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Liveblogging Top Kill

Submitted by George Washington on 05/26/2010 14:48 -0400

(Liveblog continues here (I can't liveblog at ZH and my own blog at the same time, so the most updated version appears at Washington's Blog).

5:29: Suttles said that BP will know the operation is a success from
(1) visual observations and - more importantly - (2) pressure data.
Specifically, when pressure data over a period of time shows that no
oil is flowing up in the well, then BP will know the operation is a
success

5:07: BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles says at
Coast Guard press conference that it is too early to know if Top Kill
will be successful. Will take 24 hours to find out. So far, it's going
according to plan. 7,000 of barrels of mud have been pumped so far, up
to 65 barrels per minute. Increase in volume at the riser was expected.
One of the ROV's video cams is obstructed by all of the mud.

4:35: Coast Guard will give an update on the Top Kill effort at 5:00 p.m. Central Time.

4:06: CNN reports :

BP
Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said Wednesday it will be 24 hours
before authorities will know whether the "top kill" effort to plug the
runaway oil leak in the Gulf is working.

Speaking from a command
center in Houston, Texas, nearly four hours after the effort began,
Hayward said the operation was going according to plan, but cautioned
against trying to reach any conclusions based on the video shots from
the stricken well a mile below the surface.

"It's unlikely to
give us any indication of what's really going on," he said. "Increases
or decreases are not an indicator of success or failure at this time.
We will be continuing for at least another 24 hours, and it will be 24
hours before we will know whether or not this has been successful."

Earlier,
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal had said he expected to know Wednesday
night whether BP's "top kill" attempt to plug the runaway oil well in
the Gulf of Mexico is working.

3:46 Volume
spewing from riser seems to be increasing noticeably. It could be that
spill is worsening, or it could be that the volume of mud being pumped
into the well by BP is being increased.

3:41: Color of material
shooting out of risers is getting darker. Either the type of mud being
used is changing, or the mud-to-water ratio is changing.

3:25:
The water has noticeably darkened around the BOP (see for example the
second feed from left on the top row of the CNN feeds). Remember, this
is more than a mile underwater, so no daylight reaches spill zone. I'm
not sure whether leak volume has increased, chemical composition has
changed to a darker substance or something has changed on the video cam
itself.

3:15: Increased turbidity (cloudiness in the water) surrounding the BOP. New leak?

3:06: CNN is reporting that - according to BP - there is no news (either good or bad) to report on the procedure.

2:29: CNN now has a single webpage with 8 different feeds. Each feed is small, but you can get an overview from starting with CNN's site.

2:00: Please note, it is very difficult for laypeople to have perspective on whether Top Kill is working or not. Things could very well look worse before they get better.

For
example, BP is trying to pump a lot of mud down the line at high
pressure. This could be spewing back up through the riser, before the
whole spill is shut down.

1:50: Definitely numerous, light-colored plumes shooting up from the riser and seabed.

1:43:
Either new leaks are springing from the seabed itself, or the color of
the leak is changing to a lighter color and we can see more detail of
the leaks from the riser.

1:29: This is the moon landing moment
of this generation. People around the world are watching live feed of
the attempt to stop the oil leak.

1:25: Red clots of matter raining down from somewhere. I'm not sure where.

1:24:
Riser leak looks worse, and more methane hydrates. This is not
necessarily unexpected, as shutting off most of leak from BOP could
increase pressure of oil in riser.

1:07: Methane hydrates (snowflake like methane crystals, also known as "clathrates") spewing from the riser. Not in worrying amounts, it is just interesting to watch. For more on methane hydrates, see this.

12:53: I've added a PBS website feeds, showing the leaking riser. Obviously, the riser is still gushing.

12:43: Technical problems with video cams. I'll take a quick break and see if they fix them.

12:26:
The underwater cameras have been inspecting the BOP for some time. To
my untrained eye, it looks like much of the BOP is still intact,
although I noticed a small leak, and some equipment breaks.

The
camera panned around, and there are still 1 or 2 big gushers coming
from elsewhere (One of them looks like the main leaking riser which has
been filed over the past couple of days, although it's hard to tell).

