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Last Minute After Hours Dump Leaves Investors On Edge Ahead Of "Dual POMO Bail Out Monday"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier we pointed out that today was trending to be one of the lowest volume days in history. A volume surge accompanying a panic dump into the close managed to pull the daily volume just barely higher than last Xmas eve (though still about 60% of last Black Friday). What is more relevant is that just after the market closed, the bottom fell out. ES closed at the lows of the day (contrary to amusing flashing and epilepsy-inducing CNBC "breaking news" propaganda stating just how much better compared to the day's low the S&P was trading at EOD) as the entire world woke up just after 1 pm realizing that Monday has that very deja vu-ish September 15, 2008 aftertaste. Not surprisingly, VIX exploded to the week's highs, well past the Korean war threats, and a 14% move in one day. And, yes, that old backstop gold, pulled a VIX. What is most relevant, is that something big is happening just behind the scenes: ZB volume explodes to 608K, while the CME Ultra Treasury volume of 349K surpasses the prior record of 237k. Monday may just be a very interesting day as faith in the bailout machinery no longer works, and the Fed's two POMOs will mark the point where Brian Sack officially jumps the shark.

ES:

VIX:

and Gold:

 

 

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Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:17 | 756126 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That's what you get for stumbling around in the dark. Watch your step. That last one's a dozy.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:06 | 756202 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Yup, that was one hell of a move just 10 mins after.....Was it the Fed selling or the next "soon to be arrested for insider trading" liquidating?

CNBS will pee themselves if all the hedge funds left Wall Street to escape the wrath of the Justice Department.....

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:14 | 756486 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

QE 5 is priced in....

 

here comes the pain

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 21:19 | 756677 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Wait, Wait, what happened to QE4?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:44 | 756356 billhilly
billhilly's picture

an odd occurance at APMEX I noticed... prior to the close they had 6 1-Kilo RCM Gold Bars in stock and now they have ZERO.  Normally (I follow them fairly closely) they stay in stock for quite some time, especially since they just restocked them, so somebody "bought a whack" of them...probably nothing, but maybe something? 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:58 | 756468 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Gold merchants are very astute. When gold is making sudden moves upward, the inventory may be programmed to shrink. They are working on margins up and down and don't like volatility unless they can harness it for their benefit.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 21:11 | 756665 billhilly
billhilly's picture

Oracle, thanks for the nice explanation/reasoning and taking the time to share.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:18 | 756128 MisterPerspective
MisterPerspective's picture

Nobody wanted to be long over a potentially explosive weekend. But, if nothing happens over the next couple of days, it looks to be a set up for a rally on Monday. We've seen this before.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:00 | 756188 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

Rally Monday with a Double POMO on the side.  Love it.

 

Bennie's got this on replay with the iPod Jobs gave him for Thanksgiving:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwi8m4SIejE

Dreams by Van Halen:

WORLD TURNS BLACK AND WHITE
PICTURES IN AN EMPTY ROOM
YOUR LOVE STARTS FALLIN DOWN
BETTER CHANGE YOUR TUNE
REACH FOR THE GOLDEN RING
REACH FOR THE SKY
BABY JUST SPREAD YOUR WINGS

WE'LL GET HIGHER AND HIGHER
STRAIGHT UP WE'LL CLIMB
WE'LL GET HIGHER AND HIGHER
LEAVE IT ALL BEHIND

RUN, RUN, RUN AWAY
LIKE A TRAIN RUNNIN OFF THE TRACK
THE TRUTH GETS LEFT BEHIND
AND FALLS BETWEEN THE CRACKS
STANDING ON BROKEN DREAMS
BUT NEVER LOSIN SIGHT
SPREAD YOUR WINGS

WE'LL GET HIGHER AND HIGHER
STRAIGHT UP WE'LL CLIMB
WE'LL GET HIGHER AND HIGHER
LEAVE IT ALL BEHIND

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 15:43 | 757729 David Sofer
David Sofer's picture

The Fed quants pulverize and repulverize their POMO scenarios before they advise the desk. Bernanke referenced the Bank of England quants in his recent speech in Frankfurt. That was a very clear message sent in exactly the right place. If Monday works maybe we will see a triple POMO day before Christmas. Link below, click on the Joyce Lasaosa Stevens Tong reference.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101119b.htm

This is what it is.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:19 | 756129 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

EURUSD surprisingly didnt follow suit with ES. 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:19 | 756130 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

"Dual Pomo Bail Out Monday".  Not too long ago, they would dismissed such an idea as a conspiracy theory.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:26 | 756142 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and give you the look like the one you get when you try to explain to common people that the crisis isn't over yet because the newspapers say so.

