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Kicking The Can Down The Road
By Nic Lenoir Of ICAP
Well it seems that at last Europe is embracing currency debasement, unless the parliament decides on a final insult to injury and turn down the package proposed by the ECB/IMF French dynamic duo Trichet/DSK. The choice was slim with contagion raging.
No help means an inevitable downgrade by Fitch of Greece (at 20% 2Y borrowing rates like we saw this morning refinancing is impossible, there is no way out) which in turn renders Greek bonds inelligible for repo at the ECB facility. Who are the holder of Greek bonds? European banks of course, especially French ones. Then obviously the same happens for Portugal, Spain, and the entire banking system in Europe collapses.
Reality finally hit in Europe despite Mr. Almunia's claims that there are no default in the Eurozone that you are as solvent as you can roll your debt. The ECB and the IMF will therefore put their balance sheets on the hook to get Greece out of this impass. Of course one needs to look past Greece as the other Southern countries are going to require the same kind of help, and if they dont do it by themselves the market will probably do it for them in due time. The path is slippery because there is never a good time to default. With austerity required very unlikely to be attained no doubt that these countries will be back for more and then some, and could at some point force the countries helping them into a tough spot. France is not short of unaccounted for social entitlement programs, and Germany can't seriously bail out everybody. It might be worth starting to look at the debt/GDP ratio for the entire eurozone if we go that route as it will dictate, if this plan works, when nervousness will return down the road (where the can was kicked after so much drama).
We have been convinced core shorts of EURUSD since 1.51 and 1.4870 and we think this trend is far from having run its course. Another trend may well be in the process of acceleration: Gold's! We had our initial buy recommendation in the 1,080/1,090 zone and ever since 1,135 we got confirmation the move could have a lot more legs. We retested that support recently and we think the environment is now ripe for further acceleration, barring Congress banning completely commodities speculation via OTC products and ETFs. This caveat is important as it is an agenda being seriously pushed forward and an exogenous shock that the bull market in Gold could not digest. But without this ultimate governmental manipulation scheme, with the Fed reiterating its "extended" accomodative policy and the ECB throwing the fiscal responsibility towel, there is nothing to stop a run up in Gold. The fact Gold actually appreciated along with the USD index during this latest Greek panic if it indicates a change in correlations is very telling.
The financial reform bill has the potential to be disastrous because if the agenda to eliminate private speculation in commodity markets prevails, then liquidation will be violent given the recent flows of money towards these markets. Maybe it is the government's final answer to deficit worries: if you force people out of commodities, they will have to support equities and bonds, and given the risks to growth and earnings priced in by equity markets, it means the US Treasury no longer has to worry about demand at auctions or a weak currency generating commodity inflation. It would be the final insult and nail in the coffin for what is left of our capitalist system. It was brought to my attention that national security concerns have been supporting this agenda, and that is a point well worth keeping in mind. It would certainly buy the US 10 more years of additional time to reach energy independence. Be very cautious though, bank stocks would take a strong hit, and so would energy companies.
Bunds have it a strong resistance and while we expect some consolidation around these levels we feel a great shorting opportunity is presenting itself if it is indeed confirmed that Germany is giving up its balance sheet. Our initial target on the upside was 124.85, but in the panic the market made an excess yesterday. Ideally we get a retest of 125.20 to enter short positions thoug a final resolution must be fully approved at this stage for the market to really factor balance sheet dilution given the political roller-coaster it has been.
US Treasuries are probably still stuck in that 114-119 range and don't really present the same opportunity here. The curve is likely to steepen given the Fed announcement and yield expectations in the long, but with the Treasury announcing much better than expected tax receipts supply could be reduced and will keep a bid that is more likely to take to the top than the bottom of the range for now.
We see additional downside potential for the S&P future and a test of 1,167/1,1770 as long as the market does not bypass 1,195.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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Timmy better quick dump another 100 bil to the IMF. When TARP II goes international like this and you're already a hundred bil in the hole......might as well go all in.
If you cannot buy gold etf's, you'll have to buy physical, ending the charade of the gold etf's. Gold will actually go up!
Silver too.
Who in the government is actually pushing that ETF trading ban?
No one. Read the article again: the reference was part of a hypothetical statement.
The first mention was, but the second part didn't seem very hypothetical to me (bold mine):
Ok, so if the scenario is that the EU goes down the same road as the US and pumps cash into the system to prevent things from collapsing, what will that mean for the future of Greek banks? At around $3 a share, NBG might be worth a punt.