Noon: A Coast Guard spokesman just said could take 3-4 days to know if top kill is working. Similarly, AP notes:

BP
spokesman Steve Rinehart said the company will pump mud for hours, and
officials have indicated it may be a couple of days before they know
whether the procedure is working.

Indeed, as BP notes on its live cam webpage:

Throughout
the extended top kill procedure – which may take up to two days to
complete - very significant changes in the appearance of the flows at
the seabed may be expected. These will not provide a reliable indicator
of the overall progress, or success or failure, of the top kill
operation as a whole.

11:52: Remember, BP has two purposes in video inspections:

(1) To see
what is happening now, in terms of stopping the oil spill, and to see
which equipment is likely to break of spring a new leak;

and

(2)
Documenting for use in future lawsuits, to determine whether BP,
Transocean, Halliburton or someone else was the primary negligent party.

11:50 a.m. Pacific Standard Time: BP is implementing the Top
Kill method on the oil spill right now.

I can see it on the live video feed (I am
providing feed from four websites, as they some sites are periodically
going down):

WKRG's Website

wkrg_oil_spill on livestream.com. Broadcast Live Free

Congressman Markey's Website

BP's Website

PBS'
Website

AP notes:

Bob Bea, an engineering professor at the University of California at
Berkeley, said the procedure carries a high risk of failure
because of the velocity at which the oil may be spewing.

"I certainly pray that it works, because if
it doesn't there's this long waiting time" before BP can dig relief
wells that would cut off the flow, Bea said.

For more
on Professor Bea, see this.

Godspeed ...

Updates to follow.

For running comments from oil industry
insiders, see The Oil Drum.

- advertisements -

Wed, 11/10/2010 - 04:56 | 715391 cheap uggs for sale

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 02:16 | 376341 Immanuel Cunt

OK. Is this what's really going on?

1. The hole blows.

2. BP tries a few tricks to suck the oil into tankers. Such a waste to let it go, innit.

3. 37 days later: Fuck it, guys. This is not working. I guess we'll just plug the damn hole.

I see.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 04:37 | 376365 Sudden Debt

I think it's all part of a advertising campaign.

ALL SUMMER, OIL AT BLOWOUT PRICES!

These 5 weeks are part of a teaser campaign.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 02:13 | 376339 CEOoftheSOFA

I wish I could see the video, but I don't have enough bandwidth here in Yemen.

I don't know why they didn't try the top kill a month ago. It is a risky procedure, though. When Pemex had their blowout in the Bay of Campeche, the blind rams were closed and the well was under control. Then Red Adair came in and attempted a top kill and blew off the wellhead by raising the pressure too high. Red Adair was a legendary fire fighter, but I heard that well control wasn't his area of expertise.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:54 | 376283 Miles Kendig

I had thought my prior case of the Eeyore's regarding this catastrophe would take the cake. Unfortunately I was wrong.. Damn

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:23 | 376256 Oh regional Indian

An interesting, sideways look at the spill.

For a long time now, we have been done in by industry in insidious ways. They have killed, maimed, poisoned or otherwise dis-eased millions upon millions of people through various products of convenience (always convenience, such a terrible word, I suggest you do the etymology, Con-Venue, coming together to do great harm, believe or not).

So we've had Non-stick cookware, aspartame, cars (cars, terrible things, have killed and maimed so many, but as long we remain statistically safe, we continue to use them, so convenient after all), microwave ovens (really really bad), Mobile telephony (terrible curse, no doubt a sickner, but so convenient), GMO, GM foods in particular....the list goes on and on and back in history.

All these deaths by a thousand cuts were released to the public backed by spurious studies telling us they were safe, quelling a vocal minority on the disastrous after-effects of said introduction.

But this Deepwater Horizon (such an apt name, so powerful) cannot be denied. Will not be denied. It is out there, gushing away, washing ashore, day after day, week after week.

