This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
With Local Gold Inventories Depleted, Panicking German Dealers Stage Run On Krugerrands
Last week we noted that several prominent Austrian and German gold dealers had run out of inventory and were no longer transacting with a European population that has suddenly discovered gold religion. As a result, dealers are now focusing procurement efforst outside of Europe, with South Africa receiving the brunt of Europe's panic for physical precious metals. As the FT reports, "At the Rand refinery in South Africa, the phone has not stopped ringing this week." Just imagine what will happen when the gold bug goes airborne and jumps across the Atlantic...
More from the Financial Times:
Panicking German dealers and banks have been desperate to get their hands on krugerrands, the world's most popular gold coin.
"We have some extraordinary sales to German customers," says Deborah Thomson, the Rand treasurer. The refinery, which usually sells 2,000 coins to each customer at a time, says that last week it received an order from one German bank for 30,000 coins. Another bank requested 15,000 coins.
Frank Ziegler, head of precious metals at BayernLB, one of Germany's largest wholesale suppliers of gold, says: "People are buying krugerrands like crazy." The frenzy pushed gold prices to a nominal high of $1,248.95 a troy ounce yesterday while the euro price surged through €1,000 an ounce for the first time. Adjusted for inflation, however, gold prices are still a long way from their all-time high above $2,300 an ounce in 1980.
Although coins account for a small part of the market, they are one of the best indicators of investor sentiment towards the precious metal. And right now gold is in massive demand from investors who see it as the ultimate safe haven at a time of market turmoil and as one of the best hedges against a possible resurgence of inflation.
Other important factors are supporting prices: institutional investors are pouring billions into bullion-backed exchange traded funds; central banks have reversed 20 years of selling gold (and some, including the Chinese central bank, are buying it); and mine gold supply growth has stagnated.
In focus are also the big physical and otherwise gold ETFs which have recently received much notoriety over the likeilhood they are hollow ponzi scams which will shut down operations the second there is even a whiff of a gold run on their holdings.
There is no indication that Germans are ready to stop buying. Panicked by the possible inflationary implications of this week's €750bn eurozone bail-out, they have been snapping up gold coins and small bars at a faster rate than in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
The European Central Bank says its government bond purchases will be "sterilised" by operations to remove inflation risks. But Martin Siegel, manager of Westgold, a dealer of gold in Frankfurt, says people "are not as dumb as economists. They believe there is going to be inflation and are buying gold to protect themselves"."
German investors are notoriously wary about inflation. While few are old enough to remember the hyperinflation that wrecked Germany during the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, the episode remains etched into the national psyche: newsreel from the period has been running on the news in recent days.
The appetite for coins has been so intense that shortages are developing. "In the European market there is a shortage of krugerrands," says Mr Ziegler. As a result, the premium paid for krugerrands in the secondary market has risen from about 2 per cent to 6-8 per cent.
The interest has not been confined to coins and bars. ETFs, which hold physical gold and issue shares to investors, have also seen large inflows.
The world's largest, the SPDR Gold Trust, has increased its holdings by
50.5 tonnes in the past two weeks, more than in the first four months
of the year. Other funds have also been building their positions. Gijsbert Groenewegen, at Silver Arrow Capital, a New York-based precious metals hedge fund, says investors have been flooding into his fund "in swarms" in the past week.Analysts and traders believe gold could rise even higher in the short term.
Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, the precious metals consultancy, believes that the current upward trend "could run a bit". Edel Tully, precious metals analyst at UBS, forecasts the gold price will hit $1,300 an ounce in the next month.
One bullish factor is the lack of physical gold, or scrap, being sold, despite the high prices. In Asia, where the gold market is especially sensitive to price, a surge in prices usually leads people to sell their old gold for scrap, boosting supply.
But that is not really happening yet. Afshin Nabavi, head of trading and physical sales at MKS Finance, a gold refining and trading company in Geneva, says: "Sales of scrap have picked up but not that much."
Even if gold is indeed entering a bubble mania phase, the mania in PMs is far less exuberant than in stocks, with the stock market multiples larger than that of gold and silver, and with far greater retail and speculative participation. Should there be an unwind, we expect stock prices to drop more and faster than those of PM products.
h/t Slim Beleggen
»
- 39410 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Not to mention the almost psychotic repetition - one could say that about gold lovers - but at least I don't go troll paperbug sites. I wonder where else they troll.
Remember, this ain't the movies:
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/01/15/sunstein
I'm glad that you four guys (and/or gals) above are here, fighting the good fight against the spreaders of lies and misinformation.
If I seem so militant in my battles with disingenuous and dishonest trolls, it is not just in support of the dozens or hundreds of members who participate in this forum, but for the thousands or tens of thousands who do not do so, but who nevertheless read these articles and comments. Many of those readers are probably still just learning about the economic and financial issues and subjects, such as holding gold, which are discussed here, and might be easily led astray by the disinformation sown by those whose purposes here are less than honorable.
Valid point akak. Many a soul is still finding their way here.
