Le Figaro Reports French Banks Propose "Voluntary" 30 Year Debt Rollover, However With DOAing 30%-50% Implied Haircut

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Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:23 | 1402743 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Bad news predicted for second half '11.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43534613

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:44 | 1402820 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Jan is the most polite guy employed at the Squid. He's essentially saying "More QE, please" At its arrival he'll publish a paper entitled "Growth on the Horizon" which will be a nice wink to the Bernank. Also potentially, an HJ scandal may be involved. Nil admirari- proper wisdom for life.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:16 | 1402910 snowball777
snowball777's picture

A self-fellating ouroboros squid...how lovely.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:15 | 1403029 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

The franco-german banking cartel is about to strike again. With the NYSE now under control of Deutsche Borse and the algo testing phase over, we are in for a real SHTF scenario, courtesy of the idiots at Clearstream:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearstream

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:17 | 1403400 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Isn't that what happens when you don't get enough vitamins?

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:17 | 1403033 max2205
max2205's picture

Sure more QE which will flow to the ECB......

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 20:59 | 1404153 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the ECB are parched and need someones liquidity!

...brilliant job by Trichet though and sorry to see him leave office at the peak of the ECB's and EU's bankrupt shell game for senile Eurocrat ideologists

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:18 | 1402901 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Surprised that they haven't proposed their great-great granddaughters hymens? These goofs are getting VERY dangerous in their implicit acknowledgement of desperation that goes so deep as to open the door to ANYTHING.

Think crack whore.

Or perhaps better yet think Pimp/dealer.

These fucks know the game is over.

The pivot point is public reaction to the naked emperor.

?????????

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:25 | 1402934 knukles
knukles's picture

Their great grandaughter's hymens are the collateral. 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:19 | 1403285 oldman
oldman's picture

The public has already accepted default. The public's reaction is probably the same as it was to taxing the american public for the losses incurred in the 'sub-prime crisis': another non-event because there is nothing anyone will DO about it. The default is already priced into the markets because it is the default of the public at large for not having any capacity to affect a different outcome. WE have defaulted.

Maybe this is wrong-thinking on my part----we will find out some day.

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:24 | 1403290 oldman
oldman's picture

The public has already accepted default. The public's reaction is probably the same as it was to taxing the american public for the losses incurred in the 'sub-prime crisis': another non-event because there is nothing anyone will DO about it. The default is already priced into the markets because it is the default of the public at large for not having any capacity to affect a different outcome. WE have defaulted.

Maybe this is wrong-thinking on my part----we will find out some day.

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:29 | 1402931 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Who is the Mother#&ing junker? I seriously want to know. If I have learned anything from ZH it would be that you MUST have the courage to reveal yourself. DO NOT just 'pussy' junk!

Show up and fight bitch.

(and as an asside, if it is you P.K, I wouldn't trade my life in 'poverty' for your elitist hell EVER. I know about delayed gratification. Mine will not be smuggness.) Love it while you got Ponzi bitch.

Hang 'em high.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1402755 Atomizer
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:36 | 1402951 ratso
ratso's picture

The fact that these type of proposals are being floated says that the Greek Bond question is far from settled.  Individual Euro countries are becoming less Euro centric and more nationalistic.  This pendulum has just begun to swing away from the Euro.  There is also a continuing recalculation about what the haircut consequences will be. In the mean time, all the banks in question are continuing to improve their balance sheets in preparation for the worst case scenario.  Nothing is clear about how this will resolve over the next 12 months regardless of the reassurances  the ECB, the IMF and the various Euro finance minsters give.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:11 | 1403028 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the faux precision of these financial proposals as the underlying securities continue to slide toward the abyss reminds me of the inch by inch revelation of the catastrophe at fukushima (what a name) with the obfuscating elaborate plans for amelioration now come to naught. 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1402757 malikai
malikai's picture

Hmm.. To haircut or to haircut. Such tough choices they face.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:45 | 1402821 etrader
etrader's picture

Seems coordinated from last weeks meeting(s).

