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Latest Economic Deterioration Confirmation: Philly Fed Plunges To 5.1, Consensus At 10.0, Previous At 8.0
Some very troubling language in the release: Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continues to expand in July but has slowed over the past two months. Surveyed firms reported a decline in new orders this month compared with June. Employment showed a slight improvement this month. The survey’s broad indicators of future activity continue to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism has waned notably in recent months.The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading of 8 in June to 5.1 in July. The index, although still positive and suggesting growth, has fallen for two consecutive months (see Chart). Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month: The new orders index fell 13 points, to its first negative reading in 12 months, and the shipments index decreased 10 points but remained positive. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders fell and were in negative territory this month.
The index is now back to mid-2009 levels.
Deterioration virtually across the board, especially at the all important New Orders category.
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Market turn around coming. Wait for it. With all the negative news this morning, a turnaround rally has to be in the works.
Yep. Over/under for ^DJI close is -20.
Don't get in front of it.
betting citi is much worse than JPM, earnings tomorrow..dipping toe in the short pool.
Maybe. It is a touch oversold, opex tomorrow means we are less likely to really collapse - too many puts out there.
But, after the puts expire....
What is the Philly Fed? somebody inlighten me please :)
http://justfuckinggoogleit.com/
It's part of the fed that deals with growth projections. It's a different department office as it were. The fed that prints money hand over fist and promptly ignores the philly fed is located in DC.
A Bernanke sandwich with cheese and onions.
Thank you, I'm here all week. Try theBernanke sandwich with cheese and onions.
Seriously it's one of twelve regional reserve banks,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank
A race horse??
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442713&cust=bloomberg&year=2010#top
What's truly amazing is how far away from consensus (12.0) the actual number (5.1) was. This is the early sign of the classic excuse being readied of "I never saw it coming".
Exactly. This is what the start of a recession looks like.
it never ended!!!
And it started in what year?
Yeah, go back a way, a long way.
/roflmao/
New Normal: Markets Are Inversely Proportional To Economic Data. -- New Econ 101
Just for you, Hog.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5D_jQVG40o&feature=player_embedded
+1
GBR!
is JPM still bidding up the Euro?
As Santelli just said: 30-year approaching 4%, 10-year about to go under 3%. Let's see how the PPT handles that...
The CNBS spin: "Philly Fed Survey at 5.1, showing that growth is firming at a slower pace."
these guys are brilliant ...u have to admit...
Yea, that's hilarious. Last night the headline was "China growth slows, as Beijing intended".
Unreal.
It is amazing how they keep spinning the spin.
Hoe Brothers Investment Management June 27, 2010 Letter Introduction
"Before we get to the meat of the investment note we want to mention one thing first. Since the world is full of experts that you can find on CNBC, Fox News, Bloomberg, Wall Street, Ivy League Universities and politicians, the potential client has a vast array of advice at his disposal that can make him or her financially secure, right? We will let you decide that but we wanted to give you a few tips that we have found useful in trying to decrypt the news streams that are floating all over the place.
We would advise you to be skeptical of everyone and everything when it comes to your money—that includes us. Everyone you see or hear from has different incentives to tell you what to buy or sell. CNBC has a very optimistic viewpoint about where markets are headed because if they do not then advertisers (financial institutions) who buy commercial time (and place their analysts on their show to be interviewed) will not spend ad dollars.
The analysts on the shows are helping their banks to sell mutual funds and other investment products for which they will receive a future bonus or commission from. Politicians will undoubtedly promise you the moon and stars to get re-elected. CEOs of publicly traded companies will most likely not talk about their companies in a negative light when part of their compensation depends on stock options and a higher stock price. Consequently, we hope you remain cognizant of these incentives in choosing where and with whom to place your money."
The chocolate ration has been increased to 20 grams!!!
but its half wax now.
Look, the CNBC crew thinks they're single handedly preventing a collapse in the economy...
All part of doing God's work...