Roubini was never idolized around here, more like vilified once ZH readers became aware of the Summers connection.
Roubini changed his tone with the change in administration. Roubini is borderline political hack, not Krugman level, but then again who is?
I like you, Harry... you warm my cockels.
Not that I agree with you, though.
If you're going to cite something can you make sure it is somewhat accurate?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35792768
I just watched the interview after he finished at the Milken Conference. The one you show is from six weeks ago. So, yes, my remarks regarding Roubini were "somewhat accurate".
I agree that Harry is the most consistent and likable troll to post here in quite some time. Consistent, like a rash, or syphilis. Nevertheless, consistent.
Thank you, Harry Wanger, for gracing us with you distinctively pro-equities view points. Different view points do make a 360 perspective.
Oh, by the way. Can you get my kid an appointment with the FRBNY, that he might avoid the draft? National security regarding commodities trading, et cetera, harrumph! Please?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-post-gains-in-early-trading-2...)
Reply Link Track Replies Report Abusebmdaily 42 days ago +9 Votes (11 Up / 2 Dn).
Harry Wanger has five different accounts on Marketwatch (see MW Admin and ip addresses) and three of the accounts are active right now.
Harry, those who "manage money and build portrfolios" for other people are not trolling in chat rooms. You are in your mom's basement having way too much fun with all of this:)!! Request sent
And here we have "The Professor" exposed!
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/AAPL-apple-gm-psycho...
I hope your "studies" in "permabear psychology" are enlightening, you cynical and amoral son of a bitch!
Harumph
the US is the Nr.1 reason for most of the economic problems the world is facing right now. The EU is just a schizophrenic remake of the US.
ROFL
We use a British Imperialist monetary system.
Which of course came over from Venetian Banking.
Sorry, the U.S. joined in Europe's sin in 1913. Prior to that America was still the best of European culture, without the morass that is monarchies. That's what America was, but then we joined you.
Might want to get that point straight before pointing fingers. But don't worry, when Europe goes down, it will sink the U.S., and with that down, so goes Asia. No one will escape what's coming, we just don't know the actual end date, and how far 'psychology' can take us.
The Euro is the conception of Britain to control Europe as easily as they controlled America after the federal reserve was created. Whoops. You know it's sad but true.
you are right, i was sleepy....
Before responding to "HarryWanger", please be aware of just whom you are dealing with:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/AAPL-apple-gm-psycho...
This bastard is posing as a troll for the most cynical and dishonest of reasons, and deserves NO response from anyone here, not even in contempt! Please shun Mr. Kostorhyz as the amoral SOB that he is!
Very interesting. I was long until june of 08. Been long since mid 2003 . Bearish now for good reason imho. Its not a perma state for me
People, write down the date: April.29th.2010.It´s history now.
THE BAILOUT-ZONE was born.
Can you link to specific texts or congressmen who are trying to ban commodities speculation? Anything would be helpful... it should be a major story if so...
I was thinking the exact same thing --- I have not read of ANY such suggestions from any member of congress (yet), and would find such proposals deeping disturbing and outrageous.
It's Blanche Lincoln's bill out of the Agriculture Committee.
The actual bill is available online, as well as a lot of discussion of it. It in no way bans private commodities speculation, and it doesn't set position limits itself, although it would empower the CFTC to set position limits, and it would require current OTC commodities contracts to be traded in a public clearinghouse or exchange, or if that is not practical, to be reported.
It looks like it's targeted at energy futures--a lot of the organizations supporting the bill represent energy users, including the trucking industry, airline industry, home heating oil biz, etc. I'd say they want to make it a lot more difficult for Goldman to buy up millions of barrels of oil and products and store it on tankers without reporting its inventory to the market.
Honestly, I think the threat of this bill has already stopped a planned crude oil ramp-up.
Roubini Says Rising Sovereign Debt Leads to Inflation, Defaults
By Vivien Lou Chen
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the U.S. recession more than a year before its start in December 2007, said rising sovereign debt from the U.S. to Japan and Greece will ultimately lead to higher inflation or government defaults.
“While today markets are worried about Greece, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg,” Roubini, 52, said today during a discussion on financial markets at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. Increasing tax revenue won’t be enough “to save the day.”
“The thing I worry about is the buildup of sovereign debt,” Roubini, who teaches at NYU’s Stern School of Business, told attendees at the Beverly Hilton hotel. If the issue isn’t addressed, nations will either fail to meet obligations or experience higher inflation as officials “monetize” their debts, or print money to tackle the shortfalls."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asfbGoJfLN7s
You should watch the post conference interview. That is where he states that the US is affectively a safe haven now and that there will be no double dip here. He is correct about Europe and he is correct when he says its impact on US markets will be minimal.
