Just Another Manic Monday?

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Via Pension Pulse.

Monday, I hooked up for lunch with someone who works at a successful
Montreal hedge fund. He complimented me on my blog and then we started
talking about alpha talent in Quebec.
There are some exceptional hedge fund managers in this province that
are being totally ignored by Quebec's large institutions (for God knows
what reason!).

I would like all the global funds that read my
blog to contact me (LKolivakis@gmail.com) and I'll be glad to share more
information on our alpha talent in Quebec. Many managers have worked in
London, New York, Chicago and decided to move back to Montreal for
personal reasons. I want to support them as much as possible because
Montreal's hedge fund community is small but offers tremendous
potential. I want Montreal to become the fastest growing hedge fund
center and will do everything I can to support our talented alpha

The person who I had lunch with today introduced me to
another person who is in the process of starting a relative value
commodity fund. I spoke with this manager late this afternoon and was
blown away by how sharp this guy is. Unlike most commodity fund managers
who mostly trade front end oil futures, this manager and his small team
have years of experience trading all commodities, including energy,
metals, corn, sugar, and other soft commodities.

We had a great
discussion on the financial crisis. Like me, he was extremely bearish
back in 2006. I told him I was researching all these complex CDO-squared
and CDO-cubed structures and was petrified. He told me he wanted to buy
out-of-the-money put options when the S&P reached 1400 but his
manager didn't like the idea. "People do not want to hear bad news".

I laughed because it's so true. Just like permabears on Zero Hedge
do not want to hear good news. My brother called me tonight to tell me
to tone it down on Zero Hedge. I told him that I try hard to ignore the
idiots who keep insulting me but once in a while I'll vent and tell them
to "F off". But my brother is right, once you're in the public eye, any
cyber idiot can insult you so it's best to strictly ignore these

Back to that commodity manager. He impressed me because
he uses liquidity flows, technical and fundamental analysis to take
positions in various commodities and understands the term structure of
the commodities he trades, linking it to his fundamental analysis. He
uses derivatives wisely and isn't looking to hit home runs every time.
One thing he told me is that a lot of "superstar" commodity managers are
one hit wonders (one fund was up 200% last year and lost 40% last
month). That's why I tell all institutional managers to focus on process over performance.

also talked about how crazy things got back in 2008. I told him to
ignore hot money investors like Swiss fund of funds and find patient
capital like large global pension funds. Interestingly, he explained to
me what happened in 2008. Redemption notices were coming in hard at fund
of funds and they first pulled money away from liquid strategies like
commodity trading advisors (CTAs), global macros and L/S Equity funds.
They also redeemed from illiquid strategies but those funds took longer
to liquidate their positions. I remember, it was one redemption after
another, forcing hedge funds to close the gates of hedge hell.

told me some of that is happening now. Big moves in commodity funds,
many of which are liquidating positions to shore up liquidity. He
shorted silver and made a bundle last week. Lots of managers, especially
CTAs, are getting whipsawed in these volatile markets. But he didn't
tell me he was bearish on commodities. Quite the opposite, he sees the
secular uptrend continuing but there will be plenty of volatility along
the way (which he will play using derivatives).

When the time is right, I will reveal this manager by updating my blog post on Quebec absolute return funds.
Just by talking to this guy, I know his fund will be very successful.
Again, I urge global pension funds investing in hedge funds to visit
beautiful Montreal. We need more patient capital willing to support our
talented alpha managers, some of which have years of experience working
at large financial centers and at the large Canadian pension funds on
internal alpha strategies.

It was another manic Monday. If you visit Zero Hedge and read the commentaries, you'll want to slice your wrists. SocGen is now forecasting a Chinese slowdown and warns commodities will sell off hard.
I say keep buying these dips because we're heading much, much higher
(many solar stocks are way oversold as the big hedgies keep manipulating
them to death!).

In another comment, Zero Hedge says bond king Bill Gross IS shorting Treasurys:

while we wish we had an updated TRF holding (the last one is as of
December 31, 2010), even using even stale data, we find that at the end of 2010 TRF had $608.3 billion in Net Futures held SHORT (link), and $588 billion in Eurodollar positions, which is precisely where his marginal synthetic rate bias/exposure is contained. Yes. This is a short equivalent position.

