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Life Goes On
Read the latest Stock World Weekly: Life Goes On
Excerpts:
While Japan’s crisis overshadowed other news, tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate. Rebel forces in Libya were pushed back to their stronghold city of Benghazi, losing town after town on the way. Gadaffi’s powerful counterattack consisted of armored formations, troops equipped with heavy weaponry and backed by air support. On Thursday, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution imposing a no-fly zone over Libya and authorizing “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. This was followed by Saturday’s assault upon Libya by a coalition consisting of French, U.S. and British forces acting in response to continued attacks on civilians by the Gaddafi regime.
Tensions in the Middle East caused oil prices to climb, with West Texas Intermediate Crude gaining 1.7% and ending the week at $103.24. We have been watching the $105 level as a target for initiating a short position in oil.
[...]
Phil also discussed his premise for being cautiously bullish going into next week. Short- term, the pullback we were looking for occurred, giving us more confidence that our Breakout 2 levels would hold. Phil explains “Keep in mind that inflation is pretty much our entire bullish premise as the Global Economy is not really in such good shape, but prices do keep rising and that makes Corporate Revenues rise and that makes earnings rise as well – IF businesses manage to control their input costs. Since Real Estate is still in the dumps, that key cost component is well under control for those businesses still solvent enough to pay their rents. Labor costs, if anything, continue to plunge, so as long as we avoid businesses that are susceptible to commodity input costs – we should do fine.” Is there a limit to how long inflation will inflate the stock market? Yes. “Once the people who benefited from stock and commodity inflation begin to cash out and buy things – they then begin to send a wave of price inflation, also from the top down, that can hit the lower classes like a tsunami that cannot be stopped.”
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US Drought Monitor Map.........more food inflation on the way?
http://nakedempire2.blogspot.com/
Okay, so what is someone with a fair amount of cash reserves and a steady influx of cash incoming to do? I am long silver, copper, oil and a basket of rare earths and miners right now but would appreciate any insight into hiding some of the cash in interest bearing (tax avoiding) accounts or solid equities after the next correction.
I know a local micro brewery looking for investors, their book are very good and they have the potential to grow at 75-100% for the foreseeable future. They started in 2005 and have been growing at 45% or greater YoY, Thoughts?
The people who benefit from the stock and commodity inflation are generally multinational corporations and the wealthy. They won't cash in and unleash the wave of buying that is mentioned.
Inflation; Best Explanation Yet On Who's At Fault And Why
From Wrh.com : BY Dylan Ratigan
*************************************
Federal Reserve Banksters and Congress Exposed On The Dylan Ratigan Show By: Alex224Federal Reserve Fraud exposed on The Dylan Ratigan Show. These are the facts that the alternative media has SCREAMED for years!
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"Phil" has quite a simplistic view of the world.
Inflation doesn't make "everything go up"... in fact, it is quite bearish, and will bring many companies down, as their margins are ravaged, their borrowing costs go up, and their customers are bankrupted.
I guess he's just grabbing at straws trying to understand why the market keeps bouncing back despite everything else. I think the big boys have decided equity markets are their Alamo. They've done nothing for job creation, housing, very little GDP growth, oil is screaming past $100 and so they need something to make it seem they haven't totally failed. Now people are misreading currency debasement as inflation and imagining there is some mythical land we all export to, but in reality we're just stuck in a Keynesian nightmare wwhere none but the rich and connected have any chance of winning.
Bernanke = Mr. 880
Google It!
With only 1 leg to stand on ... inflation ... the author makes some absurd assertions (shorting oil @ $105).
Fitting psuedonym though.
Got to agree with Spitzer. Saying,
"We have been watching the $105 level as a target for initiating a short position in oil."
and then:
"they then begin to send a wave of price inflation"
Makes no sense to me.
women.......
whats wrong with mixing bunga bunga and intelligent women? Only dumb blonds get to bunga bunga...Oh, I get it.
This aticle is wrong
Bullish a la inflation so short oil ????
Dollar deflatinary nominal gains are not bull markets. Running at pace with inflation is still no gain.
HAARP is their ultimate weapon. Up to speed only in the past 5 years they created the Indonesian tsunami, earthquakes in Haiti, China and now Japan. This is how they are keeping the US dollar afloat as without this hammer, Asia would have abandoned the dollar and been trading their own currencies to establish a new world reserve currency, probably the yuan as China has the world's largest trade surplus...