Yes, but what an affect!
It's funny how, in the long run, you think we (U.S.) can escape this... Debt destruction will take place. It begins in Europe but will eventually find its way across the pond. While we bide our time waiting, the Wizards will try every which way to take more and more money out of our system to make interest payments..all the while throwing a wet blanket on growth. (what little there is) And just when we are weary enough from the yoke of taxation, our moment will arrive. It's called destiny Johnny Bravo, there is no escape from it.
If you really think we live in "Financial Fortress USA", and the current events in Europe can and will have no effect on us here, there is a historical analogue to this situation that I suggest you research: KreditAnstaldt.
Harry I disagree. The european debt situation dosent play out in a bubble (perhaps "bubble" isnt the best terminology!). The effects are already upon us, due to the interlinkage of the worlds capital structure and God knows (or Loyd) how many trillions in leveraged derivitave bets riding on the percieved effects.
The effects themselves become leveraged.
The Euro tanking made the dollar look not quite so worthless, which is another wrench thrown into Bernakes carefully scripted plan to have his cake and eat it too.
He has to keep confidence in the markets, contain inflation, keep PMs from attracting too many investors away from his IOUs and his beloved zombie bank stocks. He is literally herding a dozen cats at once. One of them escaping could set off a chain reaction. Sure hes gonna say "The European crisis is largely contained" Because one errant word from his mouth, that is truthful, would mean double dip or worse.
That said, the FEDs manipulation powers and printing press have thus far created a fine fake recovery and these are unparalled times in the power of fiat currency. The markets could very well grind on up with a little sideways action and corrections and comebacks thrown in that could go on for years.
The current path isnt sustainable,imo,but you cant trade the market you wish for,just the one you have. I am a shameless herd follower, "Risk ON!!" I buy, Risk Off!!", I sell.
A permabear would be an extinct species and the permabulls are charging on bowrowed time. The double dip could be upon us now or years later, but a permabull would go broke thinking Bernake will save his portfolio forever.
I actually do think a commodities trading ban will be attempted at some point-next time oil goes above $100. Fun and games.
I agree with this. They would either use this or require an increase in the ethanol percentage of gasoline.
Actually, I think even the threat of position limits has already slowed down a planned oil ramp-up.
So Harry, do we have you on record stating that if the EU collapses due to debt constraints and does double dip later this year, that this would actually be net positive for the US economy and equity/bond markets?
Absolutely! US and Asia will benefit significantly. The flow into US and Asian bonds and equities will be staggering. It's not that difficult to comprehend. Pretty simple economics actually.
.....bottle rocket for the US equity markets on a much higher dollar ??
BB will be happy to get that news.
And then what?
Ha! Good one Harry, so as long as theres a flight to US assets a recession/depression cant happen??
"Double dip" doesnt refer to USD & bond values.
In general:
High rolling US investors, the top 5% and the only ones spending and investing big, will make money by shorting Europe with CDS and shorting, and then turn around and do the same thing to the US when their done with Europe.
The economy is not good on either continent for the mass of people. The US stock market does not reflect this fact yet. The liquididty push is primarily being used by the 5% (mostly bond holders,banks,hedge funds etc...) who are turning on Europe and they will turn on the US. Its about greed, and making money no matter what.
The US stock market is an illusion; If it wasn't stocks would be priced according to their capability to pay a dividend on "real" accounting earnings from sales of "real" products. However the 5% can only buy so many real products, but they can still buy plenty of leveraged "unreal" products that help accel the economic demise of Europe and the US.
Most people simply are not spending as much as they used to in a robust economy because they are more poor now than they were ten years ago.
The "Junkers":
Once again...many thanks to ZH. Since I started reading this site and doing the exact opposite of everyone here I have made enough to retire. Now I am living a life of luxury in South America.
Although I would appreciate it if some of the writers here would be a little less verbose and keep to a maximum of 50 acronyms per missive.
When the Dow hits 15,000 I expect a commemorative special issue.
Muchas Gracias a todas
Armando "Buy the Dip" Javier Finklestein of the Boise Finkelsteins
Since I started reading this site and doing the exact opposite of everyone here....
Now that's funny! You must be one schizophrenic son of a bitch!