The UK  banks will be urged by the Treasury to take multimillion pound losses as part of Europe-wide plans to prevent a catastrophic meltdown of the Greek financial system

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/25/greece-debt-british-banks

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:54 | 1402841 malikai
malikai's picture

Another worry is that Britain's banks and hedge funds have written multibillion-pound insurance contracts – credit default swaps – that would be triggered if Greece defaults.

Osbourne may be able to tell the banks to take it in the pooper, maybe. But that won't stop the liquidation the hedge funds will be forced into.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:35 | 1402796 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

I'll ask here, since I didn't get an answer anywhere else; what are the chances of Paulson (and other like BH, RenTech etc etc) being synthetically long periphery?

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:45 | 1402826 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Excellent thought CB! That might be one big piece of the puzzle?

Not much else makes any sense in this mess. I think only an insider 

would know before any action?

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:51 | 1402847 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

I mean were the likes of Paulson and Brevan Howard (just to name the two most likely candidates) underwriting GRE/periphery CDS into the weakness this whole time? Paulson said in a statement he has being playing GRE since Q1 of '10. My question is; what was the trade; synthetic long with swaption hedges on SOVX/bespoke basket, or just covering on the dips? It would explain some of that -20% ytd performance. The collateral calls alone he would've received would account for 25% of that negative performance. 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:24 | 1402922 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

As ZH has pointed out repeatedly in the past when debunking popular idiocy on the CDS boogeyman, a short CDS position, courtesy of the CTD basis, would be net cash positive upon settlement.

That said, the last thing on John "damage control" Paulson's mind is to get involved in more PR campaigns involving sovereign CDS.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 21:36 | 1404281 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the time for PR Campaigns (sugar coating turds) is near end. I think we can put June 2011 down as the month everyone wised up and faced the turd (toxic debt) full in the face. Probably why Mr Bright Eyes, Trichet, is exiting stage left as his sugary positive spin no longer washes with anyone..

Now on stage, Mr Ugly Reality

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:55 | 1402849 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Earlier this week, the MSM featured an exclusive story about the trust fund status. All kidding aside.

Statement of Robert D. Reischauer -- June 22, 2011

 

Statement of Robert D. Reischauer -- June 3, 2011

 

So where did the money go? The fiduciary responsibilty will be held to the people who signed the document and allowed the trust to be gambled away.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:55 | 1402857 malikai
malikai's picture

"fiduciary responsibility".. LOL

Responsibility is for the plebs.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:17 | 1402898 Atomizer
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Funny as shit until the plebs figure it out. How are you going to cover for the invested government controlled monies that's not there?

**Inserts laugh track**

You fucked up, not I.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:52 | 1402974 malikai
malikai's picture

In my own observation, the western plebs seem contempt with their TVs, GMO food, and of course Cialis.

The other plebs(don't count) are contempt trying to feed themselves.

This said despite many a megaphone telling the plebs what's really going on. I want to believe they will wake up, but as long as the boil is slow, they won't.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:35 | 1403079 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Point taken. We both reside in the same camp of thinking.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:19 | 1403286 malikai
malikai's picture

We do have one thing working for us: The more shit they pile into this boat, the harder she is to steer. But the longer she takes to sink, the worse the losses will be. I really fear for what my country will become when we see this through. Needless to say, protection of oneself from the eventualities is well in order.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:39 | 1403094 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

double post removal

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:59 | 1402855 zorba THE GREEK
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 Roll Greek debt over for thirty years.    Maybe they should put the debt in a time capsule for

 some future Europeans to dig up 400 or 500 years from now.  Wouldn't that be a surprise:

 " This note is due upon discovery with compound interest"  

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:22 | 1402913 snowball777
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Don't worry, they'll have Juncker's head in a jar to arrange another bailout then too.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 14:46 | 1403343 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

That's actually pretty clever. Maybe Christine will propose just such an idea!

