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Katla Update: 2 Earthquakes In 3 Hour Span
As everyone is focusing on Europe's impoverished white swans begging for the Fed's FX swans in some Brussels gutter, the grey one is preparing to let rip. Eyjafjallajokull's far bigger cousin, which has always erupted whenever Eyjafjallajokull went active, and whose seismic readings many have been keeping an eye on, has now recorded 5 earthquakes in the past 5 days, with 2 in a 3 hour span today alone. Should Katla blow, Jim O'Neill will be forced to seriously reevaluate the risk factors section in his recent upcoming report: "Why only idiots bet on red in Europe. And oh yes, BRIC, BRIC, BRIC."
From Beforeitsnews.com
The earthquakes at the Katla volcano site appear to possibly be increasing in frequency as of this moment (time will tell however). Since May 17 there have been four earthquakes at or very near Katla, while a 5th just on the edge of the Myrdalsjokull glacier.
Although 4 or 5 earthquakes at the volcano site in 4 days does not indicate a drastic change in pattern, the interesting notation at the moment is the fact that the two most recent earthquakes occurred within 3 hours of each other on 21 May, 2010, at depths of 5km and 13km. That in itself is an increase in occurrence. It may be an anomaly, but it justifies keeping one eye on Katla, the big sister of Eyjafjallajokull.
h/t @mbjjb
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Nobody cares - hey we are working here. Desperately pushing up the Euro, pushing down the Yen . Need to get that Dow up up up. Cannot have it close below 10,000. Now - Thats important.
Saw the escape velocity move at the close, prime.
Well played my man, well played.
'Course there's going to be some risk carried into the weekend on that one. And more than a few opex losers eating their livers ... but other than that ... impressive.
Well, maybe wuz, maybe wuzzn't, but don't know the magnitude, and didn't print on the USGS World Wide web site, ait'-all. So.....
An eruption won't help, and will give everyone an excuse on which to blame the problem. Bummer.
(The problem is debt created by man. The excuse will be it's all God's fault.)
Nobody could have seen it coming....
If Katla pops, maybe BP can put a cork in it.
(Maybe they should do that anyway.)
They are bussy mixing MUD to pump it in the BOP this weekend :)
As we speak they are building one of the biggest sandblasters in the world. By monday, the BOP should be all sandblasted away, and the leak will finally be at about 170.000 barrels a day.
Is that a decimal or a comma?
The mudshot will not work. Two reasons.
1) Once they plug the BOP with the junkshot @ 5,000-10,000 PSI... pressures in the main well below the BOP will increase to @ 20,000 PSI (the ambient pressure in the reservoir) which will probably just blow out the fresh rubber junkshot. High pressure mud must be initially injected at a high enough pressure and volume to overcome residual leakage remember. The junk shot should reduce the flow substatially however... but will not end it.
2) More importantly... If the junkshot/mudshot works and the well is cemented then the game is over for BP. They will be allowed to resume drilling this particular lease only when Palin is President. If however the mudshot fails? They will still be able to complete the 'relief' well over the next month or two and when the first well is sealed well why not just turn the 'relief' well into a production well... 50,000 BPD after all is around $1.3 billion per year... just sayin'...
If they are really serious however... liquid mercury at 13.5 g/cc is a much better bet to do the job then 'heavy' mud at a measely 2.0 g/cc...
Live webcam is up... they are recovering 5,000 BPD but there still is a teeny bit of leakage...
http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam/
You are dramatically under estimating the PSI of the oil flow. I have read articles that estimate the pressure from the well between 70,000 - 150,000 PSI depending whether the well was sunk at the edges or center of the oil field.
I know... I read that stuff too... but... when I do the calcs it say's differently.
Shale/sandstone/limestone have specific gravities of around 2.5 g/cc... (40g/cubic inch) about 2.5 times heavier than water. 20,000 ft(+or-) is 240,000 inches times 40/454 is 21,000 PSI or the weight of the overlying seds. You can add on the 2,500 PSI from the water column but still... and the reservoir pressure must be less so...
brilliant,
they can get you a live web cam stream but can't shut it off...errr hello?
An interesting problem in particle dynamics. I don't necessarily agree with you conclusion that the junkshot will be blown backwards when the pressure at the plug reaches reservoir pressure - as it must. On the one hand the plug would be more likely to blow because its kinetic energy will be dissipated. Stated diffenently, it had a bit of "stagnation pressure" moving into the pipe to overcome the static and dynamic pressure of the oil flowing against it. On the other hand, once the flow stops - assuming that it does - there will no longer be any shearing stress against the junshot faces parallel to the flow. So those forces will be permanently removed.
If I were running the show, I would want my junkshot at cryogenic temperatures to start the process so that: 1) it would chill and increase the viscosity of the crude in the pipe, and 2) exand when it eventually stabilized at the much higher temperature of the ocean bottom. Of course that might develop enough pressure to split the well casing and we would have the same problem all over.