This might truly be the tipping point because the effects of the industry's lack of anythign (morality, conscience et. al.) are in our face and cannot be denied. Hard to argue with dead, oil soaked birds, dead oceans and goo streaked beaches. No PR can spin this positively. If I may pun, hopefully aptly, this is Industry's watershed moment and ours.

And such a choice it puts before us, eh? How many of us stopped driving to work or play because Oil is such a disaster, literally and figuratively and metaphorically?

Oil is the basis of our convenient lives. So all this tooth gnashing but no real action. Till it hits the pump (higher price than I can afford), or sweeps into my home, environment or food chain, I'll just be a harried bystander.

Much more convenient that way.

We can all justify convenience, much harder to justify action.

I am B.

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:11 | 376246 Trimmed Hedge

Did anybody just see that?!?

Some dude swam by in the foreground, waving and mouthing what looked to be "Hi, Mom!"

WTF???

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 23:43 | 376215 Peter Goldmann

one more thing b4 i go to bed dreaming of 1256 gold so my auy and sa go on a moonshot...

the common assumption is that the under seabed oil field has an output through the pipe that just exceeds the 2300 pounds per square inch of that depth. it could be 32 times that for all we know.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 23:36 | 376203 Trimmed Hedge

Why not just plug the damn hole with Obama?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:14 | 376249 DoChenRollingBearing

+++++

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 23:14 | 376166 Peter Goldmann

the top kill cannot work. The pressure of the rising oil exceeds the pressure of the weight of water at 5000 feet and until the pressure is equalized by the output diminishing over time we are screwed. It could take dozens of relief pressure holes to equalize the pressure. This could last for years. The fishing and tourism industries will lose trillions as the oil moves up the east coast and hits Europe in February. the attempts are to show we are doing something. I have often wondered what would be big enough to give us a WWll experience to bring the economy back as neither a Korean or Iranian conflict would be big or long enough. I guess we have it. What a lovely first post...

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 23:42 | 376208 MsCreant

Welcome Peter, I'm a social science Ph.D/Prof who likes to goof too much here. Can you tell us a little bit about you?

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 23:52 | 376224 Peter Goldmann

I have been a daytripper since 1979 trading my first stock "datapoint". I remember july 1982 when the dow was 760 something and it rose 14 points that day and it was the start of the bull market. we did not know it until sept/oct but it was breathtaking.

like most here i am certifiable... I have institutional memory, sort of. my first datafeed, Bridge Station C cost $1300/month in 1979!

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:04 | 376241 MsCreant

I'd love to hear from an expert on this oil thing. Someone without a horse in the game (cept we all are on earth, that horse). You spoke with such certitude... I was wondering where you were coming from with the oil commentary.

Common sense says 1. They don't know and 2. This is not good.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 22:13 | 376065 anynonmous

posted at another blog- I've visited wells being drilled, and this is the color of drilling mud. It has the consistency of a milk shake. Mud is fine so they can pump it up to very high pressures, and get it through valves and piping. The whole BOP is broken, so when they pump mud into it, it's going to come out the top where the oil was leaking. The hope is that they can build enough pressure inside the BOP to push the column of oil back down into the field. If you do this long enough the sheer weight of the mud will keep the oil down, and the pressure can be let off at the BOP. At that point they can 'easily' plug the well head with concrete keep the mud an oil down there, hopefully forever. This is being done at ridiculous pressures. The water pressure at 5000 ft is about 2000 lbs/sf. One of the surface ships can deliver mud at 20,000 lbs/sf. So there should be plenty of pressure to push the oil back down the well bore, provided they can keep up with the mud leaking out the top

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 21:56 | 376044 silvertrain

I dont see anything leaking..That mud shot may have stoped it, I sure hope so, That would be great..

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:12 | 376247 DoChenRollingBearing

I heard on the radio today (7:00 PM ET) that BP said it would be about 1 day before we know if their top kill attempt works.

.....

+++ to above poster who posted link to site about why so many BAD things are happening to us so fast now. O/T, but it is looking like more gold & ammo might be a smart purchase.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 21:28 | 375999 bruiserND

There are only 2 ranks in combat, the composed and the un-composed.

