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Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%, Birth/Death Adjustment: +117,000

Tyler Durden's picture


March update: civilian noninstitutional population: 239.0 million; Civillian labor force: 153,406, Employed 139,864, Unemployet 13,542. Americans not in Labor Force: 85,594. Which means that the Labor Force Participation rate continues to be at a 25 year low of 64.2%. And Birth Death adds another 117,000.


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Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:43 | 1124551 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Maybe the unemployed are too busy eating Ipads.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:09 | 1124675 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

As Obama would say:



Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:22 | 1124734 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

The Fukushima 50 are hiring people removing toxic sludge.

That'll ease the unemployment huh, Benny?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:37 | 1124804 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:42 | 1124552 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

but somehow the unemployment rate ticked down.    ???

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:46 | 1124567 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Amazing what happens when people are simply no longer counted.  More "invisible" troops for the revolution?  What happens when a few million, well-armed, invisible people show up in Wall Street or Washington?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:52 | 1124583 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

LOP: The countdown accelerates swiftly to our own Tahrir Square.

But the CIA will start arming the Loyalists a.k.a. the Criminal Syndicate, not the rebels.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:58 | 1124632 defn8Dog
defn8Dog's picture


"If you don't claim your humanity you will become a statistic." 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:00 | 1124643 ReeferMac
ReeferMac's picture

My god, I almost came at that thought....

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:47 | 1124577 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Didn't Churchill curse statistics. 'Lies, damned lies and statistics'.

I see the beat-down of the metals as an opportunity to purchase and hence telling my children:

"This gold ounce coin, I bought it when the price was only 4 digits".

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:47 | 1124582 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Mark Twain.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:50 | 1124594 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

I stand corrected. He has some great quotes.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:53 | 1124610 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Actually it was a different British prime minister, Benjamin Disraeli.

Mark Twain said nearly everything, if we take all the attributions to be true. But Disraeli is reported to have said it first.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:18 | 1124718 earnulf
earnulf's picture

I believe that although attributed to Twain, it was actually said by someone else prior

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:49 | 1124598 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

"Statistics are like a drunk with a lampost: used more for support than illumination."

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:53 | 1124615 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

As the stats book I teach from says, "74.2% of statistics are made up on the spot."

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:58 | 1124627 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

We agree that these people are moving the goalposts, again..?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:35 | 1124795 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Like safe levels of radiation exposure.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:43 | 1124553 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't worry, there are plenty of asians who will work for nothing.  There that ought to get me junked quickly.  Rally on! (and hedge accordingly)

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:45 | 1124557 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

gold and silver whacked   again....

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:01 | 1124596 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Isn't that amazing.

In other manipulations, silver and oil both increase approx 8% in one month.


Gold $1424.2 Silver $37.39  Oil $107.43 4/1/2011

Gold $1422.2 Silver $34.36  Oil $98.55  3/1/2011


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:45 | 1124558 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Oh my, employment is exploding!  Silver will got to zero!  Yawn.

Silver For The People

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:44 | 1124562 tomfool
tomfool's picture

Bullish, nowhere to go but up!



Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:46 | 1124564 Robslob
Robslob's picture

if silver were at "zero" we are all dead...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:46 | 1124566 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

This BullShit gives "spin" a new meaning!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:45 | 1124571 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Big push by TPTB; serves 2 purposes; drives PMs down; helps the re-election chances of the best puppet they have ever had.  "oh what a tangled web we weave..."

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:00 | 1124647 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Nah, his ace in the hole was the n card, that won't fly again. Even the yuppie liberals are pissed off.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:47 | 1124573 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

PMs Down, Oil Up/Still "there"! Hmhmh!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:13 | 1124682 malikai
malikai's picture

LMAO. Jobs report "positive", oil beginning a premarket "dip" as longs are crushed. This is the most comical shit ever. 10 bux says today is a down day for oil.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:45 | 1124574 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture


The pump job on the market is already in place.  People not only won't disect the information, they don't even know what it means.

"it's getting better".  That's all they need to know.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:47 | 1124576 Racer
Racer's picture

And what a day to give out more news for idiots

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:48 | 1124588 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, you see, it's all about building 'confidence'.  Right?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:46 | 1124579 Robert Neville
Robert Neville's picture

Non institutional population? I happy to hear that 239 million Americans are not institutionalized. The rest must be working in government.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:54 | 1124621 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Perhaps "working" in government is an oxymoron.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1124815 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

I think "leeching" is a better term.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:49 | 1124587 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Gross just now on Bloomberg


There are many ways to default: The Romans did it by clipping their coins, the US is doing it by dollar devaluation, inflation and most importantly zero percent interest rates, which is taking money from savers and putting it in the pockets of corporations

when do interest rates go up?


