Laszlo Birinyi's September 4, 2013 S&P Target: 2,854

Tyler Durden's picture

Laszlo Birinyi, the Hungarian famous for discovering such curious novel uses for a ruler such as i.e., a stock price forecast device, has just officially reached over into the twilight zone and pulled out his forecast for the S&P for 2013, September 4th to be precise, not 3rd not 5th, and it is, hold on to your hats, 2,854, or well over a double in just over 3 years. Bloomberg clarifies this particular prediction which is either pure idiocy or even purer brilliance: "While this ‘forecast’ is fraught with potential pitfalls, unseen events
and caveats,” investors should be optimistic about the U.S. stock
market, given its history, Birinyi wrote." While not sure what particular history Birinyi is referring to, it most likely is not the 50%+ plunge in the market in a year and a half, when it became all too clear for a few brief days, that the entire global financial system is one big ponzi.

From Bloomberg:

Birinyi said given how long the advances that began in 1962, 1982, 1990 and 2002 lasted, the current rally should continue another 32 months. Historical precedent shows that gains are largest in the first and last quarters of bull markets, according to research conducted by Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc. The first of this increase ended in April 2010, and the final quarter may start in July 2012, he said in a report e-mailed to clients today.

Birinyi, who analyzes historical charts and patterns to make forecasts, said in December that the S&P 500 will climb to 1,333 this year, joining money manager Leon Cooperman in citing higher earnings and valuations below historic levels. Earnings should advance 14 percent this year after they beat estimates in the three quarters reported so far for 2010, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Birinyi’s 2011 forecast compares with the 1,371 average of 11 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1,268.42 at 11:03 a.m. New York time today, after advancing 13 percent in 2010.

While we fail to see how someone who is an "expert" in analyzing historical charts and patterns to make forecasts, can cite fundamental reasons for a justification, we are confident that everyone will be holding their breath for the next three years. And while we would love for Laszlo to be correct, the only way this prediction will every come true, is if the US currency enter a period where it loses 100% of its value a day. In that case the stock market will hit not 2,854 but 2.8E666, a number that as Zimbabwe learned fast, has little practical use.

And before some may accuse Biriinyi of dementia, here is his terrific track record from a decade ago (h/t thetrading)

http://i.imgur.com/QRSxF.jpg

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tickhound's picture

Damn... "bingo" instead of "book it"

"Book it" currently in my top three contrarian indicators... running a close second to Burnett's "worldwide demand for us treasury debt"

Spalding_Smailes's picture

BAC up 60% this year, gold not so much ... Book it.

tmosley's picture

You just hold that.  Hope you can get out before it flash bankrupts.

tickhound's picture

Forecast for 2011 being the year insolvency is no longer bullish has been up'ed.

Salinger's picture

Bear in mind that Laz has been alot more accurate on equities than for example ahhh Rosie...

 

HarryWanger's picture

Exactly! And why is his prediction any more lunacy than the doomers here who constantly post Dow 5000 or below nonsense?

tickhound's picture

I see more failed "book it china rate hike, good jobs report, earnest economic recovery destroying metals and commodities" calls then I ever see "roubini dow 5000 inflation doesn't exist" calls. More popular delusion... wish I could trade it via etf.

traderjoe's picture

Can you cite specific examples? Performance numbers over time? Is this just your general impression?

Which have been the best performing asset classes over the last 10 years? Bonds, stocks, or gold?

Freebird's picture

There could be something about this one though...

Sorry could not link an ecPulse 2011 gold tech. forecast but its up on fxstreet.com for Elliot Wave followers

LongSoupLine's picture

A "CNBC contributor".  'nuff said.

Don Birnam's picture

Laszlo has a formidable tauran pedigree, having been one of Louie Rukeyser's favorite "Elves" for many a year -- and nary was Laszlo's "W$W" elfin caricature to be seen "thumbs down." 

Bam_Man's picture

Ah yes, those were the days.

If memory serves, Laszlo, Ralph Acompora and Mary Farrell (and later Liz Anne Saunders) were the perenially bullish "elves".

Marty Zweig, Lou Holland and Bob Stovall were the generally less predictable, if not more accurate ones.

Don Birnam's picture

+1

And woe unto any "elf" who dared announce him- or herself as a longer-term bear ( during the Great Tech Bubble ) -- ask Gail Dudack.

Bam_Man's picture

Thanks for that trip down memory lane.

October 16, 1987 is a very significant date. It marked the end of the last week where we actually had "free" markets here in the US. Twenty-three years later, look at where we are.

arm50's picture

just like the ZSE

NoLongerABagHolder's picture

Today is just another day to buy the f-in dip you f-in idiots.......

Bearster's picture

While it seems logical to assume that stocks "keep up" with inflation, as if one can take money supply and divide by stock prices and get some sort of constant...

...JUST IMAGINE TRYING TO RUN A BUSINESS IN A COLLAPSING DEMAND HYPERINFLATING DEPRESSION.

