents.

LOL.....

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:06 | 1086934 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

I bot BBVA yasterday. Looks higher

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:06 | 1086932 Chicken_Little
Chicken_Little's picture

I spent last evening with a Portugese couple now based in Canada. His business is international food distribution but their family is in Portugal. I wish I could've videoed the 3 hours of what they both said about their home country and food prices. People like them are not on Zerohedge, but they're in our camp. He thinks the corporations are taking over the farms and driving prices up. I said the prices are going up because of the massive money printing. I also said his home country should default on the debt and start out with a new gold based currency and tell the World Bank and the IMF to jump in the lake. My personal opinion is all of us will be forced into a gold/silver standard in 2012.

 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 16:03 | 1087166 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

only those who have not voluntarily entered the gold & silver standard, already.  but why forced?  those who wish to spend $1 bil for a loaf of bread from their $100 bil in monthly food stamps should be free to do so, and if someone has $50 tril for a radioactive honda, what tf do i care?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:05 | 1086933 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Oh Lordy, the second part of the scam is back being pushed on people now...people in this country are so fuckin stupid.......

 

Adjustable rate mortgages are back!

After accounting for nearly 70% of all mortgages issued during the boom, ARMs vanished during the bust, totaling just 3% of the market in 2009. Now they make up 5% of all mortgages issued, and Freddie Mac predicts 10% by December.

Behind the comeback is a simple fact: ARMs are a great bargain right now. The most common ARM loan currently has a rate of 3.5% compared to 5% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

"For anyone with a high likelihood of moving soon, the 5/1 is a great product," said Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association. "It's a well understood product too; there's not a lot of danger with it."

So why isn't everyone grabbing an ARM?

Well, because fixed-rate mortgages are seen as safer because they carry the same rate over life of the loan. Borrowers always know what their payment will be.

But with ARMs, interest rates change over time. For example, the 5/1 ARM -- the most common loan -- has the 3.5% introductory rate for the first five years. After that, the rate adjusts annually.

That sounds kind of dangerous, but look deeper. On a $200,000 mortgage, the monthly ARM payment at 3.5% would be $898 compared with $1,074 for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan at 5%.

That's a $10,560 difference after five years, when the ARM would adjust. At that point the ARM rate could jump to a worst-case scenario 8.5% and the monthly payment to $1,538.

It would still take more than 22 months of the higher ARM payments to offset the first five years of savings.

"Even under a worst case scenario, you're better off with an ARM if you're planning to live in the house for less than seven or eight years," said Steve Habetz, a loan officer with Darien Rowayton Bank in Connecticut.

And, the reset will, most likely, be lower than to 8.5%. The amount the rate can increase is typically calculated by adding a margin of 2.75 points to an index, usually the rate of a one-year T-bill, explained mortgage broker Alan Rosenbaum, founder of GuardHill Financial. And most loans have a maximum amount they can rise per year and a cap on how high the rate can go.

Still, many homebuyers want no part of ARMs.

"I had a client recently who told me that they were going to move in four or five years," said Habetz. "I suggested an ARM. They insisted on a fixed rate. It made no sense but that's what they wanted."

Many buyers remember the so-called toxic or exploding ARMs and how their defaults triggered the mortgage meltdown, helped sink the housing market and usher in the Great Recession.

These loans failed for a couple of reasons. Many were issued to people who lacked the income to pay once the initial years of low fixed rates ended and the interest rate reset higher. Too, the caliber of borrowers was very low.

The 5/1 is an entirely different animal, experts says. Unlike the toxic ARMs, these products are issued to borrowers with high credit scores, making substantial down payments and with assets, debt and income carefully underwritten before approval.

Rosenbaum said he's always featured the 5/1 ARM as the product of choice unless the clients tell him they're planning to live in the home for 15 or 20 years.

For people planning to stay for less time, "It's paying for insurance they don't need," he said

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:06 | 1088128 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Adjustable rate mortgages are back!"
I'm assuming that this is not Off Topic at all.  Are you suggesting that Portugal look into obtaining this type of financing to tide it over the next few weeks?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:06 | 1086941 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Oh, by the way, I just pulled up a chart of JPM.

By far, the strongest bank stock among the majors.

And, yes, the JP Morgue has WAY outperformed the likes of NEM, AEM, KGC this year....

One of my IRA accounts is still sagging under the weight of these gold stocks.  I should have sold all of them last year and piled into money center banks instead.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:42 | 1087066 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

You should.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:12 | 1086955 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

I thought Obama was the messiah.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:13 | 1086958 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

So what's the big deal here?  We now all know that disasters are officially good for the market.  It may not be a tsunami but the collapse of sovreign government (or 5) should equate to at least +220 on the DOW.  Amiright?!

 

If some people die in the process we could hit +250!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:12 | 1086963 redpill
redpill's picture

Fear not, Fed Officials See US recovery "taking hold"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-officials-see-US-recovery-rb-3203589472.html

 

 

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