I never learn't to play the harp...let alone the Haarp...You have to be uber-Mozart class for that. Merely assuming.
Ilene-
I didn't like you much at first. I've moved to neutral though (with a heart that loves ya!).
You have established yourself in one of the most hardcore forums.
I like you now for whatever little it isn't worth.
Keep it up. Honesty will appreciate faster than Gold
Sorry I'm not getting the 'start shorting oil at $105' thing. Despite great attempts in the media to not discuss the loss of oil from Libya, and OPEC's shortcomings in trying to fill that gap, OPEC exports are now running at least 600,000 bpd less, if not more, than the average export rate in February. I'm don't see how that would justify playing oil from the short side, even if you like playing with fire.
Take a look at the Saudi's plans announced Friday to wildly expand state spending, and ask yourself, well if I were the King of Saud, would I do to get more money for my kingdom?
'... when it comes to choosing your weapons against a mightier foe, select first the battlefield on which he cannot use his overwhelming forces ...'
Just wait til G-Daffy figures that one out.
I give Nato-Europe 2 weeks before they start to reap the whirlwind in Paris and London streets; they better pray they have neutralised the psycho before then.
“Once the people who benefited from stock and commodity inflation begin to cash out and buy things – they then begin to send a wave of price inflation, also from the top down, that can hit the lower classes like a tsunami that cannot be stopped.”
Dumb. Rich people don't compete for the same goods as poor people. Are you saying we are all of sudden going to see Mercedes parked in front on Walmart?
Rich people will want to monetize some of their gains into bonds which should take some pressure off interest rates though.
http://www.peopleofwalmart.com/?p=38132
No, not dumb. Don't be so class-centered. (Marx is dead and was dead wrong.)
Money is fungible, and the people who make and sell the yacht buy groceries and clothes the same as everyone else.
And once the ocean of dollars overseas is used to buy real things, before those dollars become worthless... all hell breaks loose in the USA.
If I were sitting on a pile of Fed tokens overseas, I'd be exchanging them for real things already.
I will not be cashing out my stock and commodity gains, if any, to buy things. I will save the proceeds by "investing" in whatever seems to be the best "investment" at the time. Given the incredible variability in market "returns" I am far more cautious now than I was in 1999.
DR, I agree with the first paragraph, but I'm not sure about the second.
I think what is driving the bond yield down at this time are the banks that get funds at the discount window at .25% and then park it in bonds at 1.5 to 4 %. There is no risk to them, as they are either too big to fail, or they can just mark to whatever model they choose.
Also I think as credibility in fiat and sovereign paper is eroding, commodities and stocks will actually become the safe havens that T bonds have been for the last 100 years. This will more and more become the case as inflation becomes more evident.
Wait, won't that drive interest rates up, should people start piling back into bonds?
Oh come on. Seriously come-the-fuck-on. This is a finance blog - anyone taking the time to create an account and post (someone reciting the laws of thermodynamics no less) should know the very basics.
This article is also total tripe.
Hey asshole, I am doing just fine. Why wouldn't someone who has done very well in the real world and now has a lot of money to play with want to learn more about finance? I bought gold and silver in 2004 and sold half of my holdings in Nov. 2010 to buy 40 more acres of arable land for my operations. Your precious "laws of finance" are bullshit, common sense has served me well so far. However, I do want to learn how the common financial fucknut thinks so that I can continue to capitalize on their idiotic moves so a big thank you to the productive members of ZH for taking time to answer any questions I have.
I remain long oil, silver, copper, and a basket of rare earths. Is this still a good position or should I be creeping back to solid equities? My gut tells me that more QE will come but some equities are still overpriced, waiting for one more correction ahead of the next QE (in whatever form it should come). I think there may also be some more shuffling in the near future (like the reverse split at citi). Thoughts?
With crazy Ben, bonds are toxic as long as QE-3/4/5 is on schedule. As this is for stocks, for dissolving shaddock bank debt n for speculation into EM. All in one deal for PD portfolios. Let them and their HF buddies make war with leveraged derivatives deals on Euro and Yen futures. Hum, get rich n speculate. We can't lose we ARE reserve currency n we have mega nukes for ultimate CDS against USA Inc. risk.
If this fails and deflation lurks we jump into bonds...
Buy bonds = prices go up, yields go down.
LawsofFinance
If the price of the bond goes up as you say, then why don't you earn more when you sell the "asset" (bond)? Can you not sell bonds like any other asset (I am guessing no)?
