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On Laszlo Birinyi's 2,800+ S&P Prediction By September 4, 2013

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Kermit was earlier on CNBC, killing microphones with 20,000Hz+ chirping, delivering a presentation on the merits of using rulers as a market extrapolation tool. And in case anyone is not convinced to whip our their own (ruler) and see just how the S&P is expected to hit 2,854 or some ballpark number by September 4, 2013 (precisely), here is how he got that number: you take the recent surge in the S&P driven by Bernanke's and the HFT's no volume melt up market levitation and apply a straight line to it. Any questions?

Which is not to say the Hungarian is wrong: after all by 2013 hyperinflation will be rampant (thank you Chairsatan Vissarionovich Jr) and market participants (read algos) will watch with horror as the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange acquires the only assets of the Deutsche Uber-Global Borse (their Mahwah collocation boxes naturally) for a few Bernanks (expiration date 72 hours after printing).

 


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Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Riches for everybody!!!!!1

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:53 | Link to Comment eckart
eckart's picture

on a spread trade at 50 bucks a pip, thats over $700k! should be enough to wallpaper my bedroom...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Wow, this Technical Analysis thing is easier than I thought...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

+1!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:16 | Link to Comment HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

This seems plausible.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:20 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

So does my SI swimsuit cover shot.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:25 | Link to Comment HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

Well, it doesn't affect me much either way.  I've been long stocks since March of '09 so I can ride out any eventuality.  Plus my Home Decor business is taking off like a rocket, so stocks are just extra retirement money.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

Harry...lololololololol lololololololol

Bought at the exact bottom...riggghhhtttt.

Too funny

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:37 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

and you can fairly safely bet your life he'll sell at the exact top. he's one of "those" investors.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Salvatore CFA
Salvatore CFA's picture

Wanqer, dedicated repetition of said italicized action can cause visual acuity to materially deteriorate. How can one be a purveyor of wall stencil kits if you have but one free hand, and the paint brush is a blur ?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

I don't even read what you spew anymore.  I just flag you for the pure fun of doing it. 

 

What a total jackwagon!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

WOW HARRY,

You are just too brilliant. "Ride out any eventuality" is the smartest thing I've heard since Bernakski's "There is little or no inflation." and Birinyi's comments today. Just hold on to everything and you are guaranteed to stay on top. Perfect....

I had a normal take for January in my business, that is if you consider normal for a month in 1985!! It's all the same 'cause there is no inflation. I'm doing so well I think I'll sell my business for a quatrillion dollars before the economy takes a breather.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 01:09 | Link to Comment Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

So which ones did you buy then?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:26 | Link to Comment CU1981
CU1981's picture

Can we get a pre-release peak at it ?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Laz has been a heck of alot more accurate than Dancing Dave the Bear Rosenberg

 

but the real issue is the form/opportunity the impending crisis will take and when it will hit - To TD's and for that matter Faber's point equities are but one store of value for a collapsing currency

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

.... to infinity and beyond.....

The Buzz Lightyear analytical method.  I fear its a Wild E. Coyote moment... still running on thin air and after, and only, when you realize there is nothing supporting you - do you plumment ... and puff... you create a little cloud of dust when you meet earth.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Hamy, when i first saw this chart straight away i thought, 'Did Hamy draw this?'

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Wouldn't a hyperinflationary environment make that estimate plausible ?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Exactly my thought.  We talk of hyperinflation on ZH and then assume the market won't track with it.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:34 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

the market can track with inflation...hyperinflation is another matter all together. At that point most people will have lost almost all purchasing power...and by extension...corporations will have lost most customers....sales, revenues and profits will plummet.

but then again...in this market...sure...I can see that a s a scenario for stocks to go parabolic.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Fair enough. Thanks for your reasoning.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:30 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Give Laszlo yardstick.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:18 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

If the S&P doubles, and the dollar is cut in half, and I pay taxes on gains.... I'll be rich.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:20 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

...sigh...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Vector math for retards.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:24 | Link to Comment DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

