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Last Ditch Push To Close NASDAQ Green Succeeds
The Liberty 33 folks succeed in breaking the Nasdaq's 12 day losing streak in a 10 minutes no holds barred, rabid buying spree. The market is once again fully credible.
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Same on SPX. If that wasn't a manipulative stick save, I don't know what one is.
TD, can we get a volume chart for ES up to close?
Market was/is technically oversold in the short-term. There are non-confirmations for the move below 1025 ranging from the vix to tick data.
Oh and btw, ES volume into the close was at the highest level of the day, rivaling volume at the open (also coincidentally an up move)...
Oversold - like real estate in Florida, right?
Similarly to my AUD/JPY point that you conveniently failed to reply to earlier, was ES buy volume higher at the beginning and end of the trading day OR am I wrong about that as well?
Theres no such thing as oversold/overbought, CNBS typical bullshit for the bathrobe brigades at home. Dont be such a fucking moron.
Ah you're right, there's no such "thing" professor Merton.
When fundamentals all point to an overvalued market, oversold technical indicators do not mean shit. Look at BP from April 20 to Friday.
What fundamentals pointed to BP being overvalued? As I understand, an accident caused BP's price to halve. Are you stupid, or am I missing something?
I am talking about the technicals vs fundamentals, or are you too stupid to read? You are obviously so high on your horse you cannot see anything in front of you. Just keep living like that. Your MBA has taught you oh so much.
I guess I'm too stupid to make the connection between technical/fundamental analysis and the BP accident.
Please explain where you see the connection?
Once Deep Horizion took a shit, fundamentals said overvalued for the entire decline, but technicals would point to oversold moments. The connection is that there is not one, and that to state that oversold/undersold as a primary indicator would be false. One has to look at the underlying factors for the movements both macro and micro. Using a technical indicator is about as accurate as VAR modeling. Yes technical indicators have been useful, especially since more and more people moved to algo trading, but with out true support then the indicators will fail on 6 sigma levels.
Buddy, anyone with half of a brain understands that all analysis (technical and even fundaental) get thrown out of the window when a catastrophe such such deep horizon happens. The objective is to run for the doors. That's like the equivalent of comparing the Lehman collapsing to the value of the S&P - Ain't nobody worried about whether the market is over or undervalued at that point...
I was simply stating that the market was SHORT-TERM oversold after last week (the move on tues and today seems to back up my analysis). My call falls closer in the realm of comparing a shaky earnings statement and after 8 days of heavy selling, deciding whether to stay short or jump in long...
You obviously do not have enough experience to understand this. maybe instead of bashing me for offering an alternative perspective, expand your horizons and maybe you could learn a thing or two.
Bless good old American 'know how' and HFT quant controlled algos!
On that note OutLooksIn:
Generally I'm not much of a fan of 'Hot Karl' Denninger, but is the following shit for real??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOr5suFJ6-k&feature=player_embedded
Er NM, already been covered. My bad.
I don't get it. Really. Why continue to delay the inevitable. Fuck, aren't the big boys out of their long positions by now? Don't they need it to go down to justify more QE?
Why continue to do this more and more blatantly? Why risk the very shred of integrity (cough) that still exists?
Give me a fucking break. So, by making it even more extremely obvious that it's rigged, that's supposed to convince more retailers to jump in.
This is like modern day 3 card monte. How many times is the 'lucky' guy going to have to find the Queen before the rube / mark steps up and plays? The problem is, if he's too luck for too long, even the rube knows it's a fucking scam.
Man...we must be close to the end.
I just read the other day that retail trades are only 3% of total market. Who's left? Prop desk vs. prop desk?
It is in the best interest of the USA to keep the markets up. People are already not spending money. Imagine how it will be when the markets finally correct. It will be ugly, and people will be very unhappy that their 401K are worth a fraction of what they used to be worth.
Does anyone remember the Fed hiring all those traders?
