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Kansas City Fed's Hoenig: Fed Must Hike Fund Rate To More Normal Level Between 3.5% and 4.5%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"As we look forward in 2010, most economists expect GDP growth will
increase at between 2.5 to 3 percent, with only modest improvement in
labor markets and financial conditions. I am more optimistic. I expect
that GDP growth, at least through 2010, will exceed 3 percent."

"In the case of fiscal policy, the ballooning federal deficit must be
controlled and reduced. If not, the federal debt will soon exceed
national income. As the private sector recovers, increasing demand to
finance both public and private debt will likely place upward pressure
on interest rates. Eventually, there will be pressure put on the
Federal Reserve to keep interest rates artificially low as a means of
providing the financing. The dire consequences of such action are well
documented in history: In its worst cases, it is a recipe for hyperinflation."

"Addressing the deficit will be made all the more complicated by the
fact that many of the stimulus programs are scheduled to wind down in
2011 at the very time the Bush administration tax cuts are also
scheduled to expire. It will be an extremely abrupt shift in fiscal
policy from stimulus to restraint that will cause the economy to
weaken."

"In the case of monetary policy, the challenges are no less daunting.
The Federal Reserve must curtail its emergency credit and financial
market support programs, raise the federal funds rate target from zero
back to a more normal level, probably between 3.5 and 4.5 percent, and restore its balance sheet to pre-crisis size and configuration"

Full speech

 

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Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:09 | 185692 Gobsmacked
Gobsmacked's picture

is this THE definition of "between a rock and fucking even bigger rock, with another rock on top and another below...with a hard place squeezed somewhere within?"

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:12 | 185697 hambone
hambone's picture

+1

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:58 | 185793 Enkidu
Enkidu's picture

+2

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:44 | 185995 Oso
Oso's picture

hahahahahahahaha!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:18 | 186055 dnarby
dnarby's picture

You forgot to replace 'hard place' with 'testicles'.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 18:28 | 186162 Mad About Ewe
Mad About Ewe's picture

BB is feeling it.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:12 | 185695 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

The unemployment he's talking about is gonna be his own if he keeps up with that traitorous heresy.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:06 | 185813 msorense
msorense's picture

Exactly.  No one listens to the Kansas City Fed.  The NY Fed calls all the shots.  Nice try Mr. Hoenig!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:18 | 185710 chet
chet's picture

Man, this guy's days are numbered.  Don't fly on any small planes.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:27 | 185729 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Or big planes for that matter. I shall carry a picture of Hoenig in my wallet for the foreseeable future. If I spot the mug in first class (coach?) I'm missing the plane.

I see this as a trial balloon with the Fed testing the waters. It's interesting that it's coming the day before the "big" unemployment number. I wonder if they (Fed, Treasury etc) will try to talk down any good unemployment numbers with interest rate reality?

I can't shake the old adage that market tops roll over on good news. Any really good unemployment number tomorrow might start the selling. But who really knows?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:51 | 185779 deadhead
deadhead's picture

I can't shake the old adage that market tops roll over on good news. Any really good unemployment number tomorrow might start the selling. But who really knows?

It all sets up perfectly.  the orgiastic nonsense in the ponzi driven banking sector today also sets up.  i can see the smart guys laughing as they sell off some of those shit regionals today that rocketed 10%.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:55 | 185787 xamax
xamax's picture

the selling should be contained in any case due to market support by governement. So there seems to be no risk to go long (and I'm not even sarcastic !). This is what we experience since 1 year ! 

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:58 | 185794 crosey
crosey's picture

I like the trial balloon angle.  This is what has me agreeing with you:

"Economic growth has increased, labor market conditions have begun to stabilize, and housing shows signs of recovery,"

This is a party-line statement from Hoenig, contrary to organic reality, but in part justification for the beginning of an upward rate creep.  GDP, labor, and housing numbers will likely be fudged to fit their reality and plan.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:42 | 185880 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Yeah, what the fk economy is HE looking at??

Freakin EUE keeps going up and up and up.  WHAT growth?  The GDP print would have been 3% lower if not for fudging and massive monetary stimulus!

These bankers and economists are on some kinda drugs man.

A rate-raise to 4% would crush everything.  There isn't much OUT THERE that can produce that type of return anymore!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:48 | 185892 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Agreed. As much as Hoenig appears to be a maverick, he's still in lock step with the rest. I remember watching a magician live and in person as a child. When I asked out loud how he did that, a nearby adult told me to ignore the waving hands, flashing lights and pretty girls and concentrate on where everyone else wasn't looking.

