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The Kübler-Ross Model Of Terminal Keynesian Unwind, Or The Five Stages Of An Insolvent Greece
In a piece oddly reminiscent to what our friends at Minyanville put up over a year ago, JP Morgan has just released a short report looking at the "Five Stages of Greece", a reference to to Kübler-Ross model of Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance. Unfortunately Minyanville's piece didn't get enough billing because despite being spot on, and absolutely correct in every aspect, the world was literally a year behind the curve to appreciate it. The full article can be found here. In the meantime, here is JPM's summary of where Greece was and where it is heading, based on inferences from clinical psychology when dealing with terminal diseases.
JPM contends that all the recent bailout #2 has done, is to wind the clock back by three steps:
The latest deal for Greece, based on a French proposal, is another chapter in the “Bargaining” stage: it maintains the fiction that Greece’s debts will be repaid at Par, and does little to address the crumbling economic and social situation in Greece, rising deposit outflows out of Greek banks and the possible exhaustion of their eligible collateral to post at the ECB, and collapsing Greek imports and exports. The plan is mostly designed to continue transfers from the EU taxpayers and the IMF to French and German banks, and buy some time (perhaps a year or so).
As for what happens next, JPM's Michael Cembalest has one word: Mexico.
Here’s another timeline of where I think we are in Greece: at the latter stages of the “let’s keep lending more money and
rolling existing exposures and hope it gets better” phase of the Mexican sovereign debt crisis in the 1980’s. I expect the
latest deal to be the last one before the eventual (and inevitable) restructuring of Greek debt.
It is oddly comforting that an individual's steps in dealing with terminal illness and the world's approach in dealing with sovereign insolvency are identical. Alas, everyone knows how both finish in the end.
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Can we proform the chart for the U.S.? I'd like to get some tee-shirts printed...
i'll take some " Greece is not Mexico " tshirts :-)
Or ... "US is not Greece" tshirts. profits to pay down the debt. :-)
Am I the only one starting to suspect that as long as the underlying sentiment on ZH remains bearish, we won't see the major crash we are all expecting?
well I'll take a "Greece is not the US" T-shirt...
And I will take the "Socialism es Muerte" t-shirt. Make that two ;)
My shirt is going to say...At some point you have to cut your losses and re start the system Axel
Methinks its 'BTFDYFI" time again.
Don't think the US even realizes it has cancer.
The 5 Stages of Awakening
http://dont-tread-on.me/5-stages-of-the-awakening/
Maybe Greece should buy US stocks with their bailout money - They can't lose!
So wtf is going on with silver today?
07/01/10: usual holiday raid: slv high open $18.06 high $18.07 low $17.36 close $17.44
range down:3.79%
same as it ever was
it's just the usual summer softness in PM.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162812743]&disp=P
However, check out the performance of silver to other investment classes over the long term.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s238253528]&disp=P
portfolio allocation is so easy while the debt bubble matures....
How many stores does Starbucks have in Greece?
That country must be full of slackers drinking java all day.
$24 to $40 in 10 months, wow......
As least they're not in an alley sucking cock all day, Mr. Trader.
I am Chumbawamba.
you are cumbagblahblahblah dont you have something intelligent or controversial to say
You haven't been around long enough to know Chumba, obviously!
Way, way too rational.
The Greek situtation isn't about Greece at all: It's about the TBTF banks on both sides of the Atlantic (and their Asian buddies too). Who benefitted from the Greek bailout: the banks directly. Greece itself actually suffered
We're all Greeks now. Somebody wake me when it's time to pay Goldman a head tax.
T.E.I.N. everyone!
T.E.I.N.?
The End Is Near
There ya go, Silver down, Market up. Last zone of support
33.40 and then straight down to 32.
mosely-claven and all his bagholders losing the rest of their life's savings rotfl
seasonal factors for silver. moved sideways in 2010 from 07/01/10 to 08/25/10 in a $1 range $17 to $18. broke out 08/25/10. never looked back until $50. hefty pullback. blew out the weak hands. folks such as me will be significant buyers if drops to $26 to $30 range.
Yup, I have standing orders at $30 and $25 (for double the amount at $30) for physical.
Some of your posts are intelligent, some stupid. You seem to believe in the inevitable collapse of the Ponzi/compounded growth system. If not PM's - what is your preferred savings device?
I've been over this. Not silver.
2 reasons, first is that silver is primarily no longer a PM. It's an industrial metal. I proved this by reference to its consumption metrics. All consumption growth in the past 10, 20 years was in industrial use. The wide majority of its demand is industrial.
Second reason is that the shit is not value-dense enough to be a good savings device. If you picked a bugout ranch downwind from a nuke plant, you may have to leave rather abruptly. If the starving zombie hordes surround your ranch and master the sophisticated technology of fire, you may have to leave abruptly. How much silver do you suppose you can pack on your back? In such a situation, there's nobody alive who wouldn't rather have every ounce of wealth in gold.
