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Leading Austrian Economist: Some Conspiracy Theories Are True
Many people are starting to appreciate the Austrian school of economics, and its recognition that unrestrained bubbles lead to economic crashes.
But many of those who respect Austrian economics dismiss all "conspiracy theories" as being crazy.
But in fact, leading Austrian school economist Professor Murray N. Rothbard wrote in 1965:
It
is also important for the State to inculcate in its subjects an
aversion to any "conspiracy theory of history"; for a search for
"conspiracies" means a search for motives and an attribution of
responsibility for historical misdeeds. If, however, any tyranny
imposed by the State, or venality, or aggressive war, was caused not by
the State rulers but by mysterious and arcane "social forces," or by
the imperfect state of the world or, if in some way, everyone was
responsible ("We Are All Murderers," proclaims one slogan), then there
is no point to the people becoming indignant or rising up against such
misdeeds. Furthermore, an attack on "conspiracy theories" means that
the subjects will become more gullible in believing the "general
welfare" reasons that are always put forth by the State for engaging in
any of its despotic actions. A "conspiracy theory" can unsettle the
system by causing the public to doubt the State's ideological
propaganda.
And in 1977, Rothbard wrote:
Anytime that a hard-nosed analysis is put forth of who
our rulers are, of how their political and economic interests
interlock, it is invariably denounced by Establishment liberals and
conservatives (and even by many libertarians) as a "conspiracy theory
of history," "paranoid," "economic determinist," and even "Marxist."
These smear labels are applied across the board, even though such
realistic analyses can be, and have been, made from any and all parts
of the economic spectrum, from the John Birch Society to the Communist
Party. The most common label is "conspiracy theorist," almost always
leveled as a hostile epithet rather than adopted by the "conspiracy
theorist" himself.
It is no wonder that usually these realistic
analyses are spelled out by various "extremists" who are outside the
Establishment consensus. For it is vital to the continued rule of the
State apparatus that it have legitimacy and even sanctity in the eyes
of the public, and it is vital to that sanctity that our politicians
and bureaucrats be deemed to be disembodied spirits solely devoted to
the "public good." Once let the cat out of the bag that these spirits
are all too often grounded in the solid earth of advancing a set of
economic interests through use of the State, and the basic mystique of
government begins to collapse.
Let us take an easy example.
Suppose we find that Congress has passed a law raising the steel tariff
or imposing import quotas on steel? Surely only a moron will fail to
realize that the tariff or quota was passed at the behest of lobbyists
from the domestic steel industry, anxious to keep out efficient foreign
competitors. No one would level a charge of "conspiracy theorist"
against such a conclusion. But what the conspiracy theorist is doing is
simply to extend his analysis to more complex measures of government:
say, to public works projects, the establishment of the ICC, the
creation of the Federal Reserve System, or the entry of the United
States into a war. In each of these cases, the conspiracy theorist asks
himself the question cui bono? Who benefits from this measure? If he finds that Measure A benefits X and Y, his next step is to investigate the hypothesis: did
X and Y in fact lobby or exert pressure for the passage of Measure A?
In short, did X and Y realize that they would benefit and act
accordingly?
Far from being a paranoid or a determinist, the conspiracy analyst is a praxeologist;
that is, he believes that people act purposively, that they make
conscious choices to employ means in order to arrive at goals. Hence,
if a steel tariff is passed, he assumes that the steel industry lobbied
for it; if a public works project is created, he hypothesizes that it
was promoted by an alliance of construction firms and unions who
enjoyed public works contracts, and bureaucrats who expanded their jobs
and incomes. It is the opponents of "conspiracy" analysis who profess
to believe that all events — at least in government —are random and
unplanned, and that therefore people do not engage in purposive choice
and planning.
There are, of course, good conspiracy analysts and
bad conspiracy analysts, just as there are good and bad historians or
practitioners of any discipline. The bad conspiracy analyst tends to
make two kinds of mistakes, which indeed leave him open to the
Establishment charge of "paranoia." First, he stops with the cui bono; if measure A benefits X and Y, he simply concludes that therefore
X and Y were responsible. He fails to realize that this is just a
hypothesis, and must be verified by finding out whether or not X and Y
really did so. (Perhaps the wackiest example of this was the British
journalist Douglas Reed who, seeing that the result of Hitler's
policies was the destruction of Germany, concluded, without further
evidence, that therefore Hitler was a conscious agent of
external forces who deliberately set out to ruin Germany.) Secondly,
the bad conspiracy analyst seems to have a compulsion to wrap up all
the conspiracies, all the bad guy power blocs, into one giant
conspiracy. Instead of seeing that there are several power blocs trying
to gain control of government, sometimes in conflict and sometimes in
alliance, he has to assume — again without evidence — that a small
group of men controls them all, and only seems to send them into conflict...