But Rocky, there was a post from JB acknowledging he was MB, but that he lost his password or something. Isn't that true JB? Don't you acjnowledge your previous existence?
we need one of those Gold ATM's in Germany..
Germany has Gold ATM's.The company responsible for the Gold ATM's is based in Germany. I believe the first one was place in the Frankfurt airport last summer.
http://www.gold-super-markt.de/edelmetall-shop/gold.html
Retail investors are ALWAYS the last to get into bubbles. Institutional investors are always the first to go short. This generally marks the top of markets.
That is all.
I road my motorcycle from San Diego to New Orleans and back the last two weeks. I saw hundreds, if not thousands of billboards for gold. Notably, advertising WE BUY GOLD. Not one said WE SELL GOLD. Who's the chump again?
I have a sister in germany. Spoke to her today , she says they have ads there, sayen to bring your gold and silver and we will give you money....crooks! Gold and silver is money. Accoring to her on a TV poll germans by 90% did not want to bail out greece.
Maybe they are sending all of that scrap gold to Greece as part of the bailout?
You mean institutional investors like Bear Stearns - now JPM - who have continually increased their short position in silver over the last ten years? Yep, they are early, but how many more decades before it starts going down again?
Retail investors are ALWAYS the last to get into bubbles. Institutional investors are always the first to go short
Subtle, JB, subtle. Now you are suggesting I should have had myself institutionalized years ago: clever. Irrelevant, presumptuous, invalid, but still I'll give you a 'gold star' for comic relief; 'cuz I been far from last to go long cuz'...
Sure, mb that line has some evidence supporting it from the 1920's all the way up to the turn of the century, but those days are getting to the fast and short strokes. More and more people are paying closer attention to the craven injustice of constantly being treated like a sick experiment on slowly boiled frogs.
And while you're choking down your greenback salad please do us all a favour and take the time to educate yourself on correctly interpreting the COT's. Your TA of them illustrates a laughable simplicity in its scope and breadth.
Good luck with that.
Krugmanrands?
Now that's funny ;-)
Slight correction: rants is spelled with a 't'. ;)
LOL
To put this in perspective, 45,000 krugerrands means just 9000 people can get their hands on 5 krugerrands each. Demand for gold is up hugely, but it's not really a frenzy.
You got that right. It's not a frenzy, it's a panic.
"Panicking German dealers and banks have been desperate to get their hands on krugerrands"
Panicked and desperate, eh? Not a frenzy though, by any means.
If a theater were on fire, would you refuse to evacuate simply because everybody else was evacuating at the same time?
Sometimes, occasionally, running for the exits is the only intelligent course of action, even if everyone else is going the same thing.
And while gold buying has jumped in Europe, it is still only a very small minority who are currently engaged in it. The vast bulk of the herd is still sitting in paper assets, and will most likely continue to do so until the bitter end.
Stop thinking purely in trader terms.
(Or should I say "traitor" terms?)
With mint sales zooming off the charts get in the ground floor of
the next vending machine niche, bullion coin machines that
dispense currency.
Would you like real or synthetic gold?
"Remonetization is pretty simple: you have two neighboring countries, Goldenstein and Dollarstan. If Dollarstan systematically dilutes its currency, its savers will move their savings to Goldenstein... (If there was a Goldenstein... its citizens would just be rich for a living, like Kuwaitis.)"
"So people move their savings to Goldenstein because gold is going up. And gold goes up because people are moving their savings to Goldenstein. At the end of this cycle, gold is the standard medium of saving and dollars are a kind of soft, hot-potato currency - a North American Peso."
"Even (perhaps especially) among the goldbugs, there is a considerable confusion between two kinds of artificial gold. Let's call them virtual gold and synthetic gold. Moreover, the (now highly suspect) London gold market itself does not distinguish between these types of claim, considering both unallocated.
"Virtual gold (VG) is artificial gold that's backed, on the balance sheet of the issuer, by some kind of future gold receivable - eg, a gold forward. This is typically maturity-transformed, a stupid and dangerous practice... for instance, Buns & Buns of London might have written a promise to deliver gold in 3 months, backed by a Barrick promise to deliver gold in 36 months.
"Again, if this seems dangerous, that's because it is dangerous. In a gold maturity crisis, as all holders of artificial gold demand allocated gold, gold interest rates spike - gold now is much more desirable than gold later.
"But gold interest rates are tied by arbitrage to dollar interest rates. So what happens when this irresistible force meets that immovable object? Come on. In nature, what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? What happens is a giant sucking financial death-vortex singularity, that's what. Don't ask these kind of things if you don't want the answer."
http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2010/05/strange-rumblings-i...
Is ZH just a front to pimp Gold? The buy Gold posts are taking up 50% of the band width. Buy Gold, we got it, for the 100th time. Next.
That's what article titles and click throughs are for. You have full liberty to choose which ones to (not) read.
I cant friggen belief it. Some knothead junked Tyler.
