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The King's Speech: Will It Mark The Top in Stocks?
Next week is bound to be a doozy. The SPY and NYA are sitting just under their highs, and The Bernank is scheduled to give his post-FOMC "King's Speech" on April 27. What are the odds that the market is going to have a significant correction going into this speech? At the same time, thousands of hedge fund managers who stepped aside during the recent correction will be forced to get back in to stocks if they take out new highs. After all, the desperation is reaching March Madness levels to "make your year" so they can temporarily "retire" at The Hamptons for the summer.
Odds are high that we could have a buying frenzy into the FOMC, and perhaps the day after we could mark a top with a short-covering buying orgy. Because if there is any adverse intraday market action during the FOMC announcement, Ben typically pulls his levers the following day to goose the ES futures in his typical "in your face" fashion.
You can imagine the hoopla surrounding this "speech", or press conference, whatever you want to call it. I wonder if Cramer will be moderating?
Ags Nightmare over at Wall St. Examiner has an excellent piece on this idea.
Absolutely hilarious!
http://takemystockplease.com/?p=1200
Why is Ben Bernanke "The King"?
Because he has singlehandedly pulled off one of the greatest bull rallies of all time, during a time when the economic fundamentals have been absolutely horrid, and the world is getting hit by one disaster after another.
Seems like every day, we hear from the "experts" about how the market is overbought, it has gone up too many weeks and months in a row, and a massive bear market implosion is right around the corner.
Even the technical traders like Tom O'Brien over at TFNN.com have been calling tops virtually every day for the last 6 months, making up a myriad number of excuses as to why the market is going to crack the very next day, commodities are going to crash, and the U.S. Dollar is about to embark on a vicious rally.
Poor Tom seems to be so convinced, he is starting to believe that he can force the market into submission by sheer force of will. The last couple of weeks, he sounds like he has chugged a 40 oz. can of Red Bull before he does his broadcast. He's getting more hysterical as the market grinds higher and higher.
You can hear his latest rant on Friday here:
http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TOS040111.mp3
I seem to be more and more convinced that we must be entering some type of blowoff phase, as I look at several charts which, quite simply, are eye-popping.
There must be thousands of fund managers who look at these charts, kicking themselves, wondering how they could have missed out on one of the most astounding stock market rallies of all time.
And none of it would have been possible without the expert engineering by The Bernank, who also must be looking at the same charts, and high fiving with the rest of the staff at the Fed.
And no doubt, every other central banker on the planet must also be looking at the same charts, knowing that in the event that there is a financial convulsion somewhere, they will copy Ben Bernanke's move, and try to pull off the same feat.
Right now, according to the official statistics, which are constantly regurgitated by Bob Brinker on his radio show, the inflation rate according to the TIPS spread is a paltry 2.9%.
And until this "official" inflation rate passes 6%, people are going to continue to heap praise upon "The King", even if gasoline is $7/gallon by the end of the year.
After all, who cares if your monthly gasoline bill doubles, if your stock portfolio full of mo-mo stocks has gone up 300% - 600% in two years?
And on top of that, the stocks that have gone up the fastest have been travel, leisure, mattresses, rental car companies, internet stocks, etc.
Who says the same bubbles cannot be blown up over and over again?
Once again, The Bernank has done the impossible. Blow up bubbles in the exact same sectors that caused all the previous market crashes.
Any wonder why he is "The King"???
Of course, this would have been impossible without the FemBots cracking the whip at all the 19-year old crack pipe traders at the big funds, trained to follow momentum and nothing else.
When will this run stop? Nobody knows. Just have to wait for the market to run out of gas and reverse. Maybe Monday? Maybe in three weeks? Who knows?
There is no single adjective that can describe the size and scope of these runs....
"Stunning"
"Extraordinary"
"Eye-Popping"
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It is a sight to behold. 1982 redux
You think Ben's popularity will propel him to kingship because he can monetize the indices to new heights? You think $7 gasoline won't matter? You spend too much time staring at tits.
When he's done, Benny and the Inkjets will be as popular and as highly regarded as Gideon Gono.
Zimbabwe's stock market was the envy of the world. So to speak.
The three most important things about the market are: PERCEPTION, PERCEPTION, PERCEPTION.
Not really. It is the quantity and quality of money and credit that drives the stock market. It doesn't matter what you perceive. It doesn't even matter how good earnings are.
love that super sexy money! hot gals are fun too. great post.
http://covert2.wordpress.com
The height of insanity in Rome due to lead in the water. What's it going to look like when plutonium is in everyone's water
' . . . And until this "official" inflation rate passes 6%, people are going to continue to heap praise upon "The King", even if gasoline is $7/gallon by the end of the year.