How can this really be called "Life"?
USA Building Islam to create War...
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/02/usa-building-islam-to-create-war.html
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken
Wow! INFLATION AS A BULLISH PREMISE! I guess you can spin anything to BTFD. When input costs increase across the board, how is this good for business?
Input costs increasing is not good for business - there's a balance of costs and expenditures (e.g. spending less on labor), and the effects of the all the newly created money flooding the financial system. So where does that money go? I would argue that plenty has made it into the stock market. Will that last indefinitely? No. But that's where I think Phil thinks we are now. Phil's explanation goes further into the business and economic cycle, and he discussed that in his weekend article (I'll post that later). So, perhaps right now the money of the investment class is going into stocks, but when this money leaves stocks, and for instance goes back into real estate, this will cause problems for the lower 90% of people who didn't have a good % of their net worth in the stock market (so didn't benefit by the run up), and don't have funds laying around to buy houses. The progression he believes is occurring is NOT beneficial to most people.
Phil: "Again, I say this without anger – I am trying very hard to just point out some of the factors that cause us to think that perhaps it is already too late to be an inflation denier in this economy. We’re looking at 8% annual inflation and that is BEFORE all the stimulative policies that have dumped $5Tn of new money onto the US economy and $10Tn onto the Global Economy. The initial swelling of trickle down money goes to the banks to the investing class and then (I do hope this is obvious) into investments like TBills, stocks and commodities and that’s how we buy a market rally but stage 2 is much, much more dangerous as the market rally tops out and the top 10% begin to cash out their ill-gotten gains."
This shit happen so long ago.
Did you send your kid college recently?
Hammered.
Pay for health insurance?
Hammered again.
It didn't happen under the radar. It was in millions of peoples faces. They just seemed to ignore it and buy homes that they can't afford to "look good"
Now they don't look so good, now do they?
Your spew is more suited for CNBS.
Typical cost push inflation. But now it is clear that the FED/Benocide have no intention of repaying existing and future US debts to their creditors. Qe-infinity will ensure that this never happens as this scheme continues to pump private debt converting it into public debt at a rate that defies comprehension. This roller coaster is launched and will never stop. Too bad for the middle class who will be squeezed like lemon. Unless...outside sources force the world financial markets to get off the USD reserve currency. Then the inflation spiral becomes untenable and unwinding becomes inevitable. Will it take a WW3 crisis to keep the inflation escalator working ad infinitum?
"So, perhaps right now the money of the investment class is going into stocks, but when this money leaves stocks, and for instance goes back into real estate,"
Real estate? No, not any time soon. Hulk posted this Chris Whalen interview on another thread, I think that it's a pretty good argument for why real estate will continue to be screwed:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/19_C...
People are free to run around and try to catch some of the droplets that fall as everything sloshes between (condensing) buckets, but don't confuse all of this with any sort of indicator that there is "growth" occurring. I'm hard LONG contraction: I already have my stake wagered.
Well, you pass it on to your customers and then your numbers get bigger as well. Maybe.
Change "Maybe" to "MAYBE." There! Now it's a BIG "maybe!" :-)
It's pretty clear that what is happening is demand destruction via job destruction. I'm neutral on this, as I believe that no matter what the Bernank or anyone else does we'd end up realizing that we can no longer keep up the pace of global growth (read "global resource extraction/exploitation").
Nothing like pretending that those "improvements" are via constructive/productive mechanisms (superior management etc.) rather than money falling out of pockets of the people who are being shaken down...
Yup, it's all coming out the end of the bull...
Premise is one thing-reality is another...stagflation. What's good for the copper producer is not good for the wire and cable industry, transformer makers etc. In some instances they can push up the costs and sometimes they cannot. It is the finicky consumer who will rebel first. Although some consumers got shopping withdrawl and went back into further debt more and more are finding it difficult to make ends meet. I'll wager that alot of people are no longer paying for health insurance. Or driving without auto insurance etc. Gas prices are killing the consumer again. Retail sales up 6% is only matching inflation. Glad I am not a pensioner yet! Now, if only I could figure out how to start the revolution...
with health insurance premium at $960 a month.... that eventually DID have to go. Now I live on vegetarian diet and prayer!.... God help me
In Germany I pay around 1000$(a % of my salary) per month in 'heal insurance' weather I want to or not, I am 27 LOL
well I bet you Heal insurance is a whole let better then health insurance if it truely heals you! :)
$960 a month!! Damn, I thought mine were bad....
