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On Laszlo Birinyi's 2,800+ S&P Prediction By September 4, 2013

Tyler Durden's picture


Kermit was earlier on CNBC, killing microphones with 20,000Hz+ chirping, delivering a presentation on the merits of using rulers as a market extrapolation tool. And in case anyone is not convinced to whip our their own (ruler) and see just how the S&P is expected to hit 2,854 or some ballpark number by September 4, 2013 (precisely), here is how he got that number: you take the recent surge in the S&P driven by Bernanke's and the HFT's no volume melt up market levitation and apply a straight line to it. Any questions?

Which is not to say the Hungarian is wrong: after all by 2013 hyperinflation will be rampant (thank you Chairsatan Vissarionovich Jr) and market participants (read algos) will watch with horror as the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange acquires the only assets of the Deutsche Uber-Global Borse (their Mahwah collocation boxes naturally) for a few Bernanks (expiration date 72 hours after printing).


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Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:14 | 966581 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Riches for everybody!!!!!1

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:53 | 966740 eckart
eckart's picture

on a spread trade at 50 bucks a pip, thats over $700k! should be enough to wallpaper my bedroom...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:17 | 966593 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Wow, this Technical Analysis thing is easier than I thought...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:20 | 966608 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:16 | 966594 HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

This seems plausible.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:20 | 966607 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

So does my SI swimsuit cover shot.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:25 | 966632 HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

Well, it doesn't affect me much either way.  I've been long stocks since March of '09 so I can ride out any eventuality.  Plus my Home Decor business is taking off like a rocket, so stocks are just extra retirement money.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:35 | 966671 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Harry...lololololololol lololololololol

Bought at the exact bottom...riggghhhtttt.

Too funny

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:37 | 966677 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

and you can fairly safely bet your life he'll sell at the exact top. he's one of "those" investors.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:53 | 966741 Salvatore CFA
Salvatore CFA's picture

Wanqer, dedicated repetition of said italicized action can cause visual acuity to materially deteriorate. How can one be a purveyor of wall stencil kits if you have but one free hand, and the paint brush is a blur ?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:36 | 966876 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

I don't even read what you spew anymore.  I just flag you for the pure fun of doing it. 


What a total jackwagon!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:03 | 967339 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture


You are just too brilliant. "Ride out any eventuality" is the smartest thing I've heard since Bernakski's "There is little or no inflation." and Birinyi's comments today. Just hold on to everything and you are guaranteed to stay on top. Perfect....

I had a normal take for January in my business, that is if you consider normal for a month in 1985!! It's all the same 'cause there is no inflation. I'm doing so well I think I'll sell my business for a quatrillion dollars before the economy takes a breather.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 01:09 | 969279 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

So which ones did you buy then?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:26 | 966638 CU1981
CU1981's picture

Can we get a pre-release peak at it ?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:16 | 966814 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Laz has been a heck of alot more accurate than Dancing Dave the Bear Rosenberg


but the real issue is the form/opportunity the impending crisis will take and when it will hit - To TD's and for that matter Faber's point equities are but one store of value for a collapsing currency

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:20 | 966821 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

.... to infinity and beyond.....

The Buzz Lightyear analytical method.  I fear its a Wild E. Coyote moment... still running on thin air and after, and only, when you realize there is nothing supporting you - do you plumment ... and puff... you create a little cloud of dust when you meet earth.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:35 | 966874 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Hamy, when i first saw this chart straight away i thought, 'Did Hamy draw this?'

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:17 | 966595 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Wouldn't a hyperinflationary environment make that estimate plausible ?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:29 | 966645 Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Exactly my thought.  We talk of hyperinflation on ZH and then assume the market won't track with it.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:34 | 966664 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

the market can track with inflation...hyperinflation is another matter all together. At that point most people will have lost almost all purchasing power...and by extension...corporations will have lost most customers....sales, revenues and profits will plummet.

but then this market...sure...I can see that a s a scenario for stocks to go parabolic.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:10 | 967071 Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Fair enough. Thanks for your reasoning.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:30 | 966648 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Give Laszlo yardstick.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:18 | 966604 gwar5
gwar5's picture

If the S&P doubles, and the dollar is cut in half, and I pay taxes on gains.... I'll be rich.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:20 | 966610 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:23 | 966619 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Vector math for retards.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:24 | 966622 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

