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Knight Research' Stunning Call: "The Game Is Over"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Knight Research. Presented without commentary.

The Game Is Over

The simple story is this: We believe the structural and cyclical terms of global trade have finally reached their tipping point. This will catalyze a wholesale change in sentiment and a historic repositioning of risk assets. The emerging market global growth story is over.

  • In meetings with clients throughout October, we began emphasizing our growing concerns about the nearly ubiquitous confidence the financial markets—and for that matter, global leaders and their body politic—have in China; and by extension, the rest of the emerging market story, commodities, and the direction of foreign exchange cross-rates.
  • Not surprisingly, our concerns were met with varying degrees of resistance; but the overall consensus clearly favored a very bullish, asymmetric outcome over both the near and intermediate terms. When pressed as to our own sense of timing and specific catalysts  for broad-based trend reversal, candidly we were unclear. Our sense then, was that the higher and faster the commodity markets pushed, the sooner the reversal would occur. But we have now clarified our view.
  • In just the past several weeks, we believe the data and government actions out of China, the back-up in US interest rates, the Fed’s emphatic commitment to QE2, intensifying pressures across the EU, broadly rising commodity prices, government efforts to control hot money flows, have finally pushed the global terms of trade to their tipping point.
  • And now, as is evident by the flight to safety, and growing evidence that China will soon try and effect price controls in addition to raising interest rates and significantly changing the rules for their vast network of Local Government Funding Vehicles (LGFVs); the writing is on the wall. The game is over.
  • The simple story is this: The structural and cyclical terms of global trade have reached their tipping point which will effect a wholesale change in sentiment and a historic repositioning of risk assets.
  • So what do we consider the “terms of global trade”? Structurally, per our top chart, they are the intersection of Government Policy (viz., rule of law, market systems, trade law, etc.,) Resource and Industry (viz., natural resources, labor/demographic pools, industrial advantages, import dependencies, etc.,) and Economic Security (viz., the sovereign’s competitive standing, the relative power/needs of the citizenry, the mandate/control of the government, etc.) And cyclically, (as represented by the light blue, bold arrows) the terms of trade are defined by the intersection of foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, and the cost and availability of trade finance.
  • And in our assessment given:
  1. The structural breakdown of the credit and labor markets in the developed world and the anemic outlook for nominal GDP growth
  2. The immaturity of the developing world and their vulnerability to credit shocks and uncontrollable inflation
  3. China’s dependence upon non-economic, and unsustainable credit expansion to maintain growth far beyond natural export and domestic demand, and
  4. Asia’s dependence upon imported energy and agriculture

the game is over. Presently, we believe that the broad-based resurgence of investor confidence in the emerging market and secular bull market in commodities will end badly; proving that the rally which commenced in Q2 2009, was in fact an “echo bubble” facilitated by massive—and unsustainable—stimuli from the Chinese Government

  • And although such cataclysmic shocks rarely result in rhythmic, straight line fractures, the chain of price adjustments should be  relatively clear. Accordingly, we expect a shockingly powerful rally in the dollar, broadbased weakness across the commodity sector, a dramatic widening of emerging market credit spreads, and what could prove to be a stampede of hot fund flows out of the emerging markets.
  • We appreciate both the gravity and the brevity of this note; but then again, the story is simple.

We believe that the end of the Great Consumer Credit Cycle and the vast structural differences in the terms of trade between the United States, the EU, and China, have finally caught up with the secular bull thesis on Emerging Market and Commodities. Quite ironically, the Fed’s aggressive policies will likely prove to be the catalyst which breaks China’s unbridled expansion of credit and non-economic growth, ushering in a wholesale rebalancing of risk assets.

 

 

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Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:54 | 735530 Rahm
Rahm's picture

11:59:59

 

BUT THEY STOPPED THE CLOCK.  IT'S ALL RIGGED!  THE ONLY QUESTION IS

 

WHEN WILL THE CLOCK RESTART, BITCHES!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:59 | 735562 SMG
SMG's picture

After the all important GM IPO.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:23 | 735700 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Even if nobody else picks it up, the PD banks who are underwriting the IPO will buy it all. This offering will go off without a hitch. Obama will/have/has saved the country. That has been and will be the spin for the rest of history.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:44 | 735813 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

More worthless paper traded for more worthless paper (and both parties record a gain!)