If that person can manage pulling off MsCreant, CD, MN Nice, Lizzy36, Leo, Chumbawamba, merehuman, waterwings, Chindit13 & Gordon at the same time, more power to 'em. hahahaha
De nada. Quitter.
Quitter?
Sorry Mr. Kendig I was referring to Armando and his horn tooting expatriation. I hope you are well.
Just making sure I'm not driftin'. Good to see you this active again cotton. peace
Pardon me.
What exactly am I doing,again?
Is Armando one of Harry's ali-asses?
Plus, I haven't seen a whole lot of investment advice on this website since I've been browsing it.
So, I can't really see how your ZH contrarian investment perspective has made you more than a few Mexican Pesos.
What an asshole.
Yet you only signed up for an account a month ago.
Troll.
I fail to see how that has anything to do with how long he's been "browsing" this website. Look at my profile then tell me how long I've been reading this site.
I'll be counterparty to any bet you like that you get it wrong.
I believe Lenoir writes from London. Is this true?
Anyone?
Monetary base expansion + balance sheet expansion = 1/Standard of Living
1/Standard of Living^2 = Geopolitical risk
Is there any downside for Germany if they simply choose not to re-commit to the newer, bigger, EU bailout plan?
Would the EU kick them out of the EU? Would the EU ban them from accessing credit markets? Would France, Italy, Greece call the Germans names?
Germany would be crazy to bail these clowns out. Nature will take it's course on the Euro and the EU. Germany needs to think about their position in the post EU world. Loading up their balance sheet on PIIGS promises will not put them in good stead.
The world is looking for value. A sound German Mark would attract a lot of interest and could become a world currency.
Pyrrhic victory at best. Germany will have the best currency in a bankrupt Europe.
Usually i fully agree with you, but the best currency in Europe is and will forever be NOK. Second place is shared by the currencies which are not pegged to the EUR but operate on current monetary needs of the country which issues its own fully independent currency. After that come EUR pegged currencies. Also top spot is shared by all currencies issued by countries which are not in the EU and do not haven an EUR peg. Germany will not be spared the doubt once it returns to the DEM simply because it was on of the founding stones of the bureaucratic, economic and monetary behemoth/monster which is the EU/EMU. After couple of years DEM will once again be strong once the doubting period passes. The same thing happened with smaller currencies in the Balkans in the post-Yugoslavia, post-Dinar era. HRK is one of the most stable and strongest currencies you can find around simply because CCB has put restrains on bankers and puts them in jail when those same bankers make even slightly fraudulent loans or deals. The only problem is that the strong currency policy is killing the exports and investments into the country, but im ok with that, as long as we dont indulge ourself in manic spending and over-borrowing like the vast majority of the world economies and individuals. Oh and the taxation is pretty high here but thats ok, healthcare, college and other services are free of cost very very little even when compared to CRO living standard. Utilities are dirt cheap and more reliable than in most EU countries and infrastructural network is above par with comparing it to the rest of the EUR. People looked me with WTF glowing in their eyes when i said im moving to CRO permanently. Now they want to come, but tough shit; immigration policy is more strict than in KSA and there is virtually no political asylum (only 1 granted since 1991 and it was to a Sudanese teenage widow). So yeah, in the longterm i see slight annoyances bugging this country but no shitstorms or catastrophes like i see for the rest of EU/EMU in the very near future.
Unfortunately Cheeky, the EURO allowed the periphery countries of the EU to purchase goods and services on equal footing to those of the core.
Should Germany abandon the EURO rather than do what the US did and print money and monetize the debt, Germany will get fiscally back on its feet eventually but it will find that the revenues of its companies (and thus its tax base) will have taken a massive and permanent hit because its customers in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy can't afford to buy German products anymore.
Newbie here..so parity and accounting tricks are the kernel of the Euro ’Greek fire’ ? Now we have compounding problems due to excessive leverage of debt vs. GDP? Debit is spread to other countries etc...what a mess (sounds ALOT like California).
There are some notable differences. Covered bonds in Greece, just downgraded and capital flight to name two. In fact anywhere from 4-10% of domestic deposits have left the country over the past six months making the whole of the banking sector precarious and nullifying any sort of potential that capital controls could help stabilize matters. More true than ever with Greek banks holding so much of their nations sovereign debt. I am sure that the information, or lack of it on capital flows throughout the EU & EMU will be worth noting over these next weeks and months.
Fact remains many of the customers in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy can't afford to buy those goods as it is.
Interesting CB. CRO is in a relatively strong spot economically, we'll see how the geography ends up working out.
