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Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While today's unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low. Assuming a reversion to the mean in the long-term
average participation rate back to 66%, means that the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November,
is in reality 157.6 million, a
delta of 3.91 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the
unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force
delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%.

 


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Fri, 01/07/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Thank you for exposing the misinformation from Minitruth.

Next stat we need: The underemployed.

 

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Exactly!

Personally, I think The Turd nails it:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/putting-bs-in-bls-bs-report.html

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

if you do say yourself.  ;-)

 

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

With all due respect, Turd, I think I can summarize today's numbers in a more pithy way:

Joblessness is at a 19 month low. But Jobs are at a 25 year low.

How's that? :)

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment kentfinance
kentfinance's picture

Cheerleaders with No Brains or Competence of course focussing on the "plunge" in unemployment rate.....

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

I have been a member of ZH for 26 weeks(and it feels like forever) I wonder how people who get unemployment benefits for their 80th month feel about it? Don't they feel like it's their right to have it and that it does not matter if they work again or not?

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 14:13 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

It's the right of all taxpayers to repossess as much money from the government as possible by any means, and then more for good measure. One way or another the government needs to be reined in.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment threefingerscam
threefingerscam's picture

3.91million must have moved to Canada or Costa Rica, so they don't count anymore.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

those two-income households aren't necessary anymore because inflation is so low and wage growth so high...

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And what about those Mexican "tourists" that keep comming into the US?

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

NILF (not seasonally adjusted) Nov 2010 to Dec 2010 increased over 700,000.

Dec 2009 to Dec 2010 1.5 million. 

Dec 2000 to Dec 2010  15.1 million.

This signals a long term job degradation.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Zapinho
Zapinho's picture

wow !!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

How long with the spin and lies continue until reality and the truth sets in?

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

Until Osama Bin Laden is captured.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Did you say until Obama Sin Lying is captured?

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

That day will come when the Fed is forced to admit it is the Thin Blue Line separating us from collapse.  There is no chance the Fed is about to abandon ZIRP and QE.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Spin and Lies is a market product, if there was no market(ie. no people willing to listen and belive it) there would be no Spin and Lies

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment boricuadigm-shift
boricuadigm-shift's picture

Plug and Shug!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Tyler- Please refrain from posting the truth. It hurts.

Sincerly,

BEnron Shalom Israel Bernank

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

@us_lite_reading

you;re best ... thanks

 

alx

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Extend and pretend! ;)

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

dont tell anybody or they gonna get you...
you talk like you work for OSAMA B.

alx

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

dont tell anybody or they gonna get you...
you talk like you work for OSAMA B.

alx

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%."

 

What do you think this is? A democracy??!!!

With thinking, breathing, awake elected representatives???!!!

 

Sheeeeesh!!!!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO/

Hysterical Historical chart, straight from da fed...if you can believe it.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

 

Thanks for the chart. I was encouraged in being reminded also that the recession is over.

 

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The "truth" doesn't matter.

The only thing that matters is how the traders react to the news, whether it is "fake" or not.

If traders buy the bad news, then the market is still healthy.

Otherwise, why would KB Home be up 6% pre-market?

Why would MGM, LVS, and WYNN be up pre-market?

Why is IWM up pre-market?

The guys at Fidelity, Janus, TIAA-CREF, etc. are a lot smarter than me.  So I'll just follow those guys rather than trying to out guess the big money.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

The only thing that matters is how many 'traders' are unethical and corrupt enough to play this game that screws so many. The market is a sham and bankster paper is flying everywhere.

Got PM's...because you're gonna need them. BTFD.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Because the market gets a weekly $10 Billion + cash injection from the fed? It's as faux a market as possible....but as long as traders are making bank I guess it doesn't matter.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

OK, why?  Do fundamentals matter anymore?  Are there any "investors" left?  Is "trading" the only game?  Not everyone has the time, or inclination, to stare at a desk full of monitors all day trying to follow the herd, then punch out.  When free markets return, if ever, then investors may return.  All clear to resume trading, Robot.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Bang on correct . Most important lesson I took away from 2010 :

Data means shit all with regard to markets . It's trader's reaction to the data that determines price action , and unfortunately that reaction is often irrational and myopic .

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Stop the F'ing presses! Robot! Are you implying the data is fake? Because if that's what you are infering then you're part of the lie.

 

On that note, buying the effing dip is now.... dead!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

"The guys at Fidelity, Janus, TIAA-CREF, etc. are a lot smarter than me.  So I'll just follow those guys rather than trying to out guess the big money."

I agree to trade you need to follow price action instead of trying to project future events which is a difficult objective to achieve consistently.  However, fund managers are measured on their performance relative to their respective benchmarks.  So in essence we have everyone following each other regardless of fundamentals because the pack seems to be going in a certain direction.  As for them being smart I do not recall receiving a call from Fidelity in 2008 to not purchase any mutual funds since they were headed for a nasty fall.  Robo you may be a good trader but your logic or lack thereof will cause you to be a victim of your own "blowtorched" and "bludgeoned" verbiage one day.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:19 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

ZH is not a daytrading forum.

Why in the FVCK are you here?

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Robotrader & Smailes were kicked off of Yahoo Finance for being too shallow.

Harry Wang is here because his urinal cake company failed.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:34 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Harry is not a real person (imo).  Look at what he says.  He is a swizzle stick used to stir the pot and produce sticky eyeballs for ZH.  Sticky eyeballs generate ad revenue.  Why do you think ZH refuses to give us an ignore feature?  Harry and Robo would vanish if there was an ignore feature.