If you really wanted to get sophisticated by playing the shot density angle, the way to go would be to use depleted uranium shot over your very interesting suggestion of liquid mercury. Most DU rounds I believe are alloyed to be hard, but the unalloyed metal is soft like lead. They don't call them kinetic energy weapons for nothing. Another fancy twist would be using uranium hexaflouride - basically depleted uranium gas. Interesting stuff. Has a triple point right around standard atmospheric conditions. I worked in a separation plant one summer. It used the old membrane technology, with thousands of compressors. With that much momentum in the form of incredibly dense gas moving around, you can bet that they were reall worried about sudden compressor stoppages. So why not just super heat some UF6 in a machine on the ocean floor and blow the gaseous stuff into the BOP and down the hole? I still have trouble envisioning how the little golf balls will get into the BOP.
I've been wrong before but...
I believe the crude in the pipe is moving far too quickly to be even marginally cooled by a small volume of cryogenically frozen rubber or precooled oil. The viscosity is a non-issue I think (Remeber there is natty in there too!) And an remaining leakage at the BOP will quickly replace the vicous oil with the rising warmer oil. The kinetic energy of the oil in the well is minimal when compared to the hydrostatic pressures since the flow is on the order of only meters per second so I don't foresee a prob there.
The junkshot (if successful) risks being blown out if too much additional pressure to pump the mud down is used... think about it... mud must displace oil/gas so most (if not all) of the flow has to be stemmed first. That's the Junkshot. Good. Now the mud must be injected and allowed to gravitationly 'fall' through the oil column to the reservoir rock or be pressure pumped there (pumping at pressure increases the risk of further fracking). Once in that 400 ft zone it plugs the vents in the pipe casing where the oil is hopefully entering. A column of mud equal to or exceeding the reservoir pressure must accumulate to do the job. Very tricky work indeed. Mercury at least would not require additional pumping and willeasily find it's way down to the reservoir zone.
Depleted uranium is not a liquid and thus can not seal... the oil/gas will migrate around it.
There is another issue. I do not think BP knows what they have got. They are trying to advance a "fix" and they have not yet advanced any theory with regard to well failure mode.
My hunch is they had a channelled cement job which permitted formation fluids to enter the annulus between the casing and well bore. When the riser was displaced to water the decreased head resulted in failure of one of the upper casing hanger seals. This would explain the good positive pressure test and the failed negative pressure test. The casing hanger seals are designed to contain formation pressures in the casing from exiting to outside the string. I do not believe they are designed to contain formation pressures in the annulus entering the well as on a properly constructed well there should be no pressure in the annulus except for the producing zone.
If the above is correct there is a further problem in that the depth of the failed casing hanger is not known. Nor do we know the stratigraphy between the casing seal and the mudline. If this is unconsolidated sediment then the "junkshot" runs the risk of sealing the BOP while transferring formation pressures to the sediments below the mudline. 21,000 PSI is nothing to play with. I suspect BP has a good chance of making a serious problem much worse.
Sushi! Just the guy/gal we need here...
If you are correct... which you well may be... then I concur we are truly fu%&ed and the additional pressure build from a successful junkshot could be the "Goldman Kiss" that escalates this adventure to a whole new level.
Did you catch the 60 Minutes segments on this? Pieces of the rubber annular ring were showing up in the drilling mud weeks before... you know... at the same time the Transocean employee destroyed one of the BOP stacks with an errant joystick manouver...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLJHTTOSkpg
Thanks for the link to 60 Mins video.
I was not aware of the damaged annular preventor. That plus the loss of the second control pod is equivalent to driving down a mountain on a car that you know has no brakes.
Hayward's statement that the fault lies with Transocean is indicative of the nature and extent of the problem with BP. As the operator of the well BP bears full legal responsibility for all issues associated with that well and for the performance of each of its sub-contractors.
Williams is lucky he survived. His description of central nervous system problems (no taste, no hear, no smell) is indicative of H2S posioning.
I am not familiar with US law but a charge of criminal negligence would appear to be appropriate. BP is another example of TBTF enterprise. If the formal investigation confirms William's testimony I think BP should be Arthur Andersoned.
US LAW? Oh yea whatever BP says .
3) The inertia of the flowing oil up the bore hole will be incredible, plumbers call it the "hammer effect"...that happens when one quickly turns off a spigot...in this case, potentially blowing the top off the well casing.
No air or vacuum = no hammer... the flow will slowly stop... if it stops...
Wow, I would like to take up a collection to put Zero, Celsius, ChanceIs, Sushi and Rusty on a plane to Washington to fix this problem. Interesting banter between you all. I am always amazed at the brain power that posts on this site. Enjoyed reading your comments.