Complete and utter FICTION

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:58 | 735883 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All just a bunch of paper shuffling fiction.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 19:22 | 736176 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Utter nonsense if you're a gold bug.

Makes complete sense if you're not.

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 22:46 | 736655 maddy10
maddy10's picture

30-40 trillion$ monetary assets under institutions as of June2010

They have to go somewhere

Sure , big money has realised it is time to go back to preservation of capital now that easy money has been made

PM markets total 100 billion[0.3%] and cannot sustain the huge capital inflows

Therefore Dollar assets aka treasuries and soforth will rise along with 300-400%rise in PMs

Lookout for huge windfalls in CAD,AUD

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 23:57 | 736794 rocker
rocker's picture

Good thought, Maddy.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 00:32 | 736834 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

nothing new here. we already knew the china model was based on empty GDP; fuzzy numbers that originated from non essential production like building empty skyscrapers,deserted cities, and overemployment.

but that still leaves the question of where does the money go? in this scenario described, its not bullsih for the dollar; it implies a currency disrpution if there is a flight from emerging markets. it implies a defacto commodities based system, at least temporarily, set to replace the fiat credit and growth system that is now waning. industrial metals, oil, key commodites become the new trade instruments, and the method of trade would have to be material.

as much as globalists would like nationalism and soverignty to die, it will not. and with a re-emergence of nationalism (brought on by the "envy" of the US's monetary creation option), we would see a collapse of the euro, european countries returning to their own currencies, and a major set back for one world government initiatives. 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:32 | 736034 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I take it history ain't lasting too much longer.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:33 | 736040 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

just wait til they announce they are out of koolaid

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:04 | 736413 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Green Shots Lime is really hard to find anymore...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:16 | 735662 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

All I want to know is if they cleared this article with Leo first before posting it?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:57 | 735879 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

LOL

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:00 | 735885 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Or the Gonzo economists, or FOFOA? The rally in the dollar is what I was referring to back in September, when a lot of folks were predicting hyperinflation via a collapse in confidence in the dollar. Oh well.

It will indeed come, as I said before. Just not now.

 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 00:50 | 736854 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

haha.

will it last as long as the rally did in 08 ?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 05:06 | 737166 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

dang good question.  quite the trading opportunity.  i had been waiting to reduce tsys on equity weakness/tsy strength.  may not happen quite like '08 this time (maybe more like '87 -- bond sell off to stock sell off with overnight huge bond rally after)?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 16:54 | 737985 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

I see you haven't changed your view since calling for "hyperinflation" via a dollar crash as soon as last September. The ongoing saga in currency wars has left no impression, I take it?

To answer your question,  it will be an ongoing race to the bottom, with everyone trying to cheapen their currency, and things zig-zagging as this tug-of-war goes on. The real question is how long can that game be played? Ask the Bond Markets for the answer to that one.

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:13 | 736438 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

I'm not sure about Leo, but I think Reggie at BustedBlogGoesBoom predicted this when he exited his moms womb.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 22:29 | 736592 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

You mean Reggie from the virgin birth?  Yes, I am sure he told you that.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 02:28 | 736962 Pozzo
Pozzo's picture

+1 trillion

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 02:27 | 736959 Pozzo
Pozzo's picture

+1

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:42 | 735802 Realist
Realist's picture

Well, if Knight Industries Research says it's so, it must be: http://www.knightindustriesresearch.com/

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:52 | 735857 Capsaicin
Capsaicin's picture

Impressive depth on their website. Reminds me of the light switch in grandma's log cabin.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:41 | 736070 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

+1000 !

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:12 | 735948 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

If K.I.T.T says the game is over, then the game is over

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:34 | 736046 spartan117
spartan117's picture

I can't believe Tyler would post junk from these people...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:08 | 736422 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Agree . It read like junk as well . The gypsy fortune teller at the county fir could do a better job of convincing . Pooorly written , un professional. 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 00:25 | 736823 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I've asked Tyler if he'd be willing to let you screen and approve all topics before he posts them on the ZH site.  I'll let you know what he says.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 02:42 | 736971 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Double post.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 02:38 | 736974 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

I already know the answer you will get. It will be no response or no.

