Courtesy of Finviz, the ratio of insider buying to selling transactions is 5 to 145. Total transaction value: Buys: $13.4 million; Sells: $1,042 million. At least insiders are feeling (or its dyslexic equivalent, fleeing) the new bull market.
ht YY
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on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 10:38
#29120
hey they bought 13 million you perma-bear. A bear market rally is only when the insider buy-sell ratio is over 1 to 1000.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 10:39
#29122
Heh...
No worries here..
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:00
#29156
Thanks RobotTrader.
And yes, you rock.
I think you opened a Pandora's box here with your Beavis and Butt-head gif.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:04
#29161
Hey, my gif didn't work. Curses.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:52
#29233
JPM is only 20% from all time highs. Incredible.
Dimon to Blankfein, whilst both stuff a handful of billion dollar Kennedy Bonds into a strippers g-string: "How you like me now, huh? HOW YOU LIKE ME NOW?!?"
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 13:00
#29393
Don't forget BEN
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 10:42
#29126
stupid sexy SKF!!! It's like that hot chick at the bar after a couple of drinks, I think to myself, maybe this time will be different...grrrrrrrrrrrr
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:25
#29192
If SKF was that hot chick, FAZ was the triplets with cleavage that looked like you could get lost in there. I swore off FAZ this week, I'm thinking it will go down another 10-20% before it turns.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:45
#29223
Oooh, better get some antibiotics for that rash. Do you have pain on passing water?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 10:54
#29146
Not sure I have ever seen anything definitive about insider sales/purchases and stock market direction. I agree it is intuitive, but has anyone actual proven the correlation?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:08
#29170
what do you mean by "proven the correlation"?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:17
#29184
Show that when insiders sell, the stock in question - or in the case above, the market - then declines
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:27
#29196
just look at Bezos ... the man sold almost 2% of his stock in AMZN ... if that doesn't flash a light above your head then i really have no answer for you .... of course there is correlation ... they have insider information and REAL data, not the fabricate one that we the peasants get .. they know its gonna tank so they sold something to ease the fall and maybe buy back those shares at a lower price ..
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:38
#29213
Almost 2%! Wow.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:42
#29217
in the span of 2 fucking days that's tells you a lot my friend ...
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 13:02
#29397
I think I counted 5 IBM Vice-President's selling. Not good.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:37
#29210
Nah, insiders are just like everyone else for the most part. They can't believe the market is up this high, and they are selling to salvage some value from the destruction of this past year.
Doesn't mean the market will go down.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 13:06
#29405
Yeah, right...
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:05
#29256
isn't that the purpose of selling? you sell shortly before - or ideally at - the top. If those guys are indeed "talent" than you will find a strong correlation.
you will also find a strong correlation if they are not talent, but act on insider information.
If you don't find a strong correlation here, then the guys are just average people and could be replaced very quickly.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:15
#29276
last time the ratio got this high, was? you guessed it, late '07. think about it.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 13:17
#29436
Do not confuse political skills (required to climb the corp ladder) with market understanding. The only ones who truly understand the market are those who are currently manipulating it. But they wont tell you. Or, as it goes in some circles(to add some suspense to the drama;-), "We could tell you, sir, but then we'd have to kill you"...
They sell because they see what we see- that current market is way overbought (i.e. totally disconnected from reality, i.e. their corp's future earnings) but so what ?
As John Maynard Keynes once famously remarked "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:42
#29219
Nothing is definitive, and if it ever was it surely is not in this new rigged casino. But ZH continues to point out key individual data points, and what it could possibly imply. I don't have access to all the incredible data posted here, and am very grateful.
Now how Mr. Market, er, Mr. Goldie responds or doesn't to such data, well, theres the rub, aye?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 10:54
#29147
Like I said before, this rally has at least until the end of this month before Eraser Head stops f*cking with the market.
I am thinking that Eraser Head will get Buffett off the hook and run the market up to 14,000 by the end of the month.
To add insult to injury, then the SEC will ban all shorting, and the president will call shorting "unpatriotic".