It was good advice to follow then and now. The Fed, for all it's power, relies greatly on moral suasion and subterfuge. I personally think they use it to rip us off but regardless, any central bank would be less effective (at ripping us off) if the magician had to show his/her hand.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moralsuasion.asp

Thus the reason (IMHO) the "audit the fed" bill will ultimately fail. The Fed's puppets (aka Congress) know who has the power and it ain't Congress.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:22 | 185715 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Good luck increasing the overnight rate for cash to 4% when the 3 mo. T-bill is near zero.  They would have to increase interest paid on excess reserves by a proprtionate amount or the banks would suffocate, not to mention all floating HELOCS, option arms, and 2nds would explode.  And how the hell can Treasury absorb a 4% juice drain on a Trillion plus in excess reserves?  So another 40 bill from the Treasury because the banks feel like we are not good risks as debt slaves right now?

 

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:25 | 185727 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Easy:

Tank the stock market (and short sell PMs).

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:36 | 185748 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Tanking the stock market would force 3 mo. yields even lower.  The Fed follows the 3 month, not vice versa.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:22 | 186070 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Maybe, but IMO if they have to, they'll sacrifice stocks to push the money into bonds.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:39 | 186096 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Oh I agree with that contention, I am just disputing the fact they would do it by raising the fed funds rate.  Somehow, some way, they would scare people into bonds.  Someone, maybe Deadhead, mentioned an event that would scare people into bonds. 

i think it would go down more like that.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:35 | 185867 jm
jm's picture

This is why the Fed will issue it's own debt.  It's the only "exit strategy" that keeps adjustable rates from blowing up. 

See one of EB's recent posts on the subject.

 

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:43 | 185883 john_connor
john_connor's picture

wouldn't that compete with Treasury issuance?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:31 | 185969 jm
jm's picture

Sure.  But it seems one of the Fed's ideas on how to absorb bank excess reserves at this point. 

 

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:05 | 186026 john_connor
john_connor's picture

that idea, if instituted, would put even more upward pressure on treasury yields.  forgive my ignorance, but did they mention duration on the "fed bonds"?

This whole thing has the smell of napomb in the morning.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:16 | 186051 jm
jm's picture

It would if they did it right now, but I'm pretty sure if they withdraw liquidity, this will be a, if not the method.

I'm getting the feeling that the Fed knows low rates aren't going to get people to take mortgages, because the issue is leverage collapse.  5% down is 20x leverage etc.  To fix this, they still have a lot of MBS to buy (read: reboot Freddie and Fannie) and they aren't stopping this for anything.  And they sure aren't going to hike fed funds.  But you have to deal with inflation expectations even while they monetize.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:23 | 186072 dnarby
dnarby's picture

That makes sense.

Here comes the currency collapse!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:48 | 185896 trav7777
trav7777's picture

So the Fed's debt is going to compete in the marketplace with the USG's debt?

This one will not go any better for the goldsmiths than it did with King Charles.

Don't we already HAVE Fed Debt...the FRN?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:47 | 186112 baserunr
baserunr's picture

I don't think competition is an issue, at least for the general public.  I can see that the Fed would have no trouble selling bonds to J6P.  Most already think the Fed is just a branch of the gov't anyway.  But I have a hard time accepting that the "Household"sector has another half-trillion to invest in "bonds".

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 23:29 | 186442 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

The Fed debt can be backed with the toxic assets they buy.  LOL

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:21 | 185717 deadhead
deadhead's picture

i don't know what to believe anymore except that i shouldn't believe anything.

that said, is Hoenig starting to panic?  in other words, is he becoming one of the many of us that keep saying "this is not going to end well"?

I just don't know.  this one is curious because Hoenig has certainly made some very definitive statements....

whatever the case, I still believe the Fed will NOT back off cuz they are all in.  they are determined to create an inflationary mess vs the alternative.

hollywood in its best moments cannot even come close to matching the shit we are seeing day to day.

bernanke, summers, geithner have lost it (i exclude wall st and banks from this cuz this is their game and i can see them unloading all of their fitb, sti, rf, key, bac, wfc, c, etc on all the suckers).  anyways, it's an all in bet and they keep raising.

no worry though, cuz I guarantee here is what you will hear from Obama in the future: "The economy was clearly on a path to a strong recovery and all was well until ______________________________________ (fill in your own personal favorite geopolitical event)."