Rothbard's points are well-taken: there are in fact
conspiracies involving powerful people. But people that go off
half-cocked with baseless allegations unsupported by the evidence do a
disservice to everyone, and do nothing but muddy the waters.
We must treat conspiracy theories like judges are trained to do: as claims to be proven or disproven based on the evidence.
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Couldn't it be possible that the corporate elite took over our government and decided to deregulate, defund the regulators that are left, hire patronage employees or unqualified employees, shift money towards their business allies, all in a successful attempt to undermine government power both to give power to themselves and their allies and to cause public disdain for the government and not the capitalist class? Why must it be the government who is the one with the power especially when they have no power compared to the capitalist class who pays their real salaries and in many cases are the ones who are working in our regulatory administrations. What gets me about the Austrians and ultra libertarians is their complete faith in business over democracy.
Clearly TPTB are still running the show. As many of us can see, the spin will work until it doesn't. At some point everything reverts to mean and fiat currencies and those asset values supported by Keynesian policies go splat. IT HASN'T YET. In a time frame laced with black swan events, a heightened awareness of the possibility of this occurring is on all our minds.
However, to effect any change before the tipping point occurs involves persuading the most minor yet numerous beneficiaries of Keynesian largess (i.e. extended unemployment, welfare, food stamps, etc) to vote against the officials who rail the loudest that they must be continued. Then you not only need this constituency, but they must be joined by those who have exhausted extended benefits as well as the 75-80% still employed. Why do you think the filing deadline for income tax was selected as April 15th? It is as far away from election time as possible.
We are already obtaining one of the best outcomes possible...incumbents are declining to run for re-election in record numbers to avoid (what they consider the odds of certain) defeat. Anything that can be done to keep the fact that the electorate is being screwed by their government in front of the masses needs maximum exposure. The continued (joking, I hope) complaints of ZH servers being stressed at 2am is only evidence that we are getting the message out to the populace.
There are far more individuals working for the kleptocracy who are able to engineer a black swan event than there are among those of us here. While the odds of such an event which will bring the entire system down are far greater now than any time since 1913, it's still a long shot. Let's focus on what we can do; continue to bring the uninitiated to this site, and get some of the exceptional source material found here in the hands of the deluded.
Most of us here are prepared for that black swan event to occur. We have a unique opportunity to change the course of mankind here either way. Let's formulate a contingency plan in case it doesn't. Anything we can do to contribute to the largest turnover in congress in history in the absence of that six-sigma event will be true public service.
I wonder why all Conspiracies are American, Jewish, Capitalist. Anyway most people that go that route usually are looking for an easy explanation.
"had to invade Iraq and slaughter endless numbers of Iraqi people."
It was the Iraquis and Al Qaeda and other radical islamists that made most of slaughter...
As social animals we conspire. If you have ever lived in a family you have experienced conspiracy firsthand. Often it is not successful and creates internecine relationships that can be acted out even for generations. The idea of "conspiracy theorists" came into the vernacular, in my memory, after the assassination of JFK and the Warren Report. To this day, almost forty seven years later, we do not know exactly what happened although there are many people in high places who have great credibility in the public mind and have very clear ideas about "what happened," and Lee Harvey Oswald plays a very small part in those "what's." Ever since, with the onset of the great Viet Nam War, the politicians and the governing classes became more and more suspect in the public consciousness. For very good reason, we can observe easily. Now the idea of "conspiracy" has morphed in the public mind from "suspicion" of motives, to nutcases going off half-cocked. Whatever the fact, the truth is most people in high places, just as it is in families, have motives, and those motives are usually self-oriented and neither godlike or saintly. Therefore suspicion of conspiracy is a natural possibility in navigating through the terminal miasma of human greed and self-interest.
Have a strong US$ by maniputating the gold price downwards.
Why do you thinks Central Banks own gold?
Because of savings, difficult times?
Gold price manipation will come out as the
Biggest collussion of our time.
www.gata.org
2007 IMF Magazine cover story where they were even pushing global government as the solution to the subprime crisis:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/boughton.htm
"In None Dare Call it Conspiracy, Gary Allen observes the occurrence of "32,496 consecutive coincidences" in American history between 1930 and 1970... Given the law of averages, one could expect at least half of these events to produce a favorable outcome for the nation. Surely, if all of America's problems resulted from the simple ineptitude of poor leadership, the the errors would intermittently benefit the citizenry..."