S&P = gold spot.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:24 | 966624 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

What a fucking douchebag.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:39 | 966683 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

He read your gold plot

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:25 | 966625 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Next he will show that inertia will dictate the markets move higher because things in motion tend to stay in motion

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:11 | 967371 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Right you are. They tend to stay in  motion UNLESS ACTED UPON BY AN OUTSIDE SOURCE. How's about GRAVITY AND FRICTION (in our case RESISTANCE) !!!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:26 | 966635 jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

This does seem realistic at this rate. Since corrections dont seem to ever occur anymore and we just go higher and higher on lower and lower volume, its conceivable that we may get there without another correction.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:27 | 966636 vas deferens
vas deferens's picture


Once QE6 is announced the prediction may be understated.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:46 | 966642 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

that projection seems a bit gappy for my taste... but, shit, i mean, a new technical indicator to add to the all ready crowded toolkit... now known as the "Hung Laszlo".

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:33 | 966659 ivana
ivana's picture

this is what happens when puppeteers don't have good quality of reliable algorithm for CONTROLLABLE DOWNWARDING of markets.

Going up without volume was easy but controlling diving ... hmmmm - not so easy.

Think that ZH could post and advert or public tender for software programmers to help powerz and get really rich!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:36 | 966662 Corduroy
Corduroy's picture

I think I need a longer ruler or need to use smaller graphs - thats why I have been getting it wrong all this time

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:33 | 966663 Corduroy
Corduroy's picture

Thats dependent on the S&P 500 still operating in 2013.. :-)

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:36 | 966668 monkeyfaction
monkeyfaction's picture

They let people say any old crap on CNBC these days. I wouldn't be suprised to see my Grandma on there next week telling people to buy Netflix because her cat said so.


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:37 | 966675 jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

When you live in a world where stocks like FDX and DF can warn on earnings and zoom higher, then predictions like this seem extremely plausible.


The strange thing is that throughout history, whenever people have been this complacent, bad things have happened. I can't think of anything at this point that would be perceived as "bad" by this market.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:38 | 966679 Crispy
Crispy's picture

GC price action does not agree with any sort of hyper inflation scenario. New highs or bust...until then I do not agree.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:38 | 966680 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Tops aren't broadcasted...or are they?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:41 | 966688 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

I think he's calling one now.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:43 | 966695 Traveling Trader
Traveling Trader's picture

The extrapolation above as an analysis is absurd.....but so is the anti-gravity market at this point.   If inflation does go hyperbolic the FED's reaction will certainly dampen the market by the application of required

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:43 | 966697 Ted K
Ted K's picture


Usually I choose to attack you on substantive reasons---maybe for the first time ever you disappoint in the entertainment/Vaudevillian department, you tease us with the Kermit reference and no video/audio of Birinyi?!?!?!?!?!  It's a sad moment for ZeroHedge...I'm getting verklempt Mike Myers style now........

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:54 | 966747 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Coming shortly

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:21 | 966823 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Coming shortly sir!

There I fixed it for you. And don't make that mistake again, they'll have your head on a pike.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:16 | 967390 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

"Coming shortly sir."

No.  Coming shortly, sir, yes sir.

Thu, 02/17/2011 - 03:51 | 969438 Ted K
Ted K's picture

Thanks Tyler---5 stars for customer service.


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:45 | 966707 Salvatore CFA
Salvatore CFA's picture

One needs to listen to Laszlo in Dolby NR mode, else the tympanum will throw a fit.

S&P 2,800...yet another Mad Hungarian ( in deference to the great Al Hrabosky ).

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:46 | 966712 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Hungarians know something about hyperinflation. Hungary had the worst hyperinflation in history.

Hungary 1945-1946

Hungary went through the worst inflation ever recorded between the end of 1945 and July 1946. In 1944, the highest denomination was 1,000 peng?. By the end of 1945, it was 10,000,000 peng?. The highest denomination in mid-1946 was 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 peng?. .......

..... When the peng? was replaced in August 1946 by the forint, the total value of all Hungarian banknotes in circulation amounted to one tenth of one US cent.



Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:51 | 966729 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Be interesting to find out if the Hungarians got their central bank before or after this episode.


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:47 | 966716 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

y = mx + b(itchez!)