"When the doves cry: Yellen, Bernanke and Dudley"

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:50 | 1124593 billwilson
billwilson's picture

Lots of jobs at temp agencies, hotels, bars and nursing homes. You know all those high paying gigs.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:54 | 1124620 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Oooo, and fabulous places to start a career in worthlessness.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:55 | 1125500 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Degrees in worthlessness to jobs in worthlessness. Celente is the man!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:54 | 1124618 Racer
Racer's picture

And more than half the number was made up... you couldn't make this up could you... uh, um.....

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:55 | 1124622 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I love the "Not in labor force" statistic.  March 2010 83264 and now March 2011 85594....that's bullish right?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:05 | 1124664 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

To a Keynsian, yes.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:56 | 1124629 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Birth/Death adjustment. What a joke.

NUMBers, killing you softly. From birth to death.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:43 | 1124824 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

There's comfort in numbers; a kind of surety. Numbers are what they are and cannot be questioned. Numbers are also easily perceived in several different ways when they are compared to one another.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:11 | 1125538 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Especially when the numbers have almost no bearing on reality...or you decide to compare the wrong ones (like 'jobs' instead of 'aggregate income').

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:56 | 1124633 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

This NFP number is too moderate to be considered a blow-out, but above consensus. That means uncertainty hangs over the question of the Fed's next moves. Without more stimulus in the form of QE, the economy's best days are numbered. Especially with inflation kicking in. Forget about a serious tightening. 

Fed: Screwed if it does, screwed if it doesn't!

Lotsa Luck, Bensahn!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:00 | 1124644 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Friend of mine ran a construction company.  Company went under a year ago.  He just got a job as the day manager at a local Lowes.

This is the type of "job creation" we're seeing.  Better than nothing, but still...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:04 | 1124661 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Yep. One of my nephews was union electrician, no construction so he was laid off >2years ago. Now also working at Lowes for like 1/3 what he was making. Woohoo - dats a recovery there for ya.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:23 | 1124738 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I have a friend that was a Stock Broker and is not working at Home Depot.  Home Depot has cut his hours down to about 20 hours a week now.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:11 | 1124676 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I've called it "the great downsizing". Much fewer jobs available and the new ones being created are at much lower pay with far fewer benefits. 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:02 | 1124650 magpie
magpie's picture

King Dollar and Mr. Crude might just crash Ms. Market's Recovery Party today.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:09 | 1124678 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yep...I see that totally pissed off and depraved USD is rising.  Why ever would he do that?  Does he not know that his pound is the flesh that is driving Ben Bernanke's wildest dream recovery?

It is probably the case that too many of us have too much time on our hands to sit around and think about these things...even though employment is rocking.  And anyway, Ben and his merry gang are not done bear raiding the only thing of value we had left, our silver and gold, so we probably ought to just sign up and get back to work saving the global economy so that the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street can get back to eating caviar and telling us how and why things are so good:

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:44 | 1124827 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Mr. Dollar is clawing his way to the edge of the canyon but holding on is the trick with japan pulling his pants (heavily laden with treasuries) down around his ankles. Doesn't look good.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:47 | 1124841 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

A U.S. recruiter is hiring nuclear power workers in the United States to help Japan gain control of the stricken Fukushima Daiichi plant, which has been spewing radiation.

..."The qualifications: Skills gained in the nuclear industry, a passport, a family willing to let you go, willingness to work in a radioactive zone.

The rewards: Higher than normal pay and the challenge of solving a major crisis.

So far, the firm has already signed up some workers who will be flying to Japan on Sunday...

Melanson said there will be less than 10 workers in the initial group."




Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:14 | 1124689 Ghostbusters
Ghostbusters's picture

this bodes well for housing.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:15 | 1124690 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

But, but, but , ...... I thought this was a depression, the big one like Fred Sanford spoke of .... ?

I almost had my bunker dug and I have 3 tons of pepperoni on order, plus all these potatoes  ..... Lol'

Fred Attack

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1124732 tmosley
tmosley's picture

My god you are a government hack.

