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Same on SPX. If that wasn't a manipulative stick save, I don't know what one is.
TD, can we get a volume chart for ES up to close?
Market was/is technically oversold in the short-term. There are non-confirmations for the move below 1025 ranging from the vix to tick data.
Oh and btw, ES volume into the close was at the highest level of the day, rivaling volume at the open (also coincidentally an up move)...
Oversold - like real estate in Florida, right?
Similarly to my AUD/JPY point that you conveniently failed to reply to earlier, was ES buy volume higher at the beginning and end of the trading day OR am I wrong about that as well?
Theres no such thing as oversold/overbought, CNBS typical bullshit for the bathrobe brigades at home. Dont be such a fucking moron.
Ah you're right, there's no such "thing" professor Merton.
When fundamentals all point to an overvalued market, oversold technical indicators do not mean shit. Look at BP from April 20 to Friday.
What fundamentals pointed to BP being overvalued? As I understand, an accident caused BP's price to halve. Are you stupid, or am I missing something?
I am talking about the technicals vs fundamentals, or are you too stupid to read? You are obviously so high on your horse you cannot see anything in front of you. Just keep living like that. Your MBA has taught you oh so much.
I guess I'm too stupid to make the connection between technical/fundamental analysis and the BP accident.
Please explain where you see the connection?
Once Deep Horizion took a shit, fundamentals said overvalued for the entire decline, but technicals would point to oversold moments. The connection is that there is not one, and that to state that oversold/undersold as a primary indicator would be false. One has to look at the underlying factors for the movements both macro and micro. Using a technical indicator is about as accurate as VAR modeling. Yes technical indicators have been useful, especially since more and more people moved to algo trading, but with out true support then the indicators will fail on 6 sigma levels.
Buddy, anyone with half of a brain understands that all analysis (technical and even fundaental) get thrown out of the window when a catastrophe such such deep horizon happens. The objective is to run for the doors. That's like the equivalent of comparing the Lehman collapsing to the value of the S&P - Ain't nobody worried about whether the market is over or undervalued at that point...
I was simply stating that the market was SHORT-TERM oversold after last week (the move on tues and today seems to back up my analysis). My call falls closer in the realm of comparing a shaky earnings statement and after 8 days of heavy selling, deciding whether to stay short or jump in long...
You obviously do not have enough experience to understand this. maybe instead of bashing me for offering an alternative perspective, expand your horizons and maybe you could learn a thing or two.
Bless good old American 'know how' and HFT quant controlled algos!
On that note OutLooksIn:
Generally I'm not much of a fan of 'Hot Karl' Denninger, but is the following shit for real??
Er NM, already been covered. My bad.
I don't get it. Really. Why continue to delay the inevitable. Fuck, aren't the big boys out of their long positions by now? Don't they need it to go down to justify more QE?
Why continue to do this more and more blatantly? Why risk the very shred of integrity (cough) that still exists?
Give me a fucking break. So, by making it even more extremely obvious that it's rigged, that's supposed to convince more retailers to jump in.
This is like modern day 3 card monte. How many times is the 'lucky' guy going to have to find the Queen before the rube / mark steps up and plays? The problem is, if he's too luck for too long, even the rube knows it's a fucking scam.
Man...we must be close to the end.
I just read the other day that retail trades are only 3% of total market. Who's left? Prop desk vs. prop desk?
It is in the best interest of the USA to keep the markets up. People are already not spending money. Imagine how it will be when the markets finally correct. It will be ugly, and people will be very unhappy that their 401K are worth a fraction of what they used to be worth.
Does anyone remember the Fed hiring all those traders?
It absolutely is not in the best interst of keeping the markets 'up'. The more this gets exposed as an absurd scam the less likely anyone will touch it ever again. I understand the populist vision of why it's 'good' but, shit, it isn't working. The wealth effect isn't playing out on the masses. They just don't buy the bullshit. So, why keep shoveling more bullshit on them? Now, you're just making it worse long term.
My conclusion is the USA destructors have gotten cold feet, theyre scared of the people, 100 million gun owners stocked up on tons of ammo. This is not a game, at some point people will start shooting. Believe that.
I love the conspiracy theories as much as the next guy, but if 33 Liberty was all that, we would have never been down 9 straight sessions, right?
Never underestimate hedge funds and IB's prop desks unwinding long positions.
ZH's bloggers cry manipulation, 33 liberty, hal900, fraud, blah, blah, blah at every up-tick while 99.5% of them have zero first-hand experience working on a trade desk.
If that doesn't constitute ignorance and group think, then I don't know what does. This site has become the bearish version of CNBC. It is really unfortunate because this site has some top notch content minus the subjective "manipulation" commentary and comments...
Maybe you're just crying ignorance and stupidity in eloquent words. Close your eyes tighter - hear no evil, see no evil, right? I'm sure the run up today was due to valid reasons (e.g. - Abiggs buying up everything in the hours before the stock market started and the few minutes before it closed). In other words, if you don't like the site, go back to CNBC since we're too sensitive to your bullish needs.
