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Wait, what is this? Selling in both ES and bonds? Surely you jest: after all money just goes from one to the other right? Guess not.
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this is bullish for equities...
/snark
its Transitory BITCHEZ
Fellers, lets not forget a small reality that seems no-body's addressed, as of yet.
But it will be bigger than a shrug.
Many state and local deposit accounts at commercial banks Must By Law be secured/collateralized with AAA rated paper. Some guidelines simply say AAA, some direct obligations of the US Treasury and it's federally chartered agencies...yadda, etc, adhoc, vootie, BurmaShave...
But, many do say just plain and simple, AAA
Now, lemme see here. If Treasury goes to less than AAA, so to does every other piece of paper guaranteed by Treasury/US gubamint. GNMA. AAA gone.....you get the picture.
Money Market Mutual Funds. Similar plights of antsy in some circumstances, depending upon the way the guidelines are written.
Repo collateral..... see investment guidelines, and what about overcollateralization levels?
NAIC reg bounded insurance companies. There go the capital haircuts!
Oppppps same with the banks, eh?
So, aside from the political side-shows, there are indeed some real and salient ramifications with respect to simply, a downgrade, even if there is no payment lapse.
And that's possible my little reptilian friends, for the AAA designation assumes payment in full on a timely basis. The difference between AAA and AA, for example is predicated upon the Probability/Possibility of a deferral/missed payment.
Groan away, folks. If the downgrades happen, there'll be some market disturbances, mostly unseen to the common folk, but a shift in the composition of the playing field, including increased market segmentation....
You got it--but I disagree that they will be "mostly unseen" disturbances. It would be catastrophic. There is no place for that money to go: literally.
Bastiat! You surprised me!
It could go to physical gold. Then we head to $55,000...
It will go to cash first, these institutions can't exist if everyone is invested in gold. They can't make a margin...
Define "cash".
You know, things of value that can be easily traded.
Like cigarettes, razor blades, a metal spoon that can be sharpened into a shank, stuff like that.
That's what individuals will do, but not institutions currently invested in money market funds...
Gold is the death Nell for these institutions; they cannot afford to have everyone run to gold. As such I think they would prefer to leave it in bank deposits rather than invest it wisely in gold for their clients...
deleted
This is all very true, which is why an actual downgrade is so unlikely.
Then again, even if entities are mandated to collateralize with AAA paper, there is effectively none if the US goes, unless everyone wants to scramble for Bunds and such which just isn't feasible. So people will just continue going through the motions until the house burns down around them.
They will simply change the funds' mandate....
An alarming number of people seem to want to continue going through the motions of mindlessly scrambling into CHF, regardless of the European instability it causes or the fact that by way of relative scale- it would be like cramming not just a dozen circus performers into a mini clown car, but rather the entire circus troupe and its zoo auxiliary (including the elephants).
funny... you think they wont change the rules?
ands that's what happens when you start at the top and work down commenting as you go. At least we can agree on a likely outcome...
No problem, I am going to put some UST/GNMA/FNMA into a structured vehicle and tranche it up into several layers and get the agencies to rate the top layer AAA – presto a new levered market for gov’t bonds.
junk bonds will soar!
No they won't Slewie. They have pegs to short term yields. Go rent a cool movie. it has nothing to do with numbers. It's called Less Than Zero. If you have already seen it, see it again. {LEGALLY} YEN...
Gold Lift Off in 3 - 2 - 1... we have Lift! Off!!
Two more days and I am BACK in the USA buying more!
If there is any physical left...
Watch the U. S. Mint commemorative products. They can't raise prices like they can on the bullion products. It takes time and you might catch a deal.
Check this out:
http://mintnewsblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/2011-gold-commemorative-coins.html
damn this is fun
Guess what, sports fans.
Society cannot function with its alpha asset priced near or higher than $100.
The game is over.
RJA anyone?
Tradition bitchez!!
And don't call me Shirley..
Tyler = relevant, but funny too.
Ummm...don't we have an auction tomorrow?