"...projects in establishing an oligarchical world government exhibit varying degrees of coordination, coherency and internal contention." Pouzzner makes it abundantly clear that this somewhat diffuse network constitutes a conspiracy, "but largely an open one, and one of humans, hence neither monolithic nor unerring. ... Pouzzner identifies the most powerful conspiratorial entities as "the first-tier international bankers and the intelligence agencies they largely control."
Excerpt from: http://www.amazon.com/Ascendancy-Scientific-Dictatorship-Examination-Epi...
Preview the first several pages there for more. It's a pretty thought-provoking intellectual exploration of a complex, yet understandable high-stakes geopolitical game for total global domination.
The official histories of Communist states are very entertaining. Each time a new ruling elite came to power, the old history books were removed from circulation and new history books glorifying new rulers appeared.
A typical example is the WWII history written by Soviet Field-Marshal Zukov. It was reissued 14 times including 12 times after Zukov's death. Each new edition states that the previous editions were not historically accurate and/or truthful since were written under censorship of the previous regime.
GWB and the Congress were so concerned about freedom and welfare of Iraqi people that they had to invade Iraq and slaughter endless numbers of Iraqi people. Well, some people do believe in this garbage. There was no conspiracy. It was a pure and honest Judea-Christian love for Iraqi Muslim people.
All government is a conspiracy.
That doesn't mean it requires a sophisticated or far-fetched explanation.
That is what Austrian school economics taught me.
A nice read, and some very nice commentary.
It takes me back a ways -- about three decades -- to the point in school where it started to dawn on me that history textbooks made no sense at all. There was no "French and Indian War" -- there were skirmishes in North America that formed part of a contest between two globe-spanning empires, but there was no way to take the American parts out of context and make them into anything. The Civil War wasn't fought to "free the slaves" -- debt bondage continued well after the Emancipation Proclamation. The Korean War of the 50's was the second time that American troops went to that peninsula in the 20th century...
Of course, these "mini-revelations" lead to the inevitable conclusion that public school history classes were nothing more than indoctrination -- which, in turn, led to questions about other courses of study.
Shaw famously quipped that "Every profession is a conspiracy against the layman." Is it similarly true that the works of every historian, philosopher, or economist is a conspiracy against both laymen and followers of other schools?
Bruce Sterling on atemporality replacing history:
http://grinding.be/2010/02/13/bruce-sterling-defines-atemporality-at-tra...
I still say Goldmine Sachs is guilty of treason.
friday night tinfoil for entertainment's sake
http://www.maxim.com/humor/stupid-fun/86265/mysterious-death-bushs-cyber...
This "environment" is significantly more controlled HP.
I find it strange that the Austrians predict and explain the circumstances of the past hundred years economically and Paul Krugman is oblivious. I find it strange that the conspiracy literature of the past 70 years predicts and explains global political events and Chris Matthews is oblivious. I find it strange that the only investigative journalism of the past 10 years is The National Enquirer breaking the John Edwards wiener story. I wonder!?!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y12hkHdN3Ds
here's one, conspiracy theories, like dreams, sometime come true...
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10451518-38.html
I have come to the conclusion that conspiracy theorists are witnessing the phenomenon of "emergent behavior" of complex systems. The dynamics of intelligent actors behaving in a complex system will produce effects that appear to have a singular intelligence behind them. It would be easy to misinterpret this as a conspiracy.
That being said, there can be no doubt that there are many "vested interests" a play in our markets today who have significant resources at their disposal and who have the power to manipulate circumstances to benefit themselves. These activities by their nature are not easily known to the general public, so one could indeed label these as "conspiracies". But, it is also important to note that since the system is dynamic. It cannot be controlled, only manipulated. (And there are a few who manipulated it quite well).
I would also venture forth to say that there is one antidote to all conspiracies (whether real or imaged) - public awareness. If the people of the United State really knew and understood what was going on, the system would change over night. (Just look at the anger generated by the banker's bonuses. This is nothing compared to the debts assumed by taxpayers for the entire financial bailout.) This is why the mainstream media is owned by the "vested interests", and why blogs such as this are so relevant.
brilliantly well stated
It's just as likely that people act carelessly to achieve their goals, that George Bush did not order the demolition of the twin towers under a false flag operation, but that he willingly ignored the evidence that suggested such an attack was imminent, and allowed many other pieces of the puzzle to fall into place. Most conspiracy theory is the hobgoblin of little minds. agreed...