S&P = gold spot.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

What a fucking douchebag.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

He read your gold plot

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Next he will show that inertia will dictate the markets move higher because things in motion tend to stay in motion

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:11 | Link to Comment lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Right you are. They tend to stay in  motion UNLESS ACTED UPON BY AN OUTSIDE SOURCE. How's about GRAVITY AND FRICTION (in our case RESISTANCE) !!!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:26 | Link to Comment jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

This does seem realistic at this rate. Since corrections dont seem to ever occur anymore and we just go higher and higher on lower and lower volume, its conceivable that we may get there without another correction.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:27 | Link to Comment vas deferens
vas deferens's picture

 

Once QE6 is announced the prediction may be understated.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:46 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

that projection seems a bit gappy for my taste... but, shit, i mean, a new technical indicator to add to the all ready crowded toolkit... now known as the "Hung Laszlo".

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:33 | Link to Comment ivana
ivana's picture

this is what happens when puppeteers don't have good quality of reliable algorithm for CONTROLLABLE DOWNWARDING of markets.

Going up without volume was easy but controlling diving ... hmmmm - not so easy.

Think that ZH could post and advert or public tender for software programmers to help powerz and get really rich!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Corduroy
Corduroy's picture

I think I need a longer ruler or need to use smaller graphs - thats why I have been getting it wrong all this time

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Corduroy
Corduroy's picture

Thats dependent on the S&P 500 still operating in 2013.. :-)

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:36 | Link to Comment monkeyfaction
monkeyfaction's picture

They let people say any old crap on CNBC these days. I wouldn't be suprised to see my Grandma on there next week telling people to buy Netflix because her cat said so.

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:37 | Link to Comment jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

When you live in a world where stocks like FDX and DF can warn on earnings and zoom higher, then predictions like this seem extremely plausible.

 

The strange thing is that throughout history, whenever people have been this complacent, bad things have happened. I can't think of anything at this point that would be perceived as "bad" by this market.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Crispy
Crispy's picture

GC price action does not agree with any sort of hyper inflation scenario. New highs or bust...until then I do not agree.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

Tops aren't broadcasted...or are they?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:41 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

I think he's calling one now.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Traveling Trader
Traveling Trader's picture

The extrapolation above as an analysis is absurd.....but so is the anti-gravity market at this point.   If inflation does go hyperbolic the FED's reaction will certainly dampen the market by the application of required tightening.......no???

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Ted K
Ted K's picture

TYLER---

Usually I choose to attack you on substantive reasons---maybe for the first time ever you disappoint in the entertainment/Vaudevillian department, you tease us with the Kermit reference and no video/audio of Birinyi?!?!?!?!?!  It's a sad moment for ZeroHedge...I'm getting verklempt Mike Myers style now........

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Coming shortly

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Coming shortly sir!

There I fixed it for you. And don't make that mistake again, they'll have your head on a pike.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:16 | Link to Comment lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

"Coming shortly sir."

No.  Coming shortly, sir, yes sir.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 03:51 | Link to Comment Ted K
Ted K's picture

Thanks Tyler---5 stars for customer service.

+1000

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Salvatore CFA
Salvatore CFA's picture

One needs to listen to Laszlo in Dolby NR mode, else the tympanum will throw a fit.

S&P 2,800...yet another Mad Hungarian ( in deference to the great Al Hrabosky ).

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:46 | Link to Comment kaiten
kaiten's picture

Hungarians know something about hyperinflation. Hungary had the worst hyperinflation in history.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Hungary 1945-1946

Hungary went through the worst inflation ever recorded between the end of 1945 and July 1946. In 1944, the highest denomination was 1,000 peng?. By the end of 1945, it was 10,000,000 peng?. The highest denomination in mid-1946 was 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 peng?. .......

..... When the peng? was replaced in August 1946 by the forint, the total value of all Hungarian banknotes in circulation amounted to one tenth of one US cent.

 

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Be interesting to find out if the Hungarians got their central bank before or after this episode.

ORI

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

y = mx + b(itchez!)