 

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Right - obvious plants.  And the fact that they've been given special rights to insert objects into their postings lets you know they are sanctioned wankers.  Hmmmm.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Robo, The problem with that theory is that eventually it comes to an end. Unfortunately  in the interim time many innocent people are aggrieved.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

since when does running a big amount of money equal smarts?

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Because, dear Minyan, money moves markets.  News moves bowels.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

deleted

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Sad but true.  There is no end to the lies and deception they will pull to keep things going.   When the elite worry about unemployment or inflation they just simply change the way it is calculated.  Nothing like cooking the books from Enron to government agencies.   People are too stupid to call them out.

 

We are in alternate realities.  The market has taken a life competely on its own, defying any logic or common sense.  It is disconnected from fundamentals which do not matter anymore.   Do you think fundamentals mean anything to HFT computers that are 40-70% of the volume?

 

If you are going to consider the market you have to ask yourself a question:

 

Do I want to be rich or be right?

 

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Just like in 2000, or 2008?

Fundamentals always take over the distortion, my friend, so stay thirsty.

(After the crash, we'll all hear tall tales of how Robo & Wang exited hours before the meltdown began, and went short with leverage - those geniuses)

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

They are in the foodstamp line......and to think our New Census said we grew....hmmm....looks like lots of people just existing on air.......

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

AIG up 3% ... maybe another 4% today. AIG the new gold ... Lol'

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:08 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

Only $1,500.00 to go for those who bought in 2008 to break even!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Fools. They should have seen the credit bustup coming ...

Thats what's great about buying at $51. The guys like bruce berkowitz are smart buying low.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Soylent Green is...

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Extreme Recycling

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

...Made from the unemployed or underemployed

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Ding!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

LOL

I came here to make a soylent green post.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Can't wait to read Rosie's comments...

Actually, he'll probably be gentle, as he too much of a gentleman to BITCHSLAP THE SYCOPHANTS!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

we don't count(.)

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and everybody else can't count so they are in the clear :)

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

And the con continues, but what is really sickening is that they are REAL people who are suffering from this, they are not imaginary fake numbers

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:06 | Link to Comment redvetttes
redvetttes's picture

Black friday shopping

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

UE is the big turd in the Bernaks and Obuma Punch bowl..getting harder and harder to drink the coolaid from it..socialists created today's detroit and that seems to be this countries future...we are truly watching the bow sinking fast on the USS America.

while the football playoffs are broadcast in the main salon deck A.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I'm sure Steve (Fed shoeshineboy) LIESman will bring those facts to the forefront.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Was Jon Hilsebrath fired?

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment KnightsofNee
KnightsofNee's picture

All is plusgood. Rumors are flying about a new and improved iPhone! And for those non-deciples of the Man from Antares there is the new 4G. See, everything is going to be plusplusgood.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment KnightsofNee
KnightsofNee's picture

Attention, Attention, this message from Miniplenty, new job creation is up 120%!

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Jake3463
Jake3463's picture

Unemployment extentions bitchez.

Things upticked in December when some of the extended participants not looking for work panicked and thought they might get cut off from funemployment.

 

Obama fixed that by extending the Bush Tax Cuts in exchange for a year more vacation for those still collecting.  It was only fair, they deserve the 99 weeks too!

 

In any regards, that .4% drop is the unemployed over 26 weeks and under 99 weeks quietly going back to their bi-weekly payments till they expire before looking for work and nicely out of the labor force for the President.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Gold is doing well this week.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Tip - BTFD.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I bet the market tanks while Bernake speaks......just to let him know we know......

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 11:29 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Timmay Turbo & Ben Stealin' Bernank prepped Steve Liesman, like a flacid Wagyu Cow, massages & warm beer, before slaughter, for just this type of moment.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:31 | Link to Comment ExpendableOne
ExpendableOne's picture

And with todays news of future unemployed buy highly trained military personnel, things will only get "more interesting".  Talk about short term thinking, who was the genius who decided to transfer trained killers into the unemployment line?

 

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Jake3463
Jake3463's picture

Don't know but we should make sure they get housing in NYC and D.C.

Just so they are as close to the people that screwed them as possible.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 12:28 | Link to Comment redrob25
redrob25's picture

This is the U7 metric that was 'disappeared' from government accounting in the early 1980s. And so it was from many other countries as well.

I did research on U7 and found a few articles in the 1970s referencing it in the US and internationally, then the reference to U7 just went away. They swept it under the rug.

And now as unemployment reaches unprecendented levels, the U7 statistic can no longer be kept a secret.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment ibjamming
ibjamming's picture

Don't forget...the boomers just started turning 65 this month...there has been of course a run-up to this point.  It will just get worse as more and more leave the economy.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment DR
DR's picture

And boomers are taking SS early than expected.

 

"Men without a lot of savings often claim early because they need the money to live on, but wealthy men often claim early too, because they want to leave their children an inheritance and they prefer to live on SS benefits instead of spending down other assets that could otherwise be passed along to their children."

http://www.theslottreport.com/2010/06/married-men-should-wait-to-start-t...

Chronic unemployment is the new normal, especially for the young. Europe and Japan are our future though to a lesser degree.

 

 

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 16:20 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

can you proofread the article..  looks like the numbers don't jive as spoken..

 

the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November, is in reality 157.6 million

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