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:49 | 756261 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

the crisis isn't over yet because the newspapers say so.

If the crisis was over there would be no QE2 , no POMO, houses would be selling, 42 million families would not need food stamps, bonds spreads would be flat and Harry Wanger would have NO Voice.

No its warming up ! 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:49 | 756365 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

It's different here in Canada....

 

<extra, extra sarcasm here>

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 09:43 | 757244 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

exactly. well said.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:33 | 756152 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

They'll need it!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:47 | 756257 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Dual Pomo = DP

DP in porn lingo has a different meaning maybe more appropos to we of the non-banker class.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:51 | 756528 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Great point.....how quickly we accept as normal what a brief moment ago we would have considered totally unacceptable....I am sure many Germans siad the same thing after Hitler was in power....

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:21 | 756131 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture
11-26 13:43: Ireland's ruling party loses special election in Donegal, opposition Sinn Fein party wins seat - RTE

The link I've posted means a coming bloodbath next week.

Cowen's party has a very narrow majority (2 seats). He will lose one today.

If he loses one again, then the bailout plan will be rejected.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:29 | 756145 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That would give a domino effect through Europe of cataclystic proportions.

Let's hope it doesn't get that far. 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:41 | 756162 TLT
TLT's picture

No.

Let's hope that happens.

Let the Irish send s*** to the bankers.

Let the world send the same for the bankers.

Let governments work for the people.

Let's change for once and forever.

Iceland is making a new constitution. It'll be finally a free country. A country out of this despicable system.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:47 | 756168 flacon
flacon's picture

Amen! I WANT the system to get flushed. I'm hoping for it. I just want it to happen as peacefully as possible. 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:05 | 756475 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Once they do, I would consider starting fishing business there.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:44 | 756520 OdinsBeard
OdinsBeard's picture

Free?  You are kidding right?  Sinn Fein have never ever truly stood for justice, equity or freedom.  They are just out for themselves.

 

Never trust a Socialist.  Ever.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:35 | 756235 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

And your solution is to keep feeding the fat bastard banksters?  Its time for change.  Get with it or be left behind.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:40 | 756237 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Remember that scrawny red headed drunk you saw the bouncers toss out on the street and remember how funny it was that he wanted to fight everybody standing around laughing at him, as small as he was ? Everyone has witnessed such a scene at some point in their life..  It's called HEART and the Irish are about to show the world just how much HEART is in them when they collectively tell the bankers to bail deez nuts mofos!!!

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:23 | 756309 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Can't Keep the irish down. Even Freud said psychotherapy (bullshit mind control) didnt work on them.

When the irish came to america they were treated as animals. Lots of discrimination. What did they do? Made something of themselves, cops, teachers, political leaders.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 08:31 | 757193 ibjamming
ibjamming's picture

I can think of a whole race that could stand to be a bit more like the Irish...

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:05 | 756199 delivered
delivered's picture

Just like an individual or a company, when the debt load becomes too heavy, its time to clean the slate and go BK. Basically what Ireland is looking at is a massive DIP (i.e., debtor in possession financing) from the ECB where you simply have a prepackaged BK which then crams down significant and very difficult spending cuts on the masses (combined with tax increases). In the end, the DIP financing source calls the shots with the masses suffering and the equity holders getting wiped out. Or in other words for Ireland, the ECB represents nothing more than a R&P Fund (rape and pillage) that is going to suck the life out of the country. Modern day pirates these bankers are showing absolutely no mercy as they sack one country after another.

To the Irish and the entire country, it would appear that beating the ECB to the punch would be the best course of action (and while the country still can). Remember when you elect this road and tell the ECB to stick it where the sun doesn't shine, you must properly plan for going BK and be prepared with ample cash/liquid resources (as everyone is going to place you on COD) along with a understanding the significant pain everyone will experience in the short-term as you move away from the Euro and fire up the old printing presses (or minting presses with your new coinage).

My son visited Ireland this summer and loved the country. I would hate to see it become nothing more than an annexed arm of the ECB. Extending more debt to solve debt issues when there is no possible plan to repay the debt is simply not viable. Iceland started the process and others need to follow including Ireland. Extreme short-term pain, absolutely. The ability to ensure your next generation's freedom, priceless. Best of luck as its only a matter of time and pressure before we in the good old USA have to face the same music.