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:00 | 185908 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

the aliens landed on the whitehouse lawn.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:41 | 186099 MagicHandPuppet
MagicHandPuppet's picture

I couldn't agree more.  I smell a false flag event brewing, ready to be plaid just before the house of cards falls.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:22 | 185721 chet
chet's picture

"HOENIG: MUST RESTORE BAL SHEET TO PRE-CRISIS SIZE, CONFIG'RN"

Can the Fed really reduce the balance sheet now?  I haven't been able to get an answer on this.  They can "drain liquidity" by selling some assets (toxic waste) back to dealers.  But isn't that liquidity now on the Fed's balance sheet?

Once they have liquid currency back, can the Fed destroy it outright?  Literally reducing the money in circulation, just as they've increased it through printing?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:24 | 185724 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Words are cheap. Clowns.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:26 | 185728 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You must be kidding.

To whom is the FEd going to sell this garbage to, Pimco? They just finished unloading it. China? HAHA.

There are no jobs, housing is still on its deathbed and the top 1% of the country want higher money market rates.

Kiss my ass Hoenig!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:28 | 185733 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is the man whoshould be Fed Chair

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:03 | 185802 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Not after his next reprogramming, which should be happening in 3, 2, 1...

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:30 | 185736 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

He's only saying that so when the stuff hits the fan
he can say, "Well, I told ya so."

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:31 | 185739 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Okay who's turn is it to make noise about a stronger dollar? Hoenig? You're up.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:38 | 185751 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wow ....I'm getting all teary eyed....

There is actually someone at the Fed that has
common sense....

My friends....the retired are paying a 100% tax....

They get nothing for their savings....

So....answer this for me....

What incentive is there to save....if interest
rates are 0%....forced by the Fed ????

And Bernanke...

Oh my....

This man goes before the public media suggesting
that govt. forced 0% rates do not contribute
to overpricing all types of risks....thereby creating bubbles....

Ok....

Somebody put on their academic hat ....

And convince me otherwise...

Here it is ...

Hoenig has it together....

And BB is nightmare....

A good man that is a fool can sometimes cause more damage
than a crook trying to steal....

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:53 | 186117 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Huh?  The problem is that people think putting money in a "savings" account is an investment, that money has the right to make more money.  That's inflation.

Savings is supposed to be either savings or invested in a producing venture like a *real* investment.

There is no right of money to just grow as if by magic by putting it into a bank.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 19:29 | 186225 saturno_v
saturno_v's picture

+1000

 

Bingo!!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:41 | 185755 E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

Don't listen to a word they say.....WATCH what they do.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:41 | 185756 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

 

Hoenig has no balls.

 

4 pUBLIC CONSUMPTION.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:44 | 185760 hambone
hambone's picture

Definitely has the market and traders worried...markets are up to new yearly highs on this "news".  Seems the market is buying everything but this "press release".

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:45 | 185763 max2205
max2205's picture

Release balloon, shoot balloon, repeat till you run out of balloons and or bullets

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:46 | 185766 Gimp
Gimp's picture

He is off the New Years Party list at the WH for marching to his own beat..to the re-education camp.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:04 | 186027 brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

No big... I hear you don't really have to be on the list to get into White House parties any more.  It's all part of the new era of transparency.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:47 | 185767 John Self
John Self's picture

Dear Mr. Hoenig:  Please forestall your common sense until my refi is finalised.  Many thanks.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:06 | 185810 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

No rate lock?  Don't fear! the Fed will buy many more MBS this year!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 18:41 | 186172 D.M. Ryan
D.M. Ryan's picture

"Give me chastity and continence, but not yet."

- St. Augustine

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:50 | 185777 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Contrast this with Japan's new MinFin, who has as his target yen LIBOR below dollar LIBOR and a yen of "at least" 95. That man WANTS the yen to be the carry trade currency.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:51 | 185778 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

But.. But.. But... that Red Stapler is mine, Mine I tell ya...

*Mumbles* ehf, ehf... I can burn down this building, I can do it.. yes... I can burn this building.

Source, a old movie from several years ago. I forget the title.

With that in mind, the Fed can fasten lips tight around the balloon and blow Zero interest rates... but at some point the interest will rise and back up into the Fed like a blown Sewer line flooded with bull from the plant that is drowned.

