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Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%, Birth/Death Adjustment: +112,000

Tyler Durden's picture


Wonder why the unemployment rate is at an artificially low 8.9%? Three simple words: Labor Force Participation. At 64.2%, it was unchanged from last month, and continues to be at a 25 year low. Should the LFP return to its 25 trendline average of 66.1%, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%. And indicatively, the Birth/Death adjustment was +112,000.


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Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:41 | 1018107 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

why participate when you can get a gov handout and spend time at protests

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:51 | 1018145 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

Bens mandate is price stabilization and unemployment.  I guess we need some some more QE to solve this.  ANd incase anyone is keeping tabs, the recession ended 20 months.  Yup thats a 20.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:03 | 1018194 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Well I think they have implemented a new unemployment statistic. I call it the chinese labor statistic.

Basically, it goes like this.

If you are unemployed because your job got outsourced, you are not counted as officially unemployed. That is because someone in another country is doing the job for cheaper which helps out the main company here in the U.S. who is paying the employee wages. It's Win Win.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:19 | 1018244 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

More like Wang Wang

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:31 | 1018306 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

More like Kling-on?

But I don't quite understand this joblessness in the US. Everyday, in my inbox, I get offers to become:

1) A mystery shopper

2) An turn-key Internet millionaire

3) An ad-words rich-guy

4) A messenger 

5) My favourite: A cannot miss, scalping Forex trader

And that is just the tip of the Job-berg, of which I'm told only 5% is visible.

Which means there are thousands of invisible jobs too. 

Let's not hear any more of this joblessness business. The internet has jobs for one and all.

My e-mail told me so.

Oh, there was this personal shopper thing that really caught my attention too. Really, jobs is dying, jobs are not dead yet.



Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:35 | 1018320 bb5
bb5's picture

and Gaddafi is paying $2,000 a day for mercenaries

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1018554 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

There you go. Blood money, flowing fast and free.


Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:23 | 1018269 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Winning! Duh.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:15 | 1018228 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

My arse that's Ben's real mandate.

The Federal Reserve is a bailout machine. Their taken actions occasionally favour the populace, but always the big banks.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:17 | 1018240 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

FED mandate- 'Print money, hand to central banks'

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:26 | 1018281 MiddleMeThis
MiddleMeThis's picture

Shhhhhh, that's a secret.  Don't let the sheeple know!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:12 | 1018217 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

we have unemployment at probably 15-20%, record food stamp participation, a dead economy for the middle class, record foreclosures and falling home prices, increasing government regulation and intrusion, $4-5 gas and,

the clowns on the left and in MSM are dancing around and telling lies like we are in the best of times

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1018421 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

I haven't noted anyone on the left declaring these as good times.  Please let us know where this is dance is being held (I'll bet Charlie Sheen is behind this somehow).

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:43 | 1018113's picture

the dept. of truth is lying

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:02 | 1018186 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Their motto is, "What's reality got to do with it?"

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:14 | 1018224 docj
docj's picture

Nah - just The Bureau of Making Shit Up doing The Lord's work again.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:34 | 1018314 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

You mean the BuMSU doing TLW?


I like it.


Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:44 | 1018115 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Welfare bitchez!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:47 | 1018130 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 Physcological shit right there...

BTW, Back in the good ole days we could count on a pm beatdown on nfp Fridays, update:the script has been flipped as Gold and Silver move on up...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:55 | 1018161 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Always remember, when all else fails, use Psyops. 8.9% is a significant number because it is below that magic 9%. Of course their only weapon now is Psyops which also means their end is near. We should be happy!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:13 | 1018222 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

That's just completely misunderstand what psyops are all about - but that's off-topic.

The real point is that "they" actually believe these numbers.   It's not that they are making stuff up to manipulate anything, it's that they just don't know.   Much worse IMHO.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:16 | 1018235 Cortez
Cortez's picture

I agree that they believe their numbers.  They are like trained pilots who never would second guess the instrument gauges.  But unlike an airplane's gauges, economic numbers aren't based on hard science.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:44 | 1018116 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

head and shoulders labor participation rate.  can we trade this?  surely there has to be some derivative of a derivative of a synthetic product we can trade.

can GS tell us the target participation?  60%, 50%? 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:43 | 1018117 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

I'm not sure I'd want to participate in something called a "labor market".  sounds like hard work.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:47 | 1018132 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"labor market"..."slave auction"....same shit, different era.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:56 | 1018163 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:14 | 1018225 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Well be sure to jump in before it is too late :-( . I would hate for you to miss out on this Recovering labor market

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:44 | 1018122 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

And indicatively, the Birth/Death adjustment was +112,000.

