JPMorgan: "The Likelihood That The Portuguese Government Will Fall This Week Looks High"

Tyler Durden's picture

There has been a lot of speculation about just what the JPMorgan note that claims the Portuguese government can fall as soon as tomorrow, says. The speculation can now end. "The likelihood that the Portuguese government will fall this week looks high. This suggests that the sovereign will likely access the EFSF in the near term, despite the current government's efforts to avoid this outcome." Incidentally if JPM is right, the market better have priced in the next insolvent domino to drop in Europe, although judging by where the EURUSD is these days, the market decided to take a long hard sabbatical about 2 weeks ago.

From JPM:

Portuguese government could fall tomorrow: EFSF access increasingly likely

Faced with increasing market pressure, the Portuguese government a couple of weeks ago announced a new set of fiscal measures aimed at achieving its ambitious plan to push the deficit to 2% of GDP by 2013. The new plan included additional tightening measures worth 0.8%-pts of GDP for 2011, and detailed spending cuts and revenue-boosting measures worth a total of 2.5%-pts of GDP for 2012 and 1.2%-pts of GDP in 2013. The plan was spelled out more clearly yesterday, when the finance ministry published its latest update of the Stability and Growth Program (see table below). According to the program, the government will achieve a rapid deficit reduction thanks to front-loaded tightening, which will push down the primary balance by 3.4%-pts of GDP this year and 2.4%-pts next year. Partly in response to the new measures, the government lowered its growth projections, and now sees GDP contracting 0.9% this year and growing at a modest rate over the following two years.
 
The announcement of the new measures received the blessing of the EC, the ECB and the European Council, but was not welcomed by the main opposition party in Portugal, the centre-right Social Democrats, which have blamed the government for acting without informing them in time. This poses a clear challenge as the current Socialist government led by prime minister José Sócrates is a minority government.
 
It looks like the Portuguese parliament will vote on the new fiscal plan tomorrow. Prime minister Sócrates has already announced that, if the plan is rejected, he will resign, something that will lead to a general election. The prime minister has been attempting to find a compromise with the opposition, saying that the current plan could be discussed and amended as needed, but the opposition does not seem to buy into this. The head of the Social Democrats Passos Coelho, who enjoys a lead in opinion polls, has been critical of the measures, despite mentioning that he fully supports Portugal's deficit-reduction targets. This seems to suggest that his party would likely implement an equally austere plan, but in a new government structure.
 
The likelihood that the Portuguese government will fall this week looks high. This suggests that the sovereign will likely access the EFSF in the near term, despite the current government's efforts to avoid this outcome.

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ReallySparky's picture

Failure is everywhere, Fed Fisher states today that US faces insolvency,blah, blah, blah, but there is hope.  Captain Obvious. It won't be long before this all blows up.

nevadan's picture

There's nothing to worry about.  JCT will be along shortly to announce that he will probably raise interest rates when it seems appropriate.  It's all good.  Euro up.

egdeh orez's picture

What does this do for precious metals? Is it bearish for PM then since dollar is going up?

Harlequin001's picture

Buy and hold. Can't go wrong with that one.

Alternatively you could put your cash in a Portuguese bank...

Thomas's picture

I had even odds that Spain would go down a year ago. What's with those guys? That's when the Roman candles will come out.

HoofHearted's picture

Portugal goes down, then it's Spain, Ireland, Greece, and Italy. After all, misery loves company.

dick cheneys ghost's picture

Census Detroit........Population lowest since 1910....Government souce leaked to newspaper.......i knew things were bad, but not that bad..

 

http://nakedempire2.blogspot.com/

Zero Govt's picture

Detroit down the toilet? ...proof what a 'success' the Democrats (socialism) is for your community

Calmyourself's picture

Nothing material will go down and certainly not the entire system. Every big bank and concern in the world is dependant on this system as well as the sheep.   This will go on for a long, long time as they strip us bare.  The middle class will be totally asset stripped and only when that is done does this end.  The end will be nothing more than a slave state dressed up through mass media as the new fairness..  Nothing changes..

Shocker's picture

I'm Really surprised we have not joined them to be honest. We are in extremely rough shape but I guess people are too busy eating, and watching tv to notice.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

 

 

Clancy's picture

The Sinking of Lusitania, Part II

CD's picture

I dunno abou the short term effect on the USDX, but THIS certainly does not look like good news for any PMs:

"On March 15, 2011, the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) advised the CFTC that they had approved J.P. Morgan's application to become a licensed vault facility, using a "self-certification" process. The newly licensed vault, located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, NY, NY, is ready to roll as both “weighmaster” and depository, for delivery of gold, silver, platinum and palladium contracts, as of March 17, 2011, two days later."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jp-morgan-now-make-and-take-delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts?source=feed

Dr. Richard Head's picture

The dayI store my goods with JP Morgan Chase is the day that I get surgery to become a woman. 