It absolutely is not in the best interst of keeping the markets 'up'. The more this gets exposed as an absurd scam the less likely anyone will touch it ever again. I understand the populist vision of why it's 'good' but, shit, it isn't working. The wealth effect isn't playing out on the masses. They just don't buy the bullshit. So, why keep shoveling more bullshit on them? Now, you're just making it worse long term.
My conclusion is the USA destructors have gotten cold feet, theyre scared of the people, 100 million gun owners stocked up on tons of ammo. This is not a game, at some point people will start shooting. Believe that.
I love the conspiracy theories as much as the next guy, but if 33 Liberty was all that, we would have never been down 9 straight sessions, right?
Never underestimate hedge funds and IB's prop desks unwinding long positions.
ZH's bloggers cry manipulation, 33 liberty, hal900, fraud, blah, blah, blah at every up-tick while 99.5% of them have zero first-hand experience working on a trade desk.
If that doesn't constitute ignorance and group think, then I don't know what does. This site has become the bearish version of CNBC. It is really unfortunate because this site has some top notch content minus the subjective "manipulation" commentary and comments...
Maybe you're just crying ignorance and stupidity in eloquent words. Close your eyes tighter - hear no evil, see no evil, right? I'm sure the run up today was due to valid reasons (e.g. - Abiggs buying up everything in the hours before the stock market started and the few minutes before it closed). In other words, if you don't like the site, go back to CNBC since we're too sensitive to your bullish needs.
You reinforce my point - utter ignorance. I never said that I was bullish nor do I care to read cnbc. All I ever sated was that the technicals point to a SHORT-TERM oversold condition in the market and that bloggers such as yourself are retarded. I state objective points while you throw around the zh "bull" insults.
BTW you never got back to me on my ES and AUD/JPY divergence comment earlier. I guess google finance doesn't provide real time futures and currency charts...
Again, you have succeeded at making my point for me.
We all can't work at Citadel.....
I, for one, find it wonderful to have a fresh perspective around here for a change. Maybe you can share your first hand knowledge of how much retail trading is going on and whether or not more fence sitters are buying equities and moving away from their cash positions or getting back into the market and so forth?
Oh mighty trader tell us your stories from the Lehman bonds desk.
The SEC watches porn and blogger Denninger watches fraud: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOr5suFJ6-k&feature=player_embedded
Makes sense to me. Abiggs, 70% of trading is done by high freq algo boxes, dark pools and prop desks. Go watch Dennis Kneale the optimist - I'm sticking to 0 hedge for my news.
"Makes sense to me. Abiggs, 70% of trading is done by high freq algo boxes, dark pools and prop desks"
Thanks for sharing this original and highly confidential piece of information Davo...
You guys never fail to surprise me! You definitely failed the following directions and summarizing what you read test back in school. Can you please point me to where I said that I support and read CNBC or where I said ZH was a bad news source?
What you are implying is that technicalities are the end all be all. Did you stop and think for a second why desks have been unwinding a lot of risk lately? Maybe the technicals are not correct on their calculus. It is too hard even with Mandelbrot's model to emulate randomness (which I hope you do not subscribe to the EMH as your professors like to tout). You can go long on your technicals for the short-term and I will sit short for the long term.
How's that short position looking; roughly 1200 S&P points later?
You sure know how to pick a market top...
excuse me, and your qualifications are?
MBA in Poli Sci
LMAO
when the goldman prop desk has something like four loosing trading days in a year how can you think the thing isn't manipulated
I totally agree with you Abiggs, you haven't a clue what constitutes ignorance, though a mirror might help. On the other hand I'm betting arrogance is your strongest suit as you have it in spades. Bonne chance!
Regards
Why is the market going up, can someone please explain it? Everything everywhere shows we are clearly sliding into a depressionary cycle, so what sense is there in a manipulated and overvalued market?
These folks must have a reason, but I fail to see it?
more buyers than sellers.
yeah, lots of 'dem $100,000 bids
Honestly, it's not like these numbers mean anything anymore.