You bring up an excellent point. While we may yell and scream at these people and think of them as "evil" or "greedy" or whatever we need to marginalize them, in fact many of them do see themselves as part of the solution. That they are helping the nation rather than enabling the thieving and Ponzi.
The vast majority of enablers are not sociopath personalities but simply frightened little minds desperately trying to cope with the crazies while bringing home the bacon. Arrogant or abusive behaviour is often a sign of a person compensating for their own fear or sense of impotence.
We have all justified bad behaviour at one point of another. It's only a matter of degree between stealing a can of tuna fish because we have no money and stealing from our employer because we think we're under paid and not appreciated.
I've spent a great deal of time studying psychology and the human capacity for self deception is always much greater than we can imagine.
In the instant, every experience is perfection, and must be danced. Otherwise, we can not be whole. At that instant, it is never self-deception. It is only after, when comparing to whom one is today, in the eyes of others, or in the eyes of social morals that someone may self accuse or others may accuse. Then excuses for behavior start and concepts like self deception get coined. And there is nothing wrong with that either. Its a part of the total, too.
In the moment when the partner is being beaten by the spouse, it is perfect. The partner needs that beating and the spouse needs to give it. It is only after they have separated and the partner is in therapy that the partner, the therapist, or society (courts,etc) may come to the conclusion that the partner deceived themselves. This is post circumstance CD! LOL!
OK, I admit it. I don't get it. So please explain. Because I don't see how any living creature "needs" to be abused in any way, shape or form. But like I said, I don't get it so please explain.
You seem to have left our the abusive spouse LeBalance. You separated the abused partner from the abusive spouse so the abusive spouse isn't suddenly shoehorned back into the "partner" category. And I don't think the abusive spouse should/would come under the "etc" category.
I do not see any experience here that exists as something "other." As in, if it exists it is part of the whole. To be a whole person one must be all things at one time or other. In terms of the relationship, if one half is in surrender the other half must be one that supplies all the remainder, and that is what it needs. To say that no one should abuse anyone is to miss the greater joke. There is no abuse possible, because every action is supply to what the other (half) needs. Why else would they be there? To accept something that they do not need?
How could an action take place that was not in the programming of the dreamer whose dream we are experiencing?
If we wish (one day) to be able to host this universe in our dreams for others to enjoy, how can we not sample (many many times) every part of the space, performing every action in every way.
Looking at everything and saying: "I am that."
My $0.00002.
OK, now I understand what you're trying to say.
http://www.awakeninthedream.com/
my July 29 Puts are saved ....arent they.......any way ...what is this ...Philly FEd....Philadelphia Fed???
Philly is Fed Cheesesteaks mostly. They die young.
Cheesesteak. Yum. Breakfast of champions. Pat's or Geno's, either one.
With?
Report shows evidence of a Double Whammy Economy: Prices paid = +13.1, Prices received = -8.4
Businesses getting drawn and quartered like consumers by concurrent deflation and inflation that results from Monetarism gone wild.
Looking at the NY and Philly Fed reports, it is little wonder that Benron was doing his best impression of a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs in his last press conference with Owebama...
Looks like the 2nd derivative is getting worse. Time to switch to the third. Hmmm....remind me again, what is the third derivative?
Oh, now I remember. Hope! Is that still expanding? Could someone bring up a chart of hope for a round table discussion? :>)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=000876.SZ
The the third derivatives are hope, change, fairness, compromise, and sacrifice. You will hear about all five in the next teleprOmpter show. Bet on it.
You can track all five equally weighted on the Human Slavery Index, but it looks like any other hockey stick chart since about 1910.
LOL.
I'm taking bets they are delaying sealing the oil leak so the "ceremonial switch" can be thrown by Barry on live TV at 7:00 PM.
Now that's good theater ;-)
Don't laugh... the third derivative is called "the jerk"
...as in the type that occurs at the end of a rope?
That is a very good way to put it...
Putting on my nerd cap, third derivatives came up in classical electrodynamics when they had to account for the finite velocity of light and the charged particles radiating. T'was messy stuff that
Fourth derivatives arise when looking at the deflection of a solid object under a load.
