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As Liquidations Take A Breather, Gold Resumes Upward Move Again
The events of the past several days by global central banks have had the primary goal of curbing wholesale asset liquidations. This is confirmed by the Bundesbank's statement earlier today that there is a risk of a debt spiral if "determined action is not taken." Ironically, even as various think tanks are pushing up GDP estimates for Europe, the BBK itself has said that "sovereign debt worries in the Eurozone would likely weigh on EMU growth going forward." By now everyone is used to such contradictions, however. “Without determined counter measures the danger exists — as observed in the case of Greece — of a spiral of rising risk premia and increasing debt, which in turn can be associated with negative effects on growth,” the bank wrote. Either way, with sovereign intervention, the market has managed to pause the constant sell off, which has benefitted one primary asset class. Gold.
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First...
gold then bitches
There is another side to a gold story.
We do know that Central Banks are manipulating gold markets to keep gold prices down to hide a real inflationary trend. However, for now, the FED got an excuse to let gold prices go up. This excuse: EU economic and euro problems.
The FED don't want or need any competition to US$. As with Mexico, the FED are happy to see euro down but they are bailing out major WallStreet banks caught in EU lending fiasco.
Sorry to destroy your theory, but gold is the ultimate competitor to the stupid dollar.
I am Chumbawamba.
But it is very expensive to hold gold down. Something must to give.
No it isn't. The cost for the Fed to produce dollars is nil, and they won't ever have to produce gold when they can cash settle.
Do the German dealers stock gold coins again?
The German problem seems to have been panic buying by novice retail customers, who would only buy K-Rands or Philharmonics, something they have heard of. Other coins are still available. Check, for example, this Brussels site:
http://www.gold4ex.be/servlet/javaparser?pgm=lst_or_new&lg=uk
which shows the buy-sell spread. All 1-ounce coins have converged, but half-ounce coins sell for a lower premium than full ounces, which makes no sense unless many customers insist on name-brand 1-ounce coins. (Odd coins, like old Austrian koronas or the smaller Mexican coins, can be had at spot.)
But it does indicate that a lot of new blood is entering the retail physical market.
There is always a higher premium for well-known coins. Trust me, it can be hard to sell unrecognized gold coins; stick with the name brands.
How about the Mexican gold coins? . . . beautiful coins, low premiums. They do come in odd weights though.
Odd weight, foreign language. You can sell it to a dealer (who will pay you less) but give an individual a choice between spending $1000 on something from USA or mexico and they buy american every time. There is a reason the premium is low.
Plus the mexican coin doesn't list the purity, so people think you are selling them junk.
60% Hispanic population in area where I live. Next time I buy firewood, I am going to try and trade for Mexican Gold, just to see if it is liquid here in barter among Hispanic population.
It might be easier to deal with mexicans. The last 50 peso coin I bought had a loop stuck to it; someone had been wearing it around their neck.
If you're living in (metric) Europe, they're among the best, eg, 20 pesos = 15 grams. The gram price is widely followed here (via the kilo-bar price).
Mexico has the Liberdad now which is 1oz pure
1.2057 oz, actually.
http://www.apmex.com/Product/158/Mexico_50_Peso_Gold_Coins_AU_BU.aspx
That's the old 50 peso gold coin.
These days the Mexicans mint Libertad coins from 1/20 to 5 troy ounce.
http://www.apmex.com/Product/57827/2010_1_oz_Gold_Mexican_Libertad_Angel...
I know what you mean, but it's not so critical for me, as I would only sell to a dealer. (I would barter with silver, but not gold, as I wouldn't want anyone to think that there's more where that came from.) But I would advise a novice to do just what you say.
There are many dealers in Brussels, and if there's a run on the euro I think that there will be many more (plus silver as well, which is thin on the ground here).
Maple Leafs forever for me.
a canadian speaketh
maple leafs, kuggerands , eagles all carry a larger ask,
but when selling the same is true ,, so it washes out . over a gold filling blasted flat on the railroad track
It's a matter of taste, and I don't know how it will play out.
I was working in a coin shop during the 1980 run-up, and I recall that all prices flattened out. Over $700/oz. e were buying everything, even K-rands, at under spot. The reason was that there were few buyers and many sellers, so everything had to go to the melter or we'd run out of cash. If it works this way next time, all premiums will flatten out.
