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July Consumer Sentiment Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's bad economic data trifecta is complete, with the UMichigan consumer confidence number plummeting to 63.8 from 71.5, and well below consensus of 72.2. The number is far below the lowest Wall Street prediction of 68 (upper end of range was 75) and the worst since March 2009. The good thing for the Fed's QE3 plans is that high future inflation expectations are getting unanchored, with 1 year expectations down from 3.8% to 3.4%, and 5 Year down to 2.8% from 3.0%. A little lower and it will be just right.

h/t John Lohman


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Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:01 | 1459142 ads56
ads56's picture


Hope and Change! Yes We Can!

Thanks be to the Messiah that gas jumped 10 cents overnight here locally.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:08 | 1459176 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

It jumped .18 cents per gallon here overnight.

Don't tell Robotrader though.  It was just yesterday or the day before he was on a thread proclaiming the greatness of continuing downtrend in prices at the pump in LA.



Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:11 | 1459184 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Missed it by  >that<  much......again.

Are we sensing a trend yet?

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:14 | 1459197 takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

Yes, his allowance goes further if it doesn't cost so much to fill the tank on the moped...

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:31 | 1459548 monkeyshine
monkeyshine's picture

"Consumer Sentiment Lowest in Years, Markets Rally."

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:10 | 1459182 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

it wa all a typo and mass hearing deficits..

it was "Chains" not "change"...yes we can and here they be.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:34 | 1459261 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Of course gas prices went up.  Commodities and equities are joined at the hip right now.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:35 | 1459263 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Obama is an idiot and a terrible President in every way imaginable, but he's not responsible for the spike in oil prices.  That's predominently helicopter Ben and manipulation by numerous large entities like JPM.    

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:40 | 1459277 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Methinks wars in Libya don't help.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:45 | 1459288 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Libya's effect is far, far, far overstated.  There is not a shortage of oil in the market.  Their are tankers full of the stuff hanging around.  JPM is literally going to buy much of the IEA release to put in tankers to sell later. It's all a manipulated market.  CNBC and other MSM are full of it that the price has anything at all to do with fundamentals.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:52 | 1459694 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Cold comfort in January when I'll be paying $4.79/gal + for heating oil.  When do we launch a kinetic non-war military action against [INSERT SOUTHWEST ASIAN/AFRICAN OIL PRODUCER COUNTRY NAME HERE]???

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 13:12 | 1460061 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

The price of oil is not going up.  It's going up in fiat's going down in real currencies.

It's not a supply/demand problem of the commodity, it's a supply, supply, supply, supply, supply some more problem with money.  The only thing holding back financial armageddon is the manufactured incentive for the banks not to lend the money.  If the money velocity dyke breaks, run for cover.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:01 | 1459145 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Unusually unusual sentiment

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:06 | 1459156 augie
augie's picture

Transitory?...? curiouser and curiouser. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:05 | 1459159 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Yes, but that's normal.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 18:15 | 1461086 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Folks are getting sentimental over barbarous relics:  Au = $1594.10, Ag = $39.37

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:03 | 1459151 Boston
Boston's picture

On top of everything else, Spain and Italy are leaking wider....


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:08 | 1459175 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Spain under heavy pressure now. 10yr yield up 15 bps outright @ 6,05%. Maybe the story abt Castilla La Mancha is adding some fears abt the rest of the country. Here's the story:

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Spain’s Castilla-La Mancha first-
half budget deficit was close to 6 percent of its gross domestic
product, Expansion reported, citing unidentified people in the
regional government.
     The deficit amounts to almost 2 billion euros ($2.8
billion), Expansion said. The Spanish government set a maximum
deficit target of 1.3 percent GDP for the country’s regions for
this year, Expansion said.
     Castilla-La Mancha also has about 1.7 billion euros of
pending bills, compared with the 700 million euros that were
disclosed by the previous regional administration, Expansion
     No one was available to comment at the regional president’s
office when contacted by Bloomberg News.


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:04 | 1459153 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

Must be priced in, or transitory.  Perhaps a patch of something soft?


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:05 | 1459155 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

If this market wasn't being bought by the Fed proxies we would be down a thousand points this week.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:37 | 1459264 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Our (future) tax dollars at work

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:05 | 1459160 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

At the end of every post there's a link "printer-friendly version". Is that for chairsatan?

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:27 | 1459243 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

He sure likes 'printer friendly version'. Does he also like 'send to a friend'? Speaking for myself, I often would like to send ZH articles, but I do not, due to a lack of friends. Ben is most probably in the same situation...

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:38 | 1459270 cahadjis
cahadjis's picture

But .. but .. we said yesterday that *everybody* here is our friend :)

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:06 | 1459162 The Axe
The Axe's picture

wow..thats a MISS

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:06 | 1459163 The Axe
The Axe's picture

wow..thats a MISS

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:07 | 1459170 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

How sentimental.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:07 | 1459172 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:08 | 1459174 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Yank self reporting gets more accurate? Shocking that not all women are a size 4 and not all dudes are 8 inches.

