July Consumer Sentiment Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's bad economic data trifecta is complete, with the UMichigan consumer confidence number plummeting to 63.8 from 71.5, and well below consensus of 72.2. The number is far below the lowest Wall Street prediction of 68 (upper end of range was 75) and the worst since March 2009. The good thing for the Fed's QE3 plans is that high future inflation expectations are getting unanchored, with 1 year expectations down from 3.8% to 3.4%, and 5 Year down to 2.8% from 3.0%. A little lower and it will be just right.

h/t John Lohman

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
ads56's picture


Hope and Change! Yes We Can!

Thanks be to the Messiah that gas jumped 10 cents overnight here locally.

Larry Darrell's picture

It jumped .18 cents per gallon here overnight.

Don't tell Robotrader though.  It was just yesterday or the day before he was on a thread proclaiming the greatness of continuing downtrend in prices at the pump in LA.



Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Missed it by  >that<  much......again.

Are we sensing a trend yet?

takinthehighway's picture

Yes, his allowance goes further if it doesn't cost so much to fill the tank on the moped...

monkeyshine's picture

"Consumer Sentiment Lowest in Years, Markets Rally."

ziggy59's picture

it wa all a typo and mass hearing deficits..

it was "Chains" not "change"...yes we can and here they be.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Of course gas prices went up.  Commodities and equities are joined at the hip right now.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Obama is an idiot and a terrible President in every way imaginable, but he's not responsible for the spike in oil prices.  That's predominently helicopter Ben and manipulation by numerous large entities like JPM.    

Tortfeasor's picture

Methinks wars in Libya don't help.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Libya's effect is far, far, far overstated.  There is not a shortage of oil in the market.  Their are tankers full of the stuff hanging around.  JPM is literally going to buy much of the IEA release to put in tankers to sell later. It's all a manipulated market.  CNBC and other MSM are full of it that the price has anything at all to do with fundamentals.

SoNH80's picture

Cold comfort in January when I'll be paying $4.79/gal + for heating oil.  When do we launch a kinetic non-war military action against [INSERT SOUTHWEST ASIAN/AFRICAN OIL PRODUCER COUNTRY NAME HERE]???

mayhem_korner's picture

The price of oil is not going up.  It's going up in fiat currencies...it's going down in real currencies.

It's not a supply/demand problem of the commodity, it's a supply, supply, supply, supply, supply some more problem with money.  The only thing holding back financial armageddon is the manufactured incentive for the banks not to lend the money.  If the money velocity dyke breaks, run for cover.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Unusually unusual sentiment

augie's picture

Transitory?...? curiouser and curiouser. 

StychoKiller's picture

Folks are getting sentimental over barbarous relics:  Au = $1594.10, Ag = $39.37

Boston's picture

On top of everything else, Spain and Italy are leaking wider....


Dick Darlington's picture

Spain under heavy pressure now. 10yr yield up 15 bps outright @ 6,05%. Maybe the story abt Castilla La Mancha is adding some fears abt the rest of the country. Here's the story:

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Spain’s Castilla-La Mancha first-
half budget deficit was close to 6 percent of its gross domestic
product, Expansion reported, citing unidentified people in the
regional government.
     The deficit amounts to almost 2 billion euros ($2.8
billion), Expansion said. The Spanish government set a maximum
deficit target of 1.3 percent GDP for the country’s regions for
this year, Expansion said.
     Castilla-La Mancha also has about 1.7 billion euros of
pending bills, compared with the 700 million euros that were
disclosed by the previous regional administration, Expansion
     No one was available to comment at the regional president’s
office when contacted by Bloomberg News.


Deepskyy's picture

Must be priced in, or transitory.  Perhaps a patch of something soft?


Everybodys All American's picture

If this market wasn't being bought by the Fed proxies we would be down a thousand points this week.

