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Kyle Bass' Latest Must Read Letter: "The Cognitive Dissonance Of It All"
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Thank you TD. This guy is one of my 2 must reads in addition to Sprott.
Scary meddling going on at the Fed.
The 2004 document was written by Bernanke, Reinhart and Sack.
Fantastic document by Bass.
My intuition tells me that hitting the zero bound will result in a lot of financial calculations bending by 90 degrees and becoming completely Imaginary number(s) in the Argand plane! Oscillations will be the least of our worries...
dont worry obama promising right now to cut the deficit in half
says the deficit is Bush's fault and from the "previous decade" and due to the recession.
Absolute must read.
Might also suggest listening to this interview on the global debt trap: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/02/15/surviving-the-global-debt-trap/
Agreed ... a must read ...
Took quite some time to read but will require more DD on my part. In all, very good work. Some quick notes:
I believe the EU will be forced to abandon the PIIGS or disintegrate completely- the great EU experiement failure.
I believe the EU is in the worst fiscal condition of all, followed by the US and UK close second.
I believe social unrest in the US will explode on the scene very very soon but it will begin in Greece once again.
I believe a global cataclysm is imminent and the direct result of greed, corruption and the love of money. More later.
I think US still too numb and dumb, fat, lazy etc to launch civil unrest at this point. Will need to time, but also will take a European country to show us the way first.
Biggest concern is how quickly can things unravel, even more so than whether they unravel.
Hope you're right, Hubbs. I've lost faith in the American public.
Faith, does not exist, in this dojo, does it?
Most people in the US are a week or less away form being very hungry. Very hungry people will act violently.
Actually, very hungry people's very hungry children will make very hungry people act violently. The end has drawn near. We're counting down the days, not years...
How fast? This fast-
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/11/scott-walker-unions-wisconsin-n...
Coming to a town/village near you...
my balls instantly ingite in flames if I connect to GlueHuff. sorry. what did it say?
Wisconsin Governor and state house are gonna toss out all collective bargaining(s) for public employees -- do Cheesheads know how to Riot like Egyptians?
Just Lite agreed on those points.
Equities are the least relevant thing around, but people are trained to believe 'stock markets=economy'.
The stock market is a front. Just like a legitimate appearing business that crime families set up to hide behind, and whose real purpose is to launder money, just as the FED is laundering Wall Streets crooked "investments" (bets) gone bad.
Nice analogy. I will use as my own :-).
Excellent anaolgy. It's amazing it has taken a crisis to expose this rigged game for what it truely is- a money laundering, "wealth transfer" from the middle classes to the now even more wealthy. Even Warren Buffet is shaking in his boots.
thank GOD there's second guy in whole world ( excl myself) WHO DOES KNOW THAT COMPARING FED DEBT / GDP IS BOGUS
GDP iS fake.. that why OBAMA prosiimng cut in half.. he's not promizing cut in absolut $$, he cutting debt/gdp ratio.. its made up to glide out levels of debt.. so only proper way to measure is DEBT/FEDERAL REVENUES, OR COST OF SERVICING/DEBT..
so any zane person reading that understand that in 2,3 eyars of +1.5 trln budget deficits it will be THe END..
DEBT IS GONNA HIT $18-20 TRLN.. no way out.. only cost of servicing will be 1/3-1/2 of federal budget..
so there will be either default/new $$ curr, or HYPERINFLATION (AKA PRINTING MONEY AKA Q. EASING)
hiking taxes wont help,,. you can double yet budget wont
be balanced.. and not taking account of deminishing economy ..who WOULD WORK TO PAY 50-80% INCOME TAXES.. ???
so save your self,, out money into gold/silver ,, move out of US , Australia/Canada/Europe and just watch..
alx
Dude, try decaf. I get a migraine trying to stumble through your posts.
Hmm, that gave you a headache but your patch indicates you've spent many hours sitting under a giant microwave beam. Brilliant!!
Who gives a shit? REITs have just, again, reversed their large sell off and are sailing into positive territory.
Hell, this is like being on the right side of a point shaving scandal and having the referee's complicit with it!
everything will be fine once fannie and fraudie regurgitate the toxic crap they ate back into the laps of the banksters for pennies on the dollar.
You go back, Jack, and do it again...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2Fs5GrUBwI
+1
Great song too!
Ain't that the truth. Deal me in!
A couple of months ago I put a link to this Charles Mackay's quote in my Bloomberg banner. My commitment is to keep it there as until we see asset prices showing that people recovered their senses...