So back to Tyler's original point on this article. Is something really starting to come apart this weekend which should make Monday very interesting indeed? Possibly but if not Monday, then just pick another day sometime in the future as Financial Judgement Day is all but certain over the next two years.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:19 | 756303 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

+1. Europe has a long history of being raped and pillaged. The Huns, Goths, Vikings, Mongols, Nazis, ...

To this list, we now add the Bankers.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:11 | 756207 ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

Exciting shit!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:24 | 756137 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Monday will be the Belgium bonds auction day. If that doesn't work out we'll get a euro crash to 1.29

The implications are great.

Remember, Belgium ownes 3% of all the US bonds, and if the sales don't work out, they'll dump them to buy the Belgium once. Or the Irish, Spain, greece, german once...

LOOKS LIKE WE'LL FINALLY GET OUR 15 MINUTES OF FAME BABY!!

YEAH!

GO LONG DOLLARS!!

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:58 | 756181 etrader
etrader's picture

Maybe Those US Dollar-Denominated bonds issued in Euroland might not of been the best idea  with hindsight ). :->

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spain-join-portugal-issuing-dollar-deno...

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:38 | 756342 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Uh-oh, beware of mighty Belgium, LOL.  Talk about a second-rate (and second-world) country.  Funny how you have a dysfunctional country, Belgium (sans a gum'ment for six months or so), a dysfunctional alliance, NATO, headquartered in Belgium, along with a totally fucking dysfunctional union, namely, the European Union, headquartered in Belgium.  Funny how it all fits.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:08 | 756397 etrader
etrader's picture

Its a debatable that Belgium is indeed a country at all....

Maybe the EU states  Flanders & Wallonia would be a better description :->

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 06:06 | 757157 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Makes one wonder - should Belgium split, would these two be qualified to use Euro?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:49 | 756139 depression
depression's picture

Today is the third test of the 50 DMA for the Dow, today the market closed right at the line. If we see the 50 DMA give way here, then my work points at 1148 for the ES.

EurUsd is already below its 50 DMA, but did hit and bounce off it's 100 DMA today.

10 year Treasuries have already broken through their 50 and 100 DMA's. Heading for a test of the 200.

Can Brian Sack keep all these markets in check simultaneously and keep the American Dream alive for one more day ? Playing smoke and mirrors games with the ES is one thing, controlling the global bond and currency markets is quite another.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:26 | 756140 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I use a "simpleton" strategy to gauge the market's health.

By watching the performance of the leading stocks that have the highest institutional sponsorship.

Today, most of the IBD Top 100 were unchanged, and some were actually higher on the day.

Some examples:

Right now, I see no sign of institutional distribution, leading stocks failing, or high-beta growth sectors lagging.  Market remains in bull mode.

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:33 | 756151 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

you should look at my portfolio. The only green I see is a bad pixel in my screen that's always green...

If that one also turn red, I will really go nuts.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:34 | 756154 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Hopefully anyone more than a "simpleton" realizes that not only is this a completely goalseeked conclusion to fit an arbitrary query, but is also flagrantly wrong, and lastly while a concept known as "highest institutional sponsorship" (holdings? buying interest? another made up term?) does not exist, these stocks are merely indicative of companies where leveraged beta strategies coalesce for those HFTs and hedge funds who are last to the dance.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:46 | 756166 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

TYLER.....you da man! I could never have inter-twined all that. Awesome. VXX afterhours 500,000 @ 44.59 = exactly the midpoint of intraday, and 65% of after's volume. Occurred at 13:07. Price creeping up - should close near end-of-day.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:51 | 756174 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Did Tyler just call robot a simpleton?

LOL!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:23 | 756224 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

I think Robot callked himself simpleton.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:54 | 756270 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Actually, Robo demonstrated simpletonness and TD merely called him on it.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:45 | 756359 FatFingered
FatFingered's picture

I just figured that one out myself.  It was Robot's earlier post that KWN is interviewing William Shatner that gave it away.  I knew Robot did not have a sense of humor like that.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:08 | 756204 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Damn Tyler. Facts during happy hour hurts.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:10 | 756205 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Thank you...of course you can trade and even chase momentum which may yield decent returns but to utilize those same instruments as a sign of economic health in this environment is absurd.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:14 | 756209 etrader
Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:27 | 756316 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

and lastly while a concept known as "highest institutional sponsorship" (holdings? buying interest? another made up term?) does not exist

 

LOL! Haha this really made my day - quite eloquent good sir.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:56 | 756382 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

"... who are last to the dance."  And (or) get the last dance?  