Ah, see, there's the problem. If it had been +150,000, the expectations would have been beaten.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:44 | 1018123 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The good ole Birth/Death adjustment saves the day.  Maybe they will come up with a Wealth/Poverty adjustment and arbitrarily declare there is a surge in the number of wealthy Americans... just to make us all feel good.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:48 | 1018136 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Is the correlation between the above chart and the food stamp participation chart -100%?   Sure seems like it.  

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:49 | 1018140 gimli
gimli's picture

Don't worry --- as soon as we go to war in the Middle East, our armed forces will go on a major hiring spree and spend big on Madison Ave. advertising.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:52 | 1018151 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

oddly enough...military enrollment is counted as jobs gained...however, if I'm not mistaken...when they leave the military it is not counted as jobs lost.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:51 | 1018141 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

God bless all those young adults humping their heads off 10 months ago so we could add 112,000 more births than deaths last month. The fertile generation.

What's that you say.......that's not what the birth/death adjustment means? Well...what the hell else could it mean?


Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:40 | 1018325 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

maybe it was more deaths

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:49 | 1018143 godzila
godzila's picture

Still although the overall numbers are clearly underestimated there has been a slight improvement !?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:51 | 1018146 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Birth/Death adjustment.  "The horror.  The horror."

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:51 | 1018147 The Axe
The Axe's picture


JJust light your boss on fire...that seems to be a plan...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:52 | 1018148 mynhair
mynhair's picture

The Wealth Effect is working:  more people feel able to retire early, and do so.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:51 | 1018150 Cortez
Cortez's picture

The labor force participation rate would be another 8.4% lower if the porn industry were outlawed.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:59 | 1018170 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Average length of employment would also be severely reduced.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:21 | 1018256 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

...while "average length of unemployed" would surely increase.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:53 | 1018154 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

At this rate, we'll see 4% unemployment by summer...

Of course, we'll also have 65 million Americans on food stamps...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:09 | 1018757 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Nothing like using those who have lost hope to improve the statistic in order to give others hope.

I don't know if that's ironic, or just plain fucked up.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:52 | 1018155 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture
Aging Baby Boomers Reduce U.S. Unemployment Rate, Matus Says: Tom Keene

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:53 | 1018156 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Coming soon to a Sunday morning talk show near you .. eight point nine, not nine, EIGHT point nine. Propaganda is srs bsns.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:59 | 1018169 wherewasi
wherewasi's picture


Obviously we need more death to help the numbers.  Maybe Obamacare will get us there...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:17 | 1018236 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Obama would like to see a few more whitey's dead, gone, and in the ground, yes.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:00 | 1018176 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

So the 43M on food stamps are all "working poor"? How depressing, work at WalFart and so poor I'm eating gubbermint cheese yet counted as employed. THAT'S AMERICA BAYBEE!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:02 | 1018182 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The vast majority I see on food stamps are welfare moms and people on SSI or SSD.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:08 | 1018209 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

How would you possibly know this? Do you go up to them in the checkout line and ask or do you financially profile?

Try saying something believable.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:12 | 1018216 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

CD, meet topcallingtroll. He's a troll. He makes shit up on the spot. Please don't call him on it, or he'll make up more shit on the spot.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:17 | 1018238 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I know him well. Sometimes the stink becomes unbearable and I need to remove the trash from Zero Hedge.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:45 | 1018347 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

TCT isn't as bad as folks make him/her out to be - and probably works in a situation where (s)he gets to observe those who use food stamps, like a casino

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:59 | 1018177 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

There are plenty of farmhand jobs and chicken plant jobs. Chicken catching is tough work but good exercise. Hanging chickens used to be Pedro's job but it is also now available.

End all unemployment stamp benefits now so that people will be properly motivated to work.

It is not the taxpayer's responsibility to support people in idleness.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:33 | 1018302 Bob
Bob's picture

This from a guy who is anti-union yet earns at least double what he would in a free market only as a result of a highly restrictive professional association and monopoly that screws the entire population, yet has a major John Galt trip going with himself, and gets paid for working one day a week ostensibly "serving" the poor (which is almost certainly government funded) yet can't suppress his contempt for either the government or the poor. 

I've suffered the narcissism of colleagues like you for many years.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:03 | 1018181 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

Gold takedown looks weak. 1415 holding for now. My "sensors" were indicating a "sell the news" day - up at the open for stocks and then a hard sell-off, but the news just ain't that great so the market feels directionless for now.


Going to the fridge for another beer and wait for something to happen.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:43 | 1018345 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Gold now at $1426, are you back from the fridge yet?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:51 | 1018352 Bob
Bob's picture

Silver at $35.11

EDIT: Lybian oil wells on fire . . .

