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Key Events In The Upcoming Week: US And China Trade Balance And Inflation Data

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Key events in the upcoming week, from Goldman Sachs

The week begins with the China – US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (Monday and Tuesday), which will be held in Washington, DC, and will no doubt once again include discussion of the pace of appreciation of CNY against US$. The week also brings a slew of China data, including the trade balance, where consensus expects a small surplus (far below the historical average surplus), and CPI inflation for April, which we see at 5.1% yoy, slightly below consensus. The week ends with the US CPI, where we expect another unfriendly CPI report, with headline CPI rising by 0.39% mom in April, essentially in line with consensus.

Monday May 9th

China – U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (Monday and Tuesday) These meetings will be held in Washington, DC, and will no doubt include discussion of the pace of CNY appreciation against US$.

Taiwan Trade Balance (Apr) According to the latest trends from export orders, we have seen some front-loading of export demand, likely due to the uncertainties over supply chain disruptions in March. April data will allow us to better gauge the extent of this front-loading.

Mexico INPC Inflation (Apr) We expect headline to come in at 3.33% yoy in April, up from 3.04% yoy in March. This is essentially in line with consensus, which is looking for a rise to 3.32% yoy.

Tuesday May 10th

China Trade Balance (Apr) We expect April export growth to moderate to 30.0% yoy, down from 35.8% yoy in March. This is a touch above consensus (29.5% yoy). We expect import growth to rise to 28.0% yoy, up from 27.3% yoy previously. Consensus here expects growth of 28.9% yoy. Consensus expects a trade surplus of $3.2 bn in April, up from $0.1 bn in March. This is still far below the historical average of around $20-25 bn.

Wednesday May 11th

China CPI, IP & FAI (Apr) We expect CPI inflation to fall to 5.1% yoy, down from 5.4% yoy in March. This is below consensus, which is looking for a reading of 5.2% yoy. Our forecast for IP is 15.0% yoy, up from 14.8% yoy in March and above consensus of 14.6% yoy. We are in line with consensus on fixed asset growth, expecting FAI to grow 24.9% yoy, down from 25.0% yoy in March.

Bank of England Inflation Report
reflecting the weakness of Q1 GDP data and a 20% rise in Sterling oil prices since the February meeting, projected growth in 2011 is likely to be revised lower and inflation is likely to be revised higher. In the past two years, Governor King has often struck a more dovish tone at the press conference than is reflected in the subsequent MPC Minutes (released one week later).

Poland Central Bank Meeting We are looking for a hike of 25 bps to 4.25%. Consensus expects the base rate to remain unchanged at 4.00%.

United States Trade Balance (Mar)
Consensus is looking for a trade deficit of -$47.0 bn, slightly wider than the -$45.8 bn in March. We look for a wider trade deficit of -$48.0 bn, due to higher nominal imports of petroleum products. The trade report could result in revisions to Q1 GDP.

Mexico Q1 Inflation Report

Thursday May 12th

Indonesia Central Bank Meeting Given softer-than-expected inflation in recent months, we expect Bank Indonesia to pause again in May, following pauses in March and April. This is in line with consensus. We expect the central bank to hike the policy rate by another 50 bps for the remainder of this year, taking the policy rate to 7.25% by end-2011 (from the current level of 6.75%).

South Africa Central Bank Meeting We are in line with consensus and expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 5.50%.

Norway Central Bank Meeting In line with consensus, we expect a 25 bps hike to 2.25%.

United States Initial Claims (May 7) Consensus expects initial claims to come in at 428k, down from the elevated 474k reading the previous week.

United States Retail Sales (Apr) We forecast that retail sales increased by 1.0% mom in April, or 0.7% excluding motor vehicles. Both figures should benefit from the increase in gasoline prices during the month, which raises the nominal value of sales at filing stations. April chain-store sales results were encouraging, but need to be treated with caution due to shifts in the timing of Easter. Consensus sees growth of 0.6% mom for headline retail sales, following growth of 0.4% mom in March. Retail sales excluding autos are expected to grow 0.6% mom, following growth of 0.8% mom in March.

Friday May 13th

Korea Central Bank Meeting We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy rate by 25 bps, with a continued hawkish bias. Consensus also expects a 25 bps hike.

Euro Zone GDP (Q1) We forecast growth of 0.7% qoq, above consensus, which is looking for a reading of 0.6% yoy. Growth in Q4 was 0.3% qoq.

Poland CPI (Apr) We expect inflation to come in at 4.4% yoy in April, below consensus of 4.5% yoy, following a reading of 4.3% yoy in March.