I think the article was more than worthy of being printed. And I've been a very long time. Too bad the commentors are one sided these days preaching conspiracy and gold bitchez.

Once upon a time ZH was a great blog.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 19:48 | 736238 vegaspilot03
vegaspilot03's picture

..

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 19:45 | 736241 vegaspilot03
vegaspilot03's picture

seriously...

 

and Jim Cramer has a nicer site...

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 01:16 | 736884 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

http://www.knight.com/ourofferings/strategicResearch.asp

Ooops.  Missed it by t-h-i-i-i-i-s much....

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 06:00 | 737187 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

No you missed it by this much. Nice little raccoon. As Scooby would say; Ruh-roh Raggy, Rorots.

http://www.knight.com/investorRelations/pressReleases.asp?releaseID=1492972

"Knight's Algorithmic Execution Strategies Win Buy-Side Technology Awards"

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 05:23 | 737170 Popo
Popo's picture

Funny, but it's here:   http://www.knight.com

More interesting however, is that their banking sector analysis is mostly positive:

http://www.knight.com/investorRelations/analystCoverage.asp

Which would suggest that they believe the game is in fact, not over.

 

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 20:40 | 736370 toathis
toathis's picture

restart? it already did! The event happened in 2008. Now the worst is over. Nothing else is coming!

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 02:15 | 736944 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

This article is bullshit. Well reasoned and insightful but bullshit nonetheless.

One day soon, this scenario will play out but NOT YET. Give it another 12-18 months and then we'll see.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:55 | 735534 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

I like the term "echo bubble".    Reminds of that great band Echo and the Bubblemen.

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:58 | 735556 Calvin Jones an...
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle's picture

And there is always the splinter group: Bennie and the Bubblemen.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:03 | 735594 jimijon
jimijon's picture

And the derivative group... Bennie and the inkJets

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:05 | 735597 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

^^ Beat me to it.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:19 | 735684 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

....what?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:09 | 736426 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

I thought it was the "Bunnymen" ?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 23:16 | 736721 alex_g
alex_g's picture

Saw them in New York in '87 or '88.  Actually a great show

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:55 | 735536 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Sounds painful!

That POMO thing...

..wtf is up with that lately?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:56 | 735543 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

does this mean the summer of recovery is canceled?

what about hope and change?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:08 | 735622 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

...my hope has been changed...it's not called hope anymore...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:10 | 735932 HomemadeLasagna
HomemadeLasagna's picture

It has been replaced with grope for change...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:11 | 736429 Rahm
Rahm's picture

^ FTW!!!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:14 | 735953 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

You can hope they change their mind.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:56 | 735545 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Sounds like a bad time to issue an IPO...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:57 | 735553 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Anybody catch the "Flash Crash" in TGT this afternoon??

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:59 | 735567 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

More like flash pump n dump.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:01 | 735577 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

A bunch of stocks AAPl included dropped on the NTAP halt.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:11 | 735646 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Flash crashes are now used to "fill the gap".

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:57 | 735554 Segestan
Segestan's picture

Does this mean the third world will actually have to carry thier own weight? Oh My!!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:03 | 735593 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

My God, unthinkable! Actual haircuts must be taken and loads must actually be pulled? How gauche.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:25 | 736003 Weaseldog
Weaseldog's picture

Yup, they won't have the easy life of being economically raped anymore.

 

Now they'll have to pay for the priviledge of getting screwed against their will.

 

don't worry, though, the USA will soon enjoy the fruits of Austerity programs. It won't just be those other countries having all the fun!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:41 | 736487 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

I hope you are wrong about Austerity, but you're dead on about the third world as compared to the first. Mindboggling provincialism to think the 3rd world hasn't been carrying it's own weight. Try traveling to a third world country and NOT staying in a 4 star hotel and you get a sense of what's going on there. I especially urge you to visit a "Free Trade Zone". 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 23:14 | 736716 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

+++

Anyone who deludes themselves that the "west" got so big and fat and rich by the fruits of thine own labour alone, need to study history.

