July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board

Tyler Durden's picture

Capital One just released its charge off data: the improvement that some had seen in the June data has promptly been erased and metrics are trending negative again. The net annualized charge-off rate increased to 9.83% in July from 9/73% in June. The 30 days + delinquency rate also went up to 4.83% from 4.77%. However, the worst deterioration was in Auto Finance Metrics, the annualized charge off rate increasing by over a third percent to 4.26% from 3.89%, and the 30 Days + delinquency rate moved north of 9 to 9.22% from 8.89%.

The middle peak of the W in charge off-data seems to have been reached.

July data below:

Prior month data below:

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Steak's picture

HY taking it on the chin today...expectations for recovery rates coming back to earth much?

Cheeky Bastard's picture

can someone tell me why the fuck did gold tanked 1.6% ?

peoplesdemocraticsocialistrepublicofmaryland's picture

If you believe we are really in a recession/depression (and I do), you will see commodities drop with stocks. I have been shorting silver the last 3 weeks and it clearly has hit a top at $15.

Gold has a lot more followers so it probably won't drop as much as silver but silver, oil, etc. are all going down.

We are not in a recovery and therefore the pumped up stocks and commodities must go down. The fundamentals have not supported this rally. This rally has gone on way to long.

There is no inflation so I am Long TLT and short TBT (initiated these 1.5 weeks ago). When we get another rally I will be long TBT and short TLT.

Hope this helps.

 

 

 

 

Anonymous's picture

Why bother with the long TLT, you will gain more from shorting the TBT since you gain from the decay on the levered ETF as well as the directional move (assuming you are correct), but you don't get that added benefit from the TLT?

peoplesdemocraticsocialistrepublicofmaryland's picture

Agreed.

But I actually prefer the TLT. The chart looks great and it is not as "juiced" as TBT. I prefer TBT as a short term trade, so I am in and out regularly. It is a great vehicle! 

 

Anonymous's picture

Well said, and I believe it's about time US govt should pump the USD a little bit, someone in China was screaming at the 77-78 dollar index last week.

Anonymous's picture

oh we can try and explain such things in a technical manner i suppose. but is that really what is going on here? i think not. it is obvious that the hidden hand is at work here, no doubt about it. sudden unexplained drops, have been happening now for about two years. to understand it, all you have to do is read the stuff that is written on this website. heck if they can manipulate the stock market with high freq trading, how much more so can they manipulate the gold and silver markets. they will attempt to do whatever it takes to make sure, gold does not get much above 960 and continue to trade in a range, more or less. everytime silver gets a head of steam, it is knocked down easily too. people say, well, silver is industrial commodity. yes it is , but it used to be the coin of the realm until 1965. do you think for one minute that the bankers who run this whole show have not forgotten that one small aspect? i think not. if the sheep ever really understood what is going on, there would be such a stampeed toward real money, that the world would never be the same.

Anonymous's picture

Whatever goes up must come down. We are going to be in a tug-of-war period between inflation and deflation for a while. Looks like the deflationists are returning for the moment. Inflationists will take center stage again after them.

peoplesdemocraticsocialistrepublicofmaryland's picture

This is a wretched stock.

I started shorting this at $29 and continued through $35. Just couldn't believe it kept going up up up.

When this bubble pops this thing will be down with all the other absurdly priced financials (BAC, AXP, WFC, etc.).

 

Miles Kendig's picture

This couldn't happen to a shittier company.  I can only hope as we get into Q4 the numbers go north of 12% as the aggressive defaulters wake up from their slumbers.

Anonymous's picture

i agree. crapital one is about the worst. total scumbags. if you default on their credit card, they will sue you at the drop of a hat. i sincerely hope that most of their credit card holders default on the bastards and i will have a good laugh as their little castle made of sand, flows into the sea, eventually.....

Anonymous's picture

hey Cheeky,

gold moves inverse to the US dollar. The buck is rallying and should continue to rally for a few months, imo...Sometime in 5 or 6 years, when inflation takes off due to money printing, both the S&P and gold will touch 3000, probably on the same day.

Cheeky Bastard's picture

shit, thanks anon; didn't see the movement on the dollar, so i had a WTF moment. Thank you.