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:57 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

+1 = m

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

... and everything is in positive correlation with absolutely everything else!

God at work in His playground. The universe is a model of synchronous perfection. And so long as my options vest on schedule I too am a believer. 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

birinyi. Thought of biryani when I read his name. Indian rice dish for those un-familiar.

And this work/call of his.... can he gets paid serious money.

I heard an interview with a wise old black woman on KPFA, Berkeley one day and she said "You can tel the state of a country by two things: Who they pay the most and where they keep their Elders".

The money side of the equation is a sad testament to America/world currently eh?

Wall Street and Sports and Media.

Go figure.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/16/truth-about-america-truth-about-us/

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

I get better results using the rounded side of a protractor.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

"Kermit was earlier on CNBC, killing microphones with 20,000Hz+ chirping, delivering a presentation on the merits of using rulers as a market extrapolation tool"

 

Fucking epic.  LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:23 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

While Dave Rosenberg was announcing the suckers rally Laz was calling the bottom

 

both were wrong but if one put their $ in Laz's boat and one with Dave the Bear who would be further ahead?

 

And with respect mocking the guys voice is like Yves Smith taking shots at Zero Hedge for that little issue back in the day - bad form all around

 

Laszlo Birinyi: S&P 750's the Bottom - Barron's Interview

January 04, 2009

http://seekingalpha.com/article/113129-laszlo-birinyi-s-p-750-s-the-bott...

 


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Birinyi is a simpleton and cannot even use his tools correctly. Employing his same data set I calculated that S&P would be only 2,723 by September 4, 2013! He should return to making book down at the race tracks if he cannot do any better than this!

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

If Watson, feeling like a Bad Ass, keeps buying this market - El B. might be right.

Companies, continuing with layoffs and buybacks, surely will help too.

Apple should buy all but 25 shares, MONSTER bonus with a 13.5 Billion dollar shareprice!! No-brainer..

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment 99er
99er's picture

SPX

Caw...caw... Black Crows!

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

This Hungarian idiot doesnt even use logarithmic charts. If hes going to use crayons and rulers to predict stock market movements at least use the correct scale for long term charts.   I get S+P 3,800 , give or take , using the Full-Retard method and the right scaling chart.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment billbengen
billbengen's picture

Hey, I remember this chart from Aerospace Engineering courses. This is what the trajectory of Apollo 2013 looked like just before the fuel cells blew out. As you recall, it did a spin around the moon and ended up back where it started.

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

If all you know-it-all commenters heaping scorn on Birinyi are so effing smart, how come not one of you is talking about your own predictions?  It's a rhetorical question; the answer is because you're a bunch of losers who predicted the S&P down to 400 and missed the greatest stock rally in memory.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:34 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

I still stand by my prediction that at some point during his presidency Obama will say, "It's not my fault!"

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Stimulus Billy
Stimulus Billy's picture

(1947) gian carlo menotti

 

The sun is falling and it lies in blood

The moon is weaving bandages of gold

Old black swan where oh where is my lover now

 

Torn and tattered is my bridal gown and my lamp is lost

With silver needles and with silver threads

The stars stitch a route for the dying sun

Old black swan where oh where is my lover now

 

I had given him a kiss and a golden ring

And a golden ring

I had given him a kiss of fire and a golden ring

Oh with silver needles and with silver threads

The stars stitch a route for the dying sun

 

Black wing o black wing take me down with you

Take me down with you take me down with you

Take me down with you

Old black swan take me down with you

I had given him a kiss of fire

Take me down with you

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment simpleminds
simpleminds's picture

He could have drawn a similar line in 2000 and 2007....how did that work out?

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Crispy
Crispy's picture

Whos the faggot that junked every single post?

 

Show your face faggot...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Isn't this the guy who invented the Biro?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

Martin Armstrong says stocks are going to boom too.  I find it hard to believe but I respect what he has to say.  www.martinarmstrong.org

Anybody have any comments on Armstrong?

 

 


Sun, 06/05/2011 - 05:21 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
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