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Libor Dispersion Surges, As SocGen, WestLB, Mizuho and Rabobank Flash Red Liquidity Warning Lights

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It should come as no surprise that the short-term funding markets for European banks are getting increasingly problematic. Unfortunately for the ECB, which can intervene with a 6-12 hour time horizon to prop up the euro, there is nothing it can do to limit the bleed in Libor. Confirming this, Libor simply refuses to slow down its constant creep higher, causing increasing pain to all those who have sold the Ted spread and Libor-OIS, both of which are back to September 2009 levels.

Yet while a surging Libor in itself is a troubling phenomenon, what is even scarier is looking at the offers provided by constituent banks to the Britsh Bankers Association, which compiles the data and provides an ex-outlier quartile adjusted Libor rate. The dispersion between the top and bottom bank in today's EUR LIBOR panel was a whopping 33% today, begging the question of just how healthy the upside panel outliers are.

The first chart shows the absolute level in 3 month Libor as provided by each member bank.

And here is the same chart showing the dispersion around the average Libor of 0.6278%.

It is far too obvious that such a dramatic dispersion is certainly not healthy, and while we are very skeptical of UBS' indicated offer of 0.48% in 3M Libor (absent the company receiving a direct line of credit from a recently very intervention happy SNB), anyone who has dealings with Soc Gen, West LB, Mizuho and Rabobank may certainly want to hedge their counterparty risk. The banks indicated 3M EUR Libor offers are far above not just the average but are substantial outliers to historical respective offered rates. We will keep an eye out on these 4 firms as we anticipate material moves wider in the offered rates as liquidity conditions worsen.

 


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Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:07 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

I hope the LIBOR-OIS spread will keep going to Lehman levels.

In which case, we need a European Lehman to confirm the freeze of credit markets, again.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Interesting. SocGen came up on my company's "Euro-bank-at-risk" scan last week as well, among several others.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 19:36 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Good, thats what we need. One to take the fall for all of them, a la Lehman.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:35 | Link to Comment ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Okay regular folks and free loaders, I encourage everyone to hit the donate button and pony up a donation for more bandwidth and servers and whatever tech crap ZH needs to buy so the site doesn't go down. We all know the markets are only going to get more volitle and bizarre from hear on out. DONATE NOW!

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:46 | Link to Comment luster
luster's picture

I would if they had a payment method other than suck ass PayPal.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

If they would post there address I would gladly send a personal check, or some of these nice FRN's,  get em now before they lose  there shine.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 15:13 | Link to Comment luster
luster's picture

TD, are you reading this?

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Flounder
Flounder's picture

Uh, I believe ZH needs a google sized server farm next to a glacier lake with hydroelectric power.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:39 | Link to Comment BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

Nice.  The benevolent stewards of our economy are prudently using taxpayer money to buy Euros.  Congratulations comrades, our future tax monies have juiced the Euro by 2 cents this morning.  please call his honorable Bernanke and Giethner to thank them for acting as our fiduciaries in helping others in need.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 06:07 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Could be worse ... you could be paying taxes on both sides of the pond.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:37 | Link to Comment youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

To be honest ZeroPower....I dont get it. Why do you want that? Talking your petty bet or schadenfreude?

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 15:16 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Definitely not the latter (and yes i googled that). Maybe a bit of 'i told you so' to people who think everything is fundamentally sound; a bit of alpha too.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Mongo
Mongo's picture

One might say, the CB-chiefs are sweating bullets?... or are they sweating fiat currencies?

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:42 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Meanwhile, the afternoon zero-volume melt-up continues unabated - the S&P has already evaporated the entire post-open decline and is now flirting with a loss of "only" 2% when any reasonable reading of the news should result in yet another massive hit to the index.

The new-and-improved FedCo "PlungeControl 10,000" is holding up pretty well, so far.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:47 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

It's like a broken record. Tyler & ZH says watch OIS/Libor. Brits are telling everyone on Bloomberg in the early morning, watch OIS/Libor. I've been screaming watch EURIBOR/LIBOR/etc.

Now CNBC is finally letting Santelli talk about it and the crap is hitting the fan. It's indicating a huge problem just as the 1-3-6 Treasuries have been warning for a year that this was not a long term bull market starting again in equities. This may not be the crash coming but the credit markets, as Tyler has been saying, are warning loud and clear that the fan is about to get splattered if the CB's don't get their acts together.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 15:14 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Yup, just how its been about 3 days in a row now hes been talking about the PM ETFs which dont have enough backing in physical..

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

For several days I have been warning of EURUSD buying support as detected by my indicators, and this has been confirmed by the recent break out.

The proprietary indicators I use can identify trend changes before they occur.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:48 | Link to Comment The Rogue Trader
The Rogue Trader's picture

Just DONATED...suggest all chip in

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:49 | Link to Comment mister_x
mister_x's picture

UBS as the lowest? That's the funniest thing I've heard today. Shows you skepticism is warranted on Libor.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 14:52 | Link to Comment partimer1
partimer1's picture

They can easily announce some kind of rumor and render all those puts they sold worthless by tomorrow morning.  This is how the scam works.

 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 15:09 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

There are no limits to SNB intervention...

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 19:43 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

^^^Donor^^^

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

For several days I warned of EURUSD buying support as detected by my indicators - and this has been confirmed by the recent Euro break out.

The proprietary indicators I use can identify trend changes before they occur.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 04:23 | Link to Comment mm17101978
mm17101978's picture

Dear Reggie, I am not surprised at all that Societe Generale came up in your own scan of major European banks that are currently in big trouble but I would also bet that (since I work with them, although on the real-estate side) BNP Paribas and UniCredit "made it" to your "big trouble" list. Not to mention Intesa Sanpaolo, reportedly stuffed with Greek (state) junk. Am I decently close to identifying a few of the other majors that could go through big shocks pretty soon on this side of the ocean? Best wishes to all ZH users and creators from Rome.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 06:54 | Link to Comment Droops
Droops's picture

Any particular reason you drew the line there, or was that when you realised that drawing attention to 2 of the only AAA cast iron safe banks in the world made you look like an idiot?

Maybe the guys putting high numbers in are just telling the truth and the others are lying?  Or maybe the whole thing is a joke, since there's no unsecured lending going on anyway...??

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