See my advice to the sheet metal worker above.
I'm 49, work for Uncle Sam as a Shhet Metal Mechanic, and I refuse to pay the outrageous price for health insurance. I live without it and take a chance. Do so far keep insurance on the vehicles, but you are right, gas prices are killing me, even though I make good money doing what I do.
Buy one or more silvers EVERY payday. No exceptions. Exercise, don't smoke and look after your health.
You'll be fine, with 99% certainty.
The Bernanke has shown the way. Use inflation to drive the masses into grinding poverty so they can barely afford their next shopping trip.
You can hurry the process along by getting rid of your cash & buying something which stores value better. Also by having your debts written off. i.e. the debt is destroyed but the credit continues to circulate.
So the strategy would be to take out as much debt as they'll give you. Spend the credit and then get your debts written off. It's probably frowned upon.
When in doubt go to love...Now that would be a true revolution...promised by Jesus Christ...reneged upon by the Latin Papal church...who changes the mantra to when in doubt make war ...by saying "god wills it" in Clermont Ferrand in 1095. It's been downhill down that road ever since in that context. Nation states, that succeeded the feudal order having espoused the crusader creed which subsequently failed, pursued same aim for geopolitical hegemony and called it "reasons of state".
It was St. Augustine of Hippo who made the argument for a "just war" in his book, The City of God. He was a resident of what is now Algeria when he wrote that in 410 AD. Hippo is what is now Annaba, close to the border with Tunisia and not far from Tripoli.
Very True. Saint Augustinian philosophy, epitomized by the phrase "To understand God and the universal light, Man must first believe (blindly)", had irradiated early Christian thinking. Until Abelard pronounced his famous 'doubting Thomas' thesis as the first of the scholastics ..."To believe, Man must first understand divine purpose". Abelard's dialectical thrust fed on "Nominalism" went further as he proclaimed for the first time amongst christian scholars that..."He who speaks in the name of God only does so in his own personal name". This stone of pure nominalist (in our days "subjective") thinking thrown in the papal garden was an arrow directed against Papal theocracy then in full fling. Whereby the Popes since monk Hildebrand, named Pope Gregory VII, had declared in Dictatus Papae that Papal theocracy was above temporal laws of Christian Emperor. This would create a three century war between "Kaiseridée" and "Papacy" as fought by the Germano/Italian nobility of Guelphs and Gibelins. But to come back to the Crusades, "God Wills it" and "Nominalism" : Abelard who criticized openly Papal encroachment of temporal power was shot down by Bernard of Clairvaux at the Concile de Sens in 1141 and declared heretic by church in veritable inquisitorial fashion without debate. He was forced to retract and died of it, broken. His disciple Arnaud de Brescia carried on the fight against Papacy by creating the republic in Rome and chasing away the Pope. It ended badly for him. The Popes would lose their Crusades as would all those intolerant kings like Saint Louis who followed suit. History would prove that Abelard, true father of French secularism, precursor of Renaissance ideas, was right. Christian dogma steeped in inquisitorial venom would destroy papal hold on the people as the subsequent Reform occurred as a protest against papal corruption. Pity GWB didn't read history as he adhered to the resurrected, flawed Crusader spirit as pronounced in the "Clash of civilizations theory" by Huntington. The original soldier-monks, who carried out Bernard of Clairvaux's ideology of "ethnic cleansing" of Holy Land (we can't lose, as God wills it!), end up in the dustbin of history, like all subsequent ethnic cleansers : SS and CIA and KGB and Ayatollah Pasdaran hit-men in Iran. We never learn do we...? Every time a man says "Gott mitt uns" ...you know it means trouble, and he is going to lose not only the ensuing war but also his soul...That's the irony of it.
An interesting sequel to this historical tale is that the Knights Templars were not only failed ethnic/ideological cleansers, like the CIA/KGB today, in their colonial adventures. They were also the Bankers of the middle ages, thanks to their toxic instruments of capitalistic expropriation : The perpetual Trust foundation which made them stinking rich and rivals to both Church and King in parallel power structures in Europe. To the point where Philip the fair of France, (largest christian kingdom of the day), and Pope Clement V took them out, killing their leaders, destroying their networks, seizing their corrupt 'Banksta' monetary treasures. Any lessons to be learnt from that historical, legalised mayhem unleashed on the elites... in these current troubled times...?