Sometimes I think the a$$h*le$ at BP are just fu&%ing with us. (Disclaimer: former Exxon divisional VP in family...)
I'll save everyone the cost of the trip.
Run a large compressed air line(s) to the leak(s) (anything over 2,500 PSI)... freely releasing compressed air at the leak should create a lift effect that will bring the oil (and non-absorbed gas) quickly to the surface in a very locallized area. The compressability factor of oil is one reason why it is not curently rising well... 1/2% per 100 PSI... makes it over 10% denser and closer to the density of seawater at 5,000 feet down.
Next use a large (500 meter diameter or so) floating weighted 'curtain' to encircle and capture the now localized rising oil and pump it on board a ship... as the curtain naturally drifts off just run a new one in a ring at the same location... wash, rinse and repeat.
Problem contained but not solved and hurricanes still suck!
When I heard they were planning a "junk shot" to save the well I thought they intended to inject BP CEO Hayward and his board of toadies into the BOP and let them duke it out with the formation fluids.
BP saw no problem with exposing all the drill rig personnel to the same hazard so I cannot see them raising any objection to such a proposal.
Sadly, I think the only sure thing is waiting on completion of the relief well. Until that completes we are left watching "The Marx Brothers Go Offshore" and a bonus second feature: "Howdy Doody: The Regulator."
Not so fast sushi... there are laws against throwing trash overboard!
They are drilling straight down and then horizontally quite some distance across the reservoir rock to reach within 3 feet of the leaking well... but kindly remember the 30% reservoir rock porosity... and the oil doesn't care which exit it uses to escape the crushing pressures...
This theoretically could cause the pressure (and volume) in the leaking well to increase just as easily as decrease.... we just don't know.
And we should get started on the screen play immediately!
Once again, thanks to all for the education. Fascinating reading, though certainly not heartening.
I learn more here in five minutes than I did in all my time in college. Stupid state school.
I'm hoping Clown College yields more positive benefits for me (and by extension, you!).
MP
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Zerohead, as the oil is going out, Whats going in?
Nothing goes in unless it's under presssure. When the ambient reservoir pressure declines after years of production to the point where pumping (water or other injections) is required is the only time something enters the reservoir... it's a one-way dealio.
Haha, good point. Black water and black skies - doesn't paint a pretty picture.
Keep the Virgins and sacrifice the Bankers.
But if there is any virgin bankers out there it would be best to throw them into the inferno.
This will save them from eternal damnation.
Oh,,the BEST...can't quit laffin....
Philosophical question: If you are a virgin banker doing the F'ing, but in fact are not being F'ed, are you still a virgin?
If you are a virgin banker... it just means you take it in the ass and you have always taken it in the ass... still a virgin... that is all.
Like a Jehovah's Witness I know... she insists if she does not remove her panties during sex... she did not have sex out of wedlock...
Who knew the Bible and JW's had fine print...
three canadians in line and st. peter says,' whoever can tell me why we celebrate easter will pass into heaven'.
the first in line says,' easter is when everyone gets dressed up in costumes and knocks on doors for treats,' . st peter dismisses her. next one says easter is when the easter bunny comes down the chimny with gifts for under the tree... 'enough' said st. peter,'next'.
the last of the three said,' easter is celebrated after good friday when Christ was crucified. His body was then taken by the jews to a tomb and a big stone was rolled in front of the entrance.
st. peter was pleased.
the last one then continued.' on easter sunday the jews returned to the tomb and rolled back the big stone and Jesus walks out and if he sees his shadow there's another 6 months of hockey...
Jesus saves...Gretzgy rebounds...he shoots...he SCORRRRRES!!
Would a virgin banker be one who has never screwed anyone over? Good luck
LMAO
Well 4 and 20 virgin bankers came down from Inverness..........
www.chivalry.com/cantaria/lyrics/ballbali.html
So THAT's the news that triggered all the buying a few minutes before close today. I had thought maybe it was some entity who absolutely-positively could not let this market end in the red today.
But, wouldn't you know, it was all that Good News in the world that encouraged people to go long into the weekend.
I can just hear the talking heads now, "A big jump up today in the Dow, as markets rallied in support of the Financial Reform bill …"
With no mention, of course, of the massive sell-off that preceeded the relatively low volume pump that spiked the markets.
painting the tape.....
+1
sold the XOM 60 puts to the Fed at 25 till close. Thanks Ben
Yeah - its all completely blatant - breathtaking manipulation. I guess no body cares. Push stocks up to where you need them ( to maximize your derivatives P&L) - 5 minutes before the close. Thats OK.
I sold almost all my puts at opening and bought C, BAC, GS, GE DRYS, EXM, S, GOOG and WFC.
The only shorts I kept are BP and my Gold turbo's.