I recall 15% interest for bank deposits and a free toaster decades ago. I'm ready to move in if that happens again LOL.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:20 | 185838 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

Office Space.  What, didn't you get the memo?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:31 | 185856 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

Milton Waddams was not going to give up that stapler without a fight...

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:59 | 185795 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

For those who think that Hoenig is out there making these statements on his own as a "renegade" so to speak, I have a word for you: NAIVE

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 14:59 | 185796 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Who's this guy kidding?, must be himself.

Where is this RECOVERY, and WHO is taking out loans?.I see no US recovery, all I see is pleased folks just because ONLY, another 80K+ Americans lost their jobs.

This is a recovery?

Someone is passing the crack pipe.Twice.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:00 | 185797 taraxias
taraxias's picture

For those who think that Hoenig is out there making these statements on his own as a "renegade" so to speak, I have a word for you: NAIVE

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:08 | 185820 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Perhaps. And I tend to agree.

Or he had a terrible nightmare last night where all the Fed governors were lined up and beheaded one by one (and it was a pay-per-view event!) and he paniced and is trying to weasle his way out of "co-conspirator" status.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:22 | 185841 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

One criterion to classify countries is... those which have had a popular revolution vs. those who haven't. Having had a popular revolution is one of the main factors determining how responsive the authorities of a country are to the country's people. Think France vs. US. (I know most ZH readers, as "good Americans", thing France is worthless.)

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:48 | 185893 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Now you're talking...... :)

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:05 | 185915 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Everyone here should read up on King Charles the 1st, the Bank of England, the English Civil War, and tally sticks.

It provides some illumination as to some of the dynamics in play.

In short, Charles busted out the moneychangers by invalidating their tallies, so they financed a revolution which culminated in his execution and the foundation of the Bank of England, a private corporation for 250 years, for which original shares were purchased with...tally sticks.

It's interesting how, through the generations, the same sorts of scumbags have the same sorts of ideas and run the same sorts of cons over and over and over again.  And things always seem to end up bloody.

The American Founders grew up in this BS and this is why we have a bimetallism standard in our Constitutions (Latin Metal Union) and had no central bank.  But, despite this, these bankers' kids and grandkids and great-grandkids just kept coming.  Rothschild was not alive in 1913 to see his company become a founding shareholder of the NY Fed, but for whatever reason, these crooks seem to just keep breeding and they never quit.

Sometimes the populists win, but not over time.  For every throwout or purge of the banking clan/class, they just seem to keep coming back.  Victories against them do not seem to last.  I mean, how long was it between Andy Jackson and the Fed Act?  60 years?  Meanwhile, the BOE was private for 250...how many generations is that?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 19:34 | 186232 Lexington Duffet
Lexington Duffet's picture

Huh?  I'm not so clear on the evil empire premise.  US Const Article I section 8 allows Congress to, inter alia, to Coin money, to borrow Money and to regulate Commerce.  A central bank does these things. 

A central bank may screw up, but on the whole IMO the Fed seems to have worked pretty well overall.  Let me suggest that the problems do not disappear because no entity\person has been appointed to deal with the problems.  And so I would disagree with the abolish the fed crowd.  Maybe appoint new governors with better judgment, but not get rid of the entity entirely. 

Anyway, some history with a time line for comparison.  

"In early 1781 the Articles of Confederation & Perpetual Union were ratified so that Congress had the power to issue bills of credit. It passed later that year an ordinance to incorporate a privately subscribed national bank following in the footsteps of the Bank of England. However, it was thwarted in fulfilling its intended role as a nationwide central bank due to objections of "alarming foreign influence and fictitious credit," favoritism to foreigners and unfair competition against less corrupt state banks issuing their own notes, such that Pennsylvania's legislature repealed its charter to operate within the Commonwealth in 1785.

"Four years after the U.S. constitution was ratified, the government adopted another central bank, the First Bank of the United States, but it would ultimately be shut down by President Madison. The Second Bank of the United States, i.e. the second central bank, met a similar fate when its charter expired under President Jackson. Both banks were, again, based upon the Bank of England,[10] but the increased Federal power, due to the constitution, gave them more control over currency. Political opposition to central banking was the primary reason for shutting down the banks, but there was also a considerable amount of corruption in the second central bank. Ultimately, the third national bank was established in 1913 and still exists to this day. The time line of central banking in the United States is as follows:[11][12][13]

  • 1791–1811
First Bank of the United States
  • 1811–1816
No central bank
  • 1816–1836
Second Bank of the United States
  • 1837–1862
Free Bank Era
  • 1846-1921
Independent Treasury System
  • 1863–1913
National Banks
  • 1913–Present
Federal Reserve System.

