- advertisements -
Here's the link to the complete document (Breakfast w/Dave 11/10/2009):
Thanks Carina, very interesting, but be careful with COT reports. A lot more speculation happens in the OTC markets.
From 11/10/2009 Breakfast with Dave (David Rosenberg):
Looking at the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we can see some pretty interesting (and potentially disturbing) trends taking place (data for November 3rd):
I'll keep saying it because it still isn't understood even by the people 100 times smarter than me. If the big hedge, pension and other funds that have gone long in gold or gold ETFs want to see there investment beat the long term suppressionary forces of the Bullion Banks, and commercials and the non-economic trades backed by certain local Central banks, they need to gain the high ground.
The high ground in the Precious Metals Battle is Physical Silver and Gold.
The cartel knows this and it seems like they are using the leveraging relation of silver to gold to sell silver into the market to keep gold from blowing through $1650 and in fact trying to take it back to down to $1040.
$100 Million spent to take physical silver off the COMEX and converting GLD and SLV to 1000 OZ. bars of silver and gold is one of the fastest ways to take away the small amount of physical ammo that the huge gold and silver custodians use to make their short plays have any leverage.
The battle will be won on the physical level, not the paper level and the sooner the fund managers get this and start working with that knowledge on the broadest possible basis, the sooner gold and silver hit their inflation adjusted highs in my opinion. They have the money but do they have the guts and the knowledge?
This is all just my opinion and not investment advice.
Is this similar to the manipulations and problems US bimetal policy in the 1880s caused?
Duh, Leo....we are Japan circa 1989 only our debt to GDP
has already surpassed theirs at that point. Check the
IMF figures. The 10 year bond will be snapped up for the next five years while Japanese style spikey rallies will
exhibit lower highs and lower lows on the way to the
ultimate bottom. Bernanke can't print enough or debase
the dollar enough to stop this from happening. Do the
math. This reflation/inflation trade is just a phase
we're passing through just as Japan did.
There is a possibility that we enter a long protracted downturn and experience our lost decade, just as Japan did. If so, pensions will be snapping up long-term bonds as they adopt liability-driven investing. It's already happening. But if there is a stronger than expected global recovery, watch out, inflation expectations will shift.
Understood. We are on the same page except
for the strength of the global recovery.
I think it will be quite weak and equities
and commodities will ultimately be
crowded out by sovereign debt. In effect,
UK, Eurozone and USA are ALL Japan now
with similar debt to GDP profiles of
early 90's Japan and rising to 118% by
(referencing IMF figures and projections)
That being said, I estimate the lost
decade will be cut to 5-8 years. Course,
that's an eternity.
Mad Max has it
PAYOLA trumps PAYGO
Since 1978 I have built up and saved 1478 pounds of gold. It's in the basement of my house. Is this safe?
Uh...I dunno, what was your address again?
"Now the Indians have decided that they have more dollars than they want."
I think pretty much everybody has more dollars than they want... I know that I do.
How much credibility should we put in the stated auction results - how do we know those weren't purchases by covert operations of the Fed, or by banks that had "gentleman's agreements" that the Fed would (somehow, post-QE) purchase the notes a short time later at a price that would make a profit to the bank?
Question from a novice:
Don't you get an indication of real demand by how much the primary dealers themselves are stuck buying out of each auction?
And how much the Fed buys back from them 3 to 10 days later by whatever lettered program is all the rage at Bernak-ster Printing, Ink... I mean Inc.?
Stop making sense.
Hurrah, finally someone sees the real (lack of) inflation picture.
"But the Fed noted in its statement that it’s still going to be paying close attention to inflation expectations in the marketplace..."
But the problem is that by the time you recognize the effects of inflation, it's already too late.
So 'yes', morons. Keep the spigots open. But leave the window open as well, so you can plunge to your death once you 'see' inflation on the horizon.
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertise With Us
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
How to report offensive comments
Notice on Racial Discrimination.