Say, Tyler how about that PObox thingy. Am holding the 10oz for you even if it gets worth 500 per oz. Please send me an email.
Tyler! Get a P. O. Box in Switzerland or wherever and I think funds would come your way.
Make it easy for us to donate!
Fundamental truths bear frequent repetition.
Your plot was thin and your story was underdevoloped. Character flaws galore as well. I say construct a more decent narative, or choose a different topic.
ZH reports the facts and you are jealous. What is the top Master Bates? What is the effin top?!?!?
Don't expect replies to pertinent questions.
.
I have noticed that pattern among the maniacal gold-haters as well.
Last I heard Master Bates (Bravo) said it would fall to $900 after touching $1226. Of course this was before "Euro Tarp II: Massive Implosion". Oh wait, that should not matter, as FIAT is backed by hopes and dreams...come what MAY!!!!!
Look Repo, ZH is THE best website. Instead of searching around the net for truth and facts, ZH puts out a ton of relevant financial information. Most is backed up by facts and the rest is clearly opinion. ZH never has portrayed its opinions as facts. Furthermore, the posters of this blog are extremely well informed and I have learned so much just by the differing thoughts and analysis these guys give. The humor and sarcasm on the posts are icing on the cake for me. So, stick to the main stream media where you'll get the news the politicians are willing to disclose if you wish.
Vote for Pedro.
Make that two.
Second that
+tres
Nobody is forcing you to read ZH.
Uncle Gordon, Lord Blankfiend made me promise to never ever ever read ZH again or he wouldn't let me do God's Work, tossing little shiny warm brand new rainbow colored Skittles he'd just pooped off the 65th floor terrace to the starving peons below.
Lord Blankfiend is a unicorn!
http://chadhasty.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/obama-unicorn.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WxspAqGN8fc/SWzy7asmcRI/AAAAAAAABvw/9pvANy3Ro20/s400/obamaridingunicorn.jpg
http://wwrtofobama.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/new_years_2009_obama_unicorn-21-550x379.jpgw.a
For a bonus giggle:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_StX-X72vqGM/SmlnhCUoHXI/AAAAAAAAAWg/aHAguJVqEkg/s400/unicorn+wtf.jpg
You sure about that GG? LOL
Brilliant!!!
nobody is forcing....lol are you so sure. I think Geithner has a neck lock on these paid shills. Just an opinion. But MsCreant and others are correct, they do hijack the thread. Further some one coming here and getting their cookies off by hurrahing us needs to be ignored.Truly.
anyone who says gold is in a bubble..lives in the propoganda MSM bubble...only 7/10 of one percent have gold or silver in their portfolio...contrast that number with 95 million americans who are in the stock market...now tell me which one is a bubble..now throw in the fact that the market is being propped up by the plunge protection team...and the precious metals are being attacked by the hacks such as JP MORGAN and GOLDMAN SACHS....what do you think will happen when the world realizes the currency ponzi system..as well as the over valuation of the stock market..where do you think that money will go to.......buy now..or pay more later.......
I will answer your question with a question:
What will happen to the price of gold when the economy improves?
Also, one more question for you:
Do you really think that JPM and GS, who were right 61/61 trading days last quarter, know less than you about the future price of gold?
JPM and GS are parasites feeding off of the carcass. The question is, Johnny Bravo, what do you produce that the chinese want to buy that will bring us growth in national wealth? Hot Air?
Do I care if I've sold mine by then?
Does JPM care if they never intend to cover their short positions?
The economy will not improve, because it can NOT improve, until the current financial and monetary systems are fundamentally reformed or restructured. Do you see ANYTHING that our political masters and their bankster allies are doing as leading toward such reform? Of course not. They are only digging a deeper hole of unpayable and unsustainable debt.
Gold will continue to increase in value and be worth holding until it is reincorporated into the monetary system --- and then it will STILL be worth holding, if only as inviolable cash.
And I, yours...
when the economy improves sufficiently without excessive money printing, the price of gold will go down relative to that currency. Ergo, gold has a long long way to run, my friend.
"what will happen to the price of gold when the economy improves?"
who knows and who cares.Most will be out and will have traded or sold or ag land etc. at that point. you dont hold it forever just for the hell of it.there will be an exit for folks when that time comes im sure...
btw- I do not own any gold, not 1/10 of an ounce. I went bust and cant hardly afford my utility payments.I do have a small amount of silver that im hoping will tag along somewhere..
Oh, great. This exact question again from Johny. Bravo.
What economy, Mr. Summers?
You mean the JPM and GS which would no longer exist had they not been bailed out?
"What will happen to the price of gold when the economy improves?"
What will happen to Goldman Sachs credibility when they stop lying about everything? Oh wait. Neither of those is going to happen. You're going to have to find some way to get people to deposit money into banks and earn interest off that money before you even begin to have an improving economy threat. Neither of those things are or will happen.
When you earn 4 percent interest you suffer 8 percent inflation. When you earn 1/2 percent you suffer 12 percent inflation.