So now I try to get the most gold for the dough, as long as the coin is reasonably easy to look up. A good site (with bad prices) for this is:
http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/
Just the opposite here, smaller than 1oz carry higher premiums, and the Austrian koronas, ans mexican coins, IF you can get them, carry higher premiums.( In the US).
How were they on the Leafs or Nuggets? I don't imagine Eagles are more than a niche product outside the USA. The indian retails here seem to go heavily for leafs
Asians much prefer 999 gold. They don't like eagles or krugs.
Strange. I see no advantage to .999 gold. An ounce is an ounce; with .900 you're getting an extra 10% of copper free.
.999 is too soft to circulate and must be handled carefully. .900 coins circulated for 50 years and were worn but still legible. It's not likely that today's gold coins will ever circulate again, but we are in uncharted territory, so you never know.
I did a quick check and it looks like things are getting back to normal. Krugerrands are still hard to find though.
Yes, but supply is still tight , see two webpages:
http://westgold.de/html/prizeList.php
http://www.proaurum.de/edelmetallshop/gold/barren.jsp?action=showSearchR...
interesting that PHYS is down >8% this morning...opex?
May have something to do with the secondary issue for PHYS announced yesterday
1. Gold pays no interest or dividends
2. Therefore, my discounted cash-flow model shows its value to be zero.
3. Conclusion, it is worthless
Hmmm?
Gold is an awesome store of wealth.
Gold is a poor to passable medium of exchange.
Worthless? False conclusion.
Shit, half the stocks out ther pay no interest or dividends. At least I can hold my gold coins.
If you have a degree in business you should ask for your money back.
I think he was being facetious, guys. Either that, or specious.
I am Chumbawamba.
Obviously so, Chumba, since he didn't add that you can't eat it.
I think he was just doing some fishing for comments. A lonely soul wandering in the Internet(s). Even a flaming comment is considered conversation.
Sorry, I'm a newbie here. I was just trying to pre-empt some of the inane blather that appears from time to time.
As for eating it, for what it's worth, I always did like those chocolates that were made to look like gold coins. I doubt that a chocolate-covered CDS tastes half as good.
In that case you are forgiven -- and welcomed!
Try this if you get hungry for a little o' the gold: Edible Gold!
1. degree in business > wipe my @$$ with it
2. money back > wipe my @$$ without bleeding it [nice, soft, freshly minted FRN]
Same thing with my wife
Payment of interest is not an intrinsic value of fiat currency either. It is only by putting it at risk (lending it) that interest upon it is earned.
No reason why if gold is treated as money that interest can't be earned on it by putting it at risk (lending it).
In fact, to my understanding (and I stand ready to be corrected as I delve into an area I am no expert in), gold can be leased and is leased, often at quite low rates, due the the fact if you are being paid back in gold, there is less risk of the value of the asset being inflated away by the time it is returned.
Jesse seems convinced gold was suppressed below 1200 until yesterday's close to keep some playas from feeling an inconvenient short squeeze. Why wouldn't they just keep it down, because it's too costly?
>>Why wouldn't they just keep it down, because it's too costly?
Becasue the sellers know they can't physically deliver and they know that buyers will demand delivery more and more
It's a slow motion run on the gold bank. This party is about to go nuclear, figuratively if not literally.
options expiration.
got to make those options worthless.
its being done every time before options expiration.
basically you are in-the-money by a wide marigin one day, and the next morning you are out by an even higher margin.
Its what they do. JPM, Barclays and ScotiaMocatta; in short: bigger LBMA banks.
Cheeky you make the ideas of fraud, manipulation, and theft sound so beautifully complicated.
That's a compliment, if there was doubt.
Yeah, sorry. I do go into too much detail more often than i should.
Basically they naked short, via derivatives, the night, or two nights before the options expire. And ramp the market up by buying older derivatives as a way to cover. Then the newly issued derivatives take role of those i mentioned before. Its basically a way to prevent a run on the bank. You will see more and more of that in the upcoming months as the belief in the ETF and paper gold + currencies deteriorates further. I expect LBMA will experience a run on its vaults in 2 year time. Then; SHTF, and Gold [real Gold] skyrockets.
Good morning all..Hey cb, at what price do you think gold becomes to high for people and the sentiment turns and people begin to jump to Silver or copper or something else?