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:57 | 966742 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

+1 = m

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:19 | 966819 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

... and everything is in positive correlation with absolutely everything else!

God at work in His playground. The universe is a model of synchronous perfection. And so long as my options vest on schedule I too am a believer. 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:47 | 966719 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

birinyi. Thought of biryani when I read his name. Indian rice dish for those un-familiar.

And this work/call of his.... can he gets paid serious money.

I heard an interview with a wise old black woman on KPFA, Berkeley one day and she said "You can tel the state of a country by two things: Who they pay the most and where they keep their Elders".

The money side of the equation is a sad testament to America/world currently eh?

Wall Street and Sports and Media.

Go figure.


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:49 | 966725 Misean
Misean's picture

I get better results using the rounded side of a protractor.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 11:54 | 966748 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

"Kermit was earlier on CNBC, killing microphones with 20,000Hz+ chirping, delivering a presentation on the merits of using rulers as a market extrapolation tool"


Fucking epic.  LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:23 | 966829 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

While Dave Rosenberg was announcing the suckers rally Laz was calling the bottom


both were wrong but if one put their $ in Laz's boat and one with Dave the Bear who would be further ahead?


And with respect mocking the guys voice is like Yves Smith taking shots at Zero Hedge for that little issue back in the day - bad form all around


Laszlo Birinyi: S&P 750's the Bottom - Barron's Interview

January 04, 2009


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:26 | 966834 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Birinyi is a simpleton and cannot even use his tools correctly. Employing his same data set I calculated that S&P would be only 2,723 by September 4, 2013! He should return to making book down at the race tracks if he cannot do any better than this!


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:37 | 966873 poor fella
poor fella's picture


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:38 | 966875 poor fella
poor fella's picture

If Watson, feeling like a Bad Ass, keeps buying this market - El B. might be right.

Companies, continuing with layoffs and buybacks, surely will help too.

Apple should buy all but 25 shares, MONSTER bonus with a 13.5 Billion dollar shareprice!! No-brainer..

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:36 | 966878 99er
99er's picture


Caw...caw... Black Crows!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:43 | 966917 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

This Hungarian idiot doesnt even use logarithmic charts. If hes going to use crayons and rulers to predict stock market movements at least use the correct scale for long term charts.   I get S+P 3,800 , give or take , using the Full-Retard method and the right scaling chart.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:47 | 966934 billbengen
billbengen's picture

Hey, I remember this chart from Aerospace Engineering courses. This is what the trajectory of Apollo 2013 looked like just before the fuel cells blew out. As you recall, it did a spin around the moon and ended up back where it started.


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:25 | 967039 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

If all you know-it-all commenters heaping scorn on Birinyi are so effing smart, how come not one of you is talking about your own predictions?  It's a rhetorical question; the answer is because you're a bunch of losers who predicted the S&P down to 400 and missed the greatest stock rally in memory.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:34 | 967463 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

I still stand by my prediction that at some point during his presidency Obama will say, "It's not my fault!"

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:09 | 967050 Stimulus Billy
Stimulus Billy's picture

(1947) gian carlo menotti


The sun is falling and it lies in blood

The moon is weaving bandages of gold

Old black swan where oh where is my lover now


Torn and tattered is my bridal gown and my lamp is lost

With silver needles and with silver threads

The stars stitch a route for the dying sun

Old black swan where oh where is my lover now


I had given him a kiss and a golden ring

And a golden ring

I had given him a kiss of fire and a golden ring

Oh with silver needles and with silver threads

The stars stitch a route for the dying sun


Black wing o black wing take me down with you

Take me down with you take me down with you

Take me down with you

Old black swan take me down with you

I had given him a kiss of fire

Take me down with you

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:39 | 967230 simpleminds
simpleminds's picture

He could have drawn a similar line in 2000 and did that work out?


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:53 | 967294 Crispy
Crispy's picture

Whos the faggot that junked every single post?


Show your face faggot...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:07 | 967351 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Isn't this the guy who invented the Biro?

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 17:06 | 967969 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

Martin Armstrong says stocks are going to boom too.  I find it hard to believe but I respect what he has to say.

Anybody have any comments on Armstrong?



Sun, 06/05/2011 - 05:21 | 1340757 Grand Supercycle
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