I like platinum too but it's also industrial primarily but it (and Palladium) is so comparatively rare as to be precious by definition; silver is not. Pt and Pd have less than 1/10th the annual production of gold, which is around 1/10th annual production of silver.
If I shit on silver, don't put the strawman up of "PMs" as if shitting on silver means shitting on PMs. The two terms are not the same and not coextensive.
Fair enough. Thx for explanation.
Edit: I will say that I don't disagree with the dense/mass/store of value question. But what makes silver bulky, IMHO, is what makes it a good money/currency. Only a couple of shavings of gold would pay for a loaf of bread, but a silver dime does nicely.
Exactly, traderjoe. You seem to "get" it.
For wealth preservation...gold is king.
But for good money/currency...silver is superior. Silver dimes, indeed.
All this bickering back and forth from the goldbugs and silverbugs is actually quite humorous. Both metals have their place in a smart person's portfolio, albeit for different reasons. It's best to have both to balance your exposure to the winds of change.
If we truly find ourselves facing a SHTF / TEOTWAWKI scenario in which there's an economic collapse, hyperinflation, and subsequent restructuring, then silver will be best for barter, but gold will be best to safely transfer your wealth through the storm to the other side, and to whatever new currency system we'll have.
Of course, if there's a true economic collapse, then the sudden decline of silver's industrial consumption will dramatically change the value of the metal, as it will shift heavily overnight to being primarily an investor's metal again.
Just get 'em both and sleep well!
Gloating over others potential misfortune. You REALLY ARE AN ASS AREN'T YOU.
Holding all my assets in $'s or other promises to pay will be SOOOO MUCH BETTER. YOU are a TOOL, you are clearly not stupid, so you behavior is intentional - now who pays you off HMMM? Who's book are you talking -- Yours or someone else
translation: "I, Attitude_Check, am one of those bagholders"
you were warned, kid.
Bookmarked
There's a difference between "acceptance" - as in you're finally cool with it and have made peace with the reality of the situation and "acceptance" as in you're bent over, splayed out and physically positioned to accept what is being forced upon you.
Speaking of which, where's Benjamin N. Dover III when you need him?
There's some stage missing between denial and anger, which is ridicule / hubris.
And don't forget the stage when your drinking buddies mock your misery.
There is no way this analysis is correct!
And your promoting it really, really steams me!
Can we agree to not do this any more?
Seriously, I can't sleep, eat, or fuck any more.
Of course, it is spot on. I always knew that.
Only one way to end...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSAeyAV85UM
they missed the greek minister of finance telling speculators they would lose their shirts
These are the stages leading up to recovery from brain injury (www.tbiguide.com):
1) Confusion and Agitation
2) Denial
3) Testing Phase
4) Uneasy Acceptance
Five Stages Of Grief (http://www.memorialhospital.org/):
1) Denial and Isolation.
2) Anger.
3) Bargaining.
4) Depression.
5) Acceptance.
The twelve steps to overcoming alcoholism (AAA):
Step 1: Honesty
Step 2: Faith
Step 3: Surrender
Step 4: Soul Searching
Step 5: Integrity
Step 6: Acceptance
Step 7: Humility
Step 8: Willingness
Step 9: Forgiveness
Step 10: Maintenance
Step 11: Making Contact
Step 12: Service
So my question is: Is bankruptcy easier to cope with than brain injury, grief, or alcoholism?
A side topic...
Denmark enacts border controls
There is still a mechanism to prevent defaults in the periphery.
For example credit deposits are guarrenteed by the state in Ireland - for the indivdual punter it would not matter if his deposit is credit money in the bank or goverment money in the Post office.
If all credit deposits is converted into goverment money Ireland would merely own its own debt and so therefore the domestic money supply would not be externalised.
Of course all credit sensitive assets would revert to their cash price - risk deposits owned by both the ECB & remaining Bond holders would be left with the mortgage paper - they could not get all their money back under a cash economy.
If for example the leverage between private credit & Goverment money is 5 times then convert ALL PRIVATE LOANS to 20% of their oringinal value.
The economies in Ireland & Iberia would rapidly reach equiliberium although the Goverment debt in Greece would have to be written off directly.
The ECB can eat the losses - its a big boy.
If this or something similar does not happen then its best to leave this club.
.
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"I've been over this. Not silver.
2 reasons, first is that silver is primarily no longer a PM. It's an industrial metal.
I like platinum too but it's also industrial primarily but it (and Palladium) is so comparatively rare as to be precious by definition; silver is not. Pt and Pd have less than 1/10th the annual production of gold, which is around 1/10th annual production of silver.
If I shit on silver, don't put the strawman up of "PMs" as if shitting on silver means shitting on PMs. The two terms are not the same and not coextensive."
You forget one aspect of this. That is the factor of liquidity. With gold at ~$50 a gram, and the smallest gold denomination 3 grams, its just not for everyday use.
Maybe someone should market gold foil in fractional grams. You could mount it in clear containers that could be exchanged with special tools.
Until then, Silver has its PM place in the scheme of things.