Didn't notice how many had to fall off of the employment rolls to achieve this "miracle", did you?  Of course not.  You have confirmation bias in the extreme.  This isn't even enough to handle all the new grads coming into the workforce who, never having been employed, don't get counted either.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1124828 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

My God, you are a dickweed. You wouldn't know a statistic if it bit you on your putrid bile green lips.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:48 | 1124849 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I thought he was a truck driver? 21st century version of the 20th century's shoe shine boy when it comes to market advice.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:23 | 1124740 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Amazing what trillions in deficit spending and trillions in stimulus money can do to make things look better on the surface.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:13 | 1124692 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

So are economic fundamentals ever going to matter again? Seems like they haven't in a long time.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:15 | 1124705 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

This is no different than other periods in market history when equities detach themselves from economic reality.  And we know what outcome has always been.  There are no new eras when it comes to the market.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:19 | 1124722 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

But silver being above its 60 year average of $ 7.00 is sane & rational ....

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1124736 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

There is something wrong with you.  You're way too emotional about this stuff.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:28 | 1124762 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

You noticed that too......haven't PM been manipulated lower intentionally? Dunno, just asking.......

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:37 | 1124806 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

he's an amateur. once the wise guys skin him (it may take a few times) he'll wise up.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:28 | 1124760 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

SIXTY year average?

It's one thing to be a troll, it's another to insult the intelligence of ZHers.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:01 | 1125777 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

lol, btfd, though it was only a short dip today

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:20 | 1124725 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

as that Nut case Ross P said " nafta will bring the third world pay to America"..

to think he was even close to the facts today those that called him a loon then were proved so correct but No..LOL

one eyed man in the land of the blind

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:15 | 1124698 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

The Fed's going tighten to slow down t his runaway economy!   The Bernanke means business!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:19 | 1124701 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

I wonder what Rosie is telling his subscription client(s) this April Fools day?


(note: subscriptions are 'non-refundable', Ira's no dummy)

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:15 | 1124703 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Erin "I obey the voice in my ear" Burnett puking up her green shoots jobs data bullshit. full steam ahead.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:17 | 1124712 Zina
Zina's picture

Even as Speaker John A. Boehner urged Republicans to keep in mind that they would have additional opportunities in the coming weeks to cut long-term spending, some members of his caucus said they would be willing to accept a government shutdown if necessary to back up their demand for $61 billion in cuts for the current fiscal year.

“That’s pretty small,” said Representative Jeff Flake, Republican of Arizona, referring to the $33 billion spending reduction that Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said Wednesday evening was the target generally agreed to by both parties. “This is visible. People see this. You’ve got to have some significant cuts.”

At a two hour-plus Tea Party rally outside the Capitol, some members, raising their fists to the chants of “Cut it or shut it,” suggested they would stand firm.

“It’s time to pick a fight,” said Representative Mike Pence, Republican of Indiana, one of his party’s more combative supporters of smaller government. He added, “If liberals in the Senate would rather play political games and shut down the government instead of making a small down payment on fiscal discipline and reform, I say, ‘Shut it down.’ “


All this talk about shutdowns is getting so interesting...

I wonder what a shutdown means in terms of a missing bond payment, and what that means in terms of Credit Default Swaps...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:26 | 1124745 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

This is more of that "pretend to be fighting " to look give appearance of two parties and validate their jobs having a purpose. To think they are pretending to not be capable of cutting a paltry 60 billion given the size of our expenditures is an insult. Hysterical that the Repubs are now appealing to Democrats since the few Tea Party fiscal conservatives want even more cuts. Now they can split the difference at 50 billion and tout what great compromisers working in solidarity they are and demonize those pesky constitutionalists.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1125031 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:20 | 1124716 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Reports of minimum wages increases in China. More excellent news for inflation and eroding profit margins for the state side corporations.
Nothing a little birth death cannot repair however.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:20 | 1124719 ss123
ss123's picture


Just so I understand this correctly, if the labor participation rate was 0%, would the unemployment rate then be 0%?


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:29 | 1124772 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

You got it upside down -- it would be100%

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1124812 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:20 | 1124727 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

In a sensational interview  President Barack Obama provided some deep insight into the monetary system: "The dollar is just an illusion" - the US currency was actually not worth anything.

Specifically, Obama explained that the trigger for the financial crisis - the subprime crisis - wasn't actually a US-specific problem, but was a problem of the monetary system itself. This system involved compound interest effects that caused more and more debt, which in turn made it necessary to search for ever more debtors. The logical consequence therefore was that even people who were not credit-worthy were being lent huge amounts of dollars. Literally, Obama said: "Our money is an illusion."

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:36 | 1124803 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

April 1st . . .

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1124743 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Can someone clarify the Birth/Death adjustment?  It's something to do with new business filings, right?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:32 | 1124781 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

They literally just conjure up a number to creation the illusion of improvement.