Point well-taken, mutual.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:02 | 756544 destraht
destraht's picture

I hope to one day understand what you said.  I understood when you said that it was "flagrantly wrong".

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:37 | 756157 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Cmg, tif

Retail awesome! Don't pay your mortgage, buy burritos and uggs

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:38 | 756159 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

+1.  Not that I think there's any future for this whole bailout/ponzi scheme in the long-run, but the market generally doesn't look to be anticipating a massive meltdown in the near term.  The VIX has broken its downtrend, so there could be a shakeout dead ahead, but overall, I see more risk than reward on the short-side right now.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:40 | 756161 Arthur Two Shed...
Arthur Two Sheds Jackson's picture

That stuff's on auto-pilot for the weekend.

 

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:26 | 756227 ThreeTrees
Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:10 | 756481 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Looks like a buy to me.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:59 | 756170 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Netflix is Blockbuster sans overhead costs and nothing sells like entertainment.  It is a brilliant company in respect that it leases little property, and it will crush the entertainment sector.  I would not be surprised if this stock doubled and split in the next three months.

Americans have somehow saved up enough monie to have minimal entertainment (even I have a DVD player) and to buy guns this winter.  Must be a lot of buck hunting being done.  Peoples got to eat.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:00 | 756186 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Problem is they don't own the content and have to renegotiate it. Try That after studios see their blu ray and dvd sales plummet and can make more from on day rentals for $5 a pop.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:34 | 756435 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

Except that NO ONE can make money on $5 rentals, which is why everyone else folded, and why Blockbuster will eventually either fold all its stores or fold the company.

Renegotiations may not be as easy, but Netflix will help to do for movies what Apple did for music.

The problem is that Netflix has enemies on all sides, including the last-mile dumb pipe jockeys who for now are not yet sticking it to the consumer for the volume of data they are streaming... But might.

This has a long way to go before it gets figured out. I see Netflix surviving, but at a much more rational stock price. Even in the case of an acquisition, no one is buying this at these inflated levels and with no certainty they can better monetize the asset.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:19 | 756220 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

isn't Netflx working to provide online content? The cable companies have stopped short of offering customizable content, probably because 2/3s of the content would disappear. Then there is google TV, which rather than putting television on your monitor, puts computer signal on your television (didn't Webtv try that)

 here a question, ten years ago the hot stocks were bandwidth plays, and B2B. The day when there wasn

't enough bandwidth was coming soon. That day came and went I guess, as everyone has something connected to the internet, and those bandwidth plays are dead and gone.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:28 | 756315 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Netflix has two extremely stupid exposures though. It's usually the Content Distribution companies which clean up, and Netflix is totally dependent upon these.

Second, they've made a really boneheaded move to depend totally on Amazon's Cloud Services. And Amazon has decided to go into competition with Netflix. Not only does Amazon get to watch and help out on how to do things, but Amazon also gets paid for it by Netflix.

I'd be careful on Netflix. Short term, sure. Long term, well, just keep an eye on the above.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:38 | 756440 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

The first scares me more than the second. And the last mile costs to the consumer scare me more than these two put together.

At these elevated levels, I am just laying off. And I love the service. Just hooked up DVD player number two today.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:10 | 756561 destraht
destraht's picture

I don't know anybody that uses Netflix anymore.  I know two people who pay too much to Comcast though. They have plasma screens but haven't invested into Bluray because they still are not sure who won the battle. They pay $5 to watch a HD movie and that is that. I must say though that this is a small sample size.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:36 | 756616 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

I take it you mean the DVD side of things, and not the Internet delivery. DVD's are now a side business of Netflix. The Internet delivery is where their business is, and it's huge. Myself, I don't know of anyone who doesn't have it, via the Xbox or on their PC.

It's especially useful when travelling, since you don't have to depend on the Hotel's overpriced crap offerings. But the same applies to the Cable/Satellite companies.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 22:14 | 756742 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

Oddly enough, you known what would make Netflix take off even further? An IPad with an HDMI port.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 06:22 | 757161 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Everyone is "totally dependent" upon something. IMO Netflix is doing the right thing and they have multiple providers of "something" (Akamai, Limelight, etc.).

The dependence on ACS: well, it's cheap and should they find something better they can go across the street when and if they feel like it. Netflix doesn't have to invest in capital-intensive infrastructure and can scale on demand. It's illusory to think that one could avoid competing with Amazon simply by choosing not to sign up for their cloud service. I wouldn't expect Microsoft to build a keyboard factory in order to hide information from generic keyboard manufacturers.