For many retail investors it became to high once it passed 1k mark. The institutional investors who are bullish on it will buy on every occasion; no matter what the price is. Maybe at 1300 you will see some liquidation just to lock some of the profits. There was a lot of comments by a lot of people here on ZH about them buying silver because gold is to expensive. The problem with Silver is that it is still mostly considered as an industrial metal and not a store of wealth. That might be changing in this environment; but i really dont know; i rarely watch the silver price. If you compare the market movements in gold with market movements in silver, rarely the two correlate. Mostly silver responds to a macro-picture while gold is isolated. Sprott spoke a lot about that in his latest interview with BNN. Its here on ZH; page 4; check it out.
Mr. Bastard,
So this is reflected in the spot price, right? So for those of us buying PM along the way, how do we know what day of the month to buy? As in, is there a calendar date this will always happen on, allowing better deal on PM?
Oh most definitely; since it is nothing more than temporary dilution. As for the calendar. Here you go; i hope it helps, since it has all the options expiration dates:
http://www.heritagewestfutures.com/downloads/futures-options-calendar.pdf
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/files/Metals_2010_Calendar.pdf
Mr. Bastard,
Thank you for the help. May I impose on you for one more question, as I am not a futures trader. On the link under Gold and Silver, the next date is listed as:
FND LTD
Jun 5-28 6-28
How do I decipher that? What date would this tell us to buy PM?
dont pay attention to the first link; i should have not posted it in the first place since it has nothing to do with what we are discussing here; my mistake. FYI; FND=First Notice Day LTD=Last Notice Day; the #s are dates.
check the second link from CME; thats the one which is important.
Thank you so much, Mr. B., for providing such valuable information. I'm not a financial person and come here to learn. I just did. Thanks also to Jesse for pointing out the manipulation at his site.
Look for options expiry dates.
I am Chumbawamba.
I was readying Harvey Organ COT's reports and one thing he said that I haven't quite put together is that some months are "physical delivery" months and others are not. This was a nondelivery month and next month is a delivery month.
So, I assume that delivery months will be more important/harder to supress and cause upward price pressure as deliveries occur.
Can anyone explain this to me in more detail?
rebel on buying gold mc'coin .. if you got the dough .. go.
those who saw this coming are setting on 800 .900 gains in gold ..
looking back who gave a shit about the option date \
looking forward who will give a knats toorh when gold goes 3000,
guys making the buying of gold way to complicated ..
go down to the coin shop as you walk chew gum at the same time . plunk the dough down .. kuggerand , maple . eagle .. . bingo
Truer words never spoken, Dumpster. If ya got the bucks, buy the metal. If you are worrying about $10 or $50 spreads you are speculating, not storing your hard-earned cash. I've been buying since 2001. I've sold only a handful of 1oz AGEs to one friend, and he sold it back to me after he had a $150 gain -- at $875. He now wishes he still had the coins, but he was sure he had caught the mouse by the tail. I have kindly refused to sell him any more. Gold is not for selling until it becomes an OBVIOUS bubble top, and we ain't there yet.
Rocky, remember I was sorting out silver quarters in '65, so am with you on this. The question though is, that as we move forward, and receive paychecks, and purchase gold, if there if a better calendar date to do so.
Keep delivering the detail Mr Bastard. Many of us climbing the learning curve. need to understand our enemy well...And thanks for your time.
Hulk,
I believe you bought arable farmland correct? Got any links/references on how to identify land suitable for farming?
land do the tungston test lol
+1
It's just like used cars: "Why are you selling?"
CB,
You got it, it's like a Vegas trip, and clockwork.,,,,,,,,,,,
Having that synchronized expiration date across the board makes seems to open the door for manipulation. Is it too complicated to have rolling expiration dates? I know this post will attract lots of "duh" responses, but I always read about manipulation around this time of the month and could never figure out why they all have to clear at the same time.
Good morning Cheeky, I know this is off subject, but take a look at this...
"Boots and Coots"...Well intervention services now comprise the majority of the revenue they generate.
- how convenient is it ?? that Halliburton purchased this outfit one week before the disaster in the Gulf.