Dick Darlington's picture

At the end of every post there's a link "printer-friendly version". Is that for chairsatan?

wandstrasse's picture

He sure likes 'printer friendly version'. Does he also like 'send to a friend'? Speaking for myself, I often would like to send ZH articles, but I do not, due to a lack of friends. Ben is most probably in the same situation...

cahadjis's picture

But .. but .. we said yesterday that *everybody* here is our friend :)

The Axe's picture

wow..thats a MISS

The Axe's picture

wow..thats a MISS

lizzy36's picture

Yank self reporting gets more accurate? Shocking that not all women are a size 4 and not all dudes are 8 inches.

Yet the gap between the market and the economy continues unabated.

Love looking away for 30 seconds and Nasdq goes up 10 pts.

AccreditedEYE's picture

Yet the gap between the market and the economy continues unabated

Indeed Lizzy. In case you missed it, this was a good story posted on Minyanville today:



slaughterer's picture

"Green shoots" consumer sentiment  = "soft patch" consumer sentiment.  

101 years and counting's picture

when they want the markets lower, they give it an excuse to fall.  too bad all bulls are levered up the ass and are fighting their balls off to keep the markets levitating way up here.  if ben wants lower markets (so he can print more money), he will get them.


SheepDog-One's picture

The problem is with already skittish 401K bathrobes brigades seeing any meaningful severe market plunge and hitting the sell button to an empty market. I dont believe they can allow a market drop at all, it would make the 'flash crash' day look like nothing as algo bots get pummeled with sell orders and no buyers until WAY lower than Dow 11,000. If at any price.

101 years and counting's picture

its possible.  debt ceiling vote fails, markets crash.  teleprompter in chief blames republicans.  ben gets the nod for money printing 3.0 because the masses see their 401k's decimated again.  right on script. 

Caviar Emptor's picture

There are only 2 market modalities: Ponzi on, and Ponzi off. 

John Law Lives's picture

<<<   debt ceiling vote fails   >>>

There are not enough politicians with the guts to vote down a debt ceiling increase.  It will get passed in some form.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Our company's "retirement portfolio manager" just got off of the phone with a coworker of mine that is switching her 401K to government debt (flight to dollar "safety" dontcha know).  She was told that their phones are slammed with other 401K holders doing the same thing.  Out of the pan and into the fire of course, but I think the people smell blood in the water right now too. 

As for me, I am 100% physical PMs - not talking about earning my redwings with my wife either.

Saxxon's picture

Indeed sheepdog-one.  Those Bots are like the animated brooms in Disney's Sorcerer's Apprentice. If they all get oriented to SELL, look out below. The equity market is extremely hazardous to trade, like walking across a frozen lake whose ice thickness is unknown, hoping it does not crack.

You really can't trade it short either with confidence, even commodities - lest the IEA do another 60mm (less than one day's worldwide consumption) release.

I'm just buying PM dips from time to time. I barely look at equities, the thing is broken.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, debating about how broken it all is really is a joke, I pay little attention anymore.

Cdad's picture

Here, you can clearly see why consumer discretionary stocks, many of them, at at ALL TIME HIGHS.


White.Star.Line's picture

The day "consumers" are left clutching handfulls of worthless currency, unable to purchase any more plastic goods from Wal-Mart, the quicker this country can rebuild its character and direction.

wandstrasse's picture

the chart shows a clear downwards trend and it is still time to short Consumer Sentiment, the fundamentials look good.

Caviar Emptor's picture

The fear today: Fat, financially reckless Americans might become skinny, frugal Americans

Caviar Emptor's picture

That will ruin their day..:

-"Get back up and Shop, you lazy Americans!"

-"But we already dropped!" 

treemagnet's picture

QE3 isn't going to be the panecea longs hope for - those bond wolves will come out of the trees at some point.  But, until then party on I guess.

shushup's picture

Completely unnoticed by the machines. Programers fell asleep on that one.

Silverhog's picture

Ahhh... that promised change. Yes we can feel it now ass wipe.