You reinforce my point - utter ignorance. I never said that I was bullish nor do I care to read cnbc. All I ever sated was that the technicals point to a SHORT-TERM oversold condition in the market and that bloggers such as yourself are retarded. I state objective points while you throw around the zh "bull" insults.
BTW you never got back to me on my ES and AUD/JPY divergence comment earlier. I guess google finance doesn't provide real time futures and currency charts...
Again, you have succeeded at making my point for me.
We all can't work at Citadel.....
I, for one, find it wonderful to have a fresh perspective around here for a change. Maybe you can share your first hand knowledge of how much retail trading is going on and whether or not more fence sitters are buying equities and moving away from their cash positions or getting back into the market and so forth?
Oh mighty trader tell us your stories from the Lehman bonds desk.
The SEC watches porn and blogger Denninger watches fraud: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOr5suFJ6-k&feature=player_embedded
Makes sense to me. Abiggs, 70% of trading is done by high freq algo boxes, dark pools and prop desks. Go watch Dennis Kneale the optimist - I'm sticking to 0 hedge for my news.
"Makes sense to me. Abiggs, 70% of trading is done by high freq algo boxes, dark pools and prop desks"
Thanks for sharing this original and highly confidential piece of information Davo...
You guys never fail to surprise me! You definitely failed the following directions and summarizing what you read test back in school. Can you please point me to where I said that I support and read CNBC or where I said ZH was a bad news source?
What you are implying is that technicalities are the end all be all. Did you stop and think for a second why desks have been unwinding a lot of risk lately? Maybe the technicals are not correct on their calculus. It is too hard even with Mandelbrot's model to emulate randomness (which I hope you do not subscribe to the EMH as your professors like to tout). You can go long on your technicals for the short-term and I will sit short for the long term.
How's that short position looking; roughly 1200 S&P points later?
You sure know how to pick a market top...
excuse me, and your qualifications are?
MBA in Poli Sci
when the goldman prop desk has something like four loosing trading days in a year how can you think the thing isn't manipulated
I totally agree with you Abiggs, you haven't a clue what constitutes ignorance, though a mirror might help. On the other hand I'm betting arrogance is your strongest suit as you have it in spades. Bonne chance!
Why is the market going up, can someone please explain it? Everything everywhere shows we are clearly sliding into a depressionary cycle, so what sense is there in a manipulated and overvalued market?
These folks must have a reason, but I fail to see it?
more buyers than sellers.
yeah, lots of 'dem $100,000 bids
Honestly, it's not like these numbers mean anything anymore.
Besides, when the only people in the market are a bunch of HAL 9000's trading the same POS back and forth on zero volume, ramping the S&P up 10-handles in the last 45-minutes of the trading day after a holiday is child's play for these pros.
I went to bed last nigh when the Dow futures were -46, pleasently pleased. I wake up this morning and see them at +105. I think the funniest part about was the Marketwatch search for an explanation on why Dow Futuures were up three digit. Then it came down to Austrailia. Did they have a quick chalkboard?
"Anyone have ANY good news to explain this shit?"
" My Car Insurance went down"
"I got laid last night"
"Come'on we need to sound knowledgeable"
"Well there was some minor good news on Austrailia that I caught when I was fucking around with my iPad"
"Good Job. Good thinking Good teamwork. Go with it. You got the headline this morning"
"I do?" she asks weekly
"Better you than me, man I wouldn't want to be standing under the comments on that one"
Unreal. Fucking world is coming apart and the futures are up like the Fed found a extra 50 basis points under the couch to cut
ya... i slept well-woke up pissed off as a mother
Amen, same thing... I was so pissed of I kicked a hole in a door...
Don't you people ever look at anything but daily charts? Examine any major market drop during major recessions and you will always find these seemingly inexplicable up days. There are idiots who will "buy the dips" all the way to the bottom.
If all this is manipulation, who is footing the bill for it? That's what I'd like to know.
the problem was the -10 to + fuckin 30 on the S&P was on like 45 contracts... that is manipulation? the manipulation was at the endof the day not at night...
Why don't you ask Abiggs? He seems to have all the answers.
I don't usually double post. I've been wasting years making comments. You guys better check under the hood.
Consider it window dressing. Consider it make-up.
Anything that will impress the people that the doom & gloom economists have it all wrong all the time.
The banks are too big to fail. What about the media and government complex? Advertising, marketing or propaganda is a costly undertaking but it is required to keep the people "informed".
A market crash is just not permissable. It would start a vicious cycle of decreased spending and depressed citizens. It's better to keep the lie up and the illusion that all is not lost.
Question is, how many people are still believing the lies and how many people pretend they do believe but are taking precautions and prepare for the fallout that will inevitably come one day. Few admit that manipulation is going on for there is a big price to pay and their credibility is ruined.
Double post, sorry.
I particularly enjoyed the last minute of trading. Quite the show; almost better than the neighborhood fireworks display on Sunday.
I have actually been stunned at how LITTLE upside the market has seen since the end of April. Look at long-term charts and you'll see very few times the market has declined at this rate.
For all the cursing and claims of manipulation during the March 2009-April 2010 rally, isn't it odd that the PPT has suddenly lost so much control? Or maybe they weren't really in control after all . . . it just seemed that way until everyone decided they weren't?
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