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Laszlo Birinyi's September 4, 2013 S&P Target: 2,854

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Laszlo Birinyi, the Hungarian famous for discovering such curious novel uses for a ruler such as i.e., a stock price forecast device, has just officially reached over into the twilight zone and pulled out his forecast for the S&P for 2013, September 4th to be precise, not 3rd not 5th, and it is, hold on to your hats, 2,854, or well over a double in just over 3 years. Bloomberg clarifies this particular prediction which is either pure idiocy or even purer brilliance: "While this ‘forecast’ is fraught with potential pitfalls, unseen events
and caveats,” investors should be optimistic about the U.S. stock
market, given its history, Birinyi wrote." While not sure what particular history Birinyi is referring to, it most likely is not the 50%+ plunge in the market in a year and a half, when it became all too clear for a few brief days, that the entire global financial system is one big ponzi.

From Bloomberg:

Birinyi said given how long the advances that began in 1962, 1982, 1990 and 2002 lasted, the current rally should continue another 32 months. Historical precedent shows that gains are largest in the first and last quarters of bull markets, according to research conducted by Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc. The first of this increase ended in April 2010, and the final quarter may start in July 2012, he said in a report e-mailed to clients today.

Birinyi, who analyzes historical charts and patterns to make forecasts, said in December that the S&P 500 will climb to 1,333 this year, joining money manager Leon Cooperman in citing higher earnings and valuations below historic levels. Earnings should advance 14 percent this year after they beat estimates in the three quarters reported so far for 2010, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Birinyi’s 2011 forecast compares with the 1,371 average of 11 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1,268.42 at 11:03 a.m. New York time today, after advancing 13 percent in 2010.

While we fail to see how someone who is an "expert" in analyzing historical charts and patterns to make forecasts, can cite fundamental reasons for a justification, we are confident that everyone will be holding their breath for the next three years. And while we would love for Laszlo to be correct, the only way this prediction will every come true, is if the US currency enter a period where it loses 100% of its value a day. In that case the stock market will hit not 2,854 but 2.8E666, a number that as Zimbabwe learned fast, has little practical use.

And before some may accuse Biriinyi of dementia, here is his terrific track record from a decade ago (h/t thetrading)

http://i.imgur.com/QRSxF.jpg

 

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Tue, 01/04/2011 - 13:56 | 846944 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Bingo'

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:12 | 846994 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Damn... "bingo" instead of "book it"

"Book it" currently in my top three contrarian indicators... running a close second to Burnett's "worldwide demand for us treasury debt"

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:29 | 847045 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

BAC up 60% this year, gold not so much ... Book it.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:39 | 847067 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whatever, BAC butt-boy.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:41 | 847068 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You just hold that.  Hope you can get out before it flash bankrupts.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:52 | 847107 system failure
system failure's picture

LMFAO

SO

TRUE

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:25 | 847211 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Forecast for 2011 being the year insolvency is no longer bullish has been up'ed.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:48 | 847099 Salinger
Salinger's picture

Bear in mind that Laz has been alot more accurate on equities than for example ahhh Rosie...

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:04 | 847144 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Exactly! And why is his prediction any more lunacy than the doomers here who constantly post Dow 5000 or below nonsense?

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:39 | 847261 tickhound
tickhound's picture

I see more failed "book it china rate hike, good jobs report, earnest economic recovery destroying metals and commodities" calls then I ever see "roubini dow 5000 inflation doesn't exist" calls. More popular delusion... wish I could trade it via etf.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:47 | 847296 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Can you cite specific examples? Performance numbers over time? Is this just your general impression?

Which have been the best performing asset classes over the last 10 years? Bonds, stocks, or gold?

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 13:58 | 846947 99er
Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:13 | 847001 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Putting this here, too. I hope it helps.

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/support-levels.html

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:34 | 847017 Freebird
Freebird's picture

There could be something about this one though...

