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JPMorgan: "The Likelihood That The Portuguese Government Will Fall This Week Looks High"
There has been a lot of speculation about just what the JPMorgan note that claims the Portuguese government can fall as soon as tomorrow, says. The speculation can now end. "The likelihood that the Portuguese government will fall this week looks high. This suggests that the sovereign will likely access the EFSF in the near term, despite the current government's efforts to avoid this outcome." Incidentally if JPM is right, the market better have priced in the next insolvent domino to drop in Europe, although judging by where the EURUSD is these days, the market decided to take a long hard sabbatical about 2 weeks ago.
From JPM:
Portuguese government could fall tomorrow: EFSF access increasingly likely
Faced with increasing market pressure, the Portuguese government a couple of weeks ago announced a new set of fiscal measures aimed at achieving its ambitious plan to push the deficit to 2% of GDP by 2013. The new plan included additional tightening measures worth 0.8%-pts of GDP for 2011, and detailed spending cuts and revenue-boosting measures worth a total of 2.5%-pts of GDP for 2012 and 1.2%-pts of GDP in 2013. The plan was spelled out more clearly yesterday, when the finance ministry published its latest update of the Stability and Growth Program (see table below). According to the program, the government will achieve a rapid deficit reduction thanks to front-loaded tightening, which will push down the primary balance by 3.4%-pts of GDP this year and 2.4%-pts next year. Partly in response to the new measures, the government lowered its growth projections, and now sees GDP contracting 0.9% this year and growing at a modest rate over the following two years.
The announcement of the new measures received the blessing of the EC, the ECB and the European Council, but was not welcomed by the main opposition party in Portugal, the centre-right Social Democrats, which have blamed the government for acting without informing them in time. This poses a clear challenge as the current Socialist government led by prime minister José Sócrates is a minority government.
It looks like the Portuguese parliament will vote on the new fiscal plan tomorrow. Prime minister Sócrates has already announced that, if the plan is rejected, he will resign, something that will lead to a general election. The prime minister has been attempting to find a compromise with the opposition, saying that the current plan could be discussed and amended as needed, but the opposition does not seem to buy into this. The head of the Social Democrats Passos Coelho, who enjoys a lead in opinion polls, has been critical of the measures, despite mentioning that he fully supports Portugal's deficit-reduction targets. This seems to suggest that his party would likely implement an equally austere plan, but in a new government structure.
The likelihood that the Portuguese government will fall this week looks high. This suggests that the sovereign will likely access the EFSF in the near term, despite the current government's efforts to avoid this outcome.
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Crap. Now I have to refer to those poor bastards as "IIGS".
Ireland and Greece are done too, really at this point it's just IS. And you know how that saying goes, it depends on what your definition of IS, is.
+1 Gurkha Grand Reserve Cigar with Vagina Wrap
The PIIGS become GIIS - great black GIIS. Almost an omen.
So how much gold does Portugal have anyways?
382.5 tonnes
Some say the BIS have it all as security against 40 billion pieces of paper...
Great article written on Seeking Alpha today about how JP Morgan got approval for a vault license by the CFTC. Now they can manipulate silver some more by hiding the fact that delivery failures occur because it is being delivered to their own damn vault.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jp-morgan-now-make-and-take-...
$36.66 silver later this week - number of the beast
Buy physical silver, crash JP
I smell weakness! Now is the time to invade. Rape the fields and pillage the women!!
Summary of Rick Rules comments on Japan and uranium
http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=306
WOW...!!! The story that was refered to by CD at 14:52 is toooo fucking much. Thanks for the link.! Avery Goodman reports at Seeking Alpha website about a story titled "Will J P Morgan now make and take "Delivery" of it's own silver shorts."
This is a MUST READ.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, today, 3/22 is Blythe's birthday so I suppose the Wicked Witch got what she wanted as a grand present from the CFTC.
Well, I have a special birthday song for this evil bitch and it is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VjbuM4i--A&playnext=1&list=PL2AB7BBFB5A2C034C
Unhappy Birthday - The Smiths
"I've come to wish you an unhappy Birthday,
'cause you're evil, and you lie,
and if you should die,
I may feel slightly sad, but I won't cry....
.....may the lines sag heavy and deep tonight!
....so drink, drink, drink and be ill tonight!"
ps.... CD posted a link with his comment,in case you missed it. I am not too computer savy or I would have put a link too.