(No opinion on the share price, no interest in any of the companies mentioned here.)

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 04:20 | 757137 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

DVD players can be found for around $29 (USD, er, FRNs?) at Walmart, about $5 more than a newly-released Blu-Ray disk.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:51 | 756173 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Every village needs an idiot, even if it is a robot.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:36 | 756236 razorthin
razorthin's picture

The Dow is showing distribution (the first time since August I might add) - but it is the only index thus far.  Yes, this terrifying weekend scenario looks all too familiar and is bound culminate in a  tulipy gap up on Monday.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:51 | 756265 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

sad but true - and even if it opens flat/down, they'll ramp that bitch UP at end of day

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:57 | 756274 razorthin
razorthin's picture

In particular, the financials are long down-trodden and are in position to explode off the floor.  Even if only in the short term.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:34 | 756436 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Thanks for the tip - hope you're right, so I can load up on more FAZ on the dip :)

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:45 | 756630 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I buy the gapper down in Au or Ag if we get one Monday.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:36 | 756510 Orly
Orly's picture

Don't let 'em raz you, Robo.  I noticed that, too, that the market internals were a lot stronger than the tape said.  DAX almost pulled within even before bailing back down.  The Spanish market cut its losses in half at one point.

The EUR was able to catcha bid on the dollar on a bounce off a bottoming trendline as drawn on the EURUSD Daily.  For every tick the EUR moved up, the USDJPY moved down two.  Toward the end of the day, when some shenanigans were being played with the EURUSD pair, the USDJPY just sat there until the end of trade and positions were jettisoned.

All this is to say I think there is another surprise coming next week, starting Monday.  Equities ramp, Euro ramps and USDJPY crawls back to all-time lows.  It could happen.

For an easy tell, watch if the EURUSD breaks below this long-term trendline.  If it does, sell everything (why it won't happen...).  If it doesn't, stay long equities until the Euro runs out of gas.

:D

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:44 | 756519 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

that's wild..I just thought "hey, where the hell is Orly?"

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 12:08 | 757359 Kaiser Zose
Kaiser Zose's picture

@Robot:  dead right - no collapse indicated in broad mkt at this point.  Bears will continue to get faces ripped off until proven otherwise.  Sideways correction occuring in broad mkt at present.  Once idiot Irish probs are "solved" and the ROK goes back to sleep - mkts may ramp - esp if US tax cuts extended.  Portugal is another bogus distraction - Spain not going under, at least not anytime soon. 

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 12:34 | 757402 Orly
Orly's picture

And the clearest signal to watch is the EURUSD.  It may take a couple of weeks to sort out, as it is not every day that currency pairs run into major trendline and Fibonacci support at once. The ride could be a bit bumpy at first.

The specific level to watch is EURUSD 1.3141.  A significant close below this level on the four-hour chart means game over, reset: next stop would be EURUSD ~1.26.  I don't think that will happen because that may truly unravel the entire house of cards.

Also, the USDJPY has recaptured its inverse relationship to the action in the EURUSD.  Eurodollar up, Dollaryen down.  This could be a most profitable set-up...

Or it can get you killed.

Be careful.

Orly

Sun, 11/28/2010 - 11:19 | 758654 Kaiser Zose
Kaiser Zose's picture

Thanks Orly.  Been watching EURUSD and USDJPY....

Sun, 11/28/2010 - 11:58 | 758697 Orly
Orly's picture

Yes, it's back to where it once belonged.

Last two weeks showed a major tussle between the dollar and the yen to see who would reign supreme in the "risk-off" currency show-down.  The Japanese lost, meaning that their currency is going to be the risk-off currency going forward and the USD will tank as the SPX ramps.  More pain for Japanese exporters but who cares?  We're the United States.  We have a global economic structure to save...

Back to the old playbook (which definitely works for me, as some clarity somewhere in the market is nice these days...): SPX up, Euro up, Dollar down.

Or vice versa.  The door opens both ways.  Just watch which way it goes and follow it.  The moves off these levels either way are going to be ginormous.

Best of luck trading!

Sun, 11/28/2010 - 12:28 | 758723 Orly
Orly's picture

So what are your conclusions?

You must share...

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:31 | 756146 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another roadsign to watch:

The CRB Index.

Most commodity prices were up today, even as the dollar was strong.

Last time we saw that was August, when the CRB index failed drop even though the dollar was surging and the SPX was tanking.