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:03 | 1018185 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

African-American 16-19 year old unemployment rate: (NSA) 37.2%

For total population (age 16-19): (NSA) 21.9%

That is how riots begin my friends, just look at Egypt. You can not have a high youth unemployment rate (under 25 years of age) and expect stability.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:05 | 1018198 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, when you're unemployed, you can spend the time educating yourself by going to the local public library and study skills in high demand.

Good thing no-one is shutting down public libraries or anything.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:10 | 1018214 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

No worries there is an app for that... it's called iConscription. Barring that, there is another one called iManufacturedEnemyToInciteJingoism

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:34 | 1018316 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Through about that age, they have a daily babysitter...  and $1 breakfasts and lunches...  I'd check out the next older age bracket's unemployment rate to get a better picture...  and then, see how many of that bracket has available credit for higher education. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:02 | 1018188 Wynn
Wynn's picture

The gov can spout all the phoney numbers it cares to, but all people are talking about is one number - the surge in gas price. Up 17 cents overnight around here.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:04 | 1018196 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Same here...up 14 cents overnight in my 'hood.

Question about UE there a way to track how many part-time/temporary jobs make up the private payroll gains?  Obama is constantly touting private payrolls.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:49 | 1018360 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Social Security somehow withholds FRNs from every employed SSN on a weekly basis, so you'd think it would be just a few mouse clicks on a SSA Database to get the right numbers...BUT NO!,  We need an entirely different bureaucracy called the B(L)S to do phone surveys!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:26 | 1018915 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

So what? Yeah, I'm paying more for gas but my house went down in value so they balance out. Don't you get it? Just bend over and take it. Some guy in DC or NYC needs to buy another $2 million condo.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:06 | 1018190 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

  Bernank knows the financial sector is the last leg standing on the stool that is the US Economy.  Wobbly and on one leg. Service replaced manufacturing.  With the avg holding period of stocks at 15 seconds ,now that's productivity.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:05 | 1018197 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Just think how great the UE number will look when more and more go Galt and the participation rate is 50%.  We'll be at maximum employment! But the saps working will be taking home less after taxes than those sat at home on their X-Box.

God Bless Amerika.

God Bless The Ponzi.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:07 | 1018202 ddtrader
ddtrader's picture

In line...In line....Everyone in line for Welfare, SNAP and free health care.  Eventually we'll all be in line for something.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:15 | 1018221 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Most people willingly lined up and walked themselves into the Ovens.

Americans are on the same path again.  Fear. Thats what it boils down to. The average American is AFRAID.   The turds at the top of the pyramid have done a fantastic job of brainwashing the plebs.

20 "law abiding" people will not rush 1 "hoodlum" with a pistol because a few of them may die, so they rather let said Hoodlum rob , steal , rape and enslave each one of them. Think about that. Theres no solution to this without a little sacrifice.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:08 | 1018203 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

According to Buffett and others in the elite ignorati: peasants who don't count anymore-- well they don't count anymore.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:28 | 1018290 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, its all simply managing a destroyed collapsed country, the economy is gone its been sold off to China. All this is just a controlled crash to keep the sheeple placated, a bit longer.
Financial people get blinders on and forget this is all about collapsing and instituting their 1 world govt, 1 world currency plan, dont loose the forest for the trees!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:09 | 1018206 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

bottom line: This stat is as reliable and as broken rubber. 



Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:08 | 1018207 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

220,000 private sector jobs added.  That is the only number you need to track.  The rest are the results of whether or not this number is rising or following.


I cringe at the thought of seeing Obama and Co taking credit for this number over the coming days.  The truth is much different.  Corporate profits returned one year ago, and the job growth trails profits by a year.


And as I have said for two years, that is what it would take to create jobs:profit growth.




Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:11 | 1018213 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

What?  Companies improved profits by slashing costs (i.e. their workforce).  They are not about to go on a hiring binge and kill their profit growth targets.

I hope you noticed how much the Birth/Death model contributed to the monthly NFP data.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:22 | 1018262 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

If you beleive that myth about job growth after profits , explain why we come out of the last several recessions with a smaller , weaker labor force?

Its because profits are coming at the expense of employees. M+A is about "buying profits" now , not growing organically. Because corps know we are at the end of the line , all that cash they are sitting on isnt to BUILD , its to buy whats already been built and then streamline via synergies , ergo job losses.