Dr. No's picture

That would be the only escape plan.  Once you get in with bed with JPM, they got you by the balls....

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Does this skirt make my adam's apple look big?  Fuck JP Morgan. 

Calculated_Risk's picture

"using a "self-certification" process"

 

Translation: 'Trust us, we have your gold right here... no need to worry. But don't try and withdraw it.'

SilverBoy's picture

Third party certificates cost more because, well a third party actual verify the accuracy of the information.

Self certification - How Lame

FeralSerf's picture

I wonder if they'll take gold colored tungsten bars too.

eftian's picture

No, thats what they`ll deliver!

Temporalist's picture

Whoops didn't see that..

IQ 145's picture

 "self-certification"=a fox who certifies himself to be a hen-house guardian. This sucks; and it's pretty blatant.

T-NUTZ's picture

kind of like being "the banker" in Monopoly?

Temporalist's picture

Something interesting about JPM and PMs.  I'd say the big players are getting ready for something in metals...bullish for PMs:

Will JP Morgan Now Make and Take 'Delivery' of Its Own Silver Shorts?

"The process of being approved as a licensed vault or weigh-master/assayer for the NYMEX/COMEX futures exchange...

...will ordinarily consume considerably more than 45 days.


On March 15, 2011, the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) advised the CFTC that they had approved J.P. Morgan's application to become a licensed vault facility, using a "self-certification" process. The newly licensed vault, located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, NY, NY, is ready to roll as both “weighmaster” and depository, for delivery of gold, silver, platinum and palladium contracts, as of March 17, 2011, two days later."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jp-morgan-now-make-and-take-...

IQ 145's picture

 Whoops. that one went right by me. "self-certification"; WTF? I don't like this.

Harlequin001's picture

The failure of Portugal is inevitable, just like all the rest.

The problem is solvency, ain't no one raising rates anytime soon...

A Man without Qualities's picture

I suspect there is a big problem with the planned asset sales.  I suspect when they look at the accounts of these state owned entities and realize what they look like under international accounting standards for corporate entities, they realize the market will be horrified, so they are orchestrating an escape route, leaving another group can come it and take responsibility for the mess.

Portugal has been living the life since they joined the Euro, basically enjoying living standards far higher than their economy could support, and now it's coming apart at the seams.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"I suspect there is a big problem with the planned asset sales."

See, if they had a more proactive Federal Reserve Bank like we do, there wouldn't be a problem at all.  Ours will buy anything.

pendragon's picture

yes only counted 6 times so far in the last week. the broken record

ml8ml8's picture

The Euro has been rising on the back of a US$ carry-trade.  We all know that trade works....until it doesn't.  Witness the Yen.  Who knows, maybe we'll have the G-7 intervening to stabilize the Euro sometime later this Spring.  /sarc

redpill's picture

The level of insolvencies is not of a level where it would impact human health, please move along.

/Tepco

PulauHantu29's picture

Really Sparky, it's always,

"Better then Expected!"

downwiththebanks's picture

Hopefully Portugal responds by saying the liklihood that JP Morgan remains in a state of insolvency papered over by mark-to-horseshit accounting gimmicks and public sector welfare is 100%.

bbaez's picture

Ending Corparate Welfare & Corporate Tax Loopholes could end American budget woes couldn't it?

downwiththebanks's picture

Taxing the shit out of world-destroying derivatives would allow caviar binges for to every man, woman and child alive.

mogul rider's picture

Beside Spain , which is collapsing

Which is beside France which is collapsing

Which is beside Germany which is collapsing

Which is beside Eastern Europe which has collapsed

Which is above Italy which is collapsing

Which is above north Africa which is right fucked up

which is beside North America which is completely fucked up

Which is beside Japan which is melting

Which is beside China which is dissolving

 

#winning

KickIce's picture

Yeah, but aside from that everything is fine, right?

Harlequin001's picture

Absolutely marvellous, looking good for a rally...

redpill's picture

Positively bullshit, er I mean, bullish!  BTFD on max margin, pour Krystal over your naked girlfriends in the hottub and celebrate silver coiners getting thrown in prison as our country gets sold down the river.  Party like it's 1929!

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Are we having a volume-less melt-up in metals today? Or is that only strictly for equities?

tgatliff's picture

Absolutely!!! And the dumpster diving technical charting (its very complex and hard to understand  so it must be right)... Clearly indicates that the market is about to pop higher in the short, medium, and basically to infinity and beyond.... BUY BUY BUY!!  BOOYA!!

knukles's picture

Depends on where you live.

John_Coltrane's picture

Yes, antartica looks to be in good shape-but other continents are screwed.  Can millions of penguins really be wrong?