Those in the US just need visit a Maquiladora, south of the border.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:15 | 736444 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

yeah right. they would be fine if they werent constantly raped and pillaged by multinational corporations and their government enforcers. 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 07:34 | 737216 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

SEGESTAN:

How clueless are you? The 'average' citizen in the 3rd world has no personal debt. The 'average' person in the 1st world has approx 29K in total debt (not including mortgages). The fun will begin when the 3rd world stops accepting dollars.

The poor are already poor. American's can stand to lose a lot of weight before anyone even notices...

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:58 | 735557 waylon153
waylon153's picture

How many clients does Knight Research have?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:05 | 735605 GoldenEye
Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:08 | 735626 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Incredible.  Well done!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:18 | 735677 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

dont think china is on the list LOL

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:58 | 735558 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"In just the past several weeks"

oh, this just happened? 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:01 | 735571 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

JUST happened, just now! Yea sure.
Just happened again! FWWWWWTTT! Looked away for 1 second and missed it.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:59 | 735561 Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Buy the dollar??? Are you off your rocker???  That's it I'm 100% long toilet paper.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:11 | 735643 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Long? Well done. Toilet paper is a sustainable investment for you and the whole familiy.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 16:59 | 735566 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

We are enslaved by debt and meanwhile are further and further taxed via currency debasements and inflation in the necessities like food and energy.  The folly of the Fed and others in driving already overvalued risky assets to further overvaluations in the hopes that the consumer will feel sparky and spend in a "kick the can" just won't keep "working".  It is game over.

Watch for water, arable land, and tangible tradable items become the norm for acquisition.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:19 | 735679 Charley
Charley's picture

Not the right time yet...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 22:00 | 736547 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I'm with you, but Rogers is doing great long-term positioning.  He's kinda the anti-Soros in some/not all ways.  Each learned from the other.

Then there is Niederhoffer-where is he nowadays?

- Ned

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:00 | 735573 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Sounds like somebody was caught on the wrong side of a strong bullish move and now wants to talk their book. Right or wrong, the "game" in China is in its early stages. There will be a lot more "growth" and strong investment returns before the "game is over." 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:10 | 735582 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Sell a book' lol See ya far lower Harry hope you can sell to some poor sucker left out there. Did you already sell your Apple? Or more scoop the poop...I mean buy the dip?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:06 | 735609 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

You sound like a realtor I once knew.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:09 | 735635 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

 

The increase in housing inventory might help push prices higher, said Marilyn Newell of the Platinum Group Realtors in the Springs and another Realtors Association board member. A surplus means buyers have more choices and homes on the market must be well-kept and competitively priced, she said. "Because we don't have as many buyers," Newell said, "they have the luxury of going with the home that is in perfect shape.

"June supply of homes highest in 17 years" by Rich Laden, Colorado Springs Gazette.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:15 | 735661 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Wait, wait, wait--run it by me again:  how does the increased supply push prices up?!?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:22 | 735696 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

“If you own your own home free and clear, people will often refer to you as a fool. All that money sitting there, doing nothing.”

- Anthony Hsieh, CEO Lending Tree

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:56 | 735873 PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

QFT!!

I remember this, "your high credit lines is your biggest asset"

Twenty-somethings were listing their unused CC lines as assets, seriously.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 20:27 | 736302 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

In the perverse world of credit reporting (per Fair-Isaac), unused lines of credit are indeed considered to be an asset. The reasoning being if you get in a tight spot you can pull your way through by borrowing money, thereby preventing a ding on your credit score. So in essence, the score process itself becomes all encompassing per its own importance. In reality, if someone has one regularly paid credit card instead of a dozen, they should score higher...if indeed fair-Isaac was a true indicator of risk, and not a pusher for high-fee credit lines per a piece of plastic. This simple fact is all one needs to know to understand how fucked-up our society has become.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:49 | 735843 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

I should have stopped reading that after the first sentence.  My brain hurts now.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:13 | 735651 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