Sorry could not link an ecPulse 2011 gold tech. forecast but its up on fxstreet.com for Elliot Wave followers

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:00 | 846952 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

A "CNBC contributor".  'nuff said.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:16 | 847006 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Laszlo has a formidable tauran pedigree, having been one of Louie Rukeyser's favorite "Elves" for many a year -- and nary was Laszlo's "W$W" elfin caricature to be seen "thumbs down." 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:40 | 847064 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Ah yes, those were the days.

If memory serves, Laszlo, Ralph Acompora and Mary Farrell (and later Liz Anne Saunders) were the perenially bullish "elves".

Marty Zweig, Lou Holland and Bob Stovall were the generally less predictable, if not more accurate ones.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:44 | 847081 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

+1

And woe unto any "elf" who dared announce him- or herself as a longer-term bear ( during the Great Tech Bubble ) -- ask Gail Dudack.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:51 | 847105 Salinger
Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:15 | 847129 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Thanks for that trip down memory lane.

October 16, 1987 is a very significant date. It marked the end of the last week where we actually had "free" markets here in the US. Twenty-three years later, look at where we are.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 13:59 | 846953 arm50
arm50's picture

just like the ZSE

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:51 | 847102 NoLongerABagHolder
NoLongerABagHolder's picture

Today is just another day to buy the f-in dip you f-in idiots.......

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:01 | 846954 Bearster
Bearster's picture

While it seems logical to assume that stocks "keep up" with inflation, as if one can take money supply and divide by stock prices and get some sort of constant...

...JUST IMAGINE TRYING TO RUN A BUSINESS IN A COLLAPSING DEMAND HYPERINFLATING DEPRESSION.

Think profits will "keep up" with inflation?  Think companies will keep up in the black ink?

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:02 | 846960 Bearster
Bearster's picture

Oh, and one other points.  10% of US GDP today is being borrowed or printed into existence.  What will happen when this unsustainable trend stops sustaining?

Depending on how much fixed cost a company has, a 10% decline in revenues could be a 50% decline in profits.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:08 | 846978 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Shhh...truth telling is not allowed...

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:02 | 846957 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Birinyi top has been spotted & called.

2:00 pm may indeed hold interesting surprise(s).

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:03 | 846963 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Laz has been supping at the trough of Byron Wein

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:50 | 847098 knukles
knukles's picture

But but but but but....

They said it'd all been fixed, nothing was broke anymore and the band-aids all worked.
Golly gosh gee whiz.....

(squeezing real hard, grunting, wishing, wishing, wishing, blood rushing forsed to head, pounding temples, headache, dizzyness, uhhh uhhh uhhhhhhhh...  Oppps! Was that a....)

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:03 | 846965 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

S&P = 2,854, USD = -0-

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:22 | 847026 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Right.  We could easily see S&P 2,854 if US$ is worth 25% of today's value.  

Look at what S&P gains for 2010 were when valued in gold vs US$.  Same concept.  

Capital preservation remains the objective.  Have to be very careful what you "denominate" your capital in though.  Real estate in what currency, precious metals, stocks in what currency, etc.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:35 | 847057 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Zackly!!

Predicting equities is a fool's game.. Money has to go somewhere. At the rate it's being printed, he could be right, but it certainly does not foretell a good economy..

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:05 | 846967 Chartist
Chartist's picture

Last I saw of Lazlo on CNBC, he didn't look too healthy....He's either buying his shirts 5 sizes too big, or he has serious health issues.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:52 | 847108 Salinger
Salinger's picture

the voice - he should see an ENT (Bloomberg's Tom Keene as well)

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:04 | 846969 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

First it was green shoots and mustard seeds. Then it was the summer of recovery. Now we are two years into this 'recovery' with 10% official unemployment, $1.4 trillion fed deficits, and unprecedented money printing. Well alrighty then...

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:12 | 846990 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Well said traderjoe.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:18 | 847012 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Ah, but a recovery even with scary air-quotes is still trade-able.