Now back to our regular programming
"Fourth derivatives arise when looking at the deflection of a solid object under a load."
Sounds like the supposedly solid stock market deflecting under the load of mutual fund outflows. Only in this case it defied all logic and physics and deflected up for the past 2 weeks.
So...what time will the Dow turn positive today? I'll guess 3:25 EDT
I'll go with 3:46.
Shit...amending forward. I'll now say 2:17 EDT
Michelle,
My Dow chart shows the DOW crossing into positive at 3:46 PM, if only briefly.
How did you do that? :>)
Right on...
1st derivative = velocity = change in position
2nd derivative = acceleration = change in velocity
3rd derivative = jerk = change in acceleration
If you accelerate your car smoothly, you should feel no jerk. If your car slams into a tree, you will feel a lot of jerk, because you are going from 0 acceleration to a lot of acceleration (more correctly, deceleration, which is negative acceleration.)
Are we playing in the land of skewness and kurtosis yet?
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda35b.htm
noone mentions Europe anymore so we must be ok, the stress tests were a success after all.
" firming at a slower pace."
Ha!
Yea, thats what I say about my wifes hooters after 30 years of bliss.
And what does your wife say about your.....um.....equipment? :>)
"And what does your wife say about your.....um.....equipment?" :>)
...a downward bias
double.
to answer that look at a trendline of the S+P since April
Tyler, that's a glass half empty type of post.
Now one can clearly see with ones naked eye that it would have to fall quite a bit to get to those nasty 08/early 09 numbers.
It's all good folks.
Found the Fed's first line in the sand today....1080.
I think Demon/Dimon won't let their ugly profits to go unnoticed. Watch for JPM push euro all the way to 1.2940
Going to be tough sledding for banks now. The economy cannot expand if they lend and their only option is to lend to the unqualified which would serve no purpose since we will simply have a repeat of blowing bubbles and false prices and since those new loans could never be securitized as Triple A they are just holding onto all the taxpayer cash Ben keeps throwing at them.
Evidently their trading revenues are not as jacked up as previously since many are wise to the game. The ramp jobs only took us so far on no volume so down we go again as they try to lock in profits on their ramps. Ben will never give them QE unless the markets et pummeled so down we go.
So basically we are in a feedback loop.
1. Economy goes down.
2. TPTB rabble about stimulus and QE
3. Fed makes a "surprise" QE announcement.
4. Markets go up on QE.
5. lather, rinse, and repeat.
Idiot Doug Kass still thinks its a natural pull back..............as vol dries up they will try and run it again
In June we had a week long run-up, followed by 5 days of sideways movement, and a crash on a Monday.
We just had a week long run-up, followed by 2 days of sideways trading. If they pull a stick save today and trading is flat for the rest of the week, I'm shorting (more) into the close on Friday.
-The Fed owns the Phillies???
The bastards are everywhere!
Agree. After option expiry, lots of people buying puts means dealers have to sell futures. In thin markets, that can be a big push lower.
The yield curve would be inverted if we had not zirp.. no demand in the Economy.
Apparently the businesses surveyed are expecting some form of QE2 to take the coming glut of Chinese inventory off their hands.
Philadelphia has been bummed out since my Blackhawks beat them for the Stanley Cup.
Don't worry, Krugman says future debt servicing concerns are overstated.
With Pending Home sales suggesting a catastrophic drop in Existing Home Sales I can't help but wonder if the real reason for the engineered rallies is to provide a cushion for when some horrific housing data comes out next week. Perhaps they smelled this coming too.
"And what does your wife say about your.....um.....equipment? :>)"
Lost it all to a Bouncing Betty in the Delta, Booh(m) Ya
I started this thread claiming a market turn around was ahead. This is the most blatant bullshit market one could imagine. Is there anyone breathing that believes this market is not a sham? Anyone who believe's this is not a computer, bankster controlled crock of shit, it full of same.
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