United States CPI (Apr) We expect another unfriendly CPI report this month. Specifically, we forecast that the all-items CPI rose by 0.39% mom in April, essentially in line with consensus (0.4% mom), and that core increased by 0.19% mom, also in line with consensus. Our forecast for a rise in the core (from a gain of 0.14% in March) primarily reflects higher apparel and medical care inflation.

 

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Sun, 05/08/2011 - 15:33 | 1253505 sellstop
sellstop's picture

China/US strategic dialogue.

"If you let your currency appreciate at a faster rate we will let ours go down at a slower rate."

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 16:34 | 1253562 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Key event - Drudge Report will stop propagating the myth that Osama was just killed.

Stop being a tool for the cabal Drudge, post past links to him reported dead back in 2002 - do some research already. I think he's scared the US Dollar will tank further if he shies light on the shame too much.  

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 18:44 | 1253963 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Key event -

Radioactive strontium detected at Fukushima plant

Tokyo Electric Power Company has detected high levels of radioactive strontium in soil inside the compound of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Strontium can cause cancer and like calcium it tends to collect in bones once humans inhale it.

Up to 570 becquerels of strontium 90 per kilogram of dry soil were detected in samples taken from 3 locations. They were taken on April 18, about 500 meters from the Number 1 and 2 reactors, between the surface and about 5 centimeters deep. The level detected is about 130 times higher than the previous high, which was measured in Fukushima Prefecture after nuclear tests in the atmosphere, and before the accident at the nuclear plant.

Tokyo Electric Power Company also said it found 4,400 becquerels of radioactive strontium 89 per kilogram of dry soil taken from the same location.

Earlier in March, strontium was detected in soil and plants outside the 30-kilometer zone around the Fukushima plant.

A director of the Japan Chemical Analysis Center, Yoshihiro Ikeuchi, says humans could inhale strontium when wind stirs up the radioactive substance, but the amounts would be very limited. He says the current levels won't be a health hazard to plant workers wearing face masks, but monitoring of strontium levels in the air is needed.

Monday, May 09, 2011 06:04 +0900 (JST)

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/09_01.html

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 19:17 | 1253972 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Josh, not sure how old you are. In the early seventies, children had to hide under their wooden desk for a atomic bomb drill or head out to the main hallway for tornado drills.

I was always a problem child. Always questioning why we are hiding under a wooden desk or situated in the hallway when the ceiling could collapse without my wooden desk.

My parents would receive calls from the school. Only later in life, my parents told me about their inner laughter from the numerous school principal telephone exchanges.

OBL death is just another attempt to condition the masses. Cannot find the original PR movie we saw, this is a recreation.

The Drill

http://vimeo.com/2112708

Dead can Dance - 1986 (Indoctrination)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7fI2EeDeA0

In times of great vexation
When one must choose between what’s right and wrong
Freedom, so they say,
Amounts to the choices you have made
Through all the arbitrary rationale concerning liberty
Freedom, I must say,
Exists within unconditioned minds

Reason has come of age

How can you be satisfied with things the way they are
When all that surrounds us now and so much more
Remains inside the keeper’s dark embrace?
The insatiable thirst for power has made
Idols out of mortals, gods into clay
Soldiers into heros, children into slaves
All damned
Desires
Their hopes betrayed

Who will suffer the laws
That state can decide your child’s education
Unless you pay the price?

Refrain (x2)
Who will suffer their laws?
Who will suffer their minds?
Who will suffer their words?
Who will suffer their designs?

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 16:01 | 1253569 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

First sign the Treasury is in dire straights is the 0% fixed rate on the I-bonds after a 4.6% CPI rate.  Timmy is doing everything to pinch the dollars he has left, and it ain't many.

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 16:56 | 1253704 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

The great Econ War has begun bitchezzz. America bend over. After all this you would think that CAP Hill and Treasury will fuck do something different , no that is too much to ask from the idiots who are over educated with no common sense.

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 17:12 | 1253746 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

How is that Big Society working for England?

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 17:53 | 1253835 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Yippee!  Higher gas prices = more retail sales!

Blessed recovery, it 'tis.

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 19:09 | 1254012 silberblick
silberblick's picture

The key event will be to take down the comex.

Here's a comment on this and a hilarious animation (as now seen on maxkeiser.com) exhorting folks to get even against the banksters and government:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-...

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 22:32 | 1254434 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

New margin rise for silver tomorrow, 5-9-11:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPKEy3rTA_g&feature=player_embedded

Don't fire (buy) 'til you see the whites of their eyes...

 

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:33 | 1254883 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Key event... debt ceiling will be raised.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!