BUT link is first few (not too many) comments
Comment by CD
J P Morgan Chase,gets it's own Precious Metals Vault license.
Can now "POTENTIALLY" deliver short obligations to ITSELF...!!!
Read it at SeekingAlpha.
UNFUCKING BELIEVABLE.!!!!!!!!! but true.
Google it on up,or use link posted by CD
Chill Dude. The simple fact is that JP attaining a license [with such haste] to have a vault just means that the rising price of PMs, especially Silver, is creating pressure, especially on the Dollar.
This is merely another brief chapter in the book Extend-n-Pretend-onomics. But like War and Peace, there is always an ending.
Just remember, it's countries like China which dictate how fast the pages will be turned.
China could always keep the WMD Paper Shorts there, tick-tock-tick-tock.
Failure is everywhere; I like it; the moto of the "new normal". I hope so, I need an excuse for the big players to start making money on the short side of the EUR/USD trade; It's kind of lonely out here.
..but...but...but...Cheney said, "Deficits don't matter..."
Donkey Kong
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvlvejSxBVQ
just another domino falling, whats next?
one of the reasons that volume is leaving and going to other markets. System here is so obviously rigged. They don't even try to hide it anymore.
Comex is losing PM biz like there is a hole in their bucket.
one of the reasons that volume is leaving and going to other markets. System here is so obviously rigged. They don't even try to hide it anymore.
Comex is losing PM biz like there is a hole in their bucket.
In other news,
"CARACAS (Reuters) - Capitalism may be to blame for the lack of life on the planet Mars, Venezuela's socialist President Hugo Chavez said on Tuesday."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/us-venezuela-chavez-mars-idUST...
He was one of the last few to get off Mars alive. Looks like he had his head out the window the whole way back and may have been whacked in the face with a couple of asteroid chunks.
That could explian a lot....
Come on people. Can you see what JP Morgan's trying to do? By knocking down EURO that means USD will go up. Which means Gold/Silver going down! Damn evil.
"Come on people. Can you see what JP Morgan's trying to do? By knocking down EURO that means USD will go up. Which means Gold/Silver going down!"
Interpretation:
This Precious Metals buying opportunity has been brought to you today by JP Morgan Chase - the bank that cares.
Quote from their website:
"We're trying to help take this nation forward in any way we can"
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase.
http://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/Home/home.htm
Now, remove the word "forward" and read it again. Kinda' sends chills down your spine, doesn't it?
Portugal and then Spain, thats how it will go.
The government will fall, simply because the prime minister does not want to stay in government as the ship is clearly sinking. Portugal has been living on a day to day basis and it is remarkable that there has been so little failure in civil service and welfare payments.
This "crisis" was all an elaborate plot to try and escape while putting responsibility on the main opposition party for the inevitable bailout.
The socialists did in the last 15 years what they do best, expand government until no trace of private entrepreneurship can survive without some very strong connections in the socialist party. The country is bankrupt. 65% of the population is living off the government in one form or another, corruption is endemic, income taxes are about 300% what they are here in Ireland and indirect taxation probably something similar. You pay for everything in Portugal several times and there are charges for every single thing.
Regarding the budget, the Socialists essentially came up with a new austerity package in which they have compiled all the measures that had previously been rejected by the main opposition party, the social democrats, during the negotiations for the previous austerity budgets. They then took this emergency budget to Brussels, without bothering to inform the Portuguese or the opposition (which they need to approve it since they are a minority government), clearly to hand over the responsibility for the upcoming crisis to someone else. They knew the opposition would fall for the trap, and even if they did they woudl have to swallow their pride and approve all the measures they so vocally rejected in the past.
The Socialists always win. They either leave claiming they did everything in their hand to avoid a bailout and that they can't do their job as the opposition does not allow them to, or they have the budget approved at the expense of the main opposition party credibility.
Now the speech is typical socialist victimization and the government has said they will resign tomorrow if this budget is not passed, and all the opposition said they will vote against it.
The new government, whoever it may be, will no doubt declare that the socialist effectively rigged all the books and the country situation is much worse than declared by the socialists and that external help is needed, and for the third time the FMI will be in Portugal, for the start of another cycle where Portugal will continue it's descent into the poorest country of Europe.
Like Julius Caesar said: "The people that live in the west of Iberia can neither govern themselves or allow anyone else to govern them". 3000 years later, it still holds.
...the government will fall.
JPMorgue, drama queen much? It's only a government. One collection of rubber stamps will be replaced with another.
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