The only winner when this is all done will be Goldman Sachs.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 13:22
#29448
Is Geithner the EraserHead ?
What makes you think he will stop f*cking with the market at the end of this month ?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 10:58
#29153
Stocks soaring in banks, real estate, home builders and trasports.
Surely professional money managers are aware of the tidal wave of insider selling.
Conclusion: The rottenest companies and most overbought stocks are going up due to continued engineering of sell signals and vicious short squeezing.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:01
#29158
Conclusion: Insiders couldn't care less about anything GS, CNBC, etc have to say. They also don't agree with their own reported guidance.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:04
#29162
there is a terrifyingly strong bid @ SPY 101.50
someone just wont let it die. bulls & bears alike, beware.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:38
#29214
are you flashing orders into the dark pool @ 101.50?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:05
#29167
I must disagree with the thinking that the markets will crash. I actually think the the DOW is heading to 13000 by oktober. Purely because of the inflationary effect of the stimulus. So unless the FED is able to pull that money out of the market, we will start seeing inflation kicking in this year at 10 to 15%.
Also the rise in banks explains this, especcialy the banks with the largest debts
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:28
#29198
"...the DOW is heading to 13000 by oktober. Purely because of the inflationary effect of the stimulus..."
This is also consistent with gold staying at an elevated level. Normally, when the stock market rises, the word on the street is that buyers have beocome more "risk averse" and thus dump gold for stocks. If it is an inflationary reaction, then gold and stocks can rise together. Not sure how the latest trend to use equities as a US carry trade play into this.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:32
#29205
Purely because of the inflationary effect of the stimulus
what inflationary effect ... there is no money in the pipelines, the credit markets are frozen, there is no demand no nothing ... no way will inflationary cycle cause the Dow to go to 13000, blatant manipulation and lies yes, inflation cycle; well no ... and rise in the banks is easily explained by the fact that they marked their toxic crap to imaginary level, and hidden FED support in case there is any trouble ..
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:46
#29225
It would appear that the money is certainly getting traction in the equities market. Granted, Joe 6P is not benefitting but the banks running up stocks sure are.
Every day that goes by I become more determined that this thing is not going down until some big "stoppage" event. Until the lights turn off somewhere, people are NOT going to get it. I mean massive cascading cross-defaults, minimum.
Fundamentals and technicals no longer matter when the printing presses are blowing up this new bubble.
Just my opinion as an amateur.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:52
#29234
"Granted, Joe 6P is not benefitting but the banks running up stocks sure are" You sure are right on that one, thanks for caring.
www.JoeSixPack
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:54
#29235
true that is getting traction in the equities markets, but that has nothing to do with the economy ... the main street is hungry for credit, and people also + u have app. 25 million people who are unemployed, unemployed with no benefits etc, + XX million of those who took a pay cut ... and that simply is not an inflationary environments, no matter what ... that equations spells deterioration ( stagnation in best case scenario) and deflation in the short term .. in the long run ( 1-5 yrs ) no one knows, inflation definitely, hyperinflation; i don't think so ... but again, the equity markets can not create an inflationary cycle in the economy because the money that circulates in the equity markets circulates in a closed loop ...
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:57
#29238
No one cares about what's not on the news. By the time this is over, every small business will be bankrupt, and we'll all be working for the AIGs of the world. They will have an infinite supply of cash to keep the lights on.
These games will continue until something happens that can not be covered up. I don't know what that will be. It may never happen.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:02
#29248
By the time this is over, every small business will be bankrupt, and we'll all be working for the AIGs of the world. They will have an infinite supply of cash to keep the lights on.
we call this " strategic consolidation trough hostile takeover "
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:22
#29294
bank lending has been contracting every week. without credit growth, there can be no economic growth. the equity market does not create economic reality. the equity market going up does not change the non-performance of loans in the real world in every financial institution. the equity market going up does not change resets of the horrendous option-ARMs. the equity market going up does not stop 100s of thousands from rolling off unemployment benefits. and the equity markets going up do NOT stop states from being bankrupt, and sovereigns from devaluing their currencies.
for all of those who think this is real, look at what you are doing in real life and ask yourself when the last time you paid full price for something was? look around at your friends and colleagues and see how great a time they are having.
most of all, pull your heads out of your arses and look at real life and think for yourself.
as Art Cashin put it today, "you own a factory. you fired 50k people in June. You fired 20k in July. Yes, you fired less, but does that mean things are better and you're ready to hire? No f*cking way." (clearly i paraphrase)
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:31
#29312
all true Grizzly-Oso, all true +1
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:59
#29391
Option ARMs can explode but if the banks never foreclose and don't mark the losses, no one knows.
