Kyle Bass' Latest Must Read Letter: "The Cognitive Dissonance Of It All"

Tyler Durden's picture

The Cognitive Dissonance of it All (pdf)

 

Courtesy of Absolute Return + Alpha

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43 Steelie's picture

Thank you TD. This guy is one of my 2 must reads in addition to Sprott.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

maintaining a sufficient inflation buffer and applying preemptive easing as necessary to minimize the risk of hitting the zero bound

Scary meddling going on at the Fed.

The 2004 document was written by Bernanke, Reinhart and Sack.

Fantastic document by Bass.

StychoKiller's picture

My intuition tells me that hitting the zero bound will result in a lot of financial calculations bending by 90 degrees and becoming completely Imaginary number(s) in the Argand plane!  Oscillations will be the least of our worries...

NOTW777's picture

dont worry obama promising right now to cut the deficit in half

says the deficit is Bush's fault and from the "previous decade" and due to the recession.

markmotive's picture

Absolute must read.

Might also suggest listening to this interview on the global debt trap: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/02/15/surviving-the-global-debt-trap/

jus_lite_reading's picture

Took quite some time to read but will require more DD on my part. In all, very good work. Some quick notes:

I believe the EU will be forced to abandon the PIIGS or disintegrate completely- the great EU experiement failure.

I believe the EU is in the worst fiscal condition of all, followed by the US and UK close second.

I believe social unrest in the US will explode on the scene very very soon but it will begin in Greece once again.

I believe a global cataclysm is imminent and the direct result of greed, corruption and the love of money. More later.

Hubbs's picture

I think US still too numb and dumb, fat, lazy etc to launch civil unrest at this point. Will need to time, but also will take a European country to show us the way first.

Biggest concern is how quickly can things unravel,  even more so  than whether they unravel.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Hope you're right, Hubbs.  I've lost faith in the American public.

Agent P's picture

Faith, does not exist, in this dojo, does it?

HellFish's picture

Most people in the US are a week or less away form being very hungry.  Very hungry people will act violently. 

jus_lite_reading's picture

Actually, very hungry people's very hungry children will make very hungry people act violently. The end has drawn near. We're counting down the days, not years...

Vergeltung's picture

my balls instantly ingite in flames if I connect to GlueHuff. sorry.  what did it say?

StychoKiller's picture

Wisconsin Governor and state house are gonna toss out all collective bargaining(s) for public employees -- do Cheesheads know how to Riot like Egyptians?

SheepDog-One's picture

Just Lite agreed on those points.

Equities are the least relevant thing around, but people are trained to believe 'stock markets=economy'.

Hubbs's picture

The stock market is a front. Just like a legitimate appearing business that crime families set up to hide behind, and whose real purpose is to launder money, just as the FED is laundering Wall Streets crooked "investments" (bets) gone bad.

kridkrid's picture

Nice analogy.  I will use as my own :-).

jus_lite_reading's picture

Excellent anaolgy. It's amazing it has taken a crisis to expose this rigged game for what it truely is- a money laundering, "wealth transfer" from the middle classes to the now even more wealthy. Even Warren Buffet is shaking in his boots.

alexwest's picture

thank GOD there's second guy in whole world ( excl myself) WHO DOES KNOW THAT COMPARING FED DEBT / GDP IS BOGUS

GDP iS fake.. that why OBAMA prosiimng cut in half.. he's not promizing cut in absolut $$, he cutting debt/gdp ratio.. its made up to glide out levels of debt.. so only proper way to measure is DEBT/FEDERAL REVENUES, OR COST OF SERVICING/DEBT..

so any zane person reading that understand that in 2,3 eyars of +1.5 trln budget deficits it will be THe END..

DEBT IS GONNA HIT $18-20 TRLN.. no way out.. only cost of servicing will be 1/3-1/2 of federal budget..
so there will be either default/new $$ curr, or HYPERINFLATION (AKA PRINTING MONEY AKA Q. EASING)

hiking taxes wont help,,. you can double yet budget wont
be balanced.. and not taking account of deminishing economy ..who WOULD WORK TO PAY 50-80% INCOME TAXES.. ???

so save your self,, out money into gold/silver ,, move out of US , Australia/Canada/Europe and just watch..

alx

melachiro's picture

Dude, try decaf.  I get a migraine trying to stumble through your posts.

Nepenthe's picture

Hmm, that gave you a headache but your patch indicates you've spent many hours sitting under a giant microwave beam. Brilliant!!

Boilermaker's picture

Who gives a shit?  REITs have just, again, reversed their large sell off and are sailing into positive territory.

Hell, this is like being on the right side of a point shaving scandal and having the referee's complicit with it!

buzzsaw99's picture

everything will be fine once fannie and fraudie regurgitate the toxic crap they ate back into the laps of the banksters for pennies on the dollar.

You go back, Jack, and do it again...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2Fs5GrUBwI

abalone's picture

Ain't that the truth. Deal me in!

bluehorsesandal's picture

A couple of months ago I put a link to this Charles Mackay's quote in my Bloomberg banner. My commitment is to keep it there as until we see asset prices showing that people recovered their senses...

Racer's picture

: Fed's Lacker says any new Fed effort to cut unemployment risks inflation

 

and Fed's Cumming said inflation is quite low at the moment

 

Which planet are these people on?

The Navigator's picture

That's the problem, they're on OUR planet - if we could just get them Off Planet, what a paradise we'd have.

Maybe we could take a piece of Alaska, rename it the State of Corruption, ship them all off to there, and they can go FUCK each other and leave us alone.