And yes. I really really think JPM and GS know less about the future price of gold than I do. I REALLY DO. Of course they are going to hide in art which they are gobbling up at record prices.
So Jaimie's $35,000 gold commode was Art. Got it. I bet he really gobbles it up. Do you think he hides in it?
No the big bankers are buying up art. So they have assets going forward knowing it will crash. But yes they have gold squirreled away as well but this time they are really going for high end art.
Many are very clueless and deluded.
Read about LTCM. They really have no fucking clue. It's a little astounding.
Some of the old partners are aware of the dilution of the culture, but really, there's a lack of reflection and self-knowledge that shocks me. When Blankfein says that he's doing "God's work," he really believes it.
I've met some of the new breed of GS folks, and I've talked to them extensively about these issues. They're in Harvard pretend-land. The money is coming in. They have their girlfriend(s) or boyfriend. They have a nice apartment.
I even met an HFT quant dude back in January (among other random GSites). I told him that the SEC would probably clobber them for front-running, citing precedent. The guy was a total machine - friendly, nice (pretty wife), but adamant that what they were doing was according to the law.
I expect that the front-running is legal, because GS never farts without running it by their ultra legal team.
Traders are usually a different story, of course (the salt-of-the-earth kind), but even so... they have no clue what's going to happen, and they're unprepared for it.
Reliance on false bravado does help calm their fears. Until it doesn't. It doesn't matter how much "support" they have for the status quo. It's setting up too much pressure and too much stress. The weak link usually breaks but the weak links have been polishing up their chains reducing their stress riser growth. It's just a natural occurance. You can only keep so many people in the dark for so long. There's massive raisings of conciousness that occur throughout history. It happened in atlantis. It happened around the time of heraclitus in greece. It's happening again.
Justice is purely derived from justification. Until you reach a justification that neither produces justice or good results and loses all moral and logical highground.
"Do you really think that JPM and GS, who were right 61/61 trading days last quarter, know less than you about the future price of gold?"
They may be right when it come to swapping pieces of paper showing fractional ownership of some corporation. As long as they have insiders pulling the levers that drive the economy, they can trade and make predictions as to the direction of prices for some commodities or stocks. What happens if the levers suddenly become disconnected? (think Toyota accelerator pedals)? Some people buy gold "just in case" the wheels fall off of the bus. Blankfein will be furiously turning left and right as the bus (economy) grinds to a halt due to an unforseen or incontrollable event.
Or maybe everybody who owns PM's are jsut stoooopid.
Oh, and an edit for you:
"What will happen to the price of gold IF the economy improves?"
There, I fixed it for you. Just because the price of my stockpiled canned goods or ammunition declines does not make we regret having them! I think of it as my "beer" - it makes me sleep better at night.
How about silver? That one's even better. 1 billion ounces of silver is only 18 billion dollars, but it takes them 2 years to produce that much and all of it is already spoken for. If you want to take these bastards down, forget gold, silver is their achilles heel. Just 1 million people with a couple thousand dollars could end this charade right now. Wanna end the FED? Buy physical silver, and get rich in the process...
The idea of adjusting gold prices for inflation does not make sense to me. Purportedly gold prices always reflect inflation and inflation expectations and no adjustments for CPI or other government price index should be necessary, correct? Gold prices soared in the 1970s because of inflation, they cratered in the late-1990s because of deflation, they rose early this decade on reflation, and gold prices are now soaring on inflation. Gold prices tell show monetary imbalances real time, why the additional adjustments for CPI?
What are you saying? Do you even read?
The late 1990's was not a period of deflation.
We are not in a period of inflation now.
The price of gold skyrockets when chicken littles think that the sky is falling.
The price of gold plummets when times are good and you can't piss without making money, while the government is running surpluses.
If the inflation argument were true, gold would have been decreasing in price over the last couple of years as deflation has been the norm.
Inflation is a booming economy.
Deflation is a recession.
The two terms for each scenario might as well be interchangable.
Johnny,
Just curious, why is it that you ONLY post comments here on ZeroHedge when the topic turns to gold and/or monetary collapse, and always with a pronounced anti-gold, pro-establishment bias? Isn't there some pro-fiat currency, pro-Federal Reserve, or pro-equities blogs that you could swarm, in which to make affirmative or postive posts? What motivates you so highly to incessantly troll every single gold-related thread (and ONLY the gold-related threads) here on ZeroHedge, to slam somebody else's particular chosen vehicle of financial investment and insurance? I hate fiat currency, central banking and our monolithic two-party political dictatorship, but I do not seek out online forums dedicated to such themes in order to criticize, annoy, denigrate and attack those participating in them --- in my mind, that would he hateful and destructive. I choose to be positive and constructive. But I guess that's just me.
I can't stand it! It looks like we are no longer in an uptrend in money supply inflation yes. However, we are still very high as far as money supply is concerned--so, JB, you get that point-it is like ahalf truth straight from BO's mouth though. Have you been to the grocery store lately? Do you not see the overt evidence of PRICE inflation? Most people do not care about money supply inflation--they care about price inflation. Price inflation is related very strongly with money supply inflation. Most people here are good at remembering numbers. I can tell you that when I go to the grocery store and see things like bread, eggs, and produce going up all together, it is at the very least an indicator of basic price inflation.