Marx was spot on. Capitalism will end up eating itself like a snake - the profit model is now destroying capitalism.  Which will explain why we are all confused as to the slant our politics has taken (socialist , facist , call it what you like , its going full circle and your future will be about shutting up or putting up)

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:09 | 1018208 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Nearly 500,000 people were added to the SNAP/Food Stamp rolls in December.

I guess they don't count as unemployed.

So much BS.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:12 | 1018215 CABO
CABO's picture

calculated risk blog  talks about the same, Labor Force Participation at all time low, don´t worry the will be a second banking crisis this time in Europe

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:18 | 1018241 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

More than 20% of the entire population of Washington DC, Mississippi, Tennessee and New Mexico were receiving SNAP/Food Stamps in December of 2010 (see page 3 of this document in this link):


Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:23 | 1018242 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Your going to see a rather steep decline in mkt in 2011.. bernank will be the fall guy for his money printing ways.  A new more moderate Fed chairman and a Mkt Recovery in 2012 for election time.  This is how it should go.  They need  an exit strategy for QE who better than it's inventor?.. it's been a disaster globally .

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:24 | 1018277 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There may be 'steep market declines' coming, not even sure about that, but there cant be any 'recovery' our economy is in fact destroyed. There are no jobs, because there are no jobs. Economy consists of money printing andmanipulation of data and indexes.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:38 | 1018970 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Will Bennie have to give back his 2009 TIME Person of the Year award?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:21 | 1018249 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture
BLS: You Shall Do What I Say!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:20 | 1018252 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not causing any equities futures pop, only big ups are in gold and commodities. No one really pays any attention to these 'reports' hell if we know its all BS so do the floors, just all about what to front-run now.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:32 | 1018308 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I hate to keep bringing it up, but there is no 'recovery', everything is about a world collapse to bring about their 1 govt, 1 currency world, cashless society.
I know the daily 'economic events' like these BS govt data dumps are hypnotizing, but its all lies no ones recovering anything we're a destroyed nation with a WORTHLESS currency everyone demands removal as world reserve currency. SLOWLY bring down the crashing 747 gently as possible, but its goin down no matter what. Already has in fact, this is all ILLUSION.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:36 | 1018318 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

I've been listening to PROFESSOR MICHAEL HUDSON lately.    Dr. Hudson says that the government wants a depression.  The goal is to shrink the economy by 20% .     Here is a very enlightening YOUTUBE clip by Dr. Hudson:

we're toast !

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:47 | 1018361 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Of course, there will be no 'building of jobs' because the country has been busted out thru NAFTA and GATT!
If you pay attention to the 'elites' what theyre building is a 1 world govt with 1 currency, CASHLESS society, and theyre almost there!
Even the IMF says there will be a 1 world currency, and want 1 world govt. The USA will be just another 3rd world country with far less population. That IS the plan, forget america rising up from the ashes, the plan was to burn it down not bring it back!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:55 | 1018733 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

See where Obama signed that trucking deal yesterday? Lot easier to truck the blow from Mexico to Wall Street.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:33 | 1020426 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture


Good video. Thanks.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:36 | 1018617 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Richard Benson at Specialty Finance, LLC gives an explanation as to how the BLS understates the actual unemployment situation. The BLS's data as compared to Gallup's recent polling shows two diametrically opposed views of the current status concerning the labor market. The bottom line is the unemployed/underemployed numbers are not getting better and it will likely not improve. The U.S. is experiencing a new paradigm within which a new underclass is being created.

"Our government is printing up jobs out of thin air the same way the Federal Reserve prints up money. To manufacture jobs, The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses their very own Net Birth/Death computer model (see CES Net Birth/Death Model for job creation at The idea behind the model is simple: Because small firms are always failing and starting up and it takes a few months for them to report on the payroll survey, an estimate is needed for the new jobs created. So, back when the economy was recovering, the Net Birth/Death Computer Model added jobs that had very likely been created. Their methodology goes like this:

- The Net Birth/Death model first creates jobs (112,000 for Feb.) on a non-seasonally adjusted basis;

- The computer-generated jobs are then added to the jobs actually reported by the payroll survey for the month;

- The new total is then seasonally adjusted which creates the reported monthly unemployment number announced to the public. It’s only much later that ongoing payroll surveys confirm or rebut the estimated job creation."

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 11:45 | 1018666 Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

In US the birth rate is > than 2x the death rate.  The school of 'dead reconing' would indicate that the economy needs to produce ~2 million jobs per year to keep up with births/death ratio of twenty years ago.   

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:03 | 1019711 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

Rick Santelli just mentioned this little blip on the green shoots chart...

Of course, the only response from the other CNBC commentators was essentially the sound of crickets chirping.

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lsjcma's picture

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