Bill Gross denied these allegations on CNBC, and says that Greece is the world’s biggest candidate for default (hmm, either those Norwegians are stupid for buying up Greek bonds or Bill is trying to pull a fast one on us again, snapping up Greek debt at default prices).

asked the smartest fixed income analyst in Montreal to make sense of
all this noise. Actually, this person is one of the smartest analysts I
ever met and had the pleasure of working with and he's a great guy to
boot. Here is what he wrote me:

"Debt tends to slow economic growth," Gross said in a live interview.



More accurately, slow growth leads to higher government debt.




below matched my previous comments: Zero Hedge really didn’t pick up
on the fact they are still long duration; they just have a spread


He blamed a
"blogger" who created a "misconception" that Pimco had shorted
Treasurys. The comment was an apparent reference to the zerohedge blog,
whose author posted on Twitter that Pimco holds a negative duration
weighted exposure to Treasurys.

said only that Pimco is "very underweight" on Treasurys and that the
firm is making money even though it has been on the wrong side of that
trade in recent weeks.

is doing just fine," he said. "We're outperforming 77 percent of the
bond market universe because we're holding other bonds that are doing
better than Treasurys."

Did you all get that? Pimco is still long duration but they have a spread position. He further explained this to me a couple of weeks ago:

still have a positive duration, I believe, so the net Treasury short
can be a viewed as a short Treasury-long spread product trade. But they
are certainly playing up to the Zero Hedge crowd….

fact that they have cash represents a curve position (or the residual
of a curve position), so “charging a management fee for holding cash”
is a bit unfair.

So I laugh when
Bill Gross and others warn of a looming US debt crisis. They got the
causation all wrong. Importantly, slow growth leads to higher government
debt, not the other way around.

Finally, the Globe and Mail reprinted a Reuters article stating that U.S. taps pension funds as it hits debt ceiling:

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Congress he would start
tapping into federal pension funds on Monday to free up borrowing
capacity as the nation hits the $14.294-trillion legal limit on its

The U.S. Treasury will issue
$72-billion in bonds and notes on Monday, pushing the nation right up
against its borrowing cap at some point during the day, according to a
Treasury official.

Geithner said he would suspend investments in two government
retirement funds, which will give the U.S. Treasury $147-billion in
additional borrowing capacity.



“I will be
unable to invest fully” in the civil service retirement and disability
fund and the government securities investment fund, he said in a
letter to congressional leaders.

Treasury has said the suspension of the investments and other measures
it could take would give the government until about Aug. 2 before it
will start defaulting on obligations, such as paying bond investors.

Congress is in charge of increasing the debt ceiling, but Republicans
are demanding deep cuts to federal spending for the price of their
support in raising it.

Geithner reiterated previous pleas for action. “I again urge Congress
to act to increase the statutory debt limit as soon as possible,” he


Previous administrations have also
tapped the retirement funds at times to avoid breaching the debt limit.
Over the past two decades, Treasury has suspended investments five
times, with the most recent suspension in 2006.

“Federal retirees and employees will be unaffected by these actions,”
Mr. Geithner said, since Treasury must make the funds whole once the
debt limit is raised.


But the measures still disrupt Treasury’s operations, as it must run two sets of books among other things.

What do I make of all this? Just more noise. Go back and listen to ABC's This Week's roundtable discussion on the economy.
Krugman is right, this is more fear mongering by Republicans who claim
spending is out of control, ignoring how fragile the recovery is. Again,
debt rose because economic growth slowed in the last couple of years.
Once the economy recovers, government revenues will recover and debt
will not be growing as fast.

This is all
noise, noise NOISE! I do not believe we are heading into the abyss or
that a looming US debt crisis is upon us. These pullbacks offer global
pension funds excellent opportunities to snap up shares in energy,
commodities, financials, and technology. You'll see, this is just
another manic Monday. And please don't forget to support me by kindly
donating any amount on the PayPal link under the pig at the top of my blog. Just because it's free doesn't mean you can't show your appreciation.

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GoatETF's picture

But my brother is right, once you're in the public eye, any cyber idiot can insult you so it's best to strictly ignore these cowards. 

Can you make up your mind? To ignore or not to ignore - that is the question.



Canucklehead's picture

There was a time, around 1910, when Montreal was the home to 70% of Canada's wealth.  Every significant business was headquartered in Montreal. Canada's stock market was in Montreal.  Toronto did not rate.  Nobody heard of Vancouver.

Then the Quebecers f**ked everything up.

Fast forward to today, the financial industry within Montreal has no significance.  With Quebec's law based upon France's Napoleonic law, combined with the zenophobic/token work environment, the smart money has left.  Why take the risk?