Besides, when the only people in the market are a bunch of HAL 9000's trading the same POS back and forth on zero volume, ramping the S&P up 10-handles in the last 45-minutes of the trading day after a holiday is child's play for these pros.
I went to bed last nigh when the Dow futures were -46, pleasently pleased. I wake up this morning and see them at +105. I think the funniest part about was the Marketwatch search for an explanation on why Dow Futuures were up three digit. Then it came down to Austrailia. Did they have a quick chalkboard?
"Anyone have ANY good news to explain this shit?"
" My Car Insurance went down"
"I got laid last night"
"Come'on we need to sound knowledgeable"
"Well there was some minor good news on Austrailia that I caught when I was fucking around with my iPad"
"Good Job. Good thinking Good teamwork. Go with it. You got the headline this morning"
"I do?" she asks weekly
"Better you than me, man I wouldn't want to be standing under the comments on that one"
Unreal. Fucking world is coming apart and the futures are up like the Fed found a extra 50 basis points under the couch to cut
ya... i slept well-woke up pissed off as a mother
Amen, same thing... I was so pissed of I kicked a hole in a door...
Don't you people ever look at anything but daily charts? Examine any major market drop during major recessions and you will always find these seemingly inexplicable up days. There are idiots who will "buy the dips" all the way to the bottom.
If all this is manipulation, who is footing the bill for it? That's what I'd like to know.
the problem was the -10 to + fuckin 30 on the S&P was on like 45 contracts... that is manipulation? the manipulation was at the endof the day not at night...
Why don't you ask Abiggs? He seems to have all the answers.
I don't usually double post. I've been wasting years making comments. You guys better check under the hood.
Consider it window dressing. Consider it make-up.
Anything that will impress the people that the doom & gloom economists have it all wrong all the time.
The banks are too big to fail. What about the media and government complex? Advertising, marketing or propaganda is a costly undertaking but it is required to keep the people "informed".
A market crash is just not permissable. It would start a vicious cycle of decreased spending and depressed citizens. It's better to keep the lie up and the illusion that all is not lost.
Question is, how many people are still believing the lies and how many people pretend they do believe but are taking precautions and prepare for the fallout that will inevitably come one day. Few admit that manipulation is going on for there is a big price to pay and their credibility is ruined.
Double post, sorry.
I particularly enjoyed the last minute of trading. Quite the show; almost better than the neighborhood fireworks display on Sunday.
I have actually been stunned at how LITTLE upside the market has seen since the end of April. Look at long-term charts and you'll see very few times the market has declined at this rate.
For all the cursing and claims of manipulation during the March 2009-April 2010 rally, isn't it odd that the PPT has suddenly lost so much control? Or maybe they weren't really in control after all . . . it just seemed that way until everyone decided they weren't?
Manipulation leads to instability leads to increased manipulation leads to increased instability leads to blatant manipulation leads to collapse.
It's like trying to regain your balance on a tightrope; the gesticulations get wilder and wilder before the fall.
Let's wait until after the market closes and it is goosed up 50+ point within 5 minutes to tell everyone that mortgage delinquencies are on the rise again.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-Loan-Delinquencies-on-the-cnbc-3973491...
Nice catch!
Well, this entire day was a joke. I was never worried at any time about the initial morning surge attempt to shake out the shorts & show all is well. I took off my stops, nearly doubled down on BGZ and FAZ near the top of the day, and am still well green now on both even after the stick-save. Going to wait & see how the morning looks before putting the stops in again.
IMHO, the battle for 1040 was utterly lost by the bulls today. The rest of the news is all noise, IMO.
Also - another nice opp to buy PHYS at 11.50 ... which seems to be a strong support.
THE 1040 selloff was the only news of the day...
yep.. a stunning rebuff of the obvious effort to turn the tide.
There is no real stick save unless they can get the SPX to close above 1040.
Otherwize we're jus bouncing in a channel.
