Key events in the upcoming week, from Goldman Sachs
The week begins with the China – US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (Monday and Tuesday), which will be held in Washington, DC, and will no doubt once again include discussion of the pace of appreciation of CNY against US$. The week also brings a slew of China data, including the trade balance, where consensus expects a small surplus (far below the historical average surplus), and CPI inflation for April, which we see at 5.1% yoy, slightly below consensus. The week ends with the US CPI, where we expect another unfriendly CPI report, with headline CPI rising by 0.39% mom in April, essentially in line with consensus.
Monday May 9th
China – U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (Monday and Tuesday) These meetings will be held in Washington, DC, and will no doubt include discussion of the pace of CNY appreciation against US$.
Taiwan Trade Balance (Apr) According to the latest trends from export orders, we have seen some front-loading of export demand, likely due to the uncertainties over supply chain disruptions in March. April data will allow us to better gauge the extent of this front-loading.
Mexico INPC Inflation (Apr) We expect headline to come in at 3.33% yoy in April, up from 3.04% yoy in March. This is essentially in line with consensus, which is looking for a rise to 3.32% yoy.
Tuesday May 10th
China Trade Balance (Apr) We expect April export growth to moderate to 30.0% yoy, down from 35.8% yoy in March. This is a touch above consensus (29.5% yoy). We expect import growth to rise to 28.0% yoy, up from 27.3% yoy previously. Consensus here expects growth of 28.9% yoy. Consensus expects a trade surplus of $3.2 bn in April, up from $0.1 bn in March. This is still far below the historical average of around $20-25 bn.
Wednesday May 11th
China CPI, IP & FAI (Apr) We expect CPI inflation to fall to 5.1% yoy, down from 5.4% yoy in March. This is below consensus, which is looking for a reading of 5.2% yoy. Our forecast for IP is 15.0% yoy, up from 14.8% yoy in March and above consensus of 14.6% yoy. We are in line with consensus on fixed asset growth, expecting FAI to grow 24.9% yoy, down from 25.0% yoy in March.
Bank of England Inflation Report reflecting the weakness of Q1 GDP data and a 20% rise in Sterling oil prices since the February meeting, projected growth in 2011 is likely to be revised lower and inflation is likely to be revised higher. In the past two years, Governor King has often struck a more dovish tone at the press conference than is reflected in the subsequent MPC Minutes (released one week later).
Poland Central Bank Meeting We are looking for a hike of 25 bps to 4.25%. Consensus expects the base rate to remain unchanged at 4.00%.
United States Trade Balance (Mar) Consensus is looking for a trade deficit of -$47.0 bn, slightly wider than the -$45.8 bn in March. We look for a wider trade deficit of -$48.0 bn, due to higher nominal imports of petroleum products. The trade report could result in revisions to Q1 GDP.
Mexico Q1 Inflation Report
Thursday May 12th
Indonesia Central Bank Meeting Given softer-than-expected inflation in recent months, we expect Bank Indonesia to pause again in May, following pauses in March and April. This is in line with consensus. We expect the central bank to hike the policy rate by another 50 bps for the remainder of this year, taking the policy rate to 7.25% by end-2011 (from the current level of 6.75%).
South Africa Central Bank Meeting We are in line with consensus and expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 5.50%.
Norway Central Bank Meeting In line with consensus, we expect a 25 bps hike to 2.25%.
United States Initial Claims (May 7) Consensus expects initial claims to come in at 428k, down from the elevated 474k reading the previous week.
United States Retail Sales (Apr) We forecast that retail sales increased by 1.0% mom in April, or 0.7% excluding motor vehicles. Both figures should benefit from the increase in gasoline prices during the month, which raises the nominal value of sales at filing stations. April chain-store sales results were encouraging, but need to be treated with caution due to shifts in the timing of Easter. Consensus sees growth of 0.6% mom for headline retail sales, following growth of 0.4% mom in March. Retail sales excluding autos are expected to grow 0.6% mom, following growth of 0.8% mom in March.
Friday May 13th
Korea Central Bank Meeting We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy rate by 25 bps, with a continued hawkish bias. Consensus also expects a 25 bps hike.
Euro Zone GDP (Q1) We forecast growth of 0.7% qoq, above consensus, which is looking for a reading of 0.6% yoy. Growth in Q4 was 0.3% qoq.
Poland CPI (Apr) We expect inflation to come in at 4.4% yoy in April, below consensus of 4.5% yoy, following a reading of 4.3% yoy in March.
United States CPI (Apr) We expect another unfriendly CPI report this month. Specifically, we forecast that the all-items CPI rose by 0.39% mom in April, essentially in line with consensus (0.4% mom), and that core increased by 0.19% mom, also in line with consensus. Our forecast for a rise in the core (from a gain of 0.14% in March) primarily reflects higher apparel and medical care inflation.