Reading about the free bank era, knowing folks who lived through the depression, and seeing the Madoffs and Mozillos of this era in action, the bank and various regulations are in general a well thought out rules scheme and structure.  IMO, toegther they generally work far better than the alternative.   

Now if the Fed Govs can just out vote the soft money policymongers and so IMO better protect the US's long term interests, why Congress might stop acting like pigs and we might even have world peace.

 

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:16 | 185938 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Agree with you, but mostly just like your handsome mugshot.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:30 | 185858 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I don't think it is up to Hoenig or even BB. I think every once in a while,one of them come up with some of those statement probably in an effort to supress gold. I think gold is giving them a nightmare everynight. They are afraid that people might sell there stocks and switch to gold. They probably read a lot of ZH lately,and all that talk about people shipping their capital outside the US. Hence those statement,and probably more of the same later. And then comes Mar,and if the market is not back at 1500,watch for QE2(is that the ship that the UAE bought from Braitain and currently rusting off its shores?).No hikes untill 2015 or 25 % annual inflation(whichever comes first)...

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:31 | 185859 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

what's Hoenig's meta chlorien count?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:31 | 185861 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So, I read ZH every day, but more as a hobby. My boyfriend's in the industry (I'm in medicine) and initially got me started, but my outrage at everything I read has kept me going.

I'm preaching to the choir, but honestly, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I got into arguments with my mom @ Thxgiving & X-mas dinners over the state of the economy b/c she thinks things are improving (she also thinks Obama's doing a GREAT job- I didn't touch that).

I really need to ask, even though I've been keeping up with ZH for almost a year: is it all for real and are you worried too? I'm about ready to seek out a cabin in the woods to hide in, but outside the ZH sphere everyone seems to be hunky-dory. I'm 24, so I keep getting the answer "the government's always been screwed up, you've just never been old enough to care before."

Am I naive and this is business as it has been over the course of US history, or are things royally F*ed up at this point?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:40 | 185988 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Things are more fucked up.  Go read about "peak oil" and you'll feel even worse, trust me lol.

We are basically at an end of 400(?) years worth of where the creditmoney fractional reserve racket can function.  Like it or not, this thing is going to come undone.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:19 | 186058 Oso
Oso's picture

no, things are actually REALLY f'd up and getting worse.  You're not taking crazy pills, though all of us here feel the same way.  I know a lot of people around the country who are buying big guns and whiskey - not even kidding.   And i get into the same arguments with my mother wrt: Obama and the world.  Frankly, i get into a lot of those arguments with a lot of people.  None of them can point to any proofs other than, "but Obama is so dreamy."

 

a lot of people are getting very mad.  I honestly am surprised that civil unrest hasnt started yet... but i dont see how it wont. 

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:30 | 186080 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Don't be scared.  Be prepared.  And this too shall pass.

Eventually we'll have sound money, transparent banking, a reduced and transparent central government, thorium reactors providing cheap, clean power, states and communities making their own decisions (and accountable to those living near them), etc.

It's just getting to the other side w/o dispairing that's the trick.

But be of good cheer!  Creative destruction will not be denied.  It's all for the best.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:56 | 186118 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We lived in the shadow of NIKE Missile Batteries, Cold Alerts and potential destruction from nuclear war which was about 26 minutes flight time from Moscow or 5 minutes by sub/sea launches.

We remember the early 70's when the Arabs shut the Oil off to the USA. We endured rationing, long lines at the gas pumps with no guarantee of gas after hours of waiting in line. Then we had odd-even days where your license plate decided who got gas on which day of the week.

We had bad times in the 70's and again the early 80's when we had small crashes and no one could buy a car at 15% or a house at 12% or less. A 15% car loan turned a 5 year 7600 loan into something like 16000 dollars when it's all done and paid.

We had battleships shooting into Lebanon and Marines being blown up in Beirut. Even then we went into Iran to grab the hostages and it fizzled. We had the balls to go do stuff in those days. I think some really crazy stuff is only now being unclassified for history channel entertainment.