Yet the gap between the market and the economy continues unabated.

Love looking away for 30 seconds and Nasdq goes up 10 pts.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:26 | 1459234 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Yet the gap between the market and the economy continues unabated

Indeed Lizzy. In case you missed it, this was a good story posted on Minyanville today:


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:10 | 1459181 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Green shoots" consumer sentiment  = "soft patch" consumer sentiment.  

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:10 | 1459183 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

when they want the markets lower, they give it an excuse to fall.  too bad all bulls are levered up the ass and are fighting their balls off to keep the markets levitating way up here.  if ben wants lower markets (so he can print more money), he will get them.


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:19 | 1459212 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The problem is with already skittish 401K bathrobes brigades seeing any meaningful severe market plunge and hitting the sell button to an empty market. I dont believe they can allow a market drop at all, it would make the 'flash crash' day look like nothing as algo bots get pummeled with sell orders and no buyers until WAY lower than Dow 11,000. If at any price.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:26 | 1459233 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

its possible.  debt ceiling vote fails, markets crash.  teleprompter in chief blames republicans.  ben gets the nod for money printing 3.0 because the masses see their 401k's decimated again.  right on script. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:32 | 1459257 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There are only 2 market modalities: Ponzi on, and Ponzi off. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:55 | 1459318 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

<<<   debt ceiling vote fails   >>>

There are not enough politicians with the guts to vote down a debt ceiling increase.  It will get passed in some form.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:31 | 1459256 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Our company's "retirement portfolio manager" just got off of the phone with a coworker of mine that is switching her 401K to government debt (flight to dollar "safety" dontcha know).  She was told that their phones are slammed with other 401K holders doing the same thing.  Out of the pan and into the fire of course, but I think the people smell blood in the water right now too. 

As for me, I am 100% physical PMs - not talking about earning my redwings with my wife either.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:54 | 1459713 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Indeed sheepdog-one.  Those Bots are like the animated brooms in Disney's Sorcerer's Apprentice. If they all get oriented to SELL, look out below. The equity market is extremely hazardous to trade, like walking across a frozen lake whose ice thickness is unknown, hoping it does not crack.

You really can't trade it short either with confidence, even commodities - lest the IEA do another 60mm (less than one day's worldwide consumption) release.

I'm just buying PM dips from time to time. I barely look at equities, the thing is broken.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 12:33 | 1459913 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, debating about how broken it all is really is a joke, I pay little attention anymore.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:11 | 1459185 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Here, you can clearly see why consumer discretionary stocks, many of them, at at ALL TIME HIGHS.


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:11 | 1459186 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

The day "consumers" are left clutching handfulls of worthless currency, unable to purchase any more plastic goods from Wal-Mart, the quicker this country can rebuild its character and direction.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:26 | 1459235 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:14 | 1459193 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

the chart shows a clear downwards trend and it is still time to short Consumer Sentiment, the fundamentials look good.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:15 | 1459198 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The fear today: Fat, financially reckless Americans might become skinny, frugal Americans

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:24 | 1459223 augie
augie's picture

oh the horror. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:34 | 1459260 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That will ruin their day..:

-"Get back up and Shop, you lazy Americans!"

-"But we already dropped!" 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:16 | 1459202 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

QE3 isn't going to be the panecea longs hope for - those bond wolves will come out of the trees at some point.  But, until then party on I guess.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:16 | 1459204 shushup
shushup's picture

Completely unnoticed by the machines. Programers fell asleep on that one.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:17 | 1459207 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Ahhh... that promised change. Yes we can feel it now ass wipe.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:19 | 1459210 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

How about some Jim Morrison and the Doors "This is the end"

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:39 | 1459273 Cortez
Cortez's picture

"of laughter and soft lies". 

We get baraged by soft lies in economics - soft patch, uncertainty, green shoots, snow, floods, Japan earthquake, recovery, job creators

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:20 | 1459215 shushup
shushup's picture

The only truths I have learned since 2009:

The stock market does not make sense. The stock market does not reflect economic reality.  A few companies that have programed computers to trade now run the stock market and decide market direction.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:26 | 1459236 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The real stock trading today is happening totally off market: in dark pools. 

In today's "Market", 75% of trading is program trading aka HFT bots trading millions of shares per nanosecond to one another. Only 10% of market volume is actual investors who hold stocks overnight (ie not daytraders). 

The construct you call "The Market" is merely a projection of how much the Fed (and you the taxpayer) are providing corporate welfare to Wall Street. If the Ponzi goes on, the index increases. The day the music stops or even decreases, there is only a dark hole left where once there was a market

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:22 | 1459219 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But no problem, we've got promises from the Maniacal Monetizers more vast printing with currency collapse and far higher prices are comin our way soon!