Off topic:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/culturemonster/2010/04/huntington-librar...
Congrats on the win over the Netherlands.
Deutschmarks or Reichmarks.....whatever they decide to call it, gotta' be better than this mess .
I propose they call it Markymarks.
+1
How about skid marks?
Mark to Marks?
Exactly what would the socialists in the EU do without Germany.
Just like in Belgium, the northern half of the country known as Dutch speaking Flanders wanted to succeed from the southern French speaking Wallonians.
Can anyone guess why?
Could it be that they speak French, or is it because they're a bunch of lazy, welfare dependent Greek-like parasites.
So, I ask again, exactly what would the socialist EU wealth re-distributors in Brussels do without Germany?
Based on the extensive coverage on ZH, it doesn't look as if the PIIGS can pick up the slack.
Anybody know where I can buy some drachmas?
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.10/sucker.html
james speaks...
Never cared for Kunstler, Obama was going to save us, racist if you oppose him ("Obama's racial make-up has inspired a revival of the Ku Klux spirit around the Nascar ovals"), etc. He's just a Democrat who has discovered Peak Oil but refuses to let go of all the rest of the mindset. The type who mocks Nascar, rednecks, trailer trash, etc., when those are the type of blue collar (or welfare state) whites who voted for his Messiah.
some wakeup. what wakeup? they are all asleep. more chicken and judge mathis!
Agree with your points about Kunstler. He certainly has a penchant for over-ridgedly stereotyping. I really enjoy his dark sense of humor and writing style though.
The last chapter in "The Long Emergency" should be required reading of any "politician".
So once again, as everyone over here focuses on Greece, Brazil is taking positive steps to cooling its hyper-growth by hiking rates. This is great news and shows foresight on the part of Brazil after seeing inflation starting to rise.
It is also great news for the US, as the futures are indicating. I think a lot of people here are going to be surprised at how positive a reaction to a rate change in the US will be. When it happens, it will be seen as a sign of economic stability the same way Canada, Australia and Brazil and lift the markets on stronger confidence in the recovery.
Before responding to the virtually omnipresent poster "Harry Wanger", please be aware of just whom and what you are dealing with in this person:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/AAPL-apple-gm-psycho...
His real name is James Kostorhyz, and he is here posing as a troll in dishonesty and in disregard for the fundamental purposes of this forum. He is NOT posting here in good faith, but is purposely antagonizing those with independent, anti-establishment views and opinions for his own selfish and cynical purposes, as part of a study on "the psychology of permabears".
Please do NOT respond to this reprehensible troll, here or anywhere else on ZeroHedge. He is NOT here in good faith, and should be shunned!
From this point on, I shall identify him as:
Jimmy the Troll.
It may also interest you to know that based on his own writings, one of them linked in my post above, he believes that anyone who opposes the current widespread fraud, corruption and rampant lies within our societies and governments are "utopian" and unrealistic, pollyannish dreamers.
And for those ZeroHedgers who are advocates of sound money backed by gold, this bankster shill is already out there with one of the most disingenuous, dishonest pieces of pro-establishment propaganda on the topic, expounding on how such financial integrity is "impossible", and merely "the rants of an ideological fringe":
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Gold-Standard-Solid-as-minyanville-285...
It's somewhat funny to watch you rant on every thread on this site. There are a million "traders" just like you during every bubble run. There are very few of you left after the bubble finally goes pop!
The best part is 99.9% of you are convinced you are smarter than everyone else in the room and can time exactly when to get out with a profit. All economic data and sentiment was as rosy as possible before the tech bubble made a lot of former millionaires.
I don't know if it will be in a day, week, month, year or decade. Eventually poor economic choices have to be paid for in one form or another. Over a long enough sample size, everyone/everything tends to revert to their EV.
I finally exhausted my last gem from winter 09 two weeks ago. Every single one has gone parabolic and have turned into virtual casinos. There is no value left in this market, except for a few miners. All that is left to do is day trade roulette.
Couldn't have said it better myself. I heard the same trite, cliched phrases from commercial RE traders/investors in '07. It was a heady time back then. The future seemed so bright. Aggressive, cocksure traders 'margined to hilt' long and braggadocious as ever. And then, bam! The bubble was pricked and the rest was history.
Most of these 'investors' must have taken it in the teeth, convinced that this was a minor setback until it was too late, of course.
It is naive to compare current equity prices with bubbles in commercial RE or dot com days. We're trading at just over 14 time S&P. Historically, that's cheap. That was not the case in the bubbles you refer to.