PicassoInActions's picture

Today on CNBC

"Adding to the cost of food won’t greatly distort most household budgets. Food, gas, clothing, personal care products and cleaning and laundry supplies make up less than a quarter of household spending in the United States, according to government data."

 

Does any1 know where did they collect this data?


Johnny Lawrence's picture

I've read in other places that groceries only comprise 5-6% of the average American household budget.  I don't know if that's true or not, but it's what I've seen.  Stark comparison to Asia & Africa where its 30%.  Again, no idea if the numbers are accurate.

Quintus's picture

I believe they just pull it out of their collective asses.

DonnieD's picture

They must collect it from family's earning $250,000+.

Quick math says that a family making $100,000 easily spends 35-40% of their net pay on food, gas, clothing, cleaning and laundry supplies. A family making $60,000 can easily spends 50% of net pay on those items.

TooBearish's picture

Yep - they collect the data from the dark, cavernous void in their Ivy league buttholes

AZSovreign's picture

Speaking of clothes a pair of Levi 501 jeans went from $34 to $58 here in AZ at a local dept store...

jus_lite_reading's picture

Coming from CNBS, you know it's BS. My calculations put middle class Americans spending on food, fuel and non-discretionary items ex housing at 32%-38% soon to be 45%

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Kyle Bass' Latest Must Read Letter: "The Cognitive Dissonance Of It All"

You rang? Sorry, but I was taking a nap.

We must be nearing a top. All kinds of people, including those who already knew and were outspoken and those who were too afraid to speak out against the herd, are calling for the Fed's head.

 

Miles Kendig's picture

As this inexorable process maturates.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Hey Miles,

My brand new "Certified Junk by Cognitive Dissonance" mugs just arrived from the WilliamBanzai7 Zazzle store. I'm the first kid on the block with the new CD mugs.

Are you jealous? :>)

http://www.zazzle.com/certified_junk_mug-168381764244764639

Miles Kendig's picture

:D  Just because I can't help it .. It's a recession!!  Welcome to commodities inflation at the retail level

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IFIOjNwoBU

COFFEE BIAAATCH!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFN_Iu_PD-g

I'm having enough trouble trying to hold that black coffee in my Mad, Mad world or digital dickweed mug, hence the reason I have to add bits of chocolate on occasion.  Still get the shakes from ponzinomic withdrawals once in a while. 

No such thing as too much love for the incomparable art, or those that generate it at wb7 labs.

 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I feel like a little kid in the candy store every time I visit WB7's store. Oh, I want this. No, I want that and this. An that and that and that.

Then the adult in me makes me promise I'll only spend $50......this time. Note to self. Call my accountant and see if I can claim WB7's stuff as a business expense. :>)

I love that so many of the ZH veterans have been showing up lately. Old timers month at The Hedge.

Miles Kendig's picture

Big time.  All around.  I am simply loving how the fight clubbers are driving considered opinion beyond the 140 standard of Twitterization.  Yes, many of the macro situations have been resolved for many, but that does not preclude some super D duper absurdly dynamic or dynamically absurd spins down thread.

Cheers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWJYUY36tEU

And yes folks, Zero Hedge is THE spot to find the very best in bastard (and the trolls that live off the labor of others)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNtiLQ36_IY

Stamp that trunk junk Cog!!

Revolution_starts_now's picture

http://www.zazzle.com/williambanzai7/?pg=8#homeProducts

Damn it CD I was hoping to get my avatar on a coffee cup, T shirt or maybe something big enough to put on a bill board.

( bernank blowing cash out his ass, a classic i tell you, a classic)

Miles Kendig's picture

No doubt.  And a hella better junk than that bowling for dollars, Kardashian crap linked above.  Even if it as all fiat!  I'd rather have the tickets than that junk

Cheers and here's to hoping all that passing ink doesn't plant a tat on your trunk

papaswamp's picture

Since 2002, global credit has grown at an annualized rate of approximately 11%, while real GDP has grown approximately 4% over the same timeframe – credit growth has outstripped real GDP growth by an astounding 275%.

 

Wowza! Great analysis on Japan too....wow are they screwed sooner than I thought.

blindman's picture

http://archive.wbai.org/

Tuesday February 15 9:00am   1 hour News

great interview here. "road map to catastrophe.."

http://wbai.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10676&Itemid=141

Downtoolong's picture

Thus far, the systemic risk that was present in the global credit markets in 2007 and 2008 has not subsided; rather, it has simply been transferred from the private sector to the public sector.

Well said. Most profits of big banks come from successful risk transfer. By successful, I mean risk transferred to those who usually don’t realize they are on the receiving end. The banks are smarter than most to realize that risk transfer and wealth transfer are one and the same.

As for systemic risk, I’m not sure anyone has yet defined exactly what it is. Nonetheless, I’m sure Wall Street banks will claim they have it under control once they have distilled it down to a single index and written $100 Trillion in OTC derivatives contracts based on it.

johnnymustardseed's picture

I think is sort of silly to say that interest rates will go up. How can they, when the FED is buying/creating the debt? There will soon be only one buyer and that will be the FED. So, it is all funny money anyway. It is important to think more about where you want to be when this comes to an end.

A Man without Qualities's picture

A 100 bp increase in the average cost of debt for the US government will raise interest expense by  approximately 6 times the latest quarterly revenues of Apple.  

We are living in the realm of the absurd.

DonutBoy's picture

Interesting point about central bank leadership straight from academia, as in LTCM.  What could go wrong?