First the sentence and THEN the evidence. "The Red Queen, in Alice and Wonderland."
We now know that Bush and Blair talked about invading Iraq a year before they actually did. Bush said he would put the information together which supported such an invasion. The point being the elite can post date their data to prove anything, Tienemen Square was a tea party, but the individual must prove their case in a court where only a preponderance of the evidence is enough to cause judgement. Without the smoking gun there can be conviction in a court of law. NONSENSE, people are convicted on circumstanial evidence every day, and eye witness testimony is the LEAST realiable.
Its too bad we have all been brainwashed to accept a standard of proof which the leadership of this country would never hold themselves responsible to, including SCOTUS, whose felonious deviations from common sense make them among the most impeachable members of any of the three branches of government, three very low hanging branches with very rotten fruit which any school boy could dispatch with one whack, but which still confounds the efforts of the most educated nation in the world, in their efforts to demand a reasonable level of ethics to their behavior and actions.
Does anyone believe that the recent SCOTUS decision to prepare the way for corporate campaign sponsorship was motivated by lobbyists?
Of course not, SCOTUS is like a random noise generator, which occasionally spits out something we wish we never heard.
Then it becomes the obligation of the Congress, through checks and balances to correct the problem.
but as Nash wrote " It is common knowledge to every schoolboy and even every Bachelor of Arts,
That all sin is divided into two parts."
Once part Democratic, One Republican.
The real conspiracy is what is it that allows one party to lie, and the other to swear to it?
and stock markets fall under their own weight.
So it is that this constantly self reflating stock market is being driven by government intervention. That much is obvious, when neglect (the forces of the free market), is considered an unreasonable solution to the problem.
Its not what the Fed has done, its what they haven't done. They haven't controlled the money supply enough, controlled credit enough, and regulated banks enough. and the downside is almost always some authoritarian reactionary government largesse, a form of control which the Chinese Politiburo has used to great success.
Its much harder to be a good follower. That requires holding your leaders accountable, which America since Nixon has failed to do with any consistency.
"people are convicted on circumstanial evidence every day"
like Aafia Siddiqui for instance
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts02102010.html
Nice post, George. You know what really bothers me now is how Obama always criticizes any opposition as proponents of "policies of the failed past." Or, "there's no serious argument against ..." There's a conspiracy at the very top where his clique won't even listen to the opposition. It's all George Soros and the Center For American Progress. Keep plugging the Austrians.
you better watch what you say....
this really got no play...did not see video til today...wow
Ron Paul to Obama: Don’t Assassinate American Citizens
http://www.ronpaul.com/2010-02-04/ron-paul-to-obama-dont-assassinate-ame...
When you say 'we must act like judges', perhaps people will more likely 'find' a few 'good' judges and listen to them.
Whether the theorist is good or bad is arbitrary anyway, so I take pleasure in learning ALL of the hypothesis' (or whatever the plural word is for hypothesis) and study ALL of the different coincidences myself. I take in as much as I possibly can as often as I can about everything. Sometimes, even for something as recent as the month of September nine years ago, we will NEVER find out some of the fine print of the pages of history. It becomes impossible to judge whether the continuing by the theorist to make known the unknowable conclusion of the previous 'coincidence', and have now also to take in how to judge the issue the theorist mentions now.
As of this moment, right now, NO ONE alive can PROVE that a GOD exists ........... how do we teach someone to judge this conundrum objectively?
As of this moment, right now, NO ONE alive can PROVE that a GOD exists
No one alive can prove that beauty exists either. What's your point?
My point is we would get shot if we went around explaining to regular people (not theorists) about the fact that God is unprovable.
How does one convince those that would kill to be a better judge?
There isn't ONE standard rule that could apply to interpreting ALL theories and even if there were - some of theories we'll NEVER know the truth to. In this case; no theory is wrong. Everything is possible and can also possibly be intertwined with one or many other theories.
SEEK THE TRUTH.
What was Nastradamus's state of mind when he was pursuing to learn the information that led to his prediction of hitler. Why did Newton work so hard to learn about the year 2060? What motivated them? Did they 'judge' for themselves what they heard, or was there some purpose to their search?
Break any "law" (speeding, etc.) and you are guilty (by default) as an accomplice/co-conspirator.
"We must treat conspiracy theories like judges are trained to do: as claims to be proven or disproven based on the evidence."
Excellent point.
Let everyone of our positions and claims live or die by the facts based on logically valid argument.
A concept of reality completely foreign to the idiot news media, CNBC, the worthless bought off US political class and sadly... the majority of the Amerikan public.