In Other News: My eTrade account tells me this morning that I have a mystery 47 new stock options vested. This market better close in the green all week or I'll have no other choice but to devour someone.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:26 | 847040 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

IMHO (and I'm not preaching), trading the Ponzi is participating in the Ponzi. Participating in the Ponzi is encouraging the Ponzi. I have eliminated my exposure to FRN's and have removed my consent to the system. Starve the Beast.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:04 | 846970 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

If the S&P = 2,854 as of 9/2013, then a gallon of gas = $9.00, a loaf of bread = $9.50 and a gallon of milk = $11.00, and it doesn't mean a damn thing.

Birinyi is clearly predicting a burst of hyperinflation, nothing more, nothing less. Hardly good news, unless you happen to be hopelessly buried in unpayable debts at present.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:17 | 846984 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If a gallon of gas = $9.00, a loaf of bread = $9.50 and a gallon of milk = $11.00...

...then unemployment will officially be 25%+, and we'll officially be in a depression, regardless as to how many Benny Bucks are circulating and in what denominations.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:12 | 847167 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"...unless you happen to be hopelessly buried in unpayable debts..."...along with most citizens, local and state governments, and the Feds.Who benefits most from inflation? Who owns the printing presses? How do we get extricated from the current mortgage disaster? Inflation would sure cure many ills and be a bonanza for us PM owners, especially those owning the PM producers...the mining companies.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:04 | 846971 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Laszlo seems to be as conservative as the hungarian households who loaded up swiss franc -denominated debt to buy their piece of heaven aka over-inflated dream house. Good luck for both.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:05 | 846973 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Is he the guy that measured his IQ by sitting on a ruler?

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:08 | 846982 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When you start hearing ridiculous calls such as this, you know the upper atmosphere has been reached and time for gravity to come back into play.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:13 | 846998 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The power of the printing press meets the power of y = mx + b!

All I can say is: Don't cross the streams.

Total protonic reversal FTW, bitchez.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:28 | 847046 10044
10044's picture

More like y=b

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:15 | 847002 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If Birinyi is going to 2,854, Abby Joseph Cohen will arrive soon to proclaim 3,710 by the same expiration date.

Everybody gets a free iTulip, today, also.

Happy iTulip day.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:26 | 847011 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

To quote Emperor Joseph II, the musical king,... " Well, There it is."

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:20 | 847020 inkt2002
inkt2002's picture

Laszlo Birinyi has always been spot on in the past.  Glad to seem him midly bullish the next three years.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:21 | 847024 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Laszlo ByronWiens a lot?

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:22 | 847025 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Bring Acampora back to CNBC. Give him a show with Bartiromo; perhaps the set can be dressed in an informal fashion -- say, resembling a small Italian restaurant in Brooklyn, red and white checkered tablecloths, decanter of Gallo, breadsticks on the table and all that. The financial media need their own equivalent of "The Colbert Report."

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:24 | 847030 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hilarious.

All these guys must be on acid.

Joey Battipaglia now a permabear.

Lazlo now a superbull.

Barton Biggs the ultimate flip flopper.

These guys are about as useless as the sports wagering infomercial touts on Fox Sports Radio 570 in Los Angeles.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:39 | 847062 thepigman
thepigman's picture

I'll bet on Battipaglia. On the fundmentals,

p/e s are twice as high as they oughtta

be.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:53 | 847111 Salinger
Salinger's picture

I always get Batipaglia confused with Ritholtz

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:03 | 847140 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

How did I know you were from California, LA at that. Home of the dumbest fucking people on the planet.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:27 | 847039 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

IOI ISHTENEM LASZO!!! What the fuck did you have for breakfast? Some Soros Dick?!?!

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:30 | 847050 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Laszlo's never been not bullish. I

guess earnings will triple in 3 years

at 2% GDP to justify this? These guys

will say anything....anything.... when

bagholders are in short supply.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:38 | 847060 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'When bagholders are in short supply' thats the whole story right there.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:44 | 847083 thepigman
thepigman's picture

42 million on food stamps, 10%

unemployment, residential and CRE

totally dead, and they lie right to our

faces.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:33 | 847055 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Just heard on local radio:

Man bludgeons shop owner to death after being unable to retrieve silver coins he pawned.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:38 | 847061 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh man, bet I'd have done the same thing myself.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:40 | 847071 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Ditto.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:35 | 847058 miker
miker's picture

Comparison to Rukeyser era predictions worthless.  Everyone was high on stocks back then and Rukeyser was the absolute worst for biasing his guest list.