It'll eventually end in tears but with China you're looking at decades - 20,30 years before that breaks down. It's US post WWII. Look how long it's taking here to break down and we're still going, albeit with a bit of a limp, but going nonetheless.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:41 | 735799 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I've reserved judgement on you until now Harry, but this post convinces me you really are a complete idiot.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:46 | 735831 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry doubled up on the rose colored Lasik surgery.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:48 | 735838 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

It's not the rose colored glasses--he's been wearing them since he started posting here. It's the inane comparison of China in 2010 to the U.S. in 1945.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:01 | 735890 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harrys just become a caricature of himself now, just ridiculous.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 23:56 | 736790 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

China's "one child" policy started decades ago doomed them to a startlingly fast decline.  That's one way current day China is radically different from the USA circa 1945, and ultimately is deciding factor.   The US is at replacement, China has been well below for decades, and worse, has produced lopsided cohorts with five boys for every four girls, thanks to high rates of infanticide, and to a lesser degree abortion as sonograms became more common.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:51 | 735854 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

ECRI Leading Index now at -5.7%.

Been steadily increasing from the -11% that was reported here like the end of the world. Starting from the end of July, here you go:



collapse;width:165pt">



120.7 -11.0   121.3 -10.7   121.9 -10.2   120.6 -10.1   120.8 -10.0   120.4 -10.3   121.9 -10.2   122.5 -9.4   122.2 -8.7   122.5 -7.8   123.7 -7.0   122.2 -7.0   122.0 -6.9   123.0 -6.5   123.1 -6.5   123.9 -5.7  
Wed, 11/17/2010 - 19:55 | 736266 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Harry, I think you are a valuable contributor to this site and I hope you do not disappear if the market should go against you.

You counter every "macro" observation with a micro snap-shot. In Weimar Germany 1920 was a bumper year for many, 1923 not so much. It is important for me to be reminded that people with your mindset exist.

I miss Johnny Bravo.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 20:23 | 736329 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Yeah.  I think Johnny at least could plot a series of numbers.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:12 | 736434 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Again, my point in posting this turnaround in leading indicators is to point out how we only hear how things are scary bad here. But when they turn out to not be, ECRI a case in point, then it gets tossed into the dustbin. 

People here only want to hear negative reports. It seems any good economic number gets ignored or is a "conspiracy" or a "fraud". Of course when those numbers are bad and support their views, they are taken as gospel. 

Again, ECRI Leading Indicators, is a report that fits this bill perfectly. Remember "-10% means we're heading into recession?" Rosie pounded this down everyones' throats for weeks. That is until it didn't happen and the indicator improved. 

Just look at both sides, people. Educate beyond a biased viewpoint. 

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 01:21 | 736889 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

There is a difference between "negative reports" and "truth".

You might want to look into it.

 


Your Brain is Broken
Click on link for video

Posted: 13 Nov 2010 09:30 AM PST

Around these parts, we are so very keen to point out cognitive foibles.

Temporarily stuck in human form as we are, our instrument for perceiving the universe around us are inherently flawed, susceptible to all manner of errors.

Its a design error in the wetware.

In the ongoing battle to keep these flaws from impacting our investing process, we keep learning of new problems — with both the hardware and software. We can work to keep the firmware updated, but the errors are even worse than we previously imagined:

New research suggests that misinformed people rarely change their minds when presented with the facts — and often become even more attached to their beliefs. The finding raises questions about a key principle of a strong democracy: that a well-informed electorate is best.

Facts, apparently, don’t matter much . . .

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/

http://www.npr.org/v2/?i=128490874&m=128490868&t=audio" height="386" wmode="opaque" allowfullscreen="true" width="400" base="http://www.npr.org" type="application/x-shockwave-flash

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 22:36 | 739938 Element
Element's picture

Dear hAIRY wANGER,

See: "The Recognition Window" - John Hussman - September 6, 2010
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100906.htm

You realize what a leading-indicator is, right? It 'leads' the official data, and usually by one or two quarters - or more.

If you're wondering why ECRI is finally rising again, it might have something to with ~$875B being injected into consolidated US public-debt servicing.

It's been getting everyone exercised you know, like imparting hot-money and inflation globally, and destroying exporter margins and creating conditions almost perfect for a global trade war etc., leading to a second global trade collapse and all the rest of it.

