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Key Technical Levels Ahead Of FOMC
T-minus 30 minutes and counting. Here are the key technical levels in advance of the most critical FOMC decision in history, from Goldman's John Noyce, focusing on USTs, the EURUSD, USDCHF, JPY crosses, and Gold.
U.S. 10-year yields – Can the market close back below 2.61-2.57%? The most important pivot within this region being the 55-dma which stands at 2.57%. If the market can close back below this area it would make the bounce in yields from the 8th October low look similar to that from the 25th August low to the 13th September high - implying that fixed income has stabilised and that yields can begin to tick lower again. If we close significantly above, particularly above 2.64% (Tuesday’s high) to give a bullish key day in yields terms (price bearish) the concerns about how far away the 200-dma stands (3.17%) would come back into focus. Basically it looks like an extremely important close.
EURUSD – Bias is to buy dips in line with the completed triangle continuation pattern. This gives an upside target of 1.4423.
USDCHF – If there is disappointment, this now looks one of the most stretched USD/G10 pairs. Although the market has bounced over the last few weeks, it has so far held below the 55-dma on a close basis, enabling the market to make 98 consecutive daily closes below the 55-dma. This is the most since 1990. If there was a disappointing outcome today and the USD generally bounces, this cross looks particularly susceptible to an upside correction taking into account how stretched it is by historic standards.
Cross/JPY – In general the JPY is starting to look weak in the crosses (bullish-Cross/JPY). USDJPY levels are difficult, but there are a few notable pivots to watch on the Cross/JPY markets. EURJPY has already broken the downtrend across the highs of the corrective/overlapping down move it made during October. The big pivot looks to now be the downtrend from the August ’08 highs at 114.71. Above there and the story for a 120 move begins to build. The other one to watch is CADJPY. This cross more than any other, bar maybe MXNJPY, seems a pure play on the “outlook for the U.S.”. It’s currently sat just below the converged downtrend from the 30th April highs and the 55-dma; 80.79-80.82. A close above would start to increase confidence a base is in place and leave the next real level as the 17th September highs at 84.11. JPYKRW is also another one we’re watching closely as it appears to be forming an H&S top with a target of 12.5357 and fits with what we believe is a broadly constructive backdrop for KRW.
Gold – The drop over the last few hours has so far held good support centred on 1,331. The uptrend from the 28th July low and the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart being converged there. The same levels acted as support during last Wednesday’s correction. We would get concerned if the market can’t again hold this support on a close basis, as in Elliott terms you can argue that the drop from the 14th October high to the 22nd October low divided into a 5-wave sequence, i.e. an impulsive decline (potential trend turn) rather that a corrective 3-wave/ABC move.
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all right, brought some alcohol to work...
time to celebrate..not
happy naughty Wednesday you all & GL.
A nice flask of Jose Cuervo for you to take a few nips off of, in order to help you with your work and so you can really check out the skirts at your work 20.
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I'm pouring out a glass of bourbon now. I will watch in horror, knowing that regardless of whether he prints or not, nothing will be fixed.
If he prints, the last of the savers economic blood is squeezed out.
If he doesn't, the timeline for raising the debt ceiling will move from Feb/Mar next year to X-mas this year, and since it won't happen that fast, welcome to US debt default.
"the most critical FOMC decision in history," ...as if i wasnt nervous enough! I cant even eat my dinner ffs.
May I suggest that we all sit back and let the fur fly?
I don't see any reason why the old rule of thumb that the first move after a Fed announcement is often (though not always) the wrong move would be any different this time around, regardless of the magnitude of the announcement.
Let's see how the rest of the world, and then the USA, react after a good nights' sleep before we make too many trades. I've balanced my client accounts and will wait a day or two before jumping into the fire pit.
Agree CD,
I've traded Fed Day in the past for a quick kill, but there's no reason to be hasty here... Many times we've seen a head fake only to see the true intentions manifest a day later...
"These are not the droids that you're looking for".
Let's get on with it already!
LOL, great avatar! "Don't vote, it only encourages them!"
No more allowing those who broke and cheated and corrupted the system to offer the solution.
We are exposing a few common myths on PsychoNews this week,
1) Politicians are 'stupid' or 'inept'
2) The US economy is headed for deflation and people worried about hyperinflation are worried for nothing.
3)The Oligarchs are too smart and all-powerful.
Misconceptions: Hyperinflation, & The Oligarchyhttp://psychonews.site90.net
Did anyone tell the HFTs about these levels? They may need to know so they can fake everyone out and run it just far enough to hit stops
I bet those assholes at the FOMC bake the cake with the stripper inside whenever there's a party.
FRN g-string images coming to mind.
I bit all my finger nails off already!
Ahhhhhhh, the buzzzing noise - stop it! .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObWTKUfDBi0
lol, hardcore.
Hope I'm wrong but I smell panic buying soon.
gonna have my finger on the button either way...
Off topic, perhaps, but Barry just completed his speech. He is profoundly depressed, looks like a lost child. Scary.
Let the QE rain down on me!!! I've got my longs in place just waiting for the pump so I can dump.
I am all in cash right now in anticipation of this, but I'm sure somehow my broker will announce bankruptcy so I'll still get screwed anyway.
Waiting, watching, and wishing I was at the Giants World Series parade instead on a beautiful day by the Bay.
Go Fed!!! Do it. whatever it is. Make it count and don't just namby-pamby this.
DO IT! DO IT NOW!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOoOP2l_ahQ
cnbc is now talking about how this is going to boost stock prices.
guaranteed disappoint.
Spx is already getting a pump
my mortgage company tried to pitch me on a 4.5 refi yesterday. told them ZImbabwe Ben would let me get 3.5% in a week
Gotta admit I'm about as nervous as a whore in church.
... as a whore in charlie sheen's closet.
I feel like the preacher who slept with her .
Funny ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM
Anyone know the link where I can watch Bernanke fudge his way out the door of the Federal "as Federal Express" Reserve? I tried to find it on cspan all I got was a bunch of Reblubs that are talking and smiling that they too will have some responsimability for on epic empire collapse coming on the heels of said fudging. Oh you should have seen my friend the other day (a reblubber) when I informed him that Bernanke was appointed by Bush. At first he didn't hear what I said and kept talking about how inept Dems are. "Wait." I said. "Wait. Although an "academic", not a politician, he was appointed by Bush." His response? "Wha....wha....the...huh?" And then I schooled him.
The Partisans: Is Obama A Keynesian? Rally For Sanity:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_23Nt5XumaU&feature=player_embedded
http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/
Bill Gross has a worried look on his face on CNBC
I think silver might be the one to watch on this. It's looking damn twitchy right now.
I bought a bit just after the turn but my big purchase i'm still holding for lower, I'm buying in euros.
Volatility in the ES. A battle going on.
um, why is the market shooting up at 2:21pm? did i miss an announcement?
[edit]
/litella/ "nevermind"....
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