Good call cdad ! Like a glove as always... Ya better run for cover , 2-5 auctions should be really interesting coming up. Yield curves and all. 13 week and 26 week on the chart.
I cannot comment on this because I know nothing about it.
If it drives Gold and Silver up, then great! If not? heh.
All TPTB needs to do is throw in a couple of "Fear Curveballs" like another country is on the brink of default, and investors will once again dump foreign sovereigns and pile into U.S. Treasuries.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rocket up in foreign currencies as well, as each country is in a desperate race to the bottom of the tank.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$GOLD:FXE,$GOLD:FXY,$GOLD:FXC,$GOLD:FXS,$GOLD:FXA,$GOLD:FXM,$GOLD:FXB,$GOLD:FXF|D
Did someone hack robo traders account? he sounds normal
just playing both sides of the coin old stick...
on Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:47
#1446461
Watch the yields on Uncle Gorilla notes plunge to
unheard of lows, while commodities of every stripe get poleaxed as
screaming scared investors pile into U.S. Dollars.
Tyler...LMAO
Bitch Slap Bitchez!
Classic. Still need a ten x inverse robot trader ETF!
LMAO! Ohhhh Robo... He did it to you!!! haha
Is this why his ability to post pics of boobies has been revoked?
I'll miss them -- they were his most relevant comment.
LOL! RoboTrader is down for the count! Poleaxed by Tyler!
robo, you sound soooo bearish
meanwhile, a stopped clock being right twice a day outperforms the contract 1099 processor and his predictions.
robottrader: the ultimate contrarian indicator.
Momo just ultimate faded himself.
OT, but has the Moody's story been censored? Can't get anything but the headline when I click on the comments link?
it's werking for me
yeah, this article was doing the same for me just moments ago...I'll go try moody's again
This is bullish for LNKD, right?
No NFLX or LULU.
NEITHER...
rename the US long bond "The Greecer"
rename the 10 year the "Berflunky"
rename the US dollar the Barney.
rename Congress Parliament of Whores.
QE 3 is Kick the fanny cans up the Barney Rear.
Ill see you 2.5 Trillion Barneys in funny
lisping kick the cans and crash the Berflunkies
and the Greecers into oblivion.
Be Bold with Gold. $ 5000 cans coming.
LOL! Nice!
Cantor: President 'Abruptly Walked' Out Of Debt Talks - Areas Of Agreement 'Not Even $1.4T' In Savings - DJ
So this is going really well. Next couple weeks should be interesting.
Fricking muppets in Washington.
No matter what happens this all ends badly. Even Ron Paul can´t stop the flood, he would do a relatively good job, but this will still end ugly...
And if it is not Ron Paul in 2012, uglier still.
the recent up trend was never in any danger.
In this type of enviroment cash is king, all other assets get hammered.
I thought Money Markets were all invested in European Banks.
I just love you people. Always, funny and witty, entertaining and insightful!
This ought to shake something loose - but theres so damn much to shake.
It won't shake, only crush. You want not to be the crushee.
Did I mention I paid my barber this week with a Franklin Half? I did? Well it's worth repeating.
Paid the lady who cut my hair two days ago less than $5.00, which included a decent tip.
But, I am here in Peru for a visit!
Some advice, any haircut under twenty bucks is going to look like shit.
Since when does fiat determine the value of goods and services? The value of goods and services are valued relative to environment and local demand for MONEY. Remember that dollars or any other fiat based currency is NOT money. Money will never have counter party risk.
Wife hacks at my hair now and then. I am too old to care how I look these days.
You 2 sound like a couple of { PEZ DISPENSERS }
clippers bitchez....
america's about to get leaner (& meaner)
(sustained) selling in both ES and bonds is an "oh shit" moment
My less than $5.00 (13 soles, three soles tip was the tip) haircut looks great!
Going rate where I live is $25.00 (USA).
$3.30 ish, twice a year whether I need it or not...
To cut costs I'm thinking of moving to Japan, where it will all fall out of its own accord after a few days, or so I'm told...
which is good for me, or so I'm told...