: Fed's Lacker says any new Fed effort to cut unemployment risks inflation
and Fed's Cumming said inflation is quite low at the moment
Which planet are these people on?
That's the problem, they're on OUR planet - if we could just get them Off Planet, what a paradise we'd have.
Maybe we could take a piece of Alaska, rename it the State of Corruption, ship them all off to there, and they can go FUCK each other and leave us alone.
Today on CNBC
"Adding to the cost of food won’t greatly distort most household budgets. Food, gas, clothing, personal care products and cleaning and laundry supplies make up less than a quarter of household spending in the United States, according to government data."
Does any1 know where did they collect this data?
I've read in other places that groceries only comprise 5-6% of the average American household budget. I don't know if that's true or not, but it's what I've seen. Stark comparison to Asia & Africa where its 30%. Again, no idea if the numbers are accurate.
I believe they just pull it out of their collective asses.
They must collect it from family's earning $250,000+.
Quick math says that a family making $100,000 easily spends 35-40% of their net pay on food, gas, clothing, cleaning and laundry supplies. A family making $60,000 can easily spends 50% of net pay on those items.
Yep - they collect the data from the dark, cavernous void in their Ivy league buttholes
Speaking of clothes a pair of Levi 501 jeans went from $34 to $58 here in AZ at a local dept store...
Coming from CNBS, you know it's BS. My calculations put middle class Americans spending on food, fuel and non-discretionary items ex housing at 32%-38% soon to be 45%
You rang? Sorry, but I was taking a nap.
We must be nearing a top. All kinds of people, including those who already knew and were outspoken and those who were too afraid to speak out against the herd, are calling for the Fed's head.
As this inexorable process maturates.
Hey Miles,
My brand new "Certified Junk by Cognitive Dissonance" mugs just arrived from the WilliamBanzai7 Zazzle store. I'm the first kid on the block with the new CD mugs.
Are you jealous? :>)
http://www.zazzle.com/certified_junk_mug-168381764244764639
:D Just because I can't help it .. It's a recession!! Welcome to commodities inflation at the retail level
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IFIOjNwoBU
COFFEE BIAAATCH!!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFN_Iu_PD-g
I'm having enough trouble trying to hold that black coffee in my Mad, Mad world or digital dickweed mug, hence the reason I have to add bits of chocolate on occasion. Still get the shakes from ponzinomic withdrawals once in a while.
No such thing as too much love for the incomparable art, or those that generate it at wb7 labs.
I feel like a little kid in the candy store every time I visit WB7's store. Oh, I want this. No, I want that and this. An that and that and that.
Then the adult in me makes me promise I'll only spend $50......this time. Note to self. Call my accountant and see if I can claim WB7's stuff as a business expense. :>)
I love that so many of the ZH veterans have been showing up lately. Old timers month at The Hedge.
Big time. All around. I am simply loving how the fight clubbers are driving considered opinion beyond the 140 standard of Twitterization. Yes, many of the macro situations have been resolved for many, but that does not preclude some super D duper absurdly dynamic or dynamically absurd spins down thread.
Cheers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWJYUY36tEU
And yes folks, Zero Hedge is THE spot to find the very best in bastard (and the trolls that live off the labor of others)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNtiLQ36_IY
Stamp that trunk junk Cog!!
http://www.zazzle.com/williambanzai7/?pg=8#homeProducts
Damn it CD I was hoping to get my avatar on a coffee cup, T shirt or maybe something big enough to put on a bill board.
( bernank blowing cash out his ass, a classic i tell you, a classic)
No doubt. And a hella better junk than that bowling for dollars, Kardashian crap linked above. Even if it as all fiat! I'd rather have the tickets than that junk
Cheers and here's to hoping all that passing ink doesn't plant a tat on your trunk
Since 2002, global credit has grown at an annualized rate of approximately 11%, while real GDP has grown approximately 4% over the same timeframe – credit growth has outstripped real GDP growth by an astounding 275%.
Wowza! Great analysis on Japan too....wow are they screwed sooner than I thought.
http://archive.wbai.org/
Tuesday February 15 9:00am 1 hour Newsgreat interview here. "road map to catastrophe.."
http://wbai.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10676&Itemid=141
Well said. Most profits of big banks come from successful risk transfer. By successful, I mean risk transferred to those who usually don’t realize they are on the receiving end. The banks are smarter than most to realize that risk transfer and wealth transfer are one and the same.