I stand corrected - you are right. It was all sizzle, and no steak.
yup... see the 10yr yield for confirmation on what direction we are heading... hmmm bear flags are a bitch
My Tin Foil Hat was missing until 3:30 ,,, glad I found it
When it goes missing they know it went missing.
They're probably water boarding your fondest childhood memories right this minute.
Did anyone notice the headline "Urugay vs. Netherlands 1:3" on the ticket a few minutes before the third goal actually scored? Maybe it was their mistake, maybe it was manipulation or maybe I dreamed that.
glitch in the Matrix
Just to play devils advocate for a minute, The market was oversold after last week, Asia tried to take it lower on the Tokyo open but it didn't work. So we had a nice rally in Europe and dow futs (s+p's whatever you like) b4 the open. After the open the dow drifter higher and then went fairly bid even after the weak ISM numbers. THEN it had a decent sell off! So agreeing that people or machines try to mess around with the last few minutes b4 the close I would say today was a draw. I'm a bearish but realise it won't be a straight line down.
Wow at least someone on this site has a mind of their own - I thought you didn't exist anymore.
Dude; dont generalize so much. Everyone with 2 functioning brain cells said it was a technical bounce when futures went into the green and called for a tech-bounce when NIKKEI, HSI and SSE maintained an up-day. Now; many cry manipulation due to Pavlov' effect on those [rare] days when market behaves somewhat normally [not today]. Everyone was expecting an up day due to various reasons, but mostly technical.
What happened during the trading hours, I dont know; but this closing in the green was anything but normal. Intraday put/call ratio surged to 2.63; the average is 0.5xx; thats not a normal daily movement; and constant volatility in p/c-R is either a) indication 99% people trading the market are morons with severe ADD b) there is some weird shit going on. You chose; but dont make generalization such as you did now; many here can make a difference between a day that experienced "normal trading" and days like this one.
Intraday swings like this one when VXX price volatility is 10% is not an indication of "normally" traded market.
My apologies if you thought that I was referring to you. I guess you fall under the .05% that actually have a clue and can discern the truth from the bs. I know that you've been on this site since 2008 and no have doubt you know your shi*t judging by your commentary. Unfortunately readers such as homersimpson have made this site the typical commercially attractive, group-think anti-capitalist source where the valid information gets lost in "manipulation/anti gs/algo" bs.
Even you have to admit, the quality of content on ZH has been deteriorating over the years. Your opinion might differ, but I see it mostly as a product of trying to apeal to the group think masses characterized by homersimpson-like readers and I am just sick of it - I want the old ZH back!
The posts [Tyler's and the contributors that is] are the same/better; what changed is that with more knowledge people became more angrier. I dont blame them for that; what I do find irritating is that, apparently, everyone is emotionally attached to the movements in this market; which is beyond what I will comment on. Im not on this site from 08, but from 09 [as a registered member] and I learned a lot of things here; most didnt; or did but did not expand on that knowledge with the underlying technicals. I understand the rage, the need to "do something" but that somehow transformed from an honorable cause to shouting. Which is a shame.
Lets take off the "the end is neigh" placards guys. It's a market and will be so for a while, have a look at the Nikkei in the 90's or the dow in the 30's. Two way risk is back, the fast crash was 2008 before most investors realised what was going on, now most do, and if you missed that then that's too bad, making money being bearish will take more time. This doesnt mean you are wrong just that you will have to wait longer for it to be profitable. It's in your best interest it hangs around because you can make some money. And for those of you wanting the sky to fall just remember it only falls once so be careful what you wish for.
Looks like a MBA in Poli Sci with a side job at the door of Le Circ
"MBA in Poli Sci"
I rest my case...
The news from Germany was bullish. I haven't heard or seen anyone report on this here. The manufacturing sector is booming there. They have to hire more people, putting extra shifts on and revenues will be good. That stuck out to me after reading all the bearish reports from the US to Asia. The Australia thing is so not important. What the fuck is Australia anyway in the big picture. A desert island with commodities.
