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The Lies Continue: UMichigan Consumer Confidence Beats Days After Conference Board Misses

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/01/2010 09:59 -0400

Confused yet: a few days ago the Conference Board came out with a confidence number which was a massive miss, and which drove market higher on expectations of QE2. Today, to prove that nothing coming out of the government is even remotely credible anymore, the UMichigan Confidence index came at 68.2, beating expectations of 67.0, and compared to a previous read of 66.6. Once again, our condolences to all those who trade the candles in this joke passing for a market.

More details:

Expectations: 60.9 vs. Exp. 60.0 (Prev. 59.1)
Conditions: 79.6 vs. Exp. 78.9 (Prev. 78.4)
5-year Inflation: 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.8%
1-year Inflation: 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.2%

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Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:06 | 618036 Id fight Gandhi

So bte is for no qe so that's bad.

But bad number is for qe so that's good?

Or just say it's all good and drink kool aid

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:35 | 618141 Missing_Link

It's all very simple.

If the market is down, it's for whichever of the following reasons is most convenient / believable:

Because the economic numbers are good, and the expectation is that interest rates will rise and/or quantitative easing is less likely
Because the economic numbers are good, but not as good as someone "expected"
Because the economic numbers are bad

On the other hand, if the market is up, it's just the opposite:

Because the economic numbers are bad, and the expectation is that interest rates will stay at zero and/or quantitative easing is more likely
Because the economic numbers are bad, but better than someone "expected"
Because the economic numbers are good

See how it works? Using this simple methodology, any market conditions can be correlated with any economic conditions using the appropriate excuse, to continue to fool the masses into thinking there's some connection.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:38 | 618145 Oh regional Indian

It's all good lies Gandhi-fighter, that is the only thing good about it.

Yet, articles are written and pundits get their knickers (or knockers, depending) in a twist...

I like their hair's breadth misses though. Kind of like how company numbers always come in within cents of expectations. That gag inducing drama should tell all we need to understand about this statistical bull@#$%.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

PS: I would too, but curious as to why you'd fight Gandhi?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 19:55 | 619839 StychoKiller

Close enough only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades (and lying Govt statistics). Guess you haven't watched "Fight Club."

Sun, 10/03/2010 - 01:50 | 621809 Oh regional Indian

Actually I have Kali-man, but did not really like it. It glorified needless violence. To me, the movie was a big social programming schtick. Kind of like Jackass or whatever that MTV show that made people do crazy things.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:13 | 618070 Whatta

"Once again, our condolences to all those who trade the candles in this joke passing for a market."

Why? It is extremely easy to make money in the market for the last year and a half. Just buy something. It goes up. You make money. It's easy. Wheeeeee. I am doing it right now.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:15 | 618072 TradingJoe

and the ramp madness goes on! da boyz know it, as long as benjie hits the press they can go "long" and stay there! the point of practicality is gone, this thing can go ever higher or die on a dime!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:19 | 618092 unwashedmass

yeah, but one of the more interesting aspects of this is that they have pushed their favorites so high that now they can't follow anymore, even the computers know the stock isn't even close to worth it....

which has created another "situation"....

for the past couple of years, it has been okay, even "encouraged" to naked short the gold and silver stocks.....and even thru most of this ramp, they have been sitting hard on the HUI.....now....the ONLY stocks still showing value -- and in some cases, insane value, are the gold and silver stocks...

ah Ben, ya bail and it just keeps coming in....

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:18 | 618083 cowdiddly

1492. As children we were taught to memorize this year with pride and joy as the year people began living full and imaginative lives on the continent of North America. Actually, people had been living full and imaginative lives on the continent of North America for hundreds of years before that. 1492 was simply the year sea pirates began to rob, cheat, and kill them.

Kurt Vonnegut, Breakfast of Champions

The chief weapon of sea pirates, however, was their capacity to astonish. Nobody else could believe, until it was too late, how heartless and greedy they were.

Kurt Vonnegut, Breakfast of Champions

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:19 | 618089 gwar5

To da Mooon Alice!! To da MOOOoon!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:28 | 618120 Threeggg

Get the Circuit Breakers ready for action !

Dow fell like a "stone"

Rut row !

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:30 | 618127 firstdivision

UMichigan index is still worthless if it is up or down. I just feel that it is not a good guage and is not a good cross section to be used for investment decisions.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:58 | 618229 Cognitive Dissonance