Psychologically, since we over-corrected to the downside, people tend to think that we must now be in a bubble. But there is no bubble to prick. We're merely at attractive p/e's right now. It only seems expensive due to the low level we came from.
Dude, do you buy your magic mushrooms, or harvest them yourself?
That's some potent shit, man!
Dude, the market is up like 80%, almost uninterrupted, and the whole rest of the world agrees with you -- equities are going to just keep on going up. But aside from running with the gaggle, what does trading 14x S&P mean?
I know you're not referring to inflation adjusted PE ratios, cause if you are, you're wrong:
http://www.multpl.com/
Another poster here has claimed this clown is just a troll, posting the same kind of absurdly bullish BS in various online forums as part of a supposed study in "permabear psychology".
Whether that is true or not, he is patently an antagonistic troll, and does not deserve any reasoned replies. I have given up taking him seriously, as clearly he is not posting here in good faith.
ditto
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reprint Policy
As of last week, our most comprehensive measure of market valuation reached a price-to-normalized earnings multiple of 19.1, exceeding the peaks of August 1987 (18.6) and December 1973 (18.3). Outside of the valuations achieved during the late 1990's bubble and the approach to the 2007 market peak, the only other historical observation exceeding the current level of valuation was the extreme of 20.1 reached just prior to the 1929 crash. The corollary to this level of rich valuation is that our projection for 10-year total returns for the S&P 500 is now just 5.3% annually
As for the fixation on Greece, its more like a 'hey lets be careful out there' moment.
Harry, just today, a nice safe company like AFLAC, that was featured in host of articles on recession proof companies, just let it out of the bag that they hold 1 billion in Greek debt and .75 billion in Portuguese debt. Their stock took a huge hit today. If the EU doesn't get its act together soon, AFLAC won't be the only company coming out with little revelations about their exposure to that mess.
And that's one of the huge themes on this site - that the financial statements of many companies are at best fiction, at worst criminal.
And yes, when the Fed raises rates come 2011, we'll all breathe a sigh of relief. But till then alot of things can still go boom.
Ouch.
Nicely articulated
AFLUCK!
Raising rates will send gold down, or up, in USD terms? Inflation hedge vs. non-competitive/non existent yield? We shall see.
USA monetary base = $2200 billion ; SUPPOSED USA gold supply = 8300 tons == $8283/oz http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
Isnt the bulk of OTC gold and silver trading done on the LBMA? and would thus be unaffected by US financial reform. If they curb futures and ETF there would be massive liquidation but the backlash would be severe especially from ETF land.
The leveraged illussion continues. A bet on a bet that the bet will work. If Atlas had a steel pole to use for leverage that was equal to the leverage used in the market, the world could be tipped over with one finger, and it probably will.
None of this is real. There are no real shoulders and legs (good jobs that help make and sell products) to do the work necessary to balance this sheit once it tips. The balance sheet of companies are full of deception. The companies will do anything to make them look good to keep the illusion going. The mass of people simply are not doing that well financially. The "elite" are to far away to see the plight of the working women and men.
The Fed promotes the illusion by keeping rates low. Investors feign confidence and act as if the leveraged illusion can continue. However, more and more really understand that levergaged illussions become nightmares.
It seems obvious that if commodity speculation via structured products were curtailed, the dollar price of physical bullion would SOAR.
they gotta be committed to pot to be pot committed in this mess
Unlike Harry, Iam not so sure on stocks, Apple, or other antidisintermediative investments. However, I can whole-heartedly recommend the following:
1 oz Maker's Mark
1 oz Cointreau
1 oz lemon juice
2 dashes angostura bitters
Shake w/ ice and strain into an Irish crystal deep Champagne saucer.
(x2 at least)
cue up Red Hot Chili Peppers greatest hits, turn the volume to 11, and
Cheers, bitches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can't imagine the german govt agreeing to a greek bailout after the latest developments. So are they going to agree to bail out portugal and spain too. The german citizenry will rip them to shreds.
Not if voting on the IMF/EU bailout plan is done after the May 9 election.
Of course, the Germans could revolt-- but that would be disorderly. Can't have too much of that, now.
Tyler it sounds like even you think this is better than default?
I don't get it why is deafualt so bad
sure the banks will get hit but if they want the present system to continue thay have to let some of the debt clear otherwise its a guaranteed collpase of the system
default it whats needed. surew it will hurt but it will hurt a whole lot more when the entire thing collpases
Woops