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Latest NAHB Confidence Number Edges Down To 16, Misses Consensus, Lowest Since June
The National Association Of Home Builders just reported a December number of 16 that was not only lower than consensus estiamtes (18) but the lowest since June. There goes the last green shoot. The market (without looking) should be up on this news.
December 15, 2009 - Builder
confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes receded
one point to 16 in December as continued weakness in the economy and
job markets weighed on consumers’ potential home buying plans,
according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI),
released today.
“From
an affordability standpoint, rarely has there been a better time in
history to purchase a home, thanks to record low interest rates,
attractive prices, and of course the recent extension and expansion of
the home buyer tax credit,” said Joe Robson, Chairman of the National
Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa,
Okla. “However, builders are not seeing the full impact of these
conditions on buyer demand, partly because awareness of the latest
incentives is still building, and partly because of concerns about job
security and other economic woes.”
“As
we anticipated, this is shaping up to be a bumpy recovery period for
the housing market,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While
some families may be just starting to factor the expanded tax credit
into their potential home buying plans, many are hesitating because of
the poor economy. At the same time, tight lending conditions for both
consumers and home builders continue to pose considerable obstacles on
the road to a sustained housing and economic recovery.”
Derived
from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20
years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder
perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations
for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also
asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very
high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are
then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number
over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than
poor.
The
December HMI fell one point to 16, its lowest point since June of this
year. Two out of three component indexes also were down, with a
one-point decline to 16 registered for current sales conditions and a
two-point decline to 26 registered for sales expectations in the next
six months. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers
remained unchanged for a third consecutive month, at 13.
Regionally,
December’s HMI results were somewhat mixed. The Northeast posted a
three point gain to 23, while the West posted a one-point gain to 19,
the South registered no change at 17, and the Midwest posted a
two-point decline, to 12.
This is what the complete lack of any improvement in homebuilding conditions looks like:
And this is how homebuilders expect future single-family sales to occur.
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I'm a home builder in Dallas, Texas and my RSDallas Housing Market Index (HMI) registers a -50 for homes priced from $1 Million & Above; -25 for homes priced from $450 to $999 thousand; 0 for homes priced from $300 to 449 thousand and I guess I buy the 16 for homes priced below $300,000.
Recovery......Not yet!
Who cares! We have plenty of homes.
You appear to be a home builder turned economist, searching for the truth on ZH. LoL
Try energy not McMansions, you're in Texas after all.
Bouncing along the bottom.
& This was during a rising stock market, record low Mrtg rates and 8k Tax credits.
Someone must of made an error with the data - can't be right - Cramer called the housing market bottom in June
gotta admit the Fed is keeping a pretty damn good bid under the spx. i am 99% sure this is for xmas sales and after december 24th, all bets are off. until QE v.2.0 that is.
Absolutely. Breaking News could print that the White House is ablaze and the RLX would rally 2%.
For God's sake, there's s*** loads of empty houses on the market why build more?? These morons are dumber than monkeys
I asked Steve Liesman about this and he said that consensus estimates would be 15 if you subtracted 3 from the original number so actually if you do the math this was "better than expected".
clearly, this is a victory for the bulls.
Thank you Bob Pisani.
“From an affordability standpoint, rarely has there been a better time in history to purchase a home, thanks to record low interest rates, attractive prices, and of course the recent extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit,” said Joe Robson, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla."
People are not buying homes because they understand the exact opposite, that it is a horrendous time to buy a house. In California, you have to be out of your mind to buy a house.
New home construction? I saw a guy assemble three large cardboard boxes into a configuration that kept him and all his worldly posessions out of the snow in Milwaukee this past weekend. He looked pretty confident (or he might have been a drunk -- I can't know for sure).
Dear Grim Reaper,
So far this year you have taken away my favorite dancer Michael Jackson, my favorite actor Patrick Swayze, my favorite singer Stephen Gately and my favorite actress Farrah Fawcett.
Just so you know, my favorite politician is Barack Obama.
Regards,
Anon...