After all, who cares if your monthly gasoline bill doubles, if your stock portfolio full of mo-mo stocks has gone up 300% - 600% in two years?'
Robo, many people don't have stock portfolios. Many others are very small. These people will care about $7/gallon gas because they didn't get the 600% vig. And there are lots of them.
Unfortunately they don't count because they are not part of the top 1%, or 10% for that matter.
Tractor Supply Company is giving out a free pair of chaps with every tractor ...
Hell, I just saw their last weekend flyer. Grass seed, fertilizer and dog food are cheap as hell there compared to home depot and lowes. I'd go there too.
I guess you can't get dog food at lowes or hd, but you know what I mean
Your local feed store, like Blue Seal, or local (large) Farm Co-op will usually beat Tractor Suppy by a good margin. (Better quality feed and seeds, too)
I don't understand how they can turn a profit or how they are going to recoup the investment in the infastructure (stores/inventory). I doubt very much they will stand the test of time
Tractor Supply Company is giving out a free pair of chaps with every tractor ... and a yolk with every loan.
Why is Ben Bernanke "The King"? Come on Robo a fricken monkey with a note could have pulled off the same thing Bernanke has done. Any child could have done the same...When all you do is print money and run a ponzi scheme with it, how can you pretend this was some kind of miracle. What we are left with is an economy that is 35 TRILLION dollars deeper in the soup then we were before he started his crusade. We have a housing market that is worse then it was before he started and unemployment is worse as well. All this man has done is steal money from the middleclass and hand it over to the CRONIES... He has tanked the dollar, caused the rest of the globe to lose faith in the American monetary system and destroyed the middleclass just to make a few richer on Wall St. I was talking with a guy yesterday and he said the recovery was happening as well...He said look at the markets? I asked him how much money he had made? The market is up 95% but he had made about 38%. Using round numbers we said if he had $100k invested he now had $138k, right. Then we looked at how much more he had to spend on gas and food over the past 2 years? We figured about $5k so his net gain is now $133k, you following me? Then we did a zillow on his property from 2 years ago and compared it to todays price. In the last 2 years he lost 18% of a home valued at $335k in 2009. So we subtracted the $60k depreciation from from the remaining $+ 133k invested and came up with $73,000. So now he realized that even thogh he made $38,000 on his $100k investment he actually lost $27,000 in net worth... So you can continue to believe the market means everything but if you look at the whole picture, things continue to get much worse... The man was a bit upset to say the least once he realized he was still actually losing even though the MSM and Wall St. was trying to convince him otherwise...
A fricken monkey wouldn't have thought to do it. As evil and twisted as it is you have to admire the sheer audacity of what he did. He had to get all the trading banks and algos to go along with it. One of the best arguments against conspiracy theories is how difficult to get a group of people to agree to and a follow a plan. Usually it's like herding cats, but he did it. It will all end badly, but it was quite a feat. If you also credit him with the rise in commodities then he also gets into the record books for killing more people through food cost starvation than the tsunami and mena unrest combined.
robo, you are a nut ball. i like your taste in woman, though. makes up for the "king".
