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JPY EUR Twang - Is The Dollar Set To Break Resistance?
The traditional stock leading indicator over the past several months, the JPY-EUR rate just snapped and dropped below what technicians would call another support level. If the market follows this lower, look for the DXY to surge.
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Quick, quick. Whack gold, the 10yr auction is coming up...
Well Tits on cnbc just predicted that gold will break $1,000 in the next few weeks. They rollin' out the big ones.
I heard that too. They have become better than the comedy channel.
Their little etf scam is going to blow up in thier face by end of next week.
Who is "Tits"? Mark Haynes?
Haynes would be "Moobs."
haaaaaaaaaaa! awesome
Patrick Heller says back above $1,200 by the end of this week.
http://numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=8850
Let's see who is right...
But I guess that, technically, with current volatility, they could both (or all three?) be right!
The carry unwind already? Seems to soon. As I'll have plenty of wise things to say looking back on this one.
My thoughts exactly...just too soon methinks. Lotsa head fakes...I don't think we'll "see" the actual one coming. This is too obvious (even to the little guy).
I am definitely with you guys. The Fed's MBS-purchase program doesn't even start waning until the beginning of March. That leaves easy money leaking like a sieve into the financial system until then- at least.
I think the Fed is serious about halting the program, though, so the smart money is going to begin to batten down the hatches just before that time. I am still looking for the worm to turn around Valentine's Day (February 14th...).
Just for giggles, I may modify my 4X robot to take a gigantic chance to the upside and cash out with a 999-pip move. If it hits, I don't have to scrub floors for a living any more!
:D
he who panics first, wins....
you know there are some very leveraged folks on this trade...when they ge the collateral calls, this will break quick...because everyone knows it is coming, but thinks its not for a while...
If anyone cares to see the breakdown in the EUR/USD please see this or click on my link in the blogroll.
http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/eurusd-breakdown-in-pictures...
Why the yen appreciation despite the recent measures by BOJ?Are the European conducting a covert qe?And as far as the carry trade I thought it was the dolar that fueled it,so ddollar up makes sense,but not JPY. Or is it a breakdown of all corelation and it is realy the hal 2000 programs that ahave lost directions?
I was talking the dollar carry, not the yen carry.
I have thought long and hard about that question over the past couple of days. The only concrete thing I can come up with is that the "stimulus" package in Japan is going to be paid for with the populace buying government-issued bonds, whereas in the United States, no one knows where the hell this money is going to come from.
Since both the yen and the USD can be used for carry as well as for safe-haven holdings, investors feel more inclined to hold their money in yen. They know how the money is going to get paid back (at least, that's what they believe...).
The problem with the yen appreciating now is that the Japanese economy is about to take another major turn down- as are all global economies. Japan will be hit relatively harder than other first-tier economies because exports are going to slow to a veritable trickle of even where they are now. Unemployment is going to sky-rocket throughout the country, as it will no longer be practical to hire someone just to hire someone. There will be no more bridges to nowhere, as the new Prime Minister has said.
Expect outrage amongst the young, unemployment to creep above ten percent and the Japanese yen to crash. Even the former Finance Minister has said he expects the USD/JPY pair to eventually trade at about 200.0000! Man, that's a move from 88. (I believe "ka-ching" was originally a Japanese word, if I am not mistaken...)
It makes sense, too, because there is a nice fat gap on the monthly chart just below 210.0000, about September of 1985.
Back to the Future, boys!
like your post but have to disagree in the near term. I think as U increases and savings decreases there will be an enormous repatriation of Yen to fund this and the retirement of an ageing society.... we may see 200 but I believe we will see 75 first
The YEN has done the .618 bounce off the leg down that started a few days ago. It looks like It may be making an important high. There may be some kind of "accident" just around the corner.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fxy&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96303992063
china is the elephant in the room, and China is buying gold and euro to diversify the dollar holding. But china already has the largest holding of dollar asset, and they will not let the dollar fall to the crack. to some point, they will realize that falling dollar hurts their book worse than falling euro , and US of A is still the largest economy for some time. they will stop buying euro. strong dollar is in china's interest. Our big Ben is trashing the dollar. ZH said this all along.
China is only 1/10th of the US+EU economy. Even they cannot stop the dollar from falling even in the medium term.
Are we seeing the beginning of complete lack of confidence between central bankers,through these huge short term currency fluctuations?. Do you guys watch how Coyoties approach a prey?they all are scared from each other. Me think that this is not related to carry trade. More like every central bank is lookiing over its shoulder,and repatriating its money back home before it evaporates in the next battle. I think it is lack of trust in the system,the beginning of what Jim Rogers calls currency crises(may be he dosn't want to state the obvious,confidence crises)
Is SLV better play now.
SLV tends to run past gold as gold tops (cheap ones chasing lower prices into the top - classic suckers top at the bubble). I would not touch either right now, but keep that powder dry.
Patience. Lots of commodities have broken multi-month trendlines here.
Several oil services look like head & shoulders to me.
Japan just 'revised' their GDP reading from 1.3% growth to 0.3% growth, worse than forecasted 0.6%. This annualizes to a 1.4% growth rate against the 4.5% reported earlier.
Oh look just in time for the close and paint the end of day again... dollar whacked back down again and stocks up... same old same old, lure the shorts in and kill them for the end of day push and stop hunt
Euro is down because Lisbon treaty just went into effect. I've heard this caused institutional borrowing to cost more. Gold two thous... eh, you fools were talking out your asses at the peak of the bubble!
cant see any peak here.
Marc Faber said that Gold would never trade below $1000 again, ever.
Many of the herd believed him. They also thought that India buying from the IMF was a bullish signal. Lol.
There is the beijing put that China has. Confirmed by the telegraph. If gold gets to 950 China will buy like mad, pushing it over 1000 once again.
Just a little fucking around with the gold and silver bugs to make them think fiat is a safe haven.. Lol..
The bear market rally shows signs of weakness.
We will make new equity lows according to my charts and my USD indicator has been giving BULLISH warnings for several months and I'm still expecting a dollar rally.
My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.
They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007*
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
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