Let me ask you--did some rogue goldbug come to your fiat/equity blog and whiz in your wheaties? If so, I offer my apologies. Outside of that-good luck to you shorting gold with GS and JPM and everyone else who wants to short gold. Keep it up and there may be a very small chance I will find a good entry point.
Hmmm....
Krugers are a bad investment right now. You pay a to high premium for the collector image.
Buy the Chinese panda's. They are still easy to buy, and are 83 euro per ounce cheaper then the Krugers.
And it's gold you want to buy, I don't care if it's a panda of a rainbock that is printed on them. For all I care, it's Osama bin ladens face that is on them.
Make sure you bite those pandas before you fork over your increasingly debased paper though.
You are being amazingly stupid today. I WANT AMERICA TO BUY GOLD SO IT DOES NOT COLLAPSE! Get a grip!
You are getting tiering.
I doubt many here who favor gold do so for the sake of gold. We were pushed here by the powers that be and the lies that ensure their entitlements.
The reason gold is so favored within ZH is in part because its essence is analogous to the ZH mandate. We consider gold to be an affront to fraud. The store of its value is liberty and independence. For these reasons gold's assention is destiny.
I believe most of us would prefer to go back to our regular professions.
I also do not think it is essentially greed that keeps us here so much as it is fear, fear for the economy and liberty.
My opinon only but I think it is right
VERY well said, DD!
I would add that holding gold is also a "vote of no confidence" in the massively corrupt and unsustainable economic and financial status-quo, and a means to fight the stranglehold of the powers-that-be over our financial destinies by denying them our participation in their pernicious and parasitical paper Ponzi schemes.
Thank you akak
Good to know I am not alone
“The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson.
DbleDn,
I agree..............WHO want's to have to be ON WATCH 24/7/365?.
Bush did some crappy stuff............but I slept a hell of a lot better, and enjoyed life more.
These SOB's are SO in your FACE, 24/7/ 365, it's like your on a Marathon, that never ends.( like a friggin Gerbels wheeel).
It's like the movie JASON, or FREDDIE.................They never friggin end.
Please, some return to normalcy,sanity, would be a huge relief.
This depends from shop to shop and from country to country.
In the UK, Krugerrand's are cheaper.
"You ediots!"
You saw a movie and now you know the truth. Get in line, 'Merca is ready to gamble on the Hollywood Futures Index. Tell them what they have won!
Another things Bravo... These Muppet's are all pikers none have a liquid net worth more than 500k. If they did they would realize you can't do anything with a 1 million or 10 million in gold bars? Can you move them? hardly. can you exchange them for goods if we enter an armageddon situation? NO.
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO WITH YOUR GOLD?
DELUSIONS OF GRANDIUR
I'm gonna eat my Gold!!!
Hey there Girlfriend!
Is that a roll of gold Eagles in your pocket, or are you just happy to see me?
yipcarl,
Retain your WEALTH.............any idea how long it took those Muppet's to save that 500k?................
Your already screwed on Social Security, Medicare(IF you paid any in)...............after paying in for a lifetime.....wanna get BENT over twice?............NOT me.
Newsflash, not everyone can be sleeping in millions of FRN's............
They worked their ass off for it.
Like Ross Perot once stated, (about the only thing he said I agreed with),
There are millions of people out there, IF they had had the advantage of an education, the material things in life, and the financial security to go to college and BE all they could be, then their would be a lot more LIKE HIM........(and the other Uber wealthy folks he was addressing).
You do not get to choose your parents, just like they do not get to pick / control what their children do, grow into.
Just shoulder to the wheel, and do ALL you can to do the best you can, with what you have...............
Prove you know better. Give us a solid Graham and Dodd, CFA, fundamental analysis on one (1) stock that you believe will have out performed the S&P 500 and gold over the next year. No copy and paste, either. Your own analysis, please.
Personally, with prestidigiflation taking hold, I think stock picking is dead.
The yipper is just upset because he sold Au @ $1k. The good news is, since he is only 16 years old, he has plenty of time to recover from his idiotic mistake...
Gold is actually easy to find these days.
Silver : almost sold out
Platina : sold out
Paladium : sold out
The fact that 12.5kg gold bars are still a easy buy doesn't bode well for the gold price.
Er, right, so because the average individual investor can't afford the $500k to buy a 400oz bar, gold prices are bound to fall?
OMG RUN FOR THE EXITS!
Exactly. If the news had been about shortage in 500g or 1kg gold bars, it would have been a bit better. But Krugerrands... Small retail investors are now jumping in, which means we are probably near top. Not necessarily a multi-year top, but a top nevertheless. I should probably lighten my position a bit already next week, although a week or two more bad news would be nice.
We're only missing the classic contrarian signal, a front cover story about gold in The Time or Newsweek.