Alot of things this year was a fantasy back then. The hype was about taking care of yourself, getting a good position or a union job and crank out a decent workday. Today no one can get anything and everything is too expensive to make here in the USA except for nuts and bolts or mental health workshops processing expensive mail room tasks.

In those days Bruce Springsteen sang Born in the USA and it rocked. Now that song sung today brings bittersweet feelings because that too became reality. Again.

We are not totally F*ed up YET... but our eyes are open and we are willing to share this with birds of a like feather.

And cut loose those who have... roses colored glasses and smile in adoring joy at the news casting portraying BULLSHIT as all things are A-OK.

We aint buying it.

This aint Kansas anymore (Wizard of Oz -1939) but... even in this place there are many Americans who believe and will do what it takes to keep thier loved ones out of trouble with whatever they feel is necessary.

The problem is we aint found a direction as a whole. This group is smart and I enjoy it. And learn too.

The masses are just cats roaming hither thither and yon always racing towards the smell of salmon and promise of bliss in a sunbeam.

This cat is working on keeping a safe haven, provisions and preparing to deal with whatever. As they say in the Good Book, many things have happened and shall come to pass.

No fear left anymore. Just a determined action that provided concrete results each and every day.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 18:11 | 186147 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

If you've been lurking for a year, you have already figured out the prevailing sentiment here.  Your medical training puts you in a good position going forward.  As my ex-gf (a physician) says, "I can always trade medical care for chickens."

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 23:10 | 186424 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

conversely - what if ZH groupthink is incorrect? Don't get me wrong - I am ZH, hook, line, and sinker. But I do have days when I wonder.

Someone once mentioned to me that the "bear" view is very rational, and as such, makes a very compelling argument. In the meantime, the market does its own thing...

Fri, 01/08/2010 - 01:46 | 186526 merehuman
merehuman's picture

like you a commoner, ordinary folk, never was a survivalist before. After seeing the looting going on now, removal of the law for those in control and a controlled population via a coopted mass media and under educated public,...i am scared too. My fear is this will get outa hand and we end up with the war NOBODY wants. Food,gun and bullets, silver and gold, surrounded by true best friends and family and your own garden away from population centers.

 

Fri, 01/08/2010 - 02:13 | 186531 Tethys
Tethys's picture

I would say you are on the right track in trying to learn more about what is going on (as opposed to what the powers that be, through the 'media', want you to believe).  ZH is a great place to start, but I take everything I read with a grain of salt - and try to read from as many sources as possible to before forming an opinion.

That said, are we 'proper F*cked'?  Most likely - but also realize that historically humanity seems to constantly be 'proper F*cked' - now it may seem worse since we have a little more insight on just how bad it is, day-to-day, via sites like this.

If we are hosed, preparation is good.  Also, it wouldn't hurt to take some time out and really enjoy the things you have now.  They will be missed when the $hit jumps off.

 

Fri, 01/08/2010 - 07:38 | 186595 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I feel the same. I think the big gamechanger now is the Internet with its incredible access to likeminded people and excellent sites (like ZH). When we start seeing denial of access and a clamping down on sharing of info (which I fully expect), we will know that the end crunch is coming.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:34 | 185865 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Keep rates low watch oil prices rise to 150 and what left of economy goes boom, raise rates and economy goes boom
quicker, my guess is they will go with what ever
buys them the most time...As it is it pretty clear they are just trying to hold thing together for a few more years either by design(ie they know the debt and dollar won't matter becuase some global cataclism is on its way and they
will be safe in there island bunkers) or they are just
a bunch of random drunk incompotent currupt baffoon running around like chicken with there heads off. Either way we are screwed, perhaps copyinh .gov is the best way to go leverage up and live it up becuase tommorow really may not matter...

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:35 | 185869 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hoenig, is of course, completely correct.
The problem is he's speaking into an abyss.
The path was chosen long ago, Hoenig is not privy
to the plans being made now for 10-20 years from
now either.
America will be prolapsed financially and relegated to lesser
world status as per Brzezinski and Kissinger.

Next up, the great world embargo of America.

-MobBarley

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:37 | 185870 hambone
hambone's picture

Economy is better.  Ok.  But how?  Has anyone seen a credible, fact based rationale for markets continuing their ascent (either via endless govermental support or via the market sprouting wings to take on ever greater credit/debt)? 