yumnuts†
Here's a nice trading stock for you Robo, up 6% on Thursday, down 8% Friday:
And here are 46 favorites of a few top hedge funds:
Company
Ticker
Return
Managers
SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC
SD
69.1%
Pickens
N X P SEMICONDUCTORS
NXPI
49.9%
Loeb
MICRON TECHNOLOGY
MU
44.4%
Tepper
JDS UNIPHASE
JDSU
37.2%
Soros
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY
CHK
32.8%
Pickens
EOG RESOURCES INC
EOG
30.6%
Pickens
NOBLE CORP BAAR
NE
29.4%
Pickens
LAWSON
LWSN
29.3%
Soros
MASSEY ENERGY CO
MEE
27.8%
Loeb
WILLIAMS COS
WMB
27.7%
Loeb
N C R CORP NEW
NCR
23.0%
Einhorn
HEALTH NET INC
HNT
20.3%
Loeb
PFIZER INC
PFE
17.4%
Einhorn, Tepper
SUNCOR ENERGY INC
SU
16.8%
Pickens
LYONDELLBASELL
LYB
15.3%
Loeb
POTASH CORP
POT
12.8%
Loeb
CAREFUSION CORP
CFN
10.9%
Einhorn
Q E P RESOURCES INC
QEP
10.5%
Pickens
PLAINS EXPLORATION & PROD
PXP
10.3%
Soros, Pickens
E N S C O PLC
ESV
10.2%
Einhorn
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO
IP
9.9%
Tepper
EPICOR
EPIC
9.0%
Soros
CARDINAL HEALTH INC
CAH
9.0%
Einhorn
APPLE INC
AAPL
8.1%
Einhorn
SPRINT NEXTEL CORP
S
7.8%
Einhorn
INTEROIL CORP
IOC
3.6%
Soros
WELLS FARGO & CO NEW
WFC
3.1%
Tepper
LIBERTY MEDIA CORP NEW
LINTA
2.6%
Loeb
MONSANTO CO NEW
MON
2.1%
Soros
MCMORAN EXPLORATION CO
MMR
2.0%
Pickens
B P PLC
BP
1.9%
Pickens
DENDREON CORP
DNDN
1.8%
Soros
ALCON INC
ACL
1.4%
Loeb
BANK OF AMERICA CORP
BAC
0.9%
Tepper
SPDR GOLD TRUST
GLD
0.0%
Soros
HEWLETT PACKARD CO
HPQ
-1.7%
Tepper
WEATHERFORD INTL LTD NEW
WFT
-2.9%
Pickens
GOLD MINERS ETF
GDX
-3.0%
Einhorn
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
FITB
-5.5%
Tepper
CITIGROUP INC
C
-5.9%
Tepper
P H H CORP
PHH
-6.1%
Loeb
MERCK
MRK
-6.5%
Tepper
MICROSOFT CORP
MSFT
-7.7%
Einhorn, Tepper
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC
NG
-10.0%
Soros
C I T GROUP INC NEW
CIT
-10.4%
Einhorn, Loeb
DELTA AIR LINES INC
DAL
-21.1%
Soros
I look at the quarterly holdings of many top hedge funds and mutual funds to get ideas of where the top funds are betting (or manipulating). As long as the Bernank's music keeps playing...
All hail the bi-winning economy! This bull rally has the same chance of ending well as Charlie Sheen's chance of a rehab and recovery with no withdrawl symptoms.
As for "The King"...."Here King, Here King...heel!"
You forgot "Delicious"
http://www.popartuk.com/humour/after-a-few-beers-gn0267-poster.asp
AAPL not so strong lately. hmmmm.
and speaking of march madness. who's the dewd that has a room full of dancing trophies? danced on showtime at the apollo? learned to play basketball in the bronx? that's right. kemba walker. go uconn.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_cAslxeMT_y8/TJQX2i8vwrI/AAAAAAAAAUg/_6PN19OVxn...
That f-f-f-f-f-f-fucking m-m-m-m--m-movie w-w-w-w-w-would h-h-h-h-h-have b-b-b-b-b-b-een a-a-a-a-a--a-a l-l-l-l-l-l-ot shorter if they could have found an actor who didn't c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-c-stutter!
Ahh yes, there is nothing quite so stunning as a lypo sucked, saline pumped, botox injected, rouge slathered brunette in a dimly lit environment. One minute she is dropping her dress past her hips and on to the hotel room floor and next thing you know you are waking up in a bathtub full of ice and a kidney missing.
Everyone gets carried out on their shield, some are jacked up on the little blue pill and mumbling, "it was a sure bet" and THAT is a stunning fucking sight.
Still waiting for that triple leverage ETF that lets you go long civil unrest.
RGR
rather bullish chart...
I enjoy your posts, Robo. I don't know why so many here can't understand that a guy can ride a liquidity rally profitably, while simultaneously knowing that the party will end very badly.
I guess it's OK if Tepper says it on CNBC, but not if you say it on ZH.
Anyhoo, keep up the good work!
I second that sentiment.
Here's the updated list of "Investor's Riverboater's Daily" Top 50 stocks:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9692542
Has a few other screamers which I neglected, like Open Table....
Restaurant reservations business on a tear...
LOL! Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is also making new highs:
Maybe their waitresses look like Salma Hayek... :)
"liquidity rally"?? Look, your grandkids are tired of supporting you, go get a job.
Uh, yeah. What do you call it when Uncle Sugar's fat finger puts a bid under any and all "risk (wink, wink) assets"??
Ask that question to your grandkids in twenty years.
I have long held the belief that when gasoline sustains a $7.50/gallon price many of the issues that have been dogging America will begin to be addressed due to the economic viability of the solution set.