Sweep the leg and put reality in a bodybag Johnny.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:00 | 1125109 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's a number they create to signify the amount of new businesses born and how many old businesses have died off. Of course the number magically gets higher and higher every month.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1124746 ColoradoNugget
ColoradoNugget's picture

Bear markets are born on the euphoria of wonderful news, just as this "bulls*T" market was born on the backs of the despair of financial Armageddon.  That we have rallied to post-2008 highs on no volume, ignoring weak datapoints along the way, and now continue to rally on a cosmetically appealing datapoint tells me that the "egg is hatched" for the next bear phase, if not the baby already born.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1124749 johny2
johny2's picture

More irrelevant economic data. 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1124752 magpie
magpie's picture

Not an April's Fool, sadly.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:30 | 1124758 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Turd is first in line for crow soup ...........

January 21, 2011

So, here's my promise to you. Gold will trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11. If I'm wrong, I'm shutting down this blog and going away, never to be heard from again as I will have proven myself to be of little value. If I'm right...well, let's just say it would be perfectly appropriate for you to hit the "Feed The Turd" button every day for the rest of your life.

April 1, 20011


Anyone who tries to tell you that QE is about economic growth and avoiding deflation is either:
1) St-st-st-stupid
2) Dangerously clueless
3) Manipulatively trying to sell you something
or 4) just a status quo-loving hack/moron

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:36 | 1124801 AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

You honestly think that QE is going to end? You clearly don't understand the conundrum this economy is in. QE ends - higher rates - higher private/public interest costs - more borrowing - higher rates. In the case of the treasury market, this could mean a couple hundred basis points higher just as an innitial response. Given that the fed is taking down a trillion of issuance a year now, one has to wonder what rates will be without that type of fake demand. Maybe QE will "end" for a couple months, only to be started again in response to the market crash that will precipitously follow.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1124825 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

it wouldn't surprise me in the least for silver and gold to reverse today and set new all time highs. probably won't happen. but given the economic state of affairs in the usa anything is possible.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:44 | 1124831 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You go ahead and bet your life on QE ending.

You are such a jealous little shit, you know that?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:27 | 1124766 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Over the last 12 months the population grew by an average 153,000 per month....employment grew on average 76,000 per month.....the labor force declined an average 41,000 per month.....not in the labor force increase by 194,000 per month.

And where in there is any good news?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:32 | 1124787 agNau
agNau's picture

Look's like one HUGE H & S top. Wonder where we will base?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:47 | 1124854 Kina
Kina's picture

How long before they send out death squads to enhance the decline in the participation rate? Its everyone's patriotic duty to resign and not look for a job and quietly starve themselves to death or join the crew at Fukushima Daiichi.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:10 | 1124932 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:44 | 1125460 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

People who rely on these periodic NFP annoucements to divine the path of "progress" of our economy are foolish. 

What is the driver of any new employment right now? There is nothing. Best you can hope for is stasis, and measure some amount of fluctuations around that point.  That is all that is going on. Oil going up will diminish margins and funds for job creation.  Stagflation.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:04 | 1125526 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I'm in agreement with Zeppelin on this, you can look around you and see that nothing is happening. I see countless rent / lease / sale signs and empty buildings, some with weeds around them from last year. We're going nowhere.

We rely too much on something that's provided by a bureau whose only incentive is to make the chief executive look better...and perhaps pacify the masses who don't see beyond the number to the underlying participation rate etc.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 23:59 | 1127372 natew
natew's picture

Another slightly skewed chart.  Where is the baby boomer adjusted calculations?  

Of the total 239 million possible people, the growth from 2000 to today, is around 11-12%.  But for ages 16-60, the growth was 9%, and 60 and over, 19%.   Most of the growth is the baby boomer esntering the 60 and over.

This can be confirmed by the number of people not in the labor force.  Of the 85 million not in labor force, almost 50% is from the ages 60+.

Apply that by the percentage of workforce 16 and over, the 60 and over sub-group gained 2% on the potential work force.  So of the 3% drop shown on the chart, around 2% was probably on the 60 and over category. 

Now the question is, of the 60+, how many are retiring when they wanted or instead are retiring early and taking SS or pension as soon as possible?  And how does this affect SS and pensions?   Even worse, what happens in 10-15 years when many personal retirement funds dry up due to entering retirement early?  I'm guessing a 50% increase in Medicaid, breaking the $1 trillion mark by 2020-2025.

Not to discount the baby boomers, but long term jobs are in the 16-60 range, where the participation rate probably has declined closer to the .5% to 1% range.


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