Do or die right here:

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:58 | 756178 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The most important question is, 'will commodities follow Precious Metals?'  Commodities may not hold the value PMs do, not only in the least as paper assets but some commodities go bad and stale, gold never does; will they continue to inflate?  As they have during Blackhawk Ben's Green Chute Job?

Turd charts silver:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_yrnL7w7J_ps/TOrah6enY0I/AAAAAAAAABY/86O8HogWgH...

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:58 | 756183 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:01 | 756187 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Where is HarryWanger?

I wonder if the coin shop is open.....

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:02 | 756190 ATG
ATG's picture

Record bandwidth hog

And the point is?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:46 | 756248 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

That platinum move is NOT a good sign. Remember platinum and paladium are only leveraged 50 to 1 instead of gold and silvers 100:1.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:59 | 756278 tallystick
tallystick's picture

Robo, you need to work on the relevancy of the data presented in your charts, both on the X and Y scale.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:12 | 756291 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Robo: "WTF? what's relevance got to do with it...?"

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:38 | 756442 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

TSX was down today, TSX venture (small cap gold) was up today.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:59 | 756185 ATG
ATG's picture

Ags 443 targeting 341

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GKX

Metals 414 targeting 340

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GYX

PM's 1902 targeting 1700

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GPX

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:42 | 756163 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

60 billion or so in pomo next week. Everyday, twice Monday (gotta catch up, holiday)

Will it push higher or hold here while europe falls apart?

Portugal Saying everything Is fine all week. Will Sunday night change?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:59 | 756184 pnfteixeira
pnfteixeira's picture

Hi believe the SPX 500 will test the trendline and support at 1.165 next week, then a dead cat bounce... The baillout of Irland maybe be announce (or not) this weekwnd... the fear of a baillout Spain is growing... The IBEX was losing almost 2,7% today, then recover to -1,8%... if Spain need help, all Europe is in serious problems...

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:04 | 756195 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Portugal and Spain will need a bailout. Bond market is showing that. Problem is with bailout talks is when rumors spend, they force the need for the bailout.

We are far worse than may with th greeks now, it's spread and we saw how the global markers tanked. Yet here we are near 2 highs and the shit is stuck to the fan.

Koreas arent helping matters either.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:05 | 756196 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

What's this?

 

Putin ditches dollar, backs Euro on trip to Germany

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvJEJEGzeU8

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:37 | 756334 walküre
walküre's picture

Russia and China ditching the dollar.

The Arabs on the verge. Still reeling from what happened to Saddam when he was looking for a Euro trade. But they really don't have a choice. They're dollar holdings are scary.

When the whole world decides to go "off" the dollar in short order, you better have some wheelbarrows in your garage.

Euro is cheap at this level.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:11 | 756403 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

You are either a trapped long, or have a very poor understanding of what the situation is europe is.  I'll be polite and assume "trapped long".

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:18 | 756413 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Ahh, those Brits....always so polite & thoughtful :)

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:51 | 756460 walküre
walküre's picture

I see equilibrium for EURUSD at 1.35

That's my mark for the end of the year.

When EURUSD went South of 1.20 I made that call here many times over. When EURUSD traded above 1.40 I felt uneasy about the hike. Someone at GS calling for 1.55 is pure lunacy.

However, all FIAT being equal what is the advantage for the USD is the reserve currency status and military firepower.

China and Russia opting out of the dollar trade, Russia loves the Euro and China has started ramping up Euro to support their best customers.

Russia is saturated with resources. If the Russians trade oil, gas and uranium for Euro to the Chinese, all bets are off. The Arabs have a secret love affair with the Euro because it is NOT the dollar.

Russia, China, the Middle East perhaps India.. going to trade in Euro rather than USD.. the world would be a much happier place.

The European debt issue is like a bad case of diarhea. A few more days on the crapper until the shit is flushed out of the system and it will be ok. Axel Weber says as much.

Exessive public debts are a clusterfuck no matter where. The private sector in Europe is rather solid with little debt, lots of assets and equity. What needs to happen and will is massive cut backs in the public service sector all accross Europe. The public service sector needs to get it into their collective numbskulls that governments cannot afford to pay more for the services than they are generating in revenues.

 

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:24 | 756498 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I'll give GS this: their $2T QE2 and EURUSD 1.55 calls are at least somewhat consistent.

 

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 04:27 | 757141 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The European debt issue is like a bad case of diarhea. A few more days on the crapper until the shit is flushed out of the system and it will be ok.