The remnants of Montreal's financial industry pine for the old days.  They sit in the old restaurants and talk about old times.  They recycle the old ideas and fight the old fights.

Leo lives in the middle of this.  He sees this as romantic and he sees himself fighting the good fight.  He is wrong but you cannot make him understand.  He is a lemming who is drawn to the wheel of father time.

He will be run over eventually.  Until then, he generates page views so he has some use.


Fiat2Zero's picture

Leo. Your song list is shite man. Watching your midlife crisis unfold, one bad pop song at a time is too much.

I was wondering why you brought out the haters.

Man up buddy. Man up.

Bruce Krasting's picture

Leo, You deserve the heat you are taking with this one.

You are quoting Krugman like he his some kind of god. Drivel.

I suppose that there is a segment of the population that would like to wake up and and read this happy news you are selling. But there are none of those folks at this site.

You want to be a cheerleader for Tim Geithner and P Krugman go ahead. But you ought to consider where you post this stuff. Put it here and you will get egg on your face everytime.

Your attitude shows up. You don't give a shit about anyone but yourself. All you care about is making a sleazy buck in Chinese solars. You don't give damn that your "gains" are are at the expense of many.  This kind of thinking is going to backfire on you. This is not about you and your stock portfolio Leo. It's much bigger than that.


IslandMan's picture

Isn't it possible, just possible, that HarryWanger and Leo Kolivakis are one and the same ?

akak's picture

You may just be right.

The consistent pattern of defending the corrupt sociopathic elite and their tottering, failing financial and monetary systems, the invariable focus on short-term profits over long-term consequences to society at large, the smug arrogance, the inability and unwillingness to engage in honest back-and-forth debate, choosing instead to post one-liner shitbomb comments and then running away like a coward rather than try to defend them --- yes, the pattern fits!

Leo = Harry

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Krugman isn't always right, but on this topic he is 100% correct. This silly debt ceiling is stupid. Why don't the rich just pay their fair share of taxes? Then we can debate the merits of a debt ceiling.

As for me and my stock portfolio, we are doing fine. I think you exaggerate the nature of the problem to suit your own narrow ideological views. Bruce, a while back you got heat for blaming the unemployed for not finding work. Tone down the rhetoric.

Bruce Krasting's picture

You sure sound like Krugman with that talk. Okay wise one, you tell me. What tax rate would you put on the top 5% of earners?

Answer: There is no rate that works Leo. Not even 100%. The answer is you have to shrink government. But you and Krugman love big government.

You tone down the rhetoric. If not, expect the heat you get.


Leo Kolivakis's picture

Bruce, get out of USA, come visit the world. Tax rates, including your sales taxes, are way too low. The top 1% control over 90% of your country's resources. Think about that the next time you cry me a river over your tax system. It's a joke.

akak's picture

When Canadia becomes the policeman of the world, engaging in senseless and mindbogglingly expensive military aggression around the world IN ADDITION TO being the cradle-to-grave socialist Nirvana that you so dearly love and defend, then maybe you can discredit yourself even further, leo (is it even possible?) by insanely defending the premise that statist Big Brother Government always and only faces a revenue problem and not a (over)spending problem.

God, you are a clueless fuck.  You simply HAVE to be pulling our legs with all this Keynesian, statist crap you spout here ---- nobody could be that stupid!  (Could they?)

Gene Parmesan's picture

Pure comedy. Thanks, Leo.

falak pema's picture

A man, his opinion, and the piranhas swimming around him like he were hungry bait...makes a fascinating sight in gamesmanship...I think some guys love getting the piranhas mad!

And still make their point.

chindit13's picture


On the spectrum of Everything’s Coming Up Roses to Mad Max was a Pollyanna, I fall somewhere in the middle. That being said, I cannot quite figure where you get the notion that a recovering economy will bolster Government revenues and help tighten the budget. Here’s what concerns me:

1) Corporate profits, which even you say have helped drive this 26 month rally, are already near record levels, yet the deficit continues to soar. How much better can they get? And if they do get even better, will GE begin to pay taxes?

2) Geithner has shortened the duration of Treasury debt. If the economy recovers, rates will rise. Maturing debt will be rolled over at a higher coupon rate, so there goes some more government revenue out as debt service.