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:55 | 1402856 StrawberryBlonde
StrawberryBlonde's picture

My friend mentioned the other day that her family had Greek takeaway for dinner...this has a new meaning to me now!

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 21:33 | 1404360 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

that's what the banksters also want, a 'Greek take-away' (asset strip a nation) 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:56 | 1402859 YesMaybe
YesMaybe's picture

I do find it funny that mercantilism is looked upon in mainstream economics as mere foolishness by those pre-Smith morans.   When, in reality, it's just exporting unemploymet, the right to do which is eagerly and increasingly fought over.  We better find some Martians soon so we can dump our products onto them.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:00 | 1402860 richard in norway
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just in time

 

i was getting withdrawal symptoms, from lack of crazy euro news

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:07 | 1402879 granolageek
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I don't understand how German exports are holding up now. I haven't shopped for a car for 9 years, but for everything I have shopped for since 2006 I have always found either something just as good for 75% of the money, or something good enough for half the price or less. I still have a Stihl chainsaw and a couple bottles of gewurtztraminer, but I think that's it.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:25 | 1402927 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

at the moment i will only buy dirt cheap(china) or top quality(German) i don't know but i guess a lot of folks are making the same choices. either a  throwaway item or a built to last and nothing in between. but i wonder if the Germans are making the same mistake that Britain made a hundred years ago, are they selling retooling to the Chinese

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 20:18 | 1403999 koperniuk666
koperniuk666's picture

Richard - You have hit the nail on the head. Theres the crap we buy and its made by machines. These machines are made by bigger machines and its these  biggermachines (and the ones that make these machines, that Germany makes and sells to, amongst others, the chinks.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:10 | 1402881 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Greece does not have the exporting capacity or ability to make unique things that the world needs. They are a consumer service nation. There GDP is limited along with economic growth. Regardless if they come up with a plan to kick things down the road by raising taxes and cutting services, they are too deep in debt. Interest on the debt alone will consume most if not all tax hikes and cuts in services. Throwing more money at the problem will not fix it. They will default. If this creates contagion in Europe and the U.S., so be it. The madness has to stop sometime. Investing has risk. If investors get wiped out, oh well. If currencies collapse, oh well. Let the cards fall where they may. 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:52 | 1402968 Solarman
Solarman's picture

Exactly, but logic is not being employed. The game is to figure out which option hurts the Germans the least.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:08 | 1402885 YesMaybe
YesMaybe's picture

Also, could someone clear up for me this simple math for 30%-50% haircut?  The only thing I can think of is for every 100 owed they get a new bond for 50 and 20-worth of stock.  But I figured I'm probably misunderstanding it, since this way the banks have to take a large immediate writedown on their books, so why would BNP propose such a scheme?

 

Thanks in advance!

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:26 | 1403063 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

With this type of restructuring the haircut is not on principle.

If you have a greek two year bond that is now trading at a twenty percent discount to the purchase price, this plan woyld roll it over into a thirty year bond with an interest rate of five percent more or less.

You get to pretend the principle is unimpaired on your bank capital requirements, as long as you " plan" to hold to maturity.

The haircut is in the future returns of a thirty year, not the principle.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 12:51 | 1403125 HpDeskjet
HpDeskjet's picture

Good explanation, but this is just part 1 of the "solution" (=extend and pretend for another 6-12 months). Part 2: Rating agencies have to say whether this is a credit event... From an investors point of view, changing a 2y bond to a 30y bond = a taking a haircut.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:34 | 1403427 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Indeed

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:35 | 1403430 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Indeed

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 15:32 | 1403437 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Indeed

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 16:48 | 1403556 Highrev
Highrev's picture

No credit event. Greece issue "solved". No need for more QE here (and probably not anywhere else in Europe either with the China backstop). And the ratings agencies will continue to make themselves look like clowns.

All eyes will now turn to the odd man out. You do know who the odd man out is, right? The patsy?

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 13:30 | 1403180 YesMaybe
YesMaybe's picture

I see.  Thanks!

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