On April 9, 2010, it was announced that Halliburton would acquire Boots and Coots for $3 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $240 million. On April 12, Robbins Umeda LLC reported it has launched an investigation into "possible breaches of fiduciary duty and other violations of state law by the Board of Directors of Boots & Coots, Inc."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_&_Coots
Yes, really, how fucking convenient.
I dont want to drift into conspiracy zone; but this is just too well timed.
I will browse a bit trough oildrum.com; they should have a thread or an article about that.
Well, here it is Cheeky, just released..."Boots and Coots" called in to stop oil well blowout in the Gulf.
BP brings in Red Adair's successor to stop oil leak
"When Adair and his partners Asger Hansen, known as Boots, and Ed Matthews, or Coots, went off on a job, Campbell was usually invited to join them. "They'd say, 'Hey, fat boy, why don't you just come along with that stuff and make sure it works?'," he recalled."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bp-brings-in-red-adairs-successor-to-stop-oil-leak-1982899.html
Creepy British lobbying video ("DO NOT COPY") advocating police state:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8rlK2T0Qg4
psyops
Woah, you're right. I just got "infowars"ed. It's fake. But it is slick. And why?
http://www.blackwellbriggs.com/
Where is Ann Marie Calhoun? Is it just a respite?
I'm adding to your post WW, here is a link to the same video, and immediately underneath is a re-edited video of Blackwell Briggs' lobbyist video, not to released to the public, edit/enhancement by Conspiracy For Good and spokesperson Ann Marie Calhoun, which gives more background to Blackwell Briggs and their schemes in the world, including their own paramilitary forces:
http://ethrill.net/2010/05/22/cfg-spokeswoman-ann-marie-calhoun-missing-...
Oh, very good. The remix is what I was thinking the whole time - but most people I know would fall for it so it's good to SHOW them. Thanks.
FRENCH OPEN
..........clay bitches†
LOL. Are you pimping yourself, babe?
FYI, the Dow has rallied 350 points in the last 24 hours.
Of course it has...haven't you seen all of the positive news about the economy. It is as strong as ever.
Green Shoots Bitchez...
This artificial market melt up is good for my Palladium play, Dow 25000 here we come, palladium 1000 at the same time.
See Harvey Organ's blog. He has been talking about the shorts and expiry (yesterday) keeping the price supressed until late yesterday. Some discussion and links here:
http://gold-silver.us/forum/gold-silver-precious-metals/harvey-organ's-comments-for-this-week/
All the traders that specialize in the PM's saw it coming. The banks and hedge funds were not subtle.
You don't need a whistleblower -- these arrogant dickweeds are practically taking out billboards, and daring Gensler to do anything about it.
What goes up must come down.
rather...what was forced down must go back up.
I documented that smackdown in gold BEFORE it happened. A number of people did. That was a big fat target in the gold options concentrated around 1200.
I've seen it before and referenced the smackdown in silver as note in my post on it.
I made some nice bucks on the trade, but I mean come on. That was as clumsy and blatant as it gets.
They smashed it down for expirations to $800, then $900, then $1000, then $1100, now $1200. They should be in jail, but at least it's easy to profit from consistent criminal behavior.
Yep. The more governments intervene in the process, the more valuable gold becomes.
And who's gonna dare stop these 'interventions'????
Slow and steady suits me just fine, Assetman. Too much movement and we have corrections that are too violent, as well as more chattering about gold being in a "bubble". I'm no big player so I don't envy the suits that can play that game. A few meager coins at a time is all I ask.
Dont worry the regulators are on it, right after they fix the two dents in the front bumper of their car.
+1 surpressed silver whistleblower.
It should be "bullion bitchez!"
Cold hard physical bullion.
Oooh. I like it. And it's alliterative to boot.
BULLION BITCHEZ!
And now that options day has passed and all those 1200 calls have expired worthless, gold has had no problem going to 1217-plus (so far). Good thing this didn't happen yesterday, or the wrong people would have made a lot of money.
real gold does not look at option dates
only the dim nickle flippers believe paper is gold .
all this hollering about paper ,, does an option pay interest, it slowly bleeds value with time , 85-90- of the traders lose
whats not to like about gold in hand ,
other than ignorance , sloppy thinking , and the constant wild ass reasons given not to own gold ,
how many who spout about buying gold this m that .. actually have any gold ,, or for that matter trading the paper .
mostly sparks of dental floss, needing a wide open mouth