Why Are So Many Horrible Things Happening To America All Of A Sudden?

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/why-are-so-many-horrible-things-happening-to-america-all-of-a-sudden

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 20:37 | 375907 Lndmvr

I used to haul drilling mud from a mine in Bonanza, Utah to Houston. What a ride down the Rockies! Anyways , could someone tell me if this is correct way to discuss this process?---- Take a long balloon like they make animals out of , Squeeze it at both ends, Does the bubble in the middle look like what will ahppen there?

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 20:17 | 375874 Ti9ers Wood

I'm having trouble figuring out which one is the right hole...wait...maybe I should rephrase that.

BP's site with the webcam shows what I am assuming is part of the BOV (blow out valve) floating back and forth. Where's the camera focusing on the MAIN leak? I know there are many different ones, but we keep getting video streams of sidepipes and fissures. Anyone have links to the real deal or have they been put offline by BP?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:49 | 376280 merehuman

Really feel fooled . Check time stamps. I still think theres is a worse leak they are not showing. Probably due to a lack of trust in the entire damn system. USA moves like a stumbling drunk controlled by a shreeky wife.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 20:08 | 375864 theadr

They'd better be measuring the flow (spill) rate right: BP owes US our royalty payments!

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 22:26 | 376079 anynonmous

@theadr

They'd better be measuring the flow (spill) rate right: BP owes US our royalty payments!

Interesting observation. The President has created a commission to determine the flow rate, which would be an essential bit of info to initiate the Top Kill technique. Yet they cannot say how much oil has been flowing as that technique is implemented.

Meanwhile has it occured to any that this clever marketing label "Top Kill" is similar to Bush/Chenys/Rummys "Shock and Awe"

Maybe BP and the current administration are using the same PR agency that Bush/Cheny utilized.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 21:00 | 375950 ZerOhead

I love the way you think theadr!

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 19:44 | 375829 bob_dabolina

Not sure what I'm looking at. It looks like theres just a bunch of shit flying everywhere.

Can anyone help me out? What the fuck am I looking at?

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 23:56 | 376230 DaveyJones

are you referring to the video or the world in general?

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:21 | 376251 DoChenRollingBearing

All of the above.

Epic Failure coming to everywhere soon.

Batten down the hatches and get ready.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 20:00 | 375856 Almost Solvent

What you are looking at will end up making the Valdez seem like a small drip

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 21:03 | 375958 MsCreant

Prehistoric.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 19:36 | 375807 sangell

Anyone else as flabbergasted as I that the decision to allow BP to attempt this procedure was made by a local Coast Guard officer, Mary Landry?

Way to step up to the plate Obama, you're a man's man for sure!

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:19 | 375663 Slewburger

Holy shit you're telling me that BP is actually going to put mud down that hole.... you mean like they should have the first time.

It all boils down do the price of MUD, using seawater doesn't seem like quite the cost saver anymore.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:17 | 375660 MsCreant

Aw man, I clicked over here cause you said "Top kill" in your headline. I assumed there was some live action with some captured CEOs going on, and some blogging with some friends to boot. Hell, their just trying to repair the hole to hell, that's all. Shoot. You got me all worked up. False advertising Mr. Washington. Very sensationalistic.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 20:22 | 375884 Cathartes Aura

patience, MsC, patience. . .

looks to be an event-full summer.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 21:02 | 375955 MsCreant

I have too strong of an imagination. I am Alice in Wonderland here. I love you saying that with a buzzardz avatar. Just kinda sitin there, aren't you? Know all about patience, don't you? Wonderful. I'll speak to you in mad killer woman if you will speak to me in scavenger bird...play for a while because reality is no fun at all.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:07 | 375636 mynhair

Sink Algore down to there, and let him breathe some oil.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 20:38 | 375908 Nolsgrad

course then we wouldn't have the internet.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 16:50 | 375420 Panafrican Funk...

I'm probably just not understanding the video feed, but on the WKRG feed... did they switch views? Or did the blowout preventer just completely dislodge itself and has been replaced by that current view of about 5-6 gushers (of mud?) I really hope they just switched views, or holy fuckity fuck.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:25 | 375676 MinnesotaNice

Business Insider has a new headline as of 4:49pm... Deepwater Video Now Showing Multiple Gushers...

http://www.businessinsider.com/shocking-emergence-of-multiple-gushers-2010-5

Thu, 05/27/2010 - 00:57 | 376278 Miles Kendig

Great link and so good to see again. I have missed your temperament.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:41 | 375699 ZerOhead

That's a zoomed in view of the leak from the riser on top of the BOP I think... so no need to worry just yet...

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 17:13 | 375465 ZerOhead

They switched the 'views' when they went to the live feed to obscure the leaks so that no flow volume estimations could be made. I think this was intentional on their part since after it's done their lawyers will still contend that it was only 5,000 barrels/day.

Time to check things out...

Nope... everything looks OK and the views are much better again since they stared with the mud.

If I am correct they are injecting 100 barrels of mud per minute right now... (3,600/hr... or 86,000 barrels/day) hopefully that will overcome the flow of oil and slowly work it's way down the well. It will take time.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 17:23 | 375533 Panafrican Funk...

Help out a noob through this explanation:

1. Mud gets sent through at a rate higher than what's leaking out of those pipes.

2. That mud slowly starts pushing against the pressure of the oil.

3. ?

Maybe I'm just completely nuts, but it sounds like they're just pushing on a spring, and as soon as they turn off the mud flow, that fucker is going to blow the fuck up. Completely fucking stupid interpretation? Honestly, I really hope it is.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:17 | 375647 ZerOhead

1. Yup! (hopefully... if not then they may need to do a junk shot to slow the flow from the BOP... potentially dangerous since the increase in pressure at and below the wellhead has the ability to make the blowout worse..)

2. Yup!

3. A column of drilling mud accumulates down the well to eventually equalize with the pressure of the reservoir @13,000 PSI (max) stopping the oil flow. Too little? It blows out again. Too much? It hydraulically fracturess the reservoir rock creating larger cavities for the oil to enter the well from. (Very bad news...) It will take days to see if it will work since the immediate area around the reservoir is already partially depressurized and it will take time for it to build back up to the ambient 13K PSI.

Or try again with junkshot first...

Plan 'B' Junkshot blocks the existing flow from the BOP with rubber crap resulting in a rapid pressure build to around 13,000 PSI on the whole enchilada... If it holds and you then inject the mud then OK...if not a larger blowout or casing by-pass through the seabed is very possible... which is the worst of all possible scenarios since the flow will be OUTSIDE the well and will be almost impossible to totally stem even if the relief wells do their job.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 21:27 | 375998 msjimmied

"which is the worst of all possible scenarios since the flow will be OUTSIDE the well and will be almost impossible to totally stem even if the relief wells do their job..."

That is the scary part. Worst case scenario, how much oil are we talking about before this well runs dry? I know nothing about this stuff! TIA.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 17:43 | 375586 Sudden Debt

what happens to a system that is near tipping point of breaking down when you double the pressure.

The real question is the cement cassing. It's broken, and what I would actually like to see is everything arround the BOP and under it.

Not now, tomorrow or the day after. If the cement casing is broken, the BOP will clog because of the oil. But then you'll get a lot of other leaks and the hole will get 2 times as big.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:29 | 375685 wang

There is probably no reason to expect that the casing was compromised unless during the initial incident the blowout was so intense that it fractured it. If that is the situation and if they are only able to partially stem the flow then the problem will have just gotten a whole lot worse. Likely the reason they hesitated to use this technique.

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:49 | 375721 ZerOhead

Head to www.theoildrum.com wang. The speculation by several experts is that the Haliburton cement job between the 7 and 9 7/8 inch casings was to blame. So yes... bad news is the casing has been breached... the good news is that it's potentially a deep breach therefore fixable...

Heres the well layout...

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/GOM%20Oil%20Spill%20Figure_2a.jpg

Wed, 05/26/2010 - 18:47 | 375714 kimyo