Joe 6P loses his job but unless he can buy time on the nightly news, no one cares.
...this can go on for a very long time.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 16:09
#29719
That's right, I just call it a takeover. Wallstreetpro had it right when he said that the banks aren't lending money because the Fed is paying them interest on deposits - so why take risks or lend to competitors of your friends.
The bankers did the exact same thing in the great depression. They ended up picking up more assets at pennys on the dollar and eliminating their competitors.
The capstone on top of the pyramid is the printing press and it needs to be toppled. States & businesses can't compete against a printing press - it will win every time as long as you play within this fixed system where everyone is dependent on their printing press.
Build your own printing presses you spineless US states (Arnold's IOU's - perhaps a step in the right direction).
on Wed, 08/19/2009 - 08:06
#40915
I agree with your analysis and would add that there is no inflationary or hyperinflationary impact of the Fed printing money since the amount of money being printed is a drop in the bucket compared to the trillions of dollars destroyed in the deflation of the credit bubble, housing equity, and IRA/401(k)s. The destruction of money with the various bubbles popping or at least deflating far exceeds the money being created out of thin air. And this deflation of the various bubbles still has a long way to run. It is not over! In spite of the fed's focus on preventing deflation, it may be impossible. The baby boomers, who are nearing retirement age, have been decimated; any stimulus that actually eventually reaches them (which will be little since that "stimulus" was mostly pork and social re-engineering - will be saved to offset losses in home equity, retirement funds, etc. Inflation would require spending.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:08
#29264
Stocks do not do well in a high inflation environment (such as the 10-15% you are describing). It's too difficult to have any reasonable forecast of profits, revenue, wages, etc. They are good performers when there is low, steady inflation (or deflation, interestingly) in the neighborhood of +/- 2%. All else equal, of course.
To say nothing of the fact that we are in a deflationary environment, not inflationary.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:15
#29278
Follow up to my own postdirectly above. Can we please stop throwing the 'hyperinflation' term around? The original poster didn't, but I see it used way to casually. There are a couple of definitions that are commonly used and they all something like: double-digit rate per month, or 100% over 3 years, etc.
We aren't going to hit those levels, the Fed will never let it happen, and throwing the term around like we're headed there is rather silly.
Not to say we won't see inflation at some point, that's not my point. But 10-12% a month for many months in a row?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:07
#29168
The stock market is a merchandising operation. Market makers buy low in volume, run the prices up, distribute stock and sell it short. Hang tight for another month, by then the only bears will the market makers, fleecing everyone they can.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:16
#29183
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS.LN), the 70% state-owned U.K. bank, Friday dampened hopes that banks have turned a corner in the financial crisis, saying its earnings may not recover much until 2011 and that loan losses will remain high.
(results were out today)
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:18
#29185
Today bears give up on what seems to be extremely good news on jobs front, but if you did into the actual numbers yet again it is all smoke and mirrors.
So will insiders use this bull trap to sell into even more?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:25
#29191
Baghdad Bob got a job at the BLS and sideline cash remains so.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:20
#29188
Equities are too busy to look at the long term bonds (after a decade of Greenspan it is quiet justified)
Now interest rates are no longer a luxury but a necessity. Too many debts, bad debts, borrowers, bad borrowers competing for a reduced pool of savings worldwide (save China).