Anonymous's picture

Bob Rodriguez, a money manager with a great long-term track record, says he tells his people "Remember, it's all one trade." He is referring to the high correlation of returns across asset classes in the financial markets. Over the couple of years, there has essentially been one trade, either adding risk or reducing risk.

When the risk trade is on, stocks go up, commodities go up, European currencies go up. The dollar and the Japanese yen decline and U.S. government bonds decline as yields rise. When the risk trade reverses, everything goes in the opposite direction.

Look at oil as an example. There has been a worldwide glut of it since late last year, yet the price of oil went from the low 30's to over 70 in the first half of this year as stock markets advanced. There are no fundamentals to explain it.

zenith's picture
zenith (not verified) Aug 17, 2009 4:32 PM

Meanwhile FDIC will have to ask to tap its Treasury reserve this week, while Sweden, UK, Mexico, and Spain continue

His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed to be censored. Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will change. We just

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Anonymous's picture

Have a look at the gold/stock index ratios historical charts. Interesting stuff there.

zenith's picture
zenith (not verified) Aug 17, 2009 4:32 PM

yup

His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed to be censored. Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will change. We just

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

brown_hornet's picture

Hope the bubble pops before Fri. Hanging on to aug $29 puts. Stock down $1.07 early. Now only down .35

Anonymous's picture

Did anyone else just notice that the VIX exploded (up almost 14% in first 15 minutes of trading)? -- I just bought FAZ and TLT to hedge in case today gets really ugly.

Cheeky Bastard's picture

yep, up 16% ... good call on FAZ, and TLT .. if you like shorting; short Asia tonight; especially financial and industrial components of SSE and HSI .. if the Dow finishes -150 those sectors will be down app. 1000

Anonymous's picture

I cannot get over the strength of this POS stock. This stock should not trade over $15 and on this news should clearly be on its way back to $30 this week. But no, a move down and then a strong move up. Probably close up $.50 today. I cannot figure this one out for the life of me.

kensdad's picture

COF is green...  WTF?

are there that many shorts in this sucker?

Gilgamesh's picture

But the Hedge Funds bought last quarter...  Therefore it should go up every day, until...?

Cheeky Bastard's picture

there are far to many WTFs ( plural ) in this goddamn economy for it to remain stabile for much longer ... COF being just one example, and SPX and DJIA being the prime one.

deadhead's picture

just want to add to the WTF chorus on COF today....what a piece of shit this thing is....look forward to robotrader's comments on COF and CIT today....hey, if we are lucky, maybe GFG or CORS will spike today: the Treasury did say they passed the "stress" tests, lol!

Gilgamesh's picture

How long until C is green?

deadhead's picture

gettin' real close at a couple of minutes before noon EDT.... riverboaters probably yanking out of CIT to go play at the C carribean poker table.

Gilgamesh's picture

How many computer (I mean SLP) trades will take place at 4.01/4.02 today...  500mm?

perpetual-runner-up's picture

in my opinion, they are saving Cap One to be a sacrificial lamb at some point...no one likes the company and the comp plan has all the makings of an exec comp plan gone awry...

they will be tugged along until the gov/WS needs to sacrifice someone - my guess is after the CRE meltdown and consumers are looking for blood, they will pull the rug out here (even though it is primarily credit cards) and let them become the butt of jokes (and consumers efforts to feel like it couldnt happen to a nicer company)

Gilgamesh's picture

If COF blows up - that takes JPM, BAC, and C down with it to some degree.  Those are Chosen Ones; can't have that, just yet.

 

Love how they are buying up BAC and C again this A.M. as the market gets weaker...  Not long until C is green on all these shoots today.

perpetual-runner-up's picture

cof is the thorn preventing complete domination by the top 3....they are the only true cc player (despite having bought some banks to get capital)...

they must be taken out and absorbed by one of the others or served up as an offering to a foreign bank looking for access to the us market...

 

maybe this will be the cost to DB for the tarp money...they must take cof...

zenith's picture
zenith (not verified) Aug 17, 2009 4:32 PM

Wall St carrying suitcases haphazardly stuffed with U.S. currency (large denomination bills).

His message was being spread and gaining even more support...therefore he needed to be censored. Until we have guys like Black back as regulators nothing will change. We just

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions