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Krugman: American Economy Will Not Recover for a Long Time
Last week, Pimco's CEO said
that he doesn't think we'll have a v-shaped recovery, and that
economists, advisors and managers who have been counting on a v-shaped
recovery are ignoring the economic fundamentals in our economy.
Now, Paul Krugman is agreeing:
Plunging
prices of houses and CDOs ... don’t produce any corresponding
macroeconomic silver lining. ... This suggests that we’re unlikely to
see a phoenix-like recovery from the current slump. How long should
recovery be expected to take?Well, there aren’t many useful
historical models. But the example that comes closest to the situation
facing the United States today is that of Japan after its late-80s
bubble burst, leaving serious debt problems behind. And a
maximum-likelihood estimate of how long it will take to recover, based
on the Japanese example, is ... forever. OK, strictly speaking it’s 18
years, since that’s how long it has been since the Japanese bubble
burst, and Japan has never really escaped from its deflationary trap.This
line of thought explains why I’m skeptical about the optimism that’s
widespread right now about recovery prospects. The main argument behind
this optimism seems to be that in the past, big downturns in the
world’s major economies have been followed by fast recoveries. But past
downturns had very different causes, and there’s no good reason to
regard them as good precedents
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Not enough stumulus? Good grief, they're willing to apply as much stimulus as they can think of stimulating! That argument is DOA.
Yes. Keynesians will exhibit sporadic flashes of conscience in vain attempts (ultimately) to atone for their devil worship.
Well damn now I'm confused...It used to be t hat I could look at what Krugman was saying and automatically know the opposite is true...but I don't see a recovery here. So is Krugman actually trying to make a correct call for a change?
This is classic Krugman CYA. He's just making sure there're a few contrary calls on the books to point to when his primary thesis has been shown to be worthless dog sh*t. The politicians have written the book on playing both sides of the fence and Krugman is simply working the CYA chapter. Give him a few days. He'll be back to normal.
Naaahh, Krugman's finally starting to realize the writing's on the wall for his Keynesianism and he doesn't have the good sense enough to keep his mouth shut and slink off into the dustbin of history. Things are going to unravel rather quickly henceforth. Krugman mostly is trying to delay and deny his own impending impopularity.
$!!
oops..
¥!!!
America: Fuck you Krugman, no shit
Hemingway couldn't have said it better.
Seriously, people bash Krugman when he's right and they bash him when he's wrong. Like him or not, he's not drinking the electric battery acid kool-aid
i suppose that's the conundrum you're faced with when one thinks their own opinion is an accurate representation of truth?
You're right about one thing...he doesn't drink the cheap shit:
http://www.associates.com.au/products/Squid_Ink_Shiraz08.jpg
+25
Thritto.
Ditto.
Hey Paul, I thought you said it would all be okay if we kept handing out the tax receipts from 2025?
Merrill 2.0
Fannie and Freddy are lurking
Well F* me! That makes one of 'em wrong!
Keep in mind:
A French Jewish commentator, Bernard Lazare, noted Jewish propensities in high finance in the late 1800s:
"The man of the lower middle class, the small tradesman at whom speculation has probably ruined has much clearer ideas of why he is an anti-Semite. He knows that reckless speculation [by financiers], with its attendant panics, has been his bane, and for him, the most formidable jugglers of capital, the most dangerous speculators, are the Jews; which, indeed, is very true." [LAZARE, B., p. 173]
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Doesn't that make you smile? :)
Hmmm.. You are stealing my conspiracy theory.
Let's pretend that , Bernanke, Bair, Shapiro, Frank, Summers, Greenspan, Blankfiend, Rahm, Rubin, Weil, Greenburg, Soros, FBI head etc... were all say... Skinheads with shaved heads and swastikas. We would be alarmed that such a small minority of sociopaths were at the head of our vital institutions and in charge of law enforcement, and government policy.
Yet.... Change the word skinhead to Jewish and there is nothing to be leery of....
Is that racist crap or something to think about ?
Let's imagine they were all well-educated people who went to the same small group of universities and were not sports athletes in college. Let's imagine they have all read and enjoyed P. G. Wodehouse. Let's imagine they all play bridge. Would we be alarmed at that?
Anonymous #183795: your post is first racist crap, and if it weren't, it would be statistical crap.
We should all pay homage to the master race . . .