Just little, inconsequential events, really.

And given ECRI has a protracted history of turning out to be 100% reliable at predicting recessions, in due course, then I'll take its proven  indications over your call of, "its all clear".

And examine the CMI 'leading' indicator(s), while you are at it, actual real-time online durable goods sales that reflect the demand conditions and downstream implications.

http://consumermetricsinstitute.com/index.html

There's a 'recognition window' involved with all such leading-indicators. In the case of the CMI it's about ~18 to ~22 weeks, in the case of the ECRI, its historically been longer.

But if you were actually interested in understanding what it is you’re trying to discredit you’d already know that.

What Hussman is warning is, don't take your eye off the ball and blow your dough, when dumbshit licorice-all-sorts come out of the woodwork inevitably saying, "Look, see, no recession! We have all these positive signals!".

The macro picture has undeniably not been this bad for the best part of a century. Do you really think there won't, at a minimum, be a severe global recession within formal data, in the near future?

If you do, then I recommend you do something useful, like start a productive real-economic business (i.e. non-FIRE sector related), and let us know how that goes in 18 months.

But what am I saying! Do you think you have the balls, the brain, the skills, let alone the heart or the mental toughness, or the necessary ethics and personal commitment to do something like that? Come on be honest with yourself.

Your commentary seems to reveal a hollowed-out troll playing devils-advocate to get some cheap private laughs, rather than a reflection of cerebral processing. Fine, enjoy it, by all means.

But do find a political ideology forum. There are plenty such ghettos on the net for that, and you’ll be good at it. ;-)

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:10 | 735933 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

"we expect a shockingly powerful rally in the dollar, broadbased weakness across the commodity sector, a dramatic widening of emerging market credit spreads, and what could prove to be a stampede of hot fund flows out of the emerging markets"

So I guess I'll trade in my gold coins for U.S. Treasuries now?

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:29 | 736019 Sausagemaker
Sausagemaker's picture

China's run will be shorter than you think:

http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/

Sausagemaker

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:34 | 736479 Orly
Orly's picture

Unbelievably disgusting.

There is no way that a people who treat their citizens that way will long survive.  If you have ever doubted the unreal level of pollution in China, you must see these pictures.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 22:23 | 736583 uberfinch
uberfinch's picture

That's how America looked 120 years ago.  Don't see how they won't "long survive."

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 00:03 | 736801 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Their one child policy that started decades ago has doomed them to a rapid decline.   America has had no such civilisation destroying demographic implosion occur, or not yet.   China's is working its way through the python, or dragon in their case, since several decades, with the additional curse that they did extra-late abortions on lots of female babies along the way.  They are trying to get rich before the country declines from being on average rather old, thus the attitude toward the environment and workers' health.    They are pretty screwed.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 00:29 | 736829 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

It will be interesting to see how they respond to that awareness that they were possibly sold a 'Bill of Goods' in that respect by the Globalists in the 1970's to adhere to the one-child policy in return for being the primary beneficiary of western de-industrialization.

Or perhaps it has already been factored in to some larger de-population matrix that the PRC readily accepted and is using to control its population (unknowingly before the average citizens own eyes) thus mitigating the primary resource imbalance the country presently possesses...

....Which makes you wonder...If so...What exactly was the quid pro quo population bargain response proffered by the western social engineers?

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 02:59 | 736999 hammel123
hammel123's picture

I hear where you're coming from with Pittsburgh mills at the turn of the century. But the U.S population was closer to 80 Mil on the area roughly comparable to China. If you include Canada, which I guess nominally is a separate country ; ) but shares water resources of the Great lakes, for example, the area doubles.

China's was able to move roughly 40% of it's people into the cities, while making virtually all of its fresh water supply unsafe to drink without treatment. I think ecological factors are a real limit on growth

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 22:51 | 736667 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

They are not the only country. At first I thought I was looking at pictures from Cubatao Brazil.  It took China 5000 years to get this way. I am sure they will survive a few thousand more.

But I concure, outragiously disgusting.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 23:15 | 736718 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

We treat their citizens like that Orly. We do. If we did not make a market for their cheap goods, that level of abuse (both the people and the land) would not be possible.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 06:58 | 737210 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

some time back someone posted pictures of INDIA's pollution... while i am myself disgusted with many of the Indian habits.. here....its not bad to see the chinese arent that bad at pollution either

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 08:08 | 737238 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Industrial pollution is a byproduct of industrial production. No matter how pretty you package the pollution, it exists. As MsCreant mentioned, we(USA) export our manufacturing pollution to far away places and foolishly think it will not affect us.

India is another story altogether. Just a casual observation, India does little industrial manufacturing in comparison/per-capita but has a high comfort level with waste, mostly human. This is not a reflection on you per se, rather the more regional Indians as they are the ones with the affinity, like pigs in a barnyard.

http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/pictures/filthy-india-photos-chinese-neti...

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 07:57 | 737237 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

That's actually Detroit. They got some dudes form Chinatown to fill in.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:40 | 736065 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

"Theres never been a better time to buy...."

   <serious voice on>

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:28 | 735718 dead hobo
dead hobo's picture

Harry Wanger,

My most sincere apologies for every bad thing I wrote about you. The main post is completely off the wall and crazy stupid. While the world has important issues with finance, the world has no intention of ending any time soon and the real US recovery is starting. Europe won't evaporate and I can't imagine Ireland's debt problems destroying the world any more than I can imagine a dog chewing on a carpet causing a wall to fall down.

The real mystery is how these kooks became money managers that anyone trusted. The other mystery is why you like to argue with windmills.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:35 | 735762 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Where did this story come from? And why would ZH post it??

Anyway, if you really want to read about sovereign debt problems historically and the outcome, there is an amazing series written at Calculated Risk blog. If people would take the time to read it, they wouldn't be so naive about the how little risk a default in Greece or Ireland or Spain would affect the global economy.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:51 | 735817 dead hobo
dead hobo's picture

Thanks, I'll take a look.

BTW, I think ZH is a national resource because you can read things here you can't see anywhere else. You just have to filter the message into the real world and ignore the nut stuff. That being said, a free flow of extreme crazy combined with good stuff that is available nowhere else is still a good read and the only place I know of to get the full spectrum of financial news.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:30 | 735735 Revolution_star...
Revolution_starts_now's picture

I just touched your "junk" and I don't even work for the TSA.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:04 | 735907 phat tails
Wed, 11/17/2010 - 19:35 | 736205 szjon
szjon's picture

That should come with a warning, just finished cleaning the tea off my keyboard. thanks!

 

Brilliant!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:31 | 736029 Sausagemaker
Sausagemaker's picture

That. Was. Funny.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 22:50 | 736668 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

LMAO

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:39 | 736060 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

I give it four years, 2013 for the formal announcement of China as reserve currency peg and a year of investors going gaga over it. Inversely, that will be the time to buy assets for those pennies on the dollar.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:55 | 736114 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

Generally speaking, bubbles involve an asset price move of roughly 20x, give or take.

Mississippi company was almost precisely 20x

Gold, from 35 to 850 in 1980 was about 24x

Nasdaq from 300 in 1989 to 5100 was about 17x

There are dozens more examples. On this scale, the Shanghai composite's move from 30 in 1991 to ~3000 today would be a bubble 3x larger than anything ever observed in human history.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 19:43 | 736235 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

I called the top on the S&P 15 minutes after the POMO schedule was announced last week while your dumb arse was blathering on about "riding out 2010 to S&P 1300 before taking some profit".  Harry, you are the ultimate bagholder...  you never get it...  

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 20:45 | 736380 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Well said.......he's still waiting for the "snapback".....PMSL

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 20:52 | 736388 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

"Ultimate bagholder"? Really? Let's see my last biggest buys were AAPL yesterday at avg. 300.30 and PCLN at 400. Hmmm. Doesn't seem like those are going against me yet. 

Now if you are referring to PMs, then yes, I am a bag holder. Have been since 2002. But stocks I trade in and out of long and short. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:42 | 736489 Orly
Orly's picture

He'll get his snapback tomorrow.  USD drops like a stone, while the Ozzie dollar vacillates.