It is utterly ludicrous to even imply that gold is in a "bubble" right now!
Tell me, how many Americans or Europeans have any significant investment in gold today, versus those who are in equities and bonds? The fraction is certainly minute.
And how much discussion on, say, CNBC is there for gold vs. equities and bonds? How much time are they giving to gold vs. more "mainstream" investments? 2%? 1%? Certainly it is in that range.
I am still waiting for gold bubble-callers (who without exception could NOT see the bubbles in real estate and equities a few short years ago, curiously) to tell me how we can have a bubble in an asset that the ovewhelming majority of investors do not only NOT own, but still scoff at, if it is even on their radar at all.
Don't give me this stuff about only 1% owning gold. Globally very few people own anything. In that Meltdown video, they claimed approx. 40% of Americans have less than $10K in retirement savings. Keeping in mind gold isn't the only possible investment - that does not leave much space for Krugerrands. Living from hand to mouth will increase everywhere in the Western World.
To say gold ownership will increase from the current level is true. But it is a bit like noting that Russians don't drink a lot of beer compared to Europeans, and over the next few decades this will change gradually. Despite the increased consumption, the price of beer isn't going to skyrocket. The amount of gold is growing at a smaller pace than investment demand, but with all those bailout packages in the pipeline (Greece, Spain, Portugal etc...) the IMF will surely be selling some more tungsten from their vaults. When the IMF vaults are empty, Fort Knox audited etc. THAT will be an interesting moment. But it might still take 10 years or more.
I own physical gold, and gold's percentage in my portfolio is probably way bigger than it should. All this stuff about Gold vending machines and small Krugerrands running out smells like we're in a bubble mode. I'll wait and see the market reaction. Thus far the sentiment has been good: gold reacts like it should. At some point it stops going up even with bad news, and then it is time to sell some.
akak,
10/4,
When Rogers,Faber,Schiff,Celente,( those penniless fks), stop telling folks what's happening, going to happen, and it STOPS coming true,maybe we will have a bubble.
The ONLY Bubble....is the Left's Media Chanting Mantras, who are either stupid dorks, or are IN the system.
You don't get it Martel. It is not about buying and selling gold coins to try to duplicate GS, JPM and all the banks perfect trading records. It is about removing their oxygen by removing their liquidity by taking your assets out of their rigged casino.
If you are willing to accept that the system is completely corrupted, then the only logical strategy is to remove your support for it.
ConfederateH . Done that. Food, silver and lots of toilet paper.
Working my way to that as well.
I still have not heard any logical reason from the Haters why you cannot have 5% - 10% of their wealth in gold.
Yip? Bravo?
Bulk baby wipes are great. Better wiping; more hygienic. They dry out, but water brings them back. Probably not biodegradable for compost piles I would imagine though.
Don't worry, the U.S. monetary system will collapse eventually, even without you buying Krugerrands.
By stocking up (e.g. buying extra food and getting physical silver) one returns money to the system while taking delivery of "extra" food and silver.
How can that have any effect on anything? If PMs are manipulated (e.g. 100:1 fractional reserve), why would anything change if the ratio went to 300:1 from 100:1? At best prices could go up a bit, but that's about it.
Or the similar (recent) idea about withdrawing money from banks. Banks can simply borrow more (it will cost them a bit extra, but so what when interest rates are so low) from their CB.
I may be wrong, but I don't see much logic in these ideas.
Reminds me of the Beanie Baby craze a few years back, what are those worth now?
I ate all my Beanie Babies. Having a real tough time with these Eagles, however. That in itself proves that gold is useless.
lol RR . if they got it , you would be junked by now.
http://bit.ly/ahRIdh
Check eBay, and see what their selling for...............
Given what I think are pretty balanced investment cases between deflation and inflation right now my strategy for what it's worth is: I am long physical gold but am also long puts on GLD. To the extent we are in the grip of a wholesale abandonment of fiat currencies and hyperinflation I should do well. To the extent bank's continual hoarding of capital and collapsing monetary aggregates produce an near-term deflation I am hedged. To the extent there is a disconnect between physical gold and paper gold I should do really well on both sides of this paired-trade as physical gold does exceedingly well relative to paper gold which in some instances may be worthless.
Any thoughts?
Perfect Strategy!
I'm long physical silver & gold, and long Puts on SLV.
Hedging the Hedge for a +Delta Only.
Pay 5% to ensure no losses for 1 year? ALWAYS!
if i've said it once i have said it a hundred times: gold is in severe and permanent backwardation - the paper price be damned....
What kind of backwardation doesn't show up in the futures prices?
The kind that has the future papered over in 100:1 leveraged ETF's. The kind that is forced to write rules allowing paper delivery. It's in backwardation. PERIOD. It's just scammed over right now. Which should end in about 2 to 3 weeks.
Dear Hephasteus you have given me hope that we are not eternally condemned ala NKorea.
