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Kahnemann And Taleb On Biases, The Illusion Of Patterns And The Perception Of Risk And Denial

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Must watch roundtable with two of the most prominent thinkers of our generation, Daniel Kahnemann and Nassim Taleb. Topics discusses include the GSEs, which according to Taleb "is sitting on a barrel of dynamite" (and everyone agrees), cognitive biases, patterns (and their lack), and risk and denial perceptions. Via DLDConference.

 

h/t Nihilarian

 

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Thu, 03/25/2010 - 14:44 | 275905 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

One mans ticking time bomb is another man's count down to his surprise birthday party, which starts off with a big bang. Can they both be right?

BOOM!

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 14:50 | 275913 Takingbets
Takingbets's picture

Someone must have pissed off Google. It now has the following link in the top spot using their search engine with key words "zero hedge".

It still will not show the direct link to this site!

http://beforeitsnews.com/news/27501/Zero_Hedge_throws_itself_into_the_fight_against_gold_price_suppression.html

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 18:43 | 276238 Dark Space
Dark Space's picture

works for me - top 4 links are to this site

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 22:09 | 276430 Takingbets
Takingbets's picture

Check again my friend. They did change it again but the top spot now belongs to the old blogspot site. Wierd stuff! They started this shit sometime yesterday afternoon.

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 14:54 | 275919 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

"Do not drive a schoolbus blindfolded, as Bernanke did."

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 15:58 | 275996 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

Thats a schoolbus?  I thought it was a nuclear aircraft carrier with the deck covered with live ordnance, thousands of children, kittens and puppies crewed by Yemenese suicide bombers steaming full speed toward the Dover cliffs...

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 16:29 | 276056 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

heh...as Taleb said, it was rather early in the day so I imagine he hadn't had enough coffee yet.

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 16:20 | 276043 Gimp
Gimp's picture

+1 Sarge!

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 17:44 | 276159 Noah Vail
Noah Vail's picture

Taleb has a solution: just change the world.

 

Good luck on that one, Mr. Taleb. Problem is, we got millions of people all working like crazy to remodel the world to the way they think it should be, and none of them agree on much of anything. The Tower of Babel is an apt analogy.

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 17:54 | 276172 Double down
Double down's picture

Taleb is a statist masquerading as a statistician and Stiglitz is moralist masquerading as an economist.  The will to power is enormous.

Am I alone in seeing this? 

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 18:12 | 276195 Nihilarian
Nihilarian's picture

Taleb is a statist masquerading as a statistician.

I respectfully disagree. I have read Taleb and seen many of his speeches. What I've taken away from him is that he wants people to acknowledge that "they don't know" when they don't know. For him, that's the first manner in which you can at least approach risk with your eyes wide open. Statists, on the other hand, are exactly the opposite. They claim to know everything and act as if they do.

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 18:43 | 276239 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Thanks for the gem, ZH!

Thu, 03/25/2010 - 21:37 | 276399 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Taleb had a cold start but he warmed up nicely near the end...... " The world is going to break and establish itself in a way that resists forecast error"

Well it helps if your childhood is in the levant , given a elite education in Paris and work in New York but Taleb is a man on fire.

Sat, 03/27/2010 - 00:58 | 277938 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Taleb had a cold start but he warmed up nicely near the end . . .

 

Really?  OK, based on your comment I'll give it another go tomorrow.  (I lasted 15 minutes before deeming it unwatchable.)

Tue, 04/13/2010 - 06:23 | 297787 mark456
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