3) Banks are heavily dependent on low rates now. How the heck are they all going to match book at the same time if rates rise? Their earnings, at least for the first few years of any “recovery”, will get hammered as they try to re-fund long term assets created during the ZIRP years. Given finance is now some 40% of American corporate profits, there goes more government revenue (as banks won’t be paying as much tax).

4) Unless there is a crisis of life-threatening proportions, Congress will never cut out the pork or the waste, and the deficits will continue to worsen. (That’s a value judgement, though based on a few hundred years of empirical data.)

Yes, if recovery comes jobs will be created and more people will pay taxes instead of consuming taxes, but is this enough to help the deficit in light of 1-4 above? It’s a guessing game, to be sure, but I can’t make it work. Thus, I think recovery might even worsen the deficit.



IslandMan's picture

Bingo ! Thanks for saving me the time to write !

Stormdancer's picture

Deleted.  Just wasn't worth it.

ebworthen's picture



By talking about  "Patient capital" and "Pension funds" in the same article you are making the hedgies on Wall Street salivate and get a hard-on at the same time.


catch edge ghost's picture

Way to hang in there, fella.

Like a pinata.

Dr o love's picture

"I am making tons of money because I am soooo smart and, by the way, if you could spare a few dimes so I could buy myself a cup of coffee, I would be forever grateful."


Too funny.

akak's picture

Isn't it all so over-the-top in its absurd denial of reality that it makes you suspect that "Leo" is just a parody, an act, a cruel joke being played on all of us here on ZH?

HamyWanger's picture

I can confirm that Leo is a hired comedian who gets paid every 15 days by Tyler & Marla (around 30% of the PPC advertising he manages to do).

Tyler plans to fire him any day now, because he doesn't attract enough controversy anymore, so I think I can reveal the "thing"

akak's picture

Thank you Hamy.

That is very decent of you to reveal, although I cannot say that I am surprised in the least.  There could simply not have been any other reason for Tyler and Marla to post such nonsense, or to have allowed such a demonstrable idiot, and shill for everything pro-Establishment and pro-status-quo, to submit articles (sic) to ZeroHedge.

Yen Cross's picture

 I have trades to make. Thanks for the Junk.

akak's picture

Dear Tyler,


Please, for the love of God, ax this statist bastard's ravings from ZeroHedge already!

ebworthen's picture

Leo provides perspective.

There are thousands of money manangers, and millions upon millions of retirees, who still believe that there are moral, ethical souls working away in Washington and Wall Street and other financial centers of the world conservatively stewarding and caring for their "nest eggs"  - and not realizing that the vultures, blue jays, and snakes are eating the yolk and whites as we speak.

Leo, I don't mean you or other good hearted souls who can and would do the right thing; I am talking about the legions of gutless vipers who take advantage of people like you.

JohnG's picture

But we'd miss all the fun!

Leo could be our useful idiot?

Yeah, hes an easy target....but if he worked on his comedy....

disabledvet's picture

i like my eggs over easy and my bacon parrallel.  and my coffee black like my girl in montreal.

disabledvet's picture

and let's not forget the bangles.  Prince had it all figured out then.  Thank you, Prince.

JohnG's picture

You'll be happy with your ration and glad to have it Private.

Now eat.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Leo <3 Krugman

Leo is to the world of (alleged) investment advising what Richard Simmons is to the world of VHS exercise regimens.

Leo says:

I'm going to dance my little tooshy off, sweatin' to the oldies, BTFD in Chinese Solars, until Cher loses her voice!

Richard Simmons - Sweatin to The Oldies


Rastadamus's picture

Damn Leo. You seem to attract all the haters. But I don't think they are haters anymore. After reading this, they are right.

akak's picture

Congratulations Leo Quislingasskiss!

You have once again batted a perfect 0.000 game.

Face it, you rabidly statist, utterly venal, completely immoral Keynesian clown: NOBODY is buying your laughably shallow, slavishly pro-Establishment propaganda here at all.  You are worthless, unwanted, unwelcome and increasingly despised here, and nothing but a laughingstock as a so-called financial "analyst".

Your disease (God's punishment for a rabid statist?) has obviously spread to your brain, clearly having done irreversible damage.

Please, Leo, just do the right thing for once, and throw in the towel here already. And when the financial and monetary systems finally implode in a paper supernova, I hope the collapse and destruction of your paper assets and your accounts will be as painful and agonizing as will be the collapse of the Big Brother welfare state which you so dearly love.