Fascinating chart patterns.

Once in a lifetime stuff.

Thu, 11/18/2010 - 01:28 | 736860 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

ARGHH !

Is this you, Orly?  Or John?

A few days ago, someone posting under Orly's screen name said that Japan would unexpectedly announce their own quantitative easing policy on Tuesday night, and gold would rocket up starting at 01:30 eastern time Wednesday morning.  

Here is the exact quote:


early Wednesday morning about 0130 Eastern time, the Bank of Japan is going to announce further measures to ease the currency against the USD, which, in turn is going to make the price of gold jump like mad.  Get long calls on gold futures at that time.

You'll make a mint.

:) 

WTF?  Is there any control over these monikers anymore? The real Orly would not be foolish enough to post something so specific that only a real clairvoyant/gypsy could predict. 

To the real Orly....I would suggest you change your name and avatar because these false posts are ruining your credibility.  Just my humble opinion...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 20:27 | 736313 RECISION
RECISION's picture

As Harry might say - wake me up when the markets have ACTUALLY moved >10% or so, and it all isn't just noise and volatility. 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:01 | 735575 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

how can it be over, we have fraud motors ipo yet to come

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:03 | 735595 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

lol !!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHH......I liked that one. 

What's 478mm shares between friends ? 

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:02 | 735580 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

OMG "Staycation"

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:04 | 735601 redpill
redpill's picture

If they can afford a modified Trans Am and a semi to carry it in, well shit they must be worth listening to!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:08 | 735613 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61VhdEsDzd4

"I am the Nightrider. I'm a fuel injected suicide machine. I am the rocker, I am the roller, I am the out-of-controller"

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:12 | 735649 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The ayatolahhhhhh of rock n rolllaaahhhhh

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:38 | 735773 redpill
redpill's picture

And like Blaster, at his moment of defeat in the Thunderdome, Uncle Sam will finally have his proud helmet removed only to reveal a face of a retarded child, brain-damaged by 100 years of central bankster Keynesian abuse.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:50 | 735846 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

I smell a sequel! I wonder if we could get Mel to come out of retirement?

 

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:02 | 735900 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nah Mel's too pissed off at the Jews.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 22:32 | 736611 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Simply beautiful. God this site needs a +1 feature...

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:05 | 735603 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

I'm confused!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:11 | 735645 redpill
redpill's picture

It's ok, so are they!

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:05 | 735606 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Presently, we believe that the broad-based resurgence of investor confidence in the emerging market and secular bull market in commodities will end badly;

The secular bull market in commodities may end but the commodities/PM run up as the result of currency debasement is another story.

I've read this thing three times now and I still don't know what they hell they think they're showing with this chart.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:13 | 735652 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

let me translate:

we missed the move in gold from $700 to $1400 and silver, 8 to 29 so to make ourselves feel better we now conclude that the entire move was some fake chinese thing. do we look smarter?

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 18:11 | 735941 cxl9
cxl9's picture

Exactly.

And now they "expect a shockingly powerful rally in the dollar"? Based on what? Intrinsic value? Fundamentals? A limited supply? A lack of alternatives? Please do tell.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 21:43 | 736496 Orly
Orly's picture

Good old-fashioned flight to safety.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:06 | 735610 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Statements like these will continue to "support" this fake market. I hope I'm wrong.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:06 | 735614 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bennie will buy emerging markets if the squid tells him to.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:09 | 735628 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Benny and Timmay are having their proxies buy or bury Knight Research right now.

This kind of research report can't be tolerated.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:12 | 735615 DollarDive
Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:07 | 735619 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

Wow, a financial firm that isn't repeating the latest fairytale?

Bye-bye Knight Research, you surely won't be getting any Christmas cards from the White House this year!

Don't worry though, Warren will drop you a note to let you know how the goose tasted.

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:07 | 735620 swissinv
swissinv's picture

I just don't get it how you can predict inflation and being bearish on commmodities

Wed, 11/17/2010 - 17:14 | 735657 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Exactly. Like I said, they missed a bullish move and are trying to talk their book now. These firms are all alike. Just happens that this one is saying what ZH wants to hear.

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