Please mark this day on your 2011 calendar and when the day comes, take a moment to reflect how very wrong your prediction was. I hope you're an institutional investor, because if you're a small investor (like myself), it's just another bearish signal.
When the gold/paper gold-kamode blows up, there will be shit all over the place. But it is not time yet.
as far as Karl Denninger goes..he still thinks 19 arabs out of a cave did 9-11....cant explain why no plane parts ever found in shanksville or the pentagon..or how building 7 just fell over by itself..or the over 100 other inside job flashing signals that still burn bright red....to listen to a moron like him..will only lead to you becoming a moron..
Nah, it was the same aliens in Roswell that staged the moon landing that were responsible for 9/11.
They're busy turning the United States into Zimbabwe as we speak.
Here is the real story behind Roswell JB, its called project Mogul and has been declassified for roughly 8 years now. Fascinating story.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Mogul
Very interesting thx for the link.
Much more to it than that wiki article DCRB. There are both sound channels in the atmosphere and in the oceans. WWII pilots carried a hollow metal sphere that , in the event of a crash, was designed to crush at a certain depth, thereby making a sound.
The depth was set inside the sound channel, and then 3 sound pickup points would triangulate the downed pilot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAHSb5WwADU
"...they said it was a weather balloon...I know the truth"
No way I'm getting involved in this, except to point out that most of the 19 Arabs were from prosperous families in SA and Egypt. I doubt any of them ever spent a night outdoors, let alone in a cave.
+10000 yea Zeitgeist. I did not belief, but investigated and found the explosives where they should not have been. 3 buildings with different scenarious yet all three went down the same way as any other building being demolished. Tv watchers only get what they are told. Further insult to the country is the medias complicity in the bamboozeling of the populace.
at this rate we may emulate N Korea given time.
We're 90% there now......................there are different kinds / breeds of sheeple.
Just pray, that nothing MAJOR hit's the US before November.
Otherwise, we're screwed...........( it's great now) compared to what has been pre-planned for us.
+1
When purchased for a post - armaggedon scenario gold jewelry would be a better alternative. You're not registered when buying a golden ring, it's easier to come by second hand. And if you need to bribe or "arrange", are you going to ask for change from a Krugerrand?
and you will ask for change for a ring , maybe a nose pin lol
and you are not registered when you buy a gold coin for cash.
Oh we have anti-golders out! Good, more fuel in the fire..burn baby burn! Hey, throw some paper on that fire, I will throw gold, and we will see what lasts! Who do you guys prescibe to, Prichter? Erin Burnett said, "I do not see what the big deal about gold is?" Who the hell do you guys listen to? If we move into recovery then fine, maybe gold goes down. But we are so far off from recovery it is not funny! And if the system collapses, it will be caused by a monitary collapse, then what will we use as a medium of exchange? Pooka shells? Large stones? ipads? What are you guys smoking?!
Try me, come on you gold haters...try me. I am right here.....
Just to be an asshole, you spelled monetary wrong. LOL.
But seriously, you know why fiatscos won't collapse, EVER? Because people have confidence in them.
Dollars are backed not only by every asset in the United States, but by the labor and future labor of people in the United States.
It's why we will never, ever need a gold standard again, and also why a gold standard is not practical.
You cannot back infinite growth with a finite resource!
You need a potentially infinite resource to back potentially infinte growth.
I could argue any point you throw out there, buddy.
Rome didn't crash in a day, my friend.
People have confidence in them until they don't... That's what makes it a collapse.
so an out of work zit head ,
puffing his feathers . like some dang peacock ,
spend us much time trying to get off food stamps as you do trolling for a key gold bash.
the river is rising and puzz head thinks His leaking boat will float
+ uh, uh, some huge number!
Don't mess with da dumpster!
hay dochenrolingbearing
how things going for ya ..
take care
Things are going just fine dumpster! Thx.
You take care too, but next time I drive over a bridge, I'll look for a troll.
infinite growth for our infinate population and our infinate planet with its infinate resources. infinite idiot.
How's about a perpetual motion money printer to fix all of our world's problems?
to bad your labor is missing ,
as it is infantile ,,, and dumb is infinite .
"[Y]ou know why fiatscos won't collapse, EVER? Because people have confidence in them."
Did you read the article?
"Dollars are backed not only by every asset in the United States, but by the labor and future labor of people in the United States."
Three letters: W.T.O.
"You cannot back infinite growth with a finite resource!"
Exactly, peak oil will make sure of that.
"Rome didn't crash in a day."
In my opinion, it did. The day Constantine walked into the Treasury, met with the families that ran the Treasury, and said, "I know you are out of gold. I know your city is on the brink of collapse. Let us write a book to put you in power, and let me conquer your city." The Ruling Class families agreed, it was time for a change. They were indeed out of gold, and knew that the peasants knew this as well. Best to have a false flag (war-siege) and make times desolate for a few years. This while Constantine gathered the troops and surged forth onto new lands, in a quest for, of all things, gold.