The real story is there equities are the tails.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:22
#29189
unemployment rate should be 9.7, BLS simply stopped counting
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/jobs-contract-19th-straight-month.html
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:26
#29195
"What likely can’t last, though, is the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, which was due entirely to a 422,000 drop in the labor force…" –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
but the 'O' man is pleased today
so funny
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:27
#29197
short the stock market hard
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:31
#29204
"
US equities have just come off their best July since 1989. Overall, the market is up over 8% for the year.
But if we look backward (after all, hindsight is 20/20), March 1989 also saw a huge run up. It was followed by an even stronger rally in July, during which volume dried up. It appears the same is happening now. What came next in 1989 was a big sell-off in September, followed by an even greater one in October."
http://dailyreckoning.com/illogical-optimisim/
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:42
#29218
There are also some unprecedented market forces and interventions now that weren't present in 1989.
I will be surprised if we see the same pattern... now if I just knew which direction...
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:44
#29222
Gates and Bezos are constantly selling. Their sales are not news.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:50
#29230
Vanna, can we buy this man a clue? The article wasn't about Gates or Bezos, it was about the ratio of total insider buying vs. selling.
Instead of captcha, can we get a reading comprehension entry?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:59
#29240
is it just me, or has anyone else noticed that the name Michael Dell does not appear on that list ... he is a constant seller of his stocks, and i find this strange ... couple of days ago i have red an article about how Dell might be a takeover target by one of the large PE ... dunno .. just my 2 cents ... but it would not surprise me if Schwartzman tries to buy that sucker ...
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:35
#29329
thanks for sharing
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:04
#29253
looks like insider capitulation..haha
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:12
#29270
Never bet against the house.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:25
#29298
I assume that anyone putting anything into the stock market, including fund managers are aware that they are not investing. Right?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 13:23
#29449
when times get stuff, which i believe they will continue to be, use all of craigslist
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 13:23
#29452
http://www.allofcraigs.com (forgot the link)
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 14:13
#29556
Retained Earnings take another hit from the mob:)
Most here have "service" envy:)
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 14:47
#29617
just an fyi - many insiders were locked up due to earnings the past few weeks...its tough to analyze week over week especially during earnings
as somsone who watches this stuff closely, this sort of selling strength started in june and has not gotten better
AKAM was the best buying in the last 30-60 days. nothing else is even close
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 15:57
#29707
The market is propped to instill confidence, let insiders sell & get off the ship in lifeboats, and improve banks financials as their robots sell securities to each other at ever increasing prices (recording a growth in profit and assets). The disparity between reality and the market is becoming untenable - when credibility is gone the illusion will be broken and a crisis of confidence will ensue.
The market is a black box, invest in hard assets not duplicate paper receipts for hyped up future earnings that are promised tomorrow (by the same people selling their shares today). Tomorrow is always a day away.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 16:10
#29720
When all those who lost their jobs get them back, when all the full timers who were cut to part time get their full time hours back, then I will start believing in a "recovery".
Until then, forget it.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 22:30
#30057
Some of the money feeding into the market before the big extraction is coming from pensions like mine. The choices I get are bad stocks or collapsing banks, their are no good or even better choices and I can't get my money out or to a safer place. I can only watch while I along with I'm sure many others watch as our retirements are being looted, without one stinking congressperson trying to put a halt to this criminal theivery. How sad, trailer parks and tents for honest people who worked their entire lives, fought their wars, paid politcal salary's and benefits in perpetuity for this criminal class of government "representitives, while aiding their banker sponsers to steal our itty bitty little nest eggs! May the U.S. government {except for a minute few, R.P. etc.} burn in hell! Frank
on Sun, 08/09/2009 - 05:21
#30788
Time for the doom n gloomers to chime in.. invest in long-term assets now while you still have the opportunity.. Silver, gold, weapons, food. Purchase peace of mind, ridding yourself of the lies of our manipulated currency at a time when the truth is becoming more difficult for the TPTB to cover up. What once was insane conspiracy theory is now reality, get out of the dollar.
on Sun, 08/09/2009 - 05:35
#30790
lol ... if you think that gold and silver are not manipulated .... they can crash the dollar, the equities, the T-bills and the commodities all in the same time...
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