Total chaotic trading going on, overbought risk trades in less than 12hrs! The market gets a double whammy of BS rhetoric 1st from China, then Ben Bernanke rambling. Thankfully the rating agencies are lurking. Cause a 2008 blowout is due and they don't wanna be accused that didn't warn the market this time.
Watching Asian indexes particularly China, thanks to their maniacal commie overlords...thy just got Tsunami of oil inflation coming
About motherfucking time. US Treasuries to $0.
Americans havent learned yet that all asset classes can lose value at the same time... or that one asset class can get crushed while the others stay flat. In other words; people can lose with nowhere to hide on paper. This lesson will culminate in the universal realiztion that the farce that the debt load is in any way managable is just that...a farce.
I believe a guy got a nobel prize for the idea that multiple assets going up and down at the same time was an indicator of a coming recession. I think he was on Charlie Rose a couple of years ago.
why do they need to learn anything? the last 3 POTUS held the land's highest office without ever having had a proper job all their lives, this is disneyland, education is so passe, watch tv, eat bigmac, no pay mortgages, and buy cheap ipads made in some sweatshops in the east using plastic (or soon, using your iphones).
btw, long bonds are up again, sorry, I am amerikan, my memory span is only 3 seconds longer than goldfish :(
That's er 6 seconds or somethin...what was that again... er yes, two lumps please...
Thousands of North Americans are complaining of acute asthma-like attacks, gastrointestinal problems, and lingering severe flu-like illnesses including a persistent dry hacking cough that eventually goes away – only to return. Other symptoms of chemtrail-related illness include sudden acute gushing nosebleeds, dizziness, migraines, joint pain, twitching eyelids and sudden extreme fatigue. Short-term memory loss and the inability to concentrate or enunciate simple thoughts are also common complaints. In Espanola, exposed townspeople all started forgetting where they’d parked their cars.
http://www.willthomas.net/Chemtrails/About_Chemtrails.htm
Tyler, you miss absolutely nothing. Or, do you have 200 on your staff. Amazing. :))))
ha ha ha Tyler that's funnier then when Moe hits Curly in the head with a pick-axe..and the axe bends...
If anyone is interested Asia markets are trending down via debt market fiasco. CDS spreads are widening and there is a fat 4400 option strike on the ASX200.
China meltup talk is good for 48hrs, it ends.
Point is you got oil bid, that freaks out the ghost city planners of China.
Sell is back on.
Aaaaaand it's gone. The Treasury sell off, that is.
The 5 year is back to unchanged.
It's all a bluff, the rating agencies would never take away the AAA rating.
Who would be brave enough to yell "The emperor is wearing no clothes"
seems to me that Obama can end this stalemate with a very simple offer.... "Raise the debt target by 2.5T and I will not seek a 2nd term"
This isn't rocket science... 4Trillion = 2billion in tax increases, Entitlements, Union pals(pensions) Illegal votes.
2 Trillion = all of the above minus the tax increases and otool care...
I like the 'bzzz' part of the article.
it's because we are playing the trading game, long bonds may end up higher, but it won't be much higher, so starting to buy into tbt at the lower closes may be good. but buying treasuries will be about buying the higher low until in breaks the ascending traings.
lets see if Italy can offload more junk to the ECB 5s and 10s auction due.
c'mon ECB your unrealized losses must be a trillion + by now...
and you are now on a tighening bias = FUBAR
...asia is sinking, tight. 48hr china bid is toast. it's back on.
greece, italy the whole damn EU. endgame baby
flee.....
check the ES now, italy flopped
It's all hft crap, and yesterday was a great example. we went up to exactly the downward trend line top on the s and P, then had a massive sell off. on normal trading the going above the prior high would have indicated a buy signal. Of course a false one here. generated by hft algos who can push up and dump in a moment. and there are people who don't think hft is a problem. It's a rape the retail investor market and that's they way the powers that be want it. Hard to figure out why we aren't having a very good recovery with these idiots in charge (LOL)
OH, notice it is good for the euro which is up today. shows how screwed up the system is. since we haven't gotten to the top of the down trend on udn, it hasn't dropped.