I don't know what the peak number will be or when but it will be alot higher than today.  The Fed/Treasury is making certain of that.  Expect a continued ramp in equities well into 2011 and perhaps 2012.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:40 | 847069 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

So you're saying essentially that there will be a buyer for Apple at $800 and for KB Homes at $300?

Predictions of the government ramping the stock market higher, in perpetuity, certainly do bring home the dire predictions of BOTH hyper-deflationists and hyper-inflationists that...

...it won't matter which way, because either way...we're fucked.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:42 | 847080 Hondo
Hondo's picture

What a fool.....

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:47 | 847089 monopoly
monopoly's picture

yup, just goes to show none of us, not even Tyler, lol, knows where this market is going. Just a crap shoot. Maybe you hit 4 stars on the slot machine here in Reno and get lucky.

Not what I call investing.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:46 | 847090 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Go green and roll over again, you pig market.  Need another fuqing dip to buy.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:46 | 847091 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

somebody's painting the indices 666...

http://finviz.com/

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:46 | 847092 The Count
The Count's picture

Please... I have had it with this kind of prediction. We cannot even predict the weather more than a week in advance with any certainty. And this guy thinks he knows were the S&P will be in 2 years? Hello, so many unforeseeable events can happen until then. And by definition, unforeseeable means stuff than nobody can foresee. Capice?

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:49 | 847101 partimer1
partimer1's picture

anyone can pull a number out of their ass and justify with a lot graphs and figures, making it more believable. after all that's how they sell subscriptions.  in reality, they are all bullsh*t, and they all smell the same.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:56 | 847116 qp
qp's picture

What  psychedelic compounds is this guy taking?

*hallucinating*

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:56 | 847118 chart_gazer
chart_gazer's picture

he may be wrong but i remember this dude on the tube when the s&p was in the high 600"s in mar 09.  he said the s&P would be at 1300 within 2 years. thought he was nuts then too.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 14:55 | 847119 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Interestingly enough, this source lists his predictions as "above average" at 52%:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/laszlo-birinyi/

Of course if one of his predictions is off that hardly puts a dent into the calculation.  If I could mimic his scratchy voice I would say "I will have what he is drinking."

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:00 | 847126 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

'Above average' in the financial world = more than 50%.

In other words, flip a coin and pull a guess forth from one's ass.

What a sick joke of a racket. They make the mafia look honorable by comparison.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:03 | 847138 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

.....and a Big Mac (for those able to afford one) will cost $9.99....

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:08 | 847149 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Top is in then.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:08 | 847151 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Oh damn, the POMO pump, and bids not hit.  2 weeks til next opportunity.

TNA @70.50, not executed and AVL@7.06 missed by a nickel.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:10 | 847157 Salinger
Salinger's picture
Enjoy the Sucker's Rally, Says Merrill's Rosenberg (SPX 784)

Mar 19, 2009

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/yftt_211995/Enjoy-the-Sucke...

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:27 | 847215 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

Way too conservative-10000 S and P is more likely, with 15,000 gold and 1000 silver.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:30 | 847227 gwar5
gwar5's picture

In nominal dollars he might be right

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 15:35 | 847246 jimgcpa
jimgcpa's picture

I predict 2011 is the year Goldbugs get Corncobbed.  LMFAO!!

 

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:22 | 847380 RicktheDick
RicktheDick's picture

What's disconcerting to me isn't that he makes a prediction like this, it's that he has no merit or underlying fundamental basis for claiming such a substantial run-up is possible; other than the "historical resilience" of the U.S. markets. Could there be some life altering, once in a generation event that rights the ship? Of course there could. But with nothing on the horizon to indicate that such an event is possible you have to actually rely on concrete data to make predictions, not just whimsical speculation. - - Wouldn't it be great if I got to bang Jessica Alba? I predict I will. If Birinyi can make ridiculous predictions, then damn it so can I!       

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