More like Cholera, friend -- where's those electrolytes when ya need em??

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 06:48 | 757170 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

China and Russia opting out of the dollar trade, Russia loves the Euro and China has started ramping up Euro to support their best customers.

Short term this means nothing. China still has to buy US T-bills, so until they stop they'll have lots of dollar-denominated debt to sit on (or would it be better to use it in trade?).

Good luck with "ramping up Euro".

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:05 | 756197 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I'd say "Wow, look how those dogs puked it out after the bell," and even with a sense of wonder or shock.  However, and once again predicted by the most manipulated instrument in the US stock market today, the SPY, those candles in the AH session on Wednesday dictated a downward move today.

 

As Hong Kong based US hedge fund managers went long SPY on Wednesday night @  $118.43 [through a bogus exchange somehwere] and, despite the lower open, profitably sold SPY creation units above that price all freakin' day long.  Once done, they shorted SPY creation units just after the bell today @ $120.21...exactly twice...and then dumped the E minis. 

 

But I understand the SEC, led by the hapless Shaprio, are getting close to being done receiving comments from the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street on which laws the SEC should or should not enforce so that they can coax another day's blood out of this broken and dead US stock market.

 

Toss on top of this daily criminal Wall Street activity that the Ben Bernank prints money all day long for these guys to play these games and...well...an average joe like me just does not really feel wonder or shock anymore. 

 

So let's talk about shopping!

 

Fuck me!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:19 | 756217 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

"I feel your pain" William Jefferson Clinton

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:40 | 756447 Kali
Kali's picture

"looked how those dogs puked it out".  Luv it.  Or like any other predatory animal that swallows a shit sandwich, cats, snakes, owls..........

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:06 | 756200 tpberg7
tpberg7's picture

We are grateful for your intervention at times like this when someone needs to separate the shit from the Shinola!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:17 | 756214 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

polish and Polish

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:12 | 756206 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Don't we have Hearings next week on the POMO, QE2 Bail Out?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:41 | 756240 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Market is waking up, the turkey ben isn't in control.  

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:53 | 756268 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

1) wikileaks is ready to throw another stink bomb under the WH porch

2) the Koreas at it again. (Cramer said they would all sit down for Turkey dinner, and things will be fine, yeah just like Thanksgiving at my house, a free for all)

3) didn't hear a single story about black friday today, which does not bode well. no news is bad news.

4) the democrats are just sneaky enough to let the bush tax cuts expire. ooops

5) the IBD boys keep tight stops, one whiff of trouble and the bid vanishes

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 16:56 | 756272 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

"3) didn't hear a single story about black friday today, which does not bode well. no news is bad news."

But the lady at CNBC said they were plenty of lines at the door of stores. She wouldn't lie to us, would she?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:58 | 756470 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Such news comes out on yahoo finance. Plenty of talk out there - thats where lots of sheeple get updated. Black Friday were BLOW OUTs !!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:13 | 756295 Prison Justice
Prison Justice's picture

How are YOU gonna celebrate Double POMO Monday?  I plan on having some hot dogs and apple pie....POMO is just as American!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:32 | 756327 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

I look for Asia to crash Sunday evening and the "cover" will be horrific Black Friday leading to Black Monday meltdown...and Paddy O'Grady is in the basement with his KTel Chemistry Set getting ready for the parade as we speak.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 17:40 | 756350 greenewave
greenewave's picture

There is a very serious possibility we have a BANK RUN December 7th. Please watch and share this video with the people you care about (http://youtu.be/U0KGv3Xw0KY).

Anonymous-

This is really scary guys, people are already talking about it and it has spread from France to the UK and now coming to the United States.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 18:40 | 756448 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I don't know who is planning this but it should have been further away from a NFP day because JPM takes down metal on those days.

The next NFP day is Dec 6th, to the best of my knowledge....

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 19:59 | 756539 bullet357
bullet357's picture

Russia and China sh*t cans the dollar ....Sunday night North Korea starts the war with South Korea ...Japan & U.S. jump onboard...then China jumps in and Monday what do you get the same ol same ol Dump & pump ...it does not matter what happen in the real world Here in the U.S. or  elsewhere in the world. The name of the game is...  "Dump and Pump" by the Fed will continue.  two words to live by Food & Ammo

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 21:45 | 756712 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

If this is what you expect, I would not worry about anything at all - because the city you live in would be a giant crater. If you're not in a city, the radioactivity would kill you.....quickly. A Korean war is something no one should be wishing for.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 13:42 | 757533 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I'm on board with Dump and Pump but there ain't going to be any war outside the Middle East anytime soon.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:10 | 756564 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What's jumping the shark mean?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:27 | 756597 Orly
Orly's picture

It means pulling out all the stops, not only because you're desperate but also because you're bored out of your mind and have run out of ideas.