Eireann go Brach's picture

Leo, your ramblings are more fucking useless than tits on a nun! It belies belief that you are allowed to write on here.

Leo Kolivakis's picture

You guys make me laugh! If my writings are ''so useless'', why don't you all ignore me? Why do you constantly attack me? Why does aka post 20 comments of vile each time? I'll tell you why, because you need me. You can't handle the truth!

akak's picture

Better question:

Why does Tyler allow you to post your statist, Keynesian, pro-Establishment filthy propaganda here on ZeroHedge, when it always runs counter to EVERYTHING that ZeroHedge otherwise espouses, and for which it stands?

And no, it can not be for "a differing analysis", as you invariably offer no analysis.  Your arguments are consistently nothing but shallow regurgitations of pro-status-quo, mainstream financial media talking points, with no substantive or rational basis for your positions.  I would welcome a truly intelligent, differing perspective here on ZeroHedge, but you, leo, are not it.

As to why we come here to blast your lies and smug misinformation, well, of course that remains a mystery to you leo, as you would have to have a semblance of a sense of honor and justice, not to mention respect for the truth, to understand it.

JohnG's picture

I went to Catholic school, and nuns tits are not useless, let me assure you. :)

Clowns on Acid's picture

Your easy peasy style of writing belies the fact that you provide little or no facts nor historical precedent for your general "everything is going to be alright" views.

Plus why should anyone contribute to your blog....all you would do is spend it on a lunch with an imaginary friend. You are always at lunch...no wonder you provide so little research. 

Clowns on Acid's picture

Leo - now really...are you having all of us on?

"Krugman is right, this is more fear mongering by Republicans who claim spending is out of control, ignoring how fragile the recovery is. Again, debt rose because economic growth slowed in the last couple of years. Once the economy recovers, government revenues will recover and debt will not be growing as fast."

You make no reference to real growth (nominal growth - inflation). 

JohnG's picture

And right there is the rub.


experimentals's picture



You just gave yourself away. You're confirmation bias has caused you to post such a coward piece. You mention of buying the solar dip today at the close. There you have it, confirmation bias at it's finest. Of course your gonna post that crap. 

TruthInSunshine's picture

To recap Leo's learned treatise of the day:

So, I like, met this totally awesome fund manager, and he was like so kewl. OMG. 

I gnoshed on some sushi and picked his brain for some easy trade ideas, and like totally told him I'd give him a big shout out on Zero Hedge, too!

Afterwards, I went to get a haircut, pedicure and facial. It was soooo amazing to get a deep pore cleanse.

I've like totally been amped about going on the new colon cleanse aloe vera regiment.

I will let all of you know how it goes!

Until we talk again I'mjust gonna' keep dancing my derriere off as long as Britney Spears keeps ringing my bell!

I just hope there's a seat for this ass when the music stops! OMG! LMAO! :=)


JohnG's picture

If you've never been to a real spa before you should try it.



And Leo's on drugs tonight, or he's insane, or stupid, maybe all.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Leo sounds exactly like Jimmy Jam Cramer did when he was having his twitter nervous break down.



Zero Hedger says:     Damn, Leo, I typically will at least politely tell you that you're full of shit, but your latest drivel doesn't even deserve that courtesy.

Leo responds:     I am King Kong, and I bounce like the Hulk off tall buildings tonight. Your critique is like a pebble and I am bigger, faster, stronger, with a teflon suit! I am the anti-kryptonite that is Chinese Solars! BRING IT!!!

JohnG's picture

Yeah, but at least Cramer is a useful idiot..a clear fade for a good five years.

I seriously think he still frontruns his calls and cleans up.

-Edit- In which case make hime a creepy smart bastard, hmmm.




Leo?  Deranged would be kind.



High Plains Drifter's picture


we are all internet cowards and bullies,  because we argue with leo about his writings. i am not sure what brought that on. the last time i checked it was fight club around here, isn't it?

hack3434's picture

(many solar stocks are way oversold as the big hedgies keep manipulating them to death!


Give me a break Leo...You try to sound like a rational, fact driven individual yet you come out with this BS and claim that Hedge Funds are engaded in a crazy conspiracy to drive solars down?  

Leo Kolivakis's picture

I have traded solars for over 2 years. Yes, they regularly engage in naked short selling to drive prices lower, scooping up shares and then selling them at higher prices. Unless you have traded solars, you have no idea about the manipulation that goes on in this sector.

hack3434's picture

Care to share any evidence?