Think profits will "keep up" with inflation?  Think companies will keep up in the black ink?

 

Bearster's picture

Oh, and one other points.  10% of US GDP today is being borrowed or printed into existence.  What will happen when this unsustainable trend stops sustaining?

Depending on how much fixed cost a company has, a 10% decline in revenues could be a 50% decline in profits.

traderjoe's picture

Shhh...truth telling is not allowed...

TruthInSunshine's picture

The Birinyi top has been spotted & called.

2:00 pm may indeed hold interesting surprise(s).

goldmiddelfinger's picture

Laz has been supping at the trough of Byron Wein

knukles's picture

But but but but but....

They said it'd all been fixed, nothing was broke anymore and the band-aids all worked.
Golly gosh gee whiz.....

(squeezing real hard, grunting, wishing, wishing, wishing, blood rushing forsed to head, pounding temples, headache, dizzyness, uhhh uhhh uhhhhhhhh...  Oppps! Was that a....)

SheepDog-One's picture

S&P = 2,854, USD = -0-

Cleanclog's picture

Right.  We could easily see S&P 2,854 if US$ is worth 25% of today's value.  

Look at what S&P gains for 2010 were when valued in gold vs US$.  Same concept.  

Capital preservation remains the objective.  Have to be very careful what you "denominate" your capital in though.  Real estate in what currency, precious metals, stocks in what currency, etc.

Max Hunter's picture

Zackly!!

Predicting equities is a fool's game.. Money has to go somewhere. At the rate it's being printed, he could be right, but it certainly does not foretell a good economy..

Chartist's picture

Last I saw of Lazlo on CNBC, he didn't look too healthy....He's either buying his shirts 5 sizes too big, or he has serious health issues.

Salinger's picture

the voice - he should see an ENT (Bloomberg's Tom Keene as well)

traderjoe's picture

First it was green shoots and mustard seeds. Then it was the summer of recovery. Now we are two years into this 'recovery' with 10% official unemployment, $1.4 trillion fed deficits, and unprecedented money printing. Well alrighty then...

cougar_w's picture

Ah, but a recovery even with scary air-quotes is still trade-able.

In Other News: My eTrade account tells me this morning that I have a mystery 47 new stock options vested. This market better close in the green all week or I'll have no other choice but to devour someone.

traderjoe's picture

IMHO (and I'm not preaching), trading the Ponzi is participating in the Ponzi. Participating in the Ponzi is encouraging the Ponzi. I have eliminated my exposure to FRN's and have removed my consent to the system. Starve the Beast.

Bam_Man's picture

If the S&P = 2,854 as of 9/2013, then a gallon of gas = $9.00, a loaf of bread = $9.50 and a gallon of milk = $11.00, and it doesn't mean a damn thing.

Birinyi is clearly predicting a burst of hyperinflation, nothing more, nothing less. Hardly good news, unless you happen to be hopelessly buried in unpayable debts at present.

TruthInSunshine's picture

If a gallon of gas = $9.00, a loaf of bread = $9.50 and a gallon of milk = $11.00...

...then unemployment will officially be 25%+, and we'll officially be in a depression, regardless as to how many Benny Bucks are circulating and in what denominations.

rosiescenario's picture

"...unless you happen to be hopelessly buried in unpayable debts..."...along with most citizens, local and state governments, and the Feds.Who benefits most from inflation? Who owns the printing presses? How do we get extricated from the current mortgage disaster? Inflation would sure cure many ills and be a bonanza for us PM owners, especially those owning the PM producers...the mining companies.

Dick Darlington's picture

Laszlo seems to be as conservative as the hungarian households who loaded up swiss franc -denominated debt to buy their piece of heaven aka over-inflated dream house. Good luck for both.

lsbumblebee's picture

Is he the guy that measured his IQ by sitting on a ruler?

SheepDog-One's picture

When you start hearing ridiculous calls such as this, you know the upper atmosphere has been reached and time for gravity to come back into play.

cougar_w's picture

The power of the printing press meets the power of y = mx + b!

All I can say is: Don't cross the streams.

Total protonic reversal FTW, bitchez.

TruthInSunshine's picture

If Birinyi is going to 2,854, Abby Joseph Cohen will arrive soon to proclaim 3,710 by the same expiration date.

Everybody gets a free iTulip, today, also.

Happy iTulip day.

plocequ1's picture

To quote Emperor Joseph II, the musical king,... " Well, There it is."

inkt2002's picture

Laszlo Birinyi has always been spot on in the past.  Glad to seem him midly bullish the next three years.

Don Birnam's picture

Bring Acampora back to CNBC. Give him a show with Bartiromo; perhaps the set can be dressed in an informal fashion -- say, resembling a small Italian restaurant in Brooklyn, red and white checkered tablecloths, decanter of Gallo, breadsticks on the table and all that. The financial media need their own equivalent of "The Colbert Report."