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:23 | 1459220 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

"A key index of consumer prices fell last month because of a steep drop in gas costs. But Americans paid more for autos and clothes last month."

Yeah, uhm, okay.  The index falls, but we pay more for basically everything other than gasoline.  Gas is cheaper though, so everything must be okay!

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:23 | 1459222 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is all coming together albeit slowly. No worries, buy LULU. NOT!

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:25 | 1459229 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Could be the end shortly for the euro. Stannard Says
Euro May Slide to $1.36 by 2011 Year End

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:25 | 1459230 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Don’t worry, our Kenyan economics professor will be on deck 11(ish) EST to shell out more threats and lies.


Enjoy the theater intermission.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:26 | 1459232 digalert
digalert's picture

"Sentiment Plunges" ?

This calls for a Barama/TOTUS pep rally speech.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:00 | 1459334 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Yup, a full-on double teleprompter, finger jabbin', head-bobbin' reminder that it's really W's fault and look at my council of economic advisors, aren't they the smartest guys in the room and if they are not there's Timmy T-man and FED Ben, they are the best, and maybe in 6 months I can blame it on the Repubs in Congress you just watch me.

powerpoint sidebar prompt-Keep the quiver out of my lower lip and my nose in the air.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:26 | 1459237 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

The destruction nears completion, OBAMA,NAFTA,GATT,NWO.  Nails in the coffin.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:27 | 1459241 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

U Mich sentiment plunges .....Translation: Main Street is in a Depression

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:29 | 1459250 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Lets all go to Mexico, Biggest ever? Video of giant marijuana plantation in Mexico. A cheech and chong paradise.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:30 | 1459252 Trying to Understand
Trying to Understand's picture

Not too much to worry about, POMO today...

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:31 | 1459254 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

The late 90's numbers on the left look like Mt. Everest by comparison... I wonder if there's snow on those peaks.... I do remember feeling confident circa 1998, not so much today... double-dip (officially-acknowledged) here we come.... nobody in the bottom 85%-95% of U.S. society gives an F about the "stock market" since we all lost our shirts twice, and we don't have any money to invest in it.  So, no jobs, high cost of living, flat wages = low consumer confidence = oncoming Leg 2 of The Long Depression.  Only differences today vs. 1930's?  Prices can't find their natural levels, and EBTs/Section 8/99-wk. checks keep the bread lines and Hoovervilles mostly hidden (for now).

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:14 | 1459418 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Yep, not long until the Obamao is on a constant loop on all MSM channels.

We will buy We will produce We are happy We take our pills.


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:40 | 1459276 cahadjis
cahadjis's picture

Quite a volatile measure, to be expected since it's a survey. But the clear pattern points to a falling knife coming right up (down).

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:40 | 1459278 whaletail
whaletail's picture

Back-to-school sales and the absence of bad weather will save the retail sector...

//oils bike chain with bike leaning up against car with empty tank, shaking his head...

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:04 | 1459360 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue." Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury

Sept. 1929

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:07 | 1459372 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:50 | 1459380 janus
janus's picture

BREAKING NEWS: re. QE3 and The Empire

after a five day mescaline bender, bernake broke down.  It's fair to say that bernake came down with a serious case of happens, and the consequences are invariably dire.

just watch the grotesque spectacle unfold for yourself...and if you're old (and cool) enough to remember The Pixies, you'll be treated to the best pixies cover ever.

Let me give you some context:

Janus is finishing up saving some damsel from distress, sentimentally setting up the smooch to seal it all...and then that swine-fucker bernake decides to start hatin on janus.



Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:29 | 1459532 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

This sounds VERY bullish for the US markets....

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:30 | 1459542 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


"...the worst since March 2009."

Not to pick nits Tyler, but August 2009 was lower at 63.2

In any case, it's now obvious the great recession is continuing.

"Please return to your seats, fasten your seatbelts and return your seat to an upright position..."


Fri, 07/15/2011 - 18:49 | 1461128 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Assume crash positions..."  -- :>D

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 11:37 | 1459588 dcb
dcb's picture

correct me if I a wrong, but that is a bullish indicator of you look at where it was last when that happened.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 12:35 | 1459926 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Look at that world-class 12 year UMCS downtrend channel; after a 3rd 1999 or 2007 type plunge the next lower low could be around 45, say around 1Q12?

This lagging metric should be renamed the 'WTI', the wishful-thinking-index, or the 'HSEI', the hope-springs-eternal-index.

I consider most if not all of our popular financial metrics to be credit-expansion based, and to either be inoperative or fatally lagging during the ongoing 90 year credit collapse.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 12:54 | 1460006 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

It is just transitory, bitchez!

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