Master Bates, FIAT is done. America is not collecting any taxes to pay for your doelarr. Your argument is tired. You jest we are strong just to argue, right? How can we afford the military spending? How will we afford the interest on the debt? How will we afford the debt? There are no jobs Master Bates, and there will not be any. Maybe we go and farm, maybe we hold onto 30% unemployment, but times will not get better soon. And then we move from the plateau of peak oil, to the downside of production. Then growth will decrease.
Also, do you not know that your FIAT system revolves around gold? Banks hold gold and make it the first loan of recourse. Your system still runs off of gold, and it needs leverage. Faith is a misnomer. Have HOPE Master Bates! Have HOPE in your hand, and see where that gets you!
I had hope, i loved hope but her hair fell out and i ran out of viagra.
Should there ever be an audit (a REAL one) of the gold in Ft. Knox the U. S. fiat currency would crash like the Hindenburg. On the other hand, gold may be there but it might not be ours! Default would really crank off the countries who thought we were just holding onto it for them. Bad news situation. Gold holdings (as reported by the Fed/Treas) of the U. S. are one of the reasons that the dollar has any credence whatsoever.
Hang on tight -- here comes the flaming.....
Shit in one hand, Dream in the other.
See which fills up first.
You cannot back infinite growth with a finite resource!
You need a potentially infinite resource to back potentially infinte growth.
And the dollar is now a perpetual motion machine to allow infinite growth forever? Of the dollar supply you mean? But that would validate the very reason gold has value - it is not and can not be infinite, unlike dollars.
Spoken like one who really enjoys a good bank panic every few years.
Which is the product of fractional-reserve banking and, therefore, the inevitable result of fraud --- NOT the truly free market.
Say what you will about gold and silver as money, but in a truly sound-money, non-fractional reserve banking system, bank runs could NOT occur, any more than we have grocery runs or gasoline runs or clothing runs, due to more promises for those items being issued than there are the underlying physical commodities backing those promises.
Funny how our society cannot seem to learn this lesson.
ink (for the print press, of course)
Are these anti-Gold people as angry at the price of Gold as they seem to be on their posts?
I hope so...
See ya'll at $1500 Bitches!!!
That anger may actually be based on fear.
Currently I see gold bugs as having more fear. Branding people "anti-gold" sounds like fear, as if there couldn't be any shades of gray, just black or white.
If you have a position in any financial asset, be it gold, stocks or aunt Martha's brown-stained panties, you better keep looking for reasons why you could be wrong. That's just intellectual honesty, helping you make better decisions. Gold bugs here react very negatively to every opinion that doesn't side 100% with them. THAT smells like fear. I reckon we could be going into very high prices with gold, but come on, you're telling me there can't be any drop in gold prices? Not even a 5-15% drop and a few months of whipsawing?
Let’s evolve, let the chips fall where they may.
A number of us have stated that we like JB's better considered statements. Where the financial system is headed is pretty obvious now. My main fear is that folks don't protect their wealth by owning PM's. Really. I hate to see innocent folks get destroyed by the evil doers....
In a previous life, I taught H2H combat skills to civilians, cops and the military. My goal then was the same as now, teach folks how to protect themselves against those who intend them harm...
hulk your my kind of guy ,, have a cold one on me
Will do. Be nice to have one together someday...
If we get to fofoa's $55k, we'll all have a party! If society is still around of course.
OK, 1 drink at $1500.
Absinthe anyone?
I'll take my 1 drink in a TALL glass. Fill it to the brim please!
Noted yr comment re self defense training...
I do Tai Chi, just this afternoon I did 3 forms. Helps keep the manic part of me in line. (There is AT LEAST ONE who know(s) me personally here in ZH land, and also know(s) that the Tai Chi is probably my only hope...)
Re drink, ONLY if there is any absinthe left, LOL! Otherwise, have to settle with Hungarian Unicum or whatever I have around...
You got nothing. If you were going to change anyones mind your little army of trolls would have done it months ago. Tell me how butthurt I'm going to be when gold crashes. Tell me how many soliders are going to kill me. If authority is based on violence. So be it. Violence for everyone.
The worst moment for you will be, when the gold neither crashes, nor skyrockets. And nobody's coming to hurt you, even though you've got more guns & ammo than the state of Latvia. Your MRE's about to expire, but every grocery shop is still stuffed. No hyperinflation, no nothing. And the black helicopters still ain't coming.
Wasting time is the greatest misinvestment.
"Wasting time is the greatest misinvestment."
Now you're talking about something you have a shitload of experience with.
martel
there is a big difference between the trolls being careful about gold with any kind of reasoned reply
but they are not about being careful but a determined attack to besmirch themselves and also gold.
their is a big difference .. and a troll is a troll in any language ,, and perfer to hedge their bets in pools of spit ,
they are not investors as such ... but out of work pizza delivery people .. just looking for a food fight
they have no idea about what gold is .. and could not float a thousand bucks to buy a pig in a poke
fear lo they the trolls no no fear ,, AS LONG AS THEY CAN KEEP THEIR PIZZA DELIVER job