Marc Faber gave an interview the other day where they called him a conspiracy theorist. He told the story about some guy that was always in the ski lodge he visited as a child talking about voice recognition software. Everyone called him nuts and said it was impossible. That being said, the Fed and our Wall St. crooks openly commit crimes out in public and get away with it easily. This isn't a conspiracy. It's theft right before your eyes.
Its a conspiracy of laziness and delusion.
No one WANTS to seriously contemplate the scope of the problem or deal with the inevitable consequences. Most people seem to think we're sailing over the falls at full clip - I pray we are not.
Oh, there is no doubt we are sailing over the falls at full clip. What some of us wonder is "Is it possible we can do it and survive one more time?"
"We must treat conspiracy theories like judges are trained to do: as claims to be proven or disproven based on the evidence."
Which ones do you doubt? We can't debate what remains unstated.
And the fucking criminal enterprise - the GSE's - needs how much more proof? Just because they decriminalize it doesn't mean it not fraud.
Note to Mish.
Forget worrying about "conspiracy" and occam's razor.
Try thinking "collusion".
Stupid people don't go to jail....colluders do.
Mish, do you want the perps in jail or not?
40muleteam borax........and peeved, dammit!
There seems to be a lot of interest and activity by our leadership to stop all of these groups that proclaim various conspiracies behind high-profile events. The newly appointed minister of propaganda is hard at work to stamp out this insanity!
http://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-information-czar-outlined-plan-for-gov...
like flies to sh..t we go... clearly a honeypot for conspiracy theorists... :^)
Ya we kick those guys in the ass constantly.
Beware the man who smiles during trouble. He's already picked someone to take the blame.
That's all they will see. Millions and billions of people smiling.
Murry on the Fed, 1 hr long but good:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ta7q1amDAN4
You can look at any even through different eyes. Here's a great current example of two sides to every story.
http://rense.com/general89/reid.htm
Ben Bernanke on the Grassy Knoll with a candlestick.
Sitting on the candlestick preferably.
Conspiracy=a secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act.
http://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=conspiracy
Sounds like anyone we know?
Secret agreements to do unlawful things? Like FED-USTres-AIG?
Hmmm.....cognitive dissonance setting in....must watch ESPN and grab 6-pack now....
Where is Pierre?
Robert Anton Wilson takes that basic definition of conspiracy a little farther.
Rather than restricting it to unlawful acts, his definition has it that when at two (or more) people plan to effect the life of a third person (or people) without the knowledge of that person, then it is a conspiracy.
GS + AIG vs US Taxpayers
It's a simple as that. Viewing history as mostly a serious of "accidents", with a few rotten apples, is classic public education. How dare we imagine our dear leaders have something to gain from such positions of high power. After presenting facts I still hear, "You just have to take the pessimisstic view, don't you? Not everyone wants to steal from you, ya know."
"How dare we imagine our dear leaders have something to gain from such positions of high power."
WaterWings, It is called "The Myth Narrative"
It is based on the use of indoctrination, Sacred and Satanic Symbolism and Sloganeering to brain wash the public on a continual basis with propaganda.
And... it is VERT effective.
Sacred Symbolism = Angels, God, US Flag, Freedom, Democracy, Capitalism (Especially Oligarchy Fixed Market Capitalism), Endless Wars killing for Peace, imprisoning and torturing for Freedom.
Satanic Symbolism = Turbans, Muslims, Iranian Flag, Social Democracy, Fe'rners (Foreigners, Tenn. accent...), Market Regulation, No Profit Health Care, No Wall Street paws on retirement funds, Anyone Opposed to US Corporate Imperialism that the US taxpayer pays the military cost for...
Sloganeering = "Support the Troops" "Capitalism means Freedom and Democracy!" "Wall Street Deserves 1% of GDP in Bonuses even though the US tax payer saved their companies and jobs..."
Now repeat after me:
"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the Corporate Owned States of Amerika. And to the Oligopoly for which it stands, globalization, under God (ask Lloyd) with liberty and justice for the top 1% of Fixed Marketeers. Amen."
Very interesting. You have probably already seen this:
www.vigilantcitizen.com
Rothbard is always a good read. Wish I had more time to go through his voluminous work. The official history is usually the one that is presented by the court/state historians for public consumption and indeed may have very little to do with the real history. For a modern view many of us westerns can agree on look at Japan's response to works done on the Rape of Nanking. If one speaks out against the official history, whether right or wrong, then he becomes an enemy of the state and the established social order.
I don't know if you know this, so pardon if you do... but you can get most (all?) of his books for free in .pdf at mises.org.