Both the DOW and the S&P and particularly the Nasdaq showed tremendous signs of weakness, even stress at one point. I don't see anything oversold at these levels. That would suggest stocks are cheap, which they're not at 12 or 15 x P/E. Dividend play may work for some until next year but if there's a crunch, the companies will have to preserve cash and forgo their dividends.
Going into Q3 and Q4 without further stimulus is a flat or slowly unwinding market at best and a few days with flash crashes at worst. Either way the genie is out of the bottle and refuses to go back.
The news from Germany is a doctored bullishness, Australia was about as fantastic as when the Chinese "unpegged" the Yuan, and the technicals may point to oversold (if you do subscribe to such things as RSI, Bollinger Bands, Aroon, et al.) but make no mistake that they are just simple mathematical equations that some follow Gaussian methods. Well we have already seen that leptokurtosis is a real problem that is hard to truely quantify, and is truly an end all be all.
A simple fundamental analysis will show that the market has not sold enough. We will see another QE here shortly, and I for one look forward the the failed bids on that since too many know our problem will be to repay what we have already taken out. Additionally poplulation growth rates have actually been on the decline ( sorry no nifty Bloomberg graphics http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:...) so why should our economy not deflate to sustainable levels comparable to populations (I know I am going way out on a limb for saying that)?
Can you please summarize this "A simple fundamental analysis will show that the market has not sold enough"?
I am NOT being sarcastic, I honestly want to understand how to make this sort of analysis so I can quickly and convincingly value a market fundamentally.
Thanks
Google still has about 14 consecutive down days however...
According to my super spectacular dollar/liquidation indicator, the bear will wake up again tmorrow...
You forgot to put on your evil clown/court jester uniform.
I was expecting this little counterrally, made some money and am now preparing for the next big one. Go short young man!
Isn't it ironic how the enforcer of our enslavement resides on a street named "liberty"?
As ironic as Andrew Jackson on a $20.
it's trying to build iHnS
idiots can't stop screaming manipulation at ANY market move.
This is the expected behaviour, and is in fact normal, after a downmove people cover towards the end of the day.
Once again, please stfu.
None so blind as those that won't see! Seriously, do you want the PPT to carve it in triplicate in stone that they manipulate markets before you believe it? Are you so stupid that you expect us to believe that "these aren't the droids we're looking for"?
Get a grip man!
What was the PPT doing last year as the S&P500 went all the way down to 666?
Those morons at the PPT couldn't breach 1040. They are ultimately fucked. Pitty they use tax payers $$. Get out of the USA quick. And get your bags of wheat.
Really, what do people THINK the market should reasonably do? Gap down to your perceived level of fair value every day and just stay there until you decide that fair value has changed? Jesus, it's a market, it goes up and down, get used to it. Actually, bring some of your friends, it's a zero sum game and I need easier competition.
Act reasonably. Reflect reality.
But most people here seem to think the SPX is worth something far lower than where it currently trades. Let's say 800. Wouldn't the most reasonable thing be for it to gap down to 800 tomorrow morning? Why dink around in slow motion getting down there?
+100 LMAO
"Act reasonably. Reflect reality." LMAO
It depends on whether you perceive reality fundamentally or technically.
Do people always act reasonably? Do people always reflect reality? And the market is just made up of individual people (proxied through computers) after all.
I would say that your assertion that the market is made up of individuals is out of date.
Will pat myself on the back for this post early mid morning today while ES was up 25 points or so:
I stand by this view of the market, because it's really the best way to have luck hit you in the face. Pick a side, and get to trading. I go long once and a while, but feel dirty when I do. Today shows why. Overnight ramp job followed by some surprised short covering in the AM, sell the rally the rest of the day and $$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!
It's not a zero sum game when one big player is printing money
lol .... anybody just hear Cramer explain "fair value" based on pre opening futures vs cash ?
scary
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