As for systemic risk, I’m not sure anyone has yet defined exactly what it is. Nonetheless, I’m sure Wall Street banks will claim they have it under control once they have distilled it down to a single index and written $100 Trillion in OTC derivatives contracts based on it.
I think is sort of silly to say that interest rates will go up. How can they, when the FED is buying/creating the debt? There will soon be only one buyer and that will be the FED. So, it is all funny money anyway. It is important to think more about where you want to be when this comes to an end.
A 100 bp increase in the average cost of debt for the US government will raise interest expense by approximately 6 times the latest quarterly revenues of Apple.
We are living in the realm of the absurd.
Interesting point about central bank leadership straight from academia, as in LTCM. What could go wrong?
: US Treasury's Geithner says must reform entitlement programs to rein in debt
Yes, entitlement programs like the daily entitlement programs that give all the taxpayer money to primary dealers type of programs.. end those today and stop fleecing the people and killing the poor, sick and elderly
Not to mention let the bondholders lose on their fraudulent bonds. Everyone knows they are. Even if we did this in 2008, no one could legitimately complain. In 2011, it is flat out retarded for anyone to think this way. This stuff is WORTHLESS.
Glass-Steagall
We have 3 options
1) Print (keynesian)
2) Cut through imposing austerity (austrian)
3) Glass-Steagall (wipe the fruaulent shit out of the entire system, starting with ourselves)
Now, not only do #1 and #2 not solve the problem, they make the people who created this crisis whole at the expense of others. At least until the hyperinflation hits. (if they stop printing it's back to hyperdeflation, as what caused the collapse of derivatives can and will happen again). This doesn't mean PRINT, because again printing is leading to hyperinflation that we're already seeing, because it is already here.
So you engage in #3, where the people who knowingly bought crap, are made in a capitalistic system to lose. Now Glass-Steagall looks at everything on the books. MBS, CMBS, derivatives...EVERYTHING. What isn't real, which is the MAJORITY of financial aggregates, will be wiped away, and with that, over 17 trillion in today's debts.
Yes, this not only rids the 'problem' once and for all, it also gets rid of the 'debt' or the secondary problem. So instead of paying lip service to one by empowering the other, you shut BOTH SHITTY PROBLEMS DOWN.
Glass-Steagall or New Dark Age
Side note: Jesus Obama is tossing off Warren on tv: Just look at the so called democrat suck the cock of the great WB. Seriously, obama is calling for the nut in his mouth.
If there was one question I wish I knew the answer to, that would be "how long can they keep it up" (and I'm not referring to a rare but potentially serious Cialis side effect)
Same here - every morning I scan the financial websites to see if reality finally hit. One day it will. It's amazing to see these ponzi markets and ponzi governments continue while the zombified sheeple wander around in Idiocrastan, oblivious to the butt fucking they're taking.
kyle bass has a hard on for selling japanese debt.. i guess in his view, this will be the first ponzi to go. from my read, he is hedging fiat with fiat, which is great, but you have to be nimble. from an 'individual investor' point of view, when the music stops, it will be hard for me to cash it all in at the coin shop and say, "cool, i shorted jgbs, bought mbs's, made a fortune in these here USDs, now give me 2 pounds of gold"... from the little guy perspective, accumulation of physical is the most prudent way to go.. oh yeah, i bought 2500 starbucks via packets too, wrote them off as a business expense, diversifying the physical portfolio.. surprisingly, these nice little packets have not increased in price in the past 3-4 months. :)
Well if he only advised people to buy bullion, they probably wouldn't be willing to pay him top dollar for his investment services. If they need someone who can dodge in and out of JGBs while they sleep at night, well then that may be worth paying someone!
Well if he only advised people to buy bullion, they probably wouldn't be willing to pay him top dollar for his investment services. If they need someone who can dodge in and out of JGBs while they sleep at night, well then that may be worth paying someone!
Hayman owns bullion fwiw.
Anyone have any idea how to short JGB's?
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HEY TD I HOPE YOU DELETE THE ACCOUNT OF THIS SPAMMER
HEY TD I HOPE YOU DELETE THE ACCOUNT OF THIS SPAMMER
Fantastic post. Zero Hedge rocks.
Who cares? Recession is over, isn't it? The Bernank said so.
Too bad Kyle didnt expand his Japan currency devaluation outcome scenario further. i.e. which sovereign would be most negitively impacted and hence which would most capitalize from that scenario.
This dude is so on it.