Or is it like religion where you simply have to have faith in a higher power?  Damn, I wish I could find religion.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:44 | 185886 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yup.....good cop bad cop still a cop full stop.

Everyone getting the feeling that a new kind of "accounting" should be implemented?

Nothing to defer or write-off.

No intra/interperiod tax differentials.

Every boardlot of each issue has a unique cusip.

Just teasing:)

40muleteamborax

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 17:14 | 186045 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Yeah, this intentional confusion of the masses by the Federal Reserve minions is getting really old.

While I'd prefer they just shut their collective pieholes and do whatever illegal thing they are going to do; they are going to continue this verbal assault until we explode.

You can tune all this out by doing one simple thing-- watch what they do... not what they say.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:46 | 185889 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Heli-Ben won't like the fact that one of his sub-ords actually wants to give savers some ROI, protect the integrity of the dollar, pop the current stock market/bond market/junk bond market/commodities bubbles, adjust the price of capital appropriately......

Ben is, no doubt, the definition of moral hazard. He is a cheap money whore, and will leave this economy in shambles with his Princeton drivel.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:34 | 185975 trav7777
trav7777's picture

All these guys care about is the spread.

Real Bills Doctrine puts an end to the sovereign debt trade, that is why anyone who tries it gets assassinated or an immediate war.

The elites borrow from the CB at 0% and lend to the government at 3%.  It's a good trade of free money riding the credit inflation wave.  If heliBen were to print up everyone a million dollars, they profit from inflation because they get their million before you do.

Money should not be owned by banks; this situation is an abomination that has led to more wars, deaths, ruin, the Holocaust, than any other.  Let the producers who dig up oil, gold, coal, farm for food or create things be the capital that finances expansion, not some parasitic banking clan who monopolized the gold market.

Everything that is occurring is to protect the creditmoney fractional banking racket, which has been institutionalized since the 1600s and goes back even to the time of Jesus.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:54 | 186015 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Well said.  Academics rarely know how real life works and their principals implemented in real life rarely achieve their goals. 

As life is not just learned knowledge but the knowledge on how to apply that knowledge.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:47 | 185890 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Hoenig??? Passmore???  These ARE NOT real guys names!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:51 | 185895 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Why do you bother even paying attention to this? Yeah, definitely filling up space. Take a day or two off and stick to real stories please..... this is more of a fluffer than Bartiromo at a banker's christmas party.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 15:50 | 185900 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I doesn't matter what the Fed does, rates are going up regardless of what they do. Check out $TNX (10 year Treasury) which has moved from 2.04% on 12/15/08 to 3.18% today. This 50% increase is despite all of the QE and other BS they have done to keep rates down. This will only get worse as the trillions in debt to be refinanced comes home to roost in 2010.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:05 | 185916 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

duh. tell it to Zimbabwe Ben.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:08 | 185922 windiepink
windiepink's picture


..."natural rate of interest" doctrinaire by Thomas Hoening, "your Nation wants employment? You do know we have the right fit interest rate plan for you! Our banks are sitting on considerable cash reserves, money is no object. Now will that be for white collar jobs or blue collar jobs?" 

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:38 | 185982 trav7777
trav7777's picture

How in the hell did we ever let hacks such as these people control our money supply?

GFD they did this shit 300 years ago, when England came out of a state of perpetual war 140M pounds in debt to the BOE.  And they taxed the bejeezus out of every colony and everyone they could, trying to make the masses back into feudal serfs, precipitating the American Revolution and god knows how many major wars.

And here we are in 2010 reading from the same script.  Enough is enough.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 16:37 | 185980 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Anonymous # 185861 - yes non-housing portion of economy is getting better but if you would mark-to-market assets for the overall economy, we are worse off now than before the crisis began !! Plus Americans have been brainwashed and conditioned into believing that a rising stock market = great economy and thus increase your spending !!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 18:11 | 186146 rapier
rapier's picture

Yea, sure. The Fed must raise rates, and the Cubs must win the World Series, and every little girl must get her own live magic pony.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 18:17 | 186151 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Oh look, the fed is boning my jaw again.
Where are the flowers and chocolate?

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 21:09 | 186339 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This guy believes in the way the fed used to be where it didn't pander to the stock market. That's the way it should be now but his counterparts are the ones pressing the buy button. I mean seriously, what did GE run up on today in the middle of the day? Nothing!

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