On monday, I think I'll go long on oil also.
oh lookie, a volcano just erupted..........uhh, nope it's just shorts being busted at the close
Yes toasters are on and about to be thrown in the tub for full effect = roasted shorts
Or the Feds/banks doing their usual song and dance of buying up everything at the last minute to make things seem rosier than expected.
Think back to the days of Greenspan when everyone swore he hated the market.
Historically, how long after Eyja eruption did it take Katla to pop?
"Every time Eyjafjallajokull has erupted [...] Katla follows behind, always erupting within the same year, sometimes just a few months after its little sister"
http://tamunews.tamu.edu/2010/04/20/another-iceland-volcano-to-erupt-kat...
Eyjafjallajokull can rumble along for years before Katla cuts loose. Or Katla can go tomorrow.
Funny thing about those volcanos, they are just a force of nature.
The frequency of earthquakes is a good indicator but I don't think onesies and twosies count as much as tensies and hundredsies (see Mt. St. Helens) but any sort of ramp up should be considered a warning.
old_turk is right you cannot say for sure when it will happen BUT i read recently that it can take at least "a few months or years"...
Daily charts look so much nicer now after that surge. A classic "reversal". I bet this is all they need to start the rally again on Monday.
Sheesh.
Well - the Aussie was impressed , but not Mr. yen. Curious.
Here's a link if you'd like to keep a closer eye on Katla
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/eq_island.html
Webcam is here
http://www.ruv.is/katla/
Pretty foggy right now though, can't see the volcano.
Thank God for Bernankie PPT. Went from Short to long yesterday on Metal Stocks and almost lost my sorry little Assets.
Sometimes you win sometimes you lose but today I was happy to see his support.
Being Long yesterday was almost too much to "BEAR". Think I will go Short again next Tuesday, although we are heading into Labor Day. Where they really ramp stock back up before the Holiday. You know they have to GOUGE people with Gas Pump Prices for the Holiday.
It's Labor Day already? Damn, I gotta cut down on the xanax and cough syrup.
Just have obama and CONgress BAN earthquakes.
About halfway down the page on www.survivalblogs.com you'll see listings of magnitude 5+, 2.5+ earthquakes, and general shakings going on around the world.
Interesting to watch these earthquakes cluster....and now...CA is getting its share.
so what are the plays when it erupts? long wheat, short airlines? others? thx
Longjohns.
This site needs an opposite of Junk button. Hilarious.
+ 3600
I'm selling my canoe a purchasing some skates and a ski-doo.
Most of Katla's eruptions have been relatively small. A better indicator of a an impending Katla eruption would be an earthquake swarm particularly one in which the depth of the earthquakes decreases with time, indicating magma is moving toward the surface. Such a procession does not have to occur prior to an eruption, but would be a strong indicator that an eruption is imminent.
Now, if you are looking for DOOM - check out Mt. Rainer http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/VOLC/STAR_SHZ_UW_--.2010052112.html
The actual likelihood of Mt. Rainer erupting in our lifetime is about the same as Goldman Sachs having a two consecutive losing trading days.
Where do you find that info?
The thing that has everyone worried is the fact that in the past 1,000 years, all 3 documented times the unpronounceable one erupted, Katla followed soon thereafter...and if I'm not mistaken, those were biggies.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-03=&volpage=erupt
It is not known if an eruption at Eyjafjallajokul induces an eruption at Katla or if it is just a geologic coincidence (where's the fun in that?), although they are so close, they may share a common magma source.
Here's a plot of earthquake depth vs. location showing the current difference b/t Eyjafjallajokul, Hekla, and Katla. When the area under Katla looks like Eyjafjallajokul, then its time to get worried.
http://i49.tinypic.com/2nvwk79.png
With all the quakes on the pacific rim of fire I just hope no more volcanoes come up there. That would probably put enough ash up with the Iceland issue to shorten my crop season.
Lava bitches!
Mother Earth says "Smells like ...Victory." "BITCHES!" isn't there a pill for this?
Volcanoes - soon, that's how monetary crisis will be dealt with: press red button for instant global liquidity (hence the name: heya, fiatsco jocul(ation)).
And I looked when He broke the sixth seal, and there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth made of hair, and the whole moon became like blood;
13 and the stars of the sky fell to the earth, as a fig tree casts its unripe figs when shaken by a great wind.
14 And the sky was split apart like a scroll when it is rolled up; and every mountain and island were moved out of their places.
15 And the kings of the earth and the great men and the commanders and the rich and the strong and every slave and free man, hid themselves in the caves and among the rocks of the mountains;
16 and they said to the mountains and to the rocks, "Fall on us and hide us from the presence of Him who sits on the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb;
17 for the great day of their wrath has come; and who is able to stand?"
should be good for the gold price if that lot happens.
The March 2009 lows won't hold.
Updated DOW daily and weekly charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1