The term is taken from an episode of the US sitcom "Happy Days," where the crew from Milwaukee go to L.A. or Hawaii or some place and the Fonz gets on a pair of skis and jumps a shark swimming in a shark-net pool.

They even split the episode into two parts so we could find out next week if Arthur Fonzarelli was shark meat or not.

Really beyond ridiculous is what it means.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:40 | 756623 At120
At120's picture

It's an idiom that refers to the beginning of the end.  Happy Days essentially went straight downhill after the episode when Fonzie got on those waterskis and leaped over the shark tank. 

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 13:36 | 757523 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Thanks for the info, At and Orly-I never would have guessed in a million years that the Fonz had anything to do with it.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 13:53 | 757551 Orly
Orly's picture

The Fonz was a cool iconic figure in the late-70's.  The show was cool, too, in that it brought nostalgia from the fifties and it was interesting how naive the world was then- and that was only in 1977!

The show was premised from George Lucas' American Graffiti film, with Ron Howard, Richard Dreyfuss and Harrison Ford (actually "discovered" by Lucas when he was doing construction work on the set...).  The nostalgia continued over into the TV show but it was clear from early on that the ideas and scenarios were fairly limited.  So here we have this ultimate cool guy that every boy dreamed of being as charismatic, "I got chicks, I got bikes, I got cars, I got chicks..." and they fly out to LA to jump a shark?

I suppose the term then could also mean a saddening disappointment in things we trusted or held near to us (such as our money...)- and The Fonz was definitely the coolest.  We wouldn't see cool again on TV until Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith in the A-Team.

Jumping the shark was a complete let-down for a lot of people.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 16:15 | 757787 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

When any TV show had to go outside its original set, it was evidence that the show was on the decline.  It even happened to The Honeymooners and I Love Lucy.

When Star Trek story lines involved going to an earth-like planet that was stuck in the 1920s and the cast dressed up like gangsters... ah, shit.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 16:33 | 757808 Orly
Orly's picture

omg...

I actually remember the I Love Lucy adventure.  (Not the original but in re-runs...). They went to Cali and I remember them having car trouble like in Tennesee or some place; crossed a bridge, singing, "California here I Come..."

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 20:21 | 756581 johngerard
johngerard's picture

will brian sack be replaced by ted mcginley when he jumps the shark?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 22:19 | 756752 ptolemy_newit
ptolemy_newit's picture

Trading partners are the crust dividing the world (not Oceans) and the eastern world is moving to a single trading continent and has no real need for the US $.  Add Africa and South Americas distaste for amerika and you have a lonely western planet.

Oil producers will side with the largest customer who can pay.   Poor Canada stuck with living next to the old dog!  Maybe a good thing the Bearing Strait no longer freezes over and trade can go over the top.

Now that america has junked its true currency (laws, constitution & accounting standards) these are last days of the safe haven USD reserve currency.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 23:40 | 756898 edwardo1
edwardo1's picture

"It's an idiom that refers to the beginning of the end.  Happy Days essentially went straight downhill after the episode when Fonzie got on those waterskis and leaped over the shark tank."

It may have been all downhill- though from what vantage point I'm not sure, since it was always a silly bit of fluff- but, since the series ran from '74 to '84, and the episodes in question occurred in '77, that assertion is false.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 00:27 | 756960 Orly
Orly's picture

No.  That's true.  After that, the show evolved into Arthur Fonzarelli being emasculated and Richie having fears about college.  It just got all out of whack.

Then, there were the spin-offs: Mork and Mindy, Laverne and Shirley, Joanie Loves Chachi.  Had there been anything else on in its time slot, it would have beaten it.  No one wanted to go up against the mighty Happy Days, so they ran junk next to it (not that TV was all that in the '70's...) and it became a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Besides, ABC owed Marshall, the producer, big-time for that so the show stuck.

I think that jumping the shark here means how blatant and pandering it has become.

Sat, 11/27/2010 - 11:43 | 757315 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

The system is unstable, but I think everybody is frightened about the downside if a country breaks off the Euro, it will just cascade thoughout the continent.  I think they'll print of paper over the problem...

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