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Long Euro Speculator Exodus Continues As Dollar Short Covering Pushes USD To First Net Positive Level Since January
The most recent CFTC data is out and the results are in: momentum chasing FX speculators continue to retrench to exit positions, as the Euro long orgy, which as recently as May 3 hit a multi year record at 99.5k net long non-commercial contracts. Fast forward 4 weeks, and the recent plunge in the EURUSD has brought the exposure to just 19.1K contracts, the lowest since January 18, and a level prevalent in October and November of 2010. The 4 week drop is the biggest one month drop, as the momentum to the downside accelerates. Although it may still have a ways to go: the recent "support" is around -50k contracts. At this rate it will be hit in about 3 weeks. In the other camp we have the USD which saw short covering bring it to net non-spec exposure climb from -1,270 to 2,485, the first net positive exposure since January 2011. That said, with the EURUSD on the verge of breaching of 1.43, it seems that the great unwind is now over. A complete historical chart of non-commercial specs, and several other products, can be seen below.
And for those curious, here is the latest weekly update of the 2, 5 and 10 Year treasury exposure: there was some modest 10 year covering even as the net 2 Year position rose to a new high.
Lastly, here's the speculative bonanza in silver. As always, purely in the eye of the beholder.
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Spain is about to implode.
First Zapatero will face the mob.
Then it will be the spaniard equivalent of Mubarak: king Juan Carlos.
With Spain and Greece news like today's any idea why the dollar is tanking?
Probably because everybody realizes that the moment the dollar shows any material signs of strength, Ben will claim that his policies do not debase the currency, and launch QE3.
I am surprised that they are so primitive to still have a king.
It is time for a french revolution, spanish style. Also you must kill all related royalty or the forces of reaction will try to re install the monarchy. The bolsheviks knew this. It is an unpleasant task, but necessary.
I think many of us still call that murder! So that's what's in your heart? The French Revolution was hardly a model for a civil society. I'll take the American Revolution model ANY day over the murder and mayhem model of France that was bathed in blood!
We also have royalty now -- one that rules by executive order and ignores the separation of powers -- the ones granted to the Congress!
It's crazy to think that the revolutionaries in the new world would not have gon after the king and queen had they been a bit closer, as they were in France. The only difference was the distance to needed to lay their hands on the throats of the royals. The american revolution was no picnic in an afternoon.
Blood is freedom's stain.
Mark Twain wrote that for every drop of blood spilled in the French Revolution a hogshead ( large barrel) of blood had been spilled by the peasants upon orders of the ancien regime over the millenia. Any student of french history knows this.
Hereditary rule is against the inalienable rights of man. If it will not leave peacefully then it must be terminated with extreme prejudice.
The 'King' is mostly a figure head. It's the Socialists who have destroyed free markets and stolen the working mans money. The Socialists must go.
.
I will accept democratic socialism over hereditary rule. Hereditary rule is a bigger evil and is against the american tradition
If only it were safe to run to the dollar....
+1
and yet the dollar is still getting spanked.
Yes that obvious silver "bubble" was way out of control, I'm glad that's over.
Every market seems to be working per the script of TPTB.
Lower Dollar: Good for exports
Lower Interest Rates: Good for just about everything, except "savers" who refuse to invest in stocks
Higher Stock Prices: Perpetuating the permanent feedback loop to boost business and consumer confidence
Crude, Gold, Oil prices capped at will: Inflation can be "whipped" at any time via unexpected margin increases
China Small Caps Impoding: Proof that the "big money" is made in the West, not the East
Man you've got a thick skin. Every time you post anything people junk you out of force of habit- yet you keep posting. By the way how is the trading full time thing working out?
Hehe.
You gotta have a thick skin if you hang out in fight club. Dont take snything personally.
Yeah, that lower dollar is really helping me export meals onto the table.
i see that your esteem for our banksters and PPT is sincere, RT.
un-freaking-believable, rilly!
on the week, silver ^8%^: Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain Almost 2% and 8% on the Week blue ribbon winner!
2nd place? XAU @ +4.61%
white ribbon? HUI @ + 3.90%
hmmm... (fr. google): The XAU is an index traded on the Philadelphia exchange. It consists of 16 precious metal mining companies. Those companies and their current share prices ...(fr. google): HUI: Amex Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index ...
sherlock sez: the game is afoot!
Well...all this does benefit the usa and give us some breathing room to continue the rebalancing. So robo is correct.
Rebalancing is a politically correct word for all the things that happen in a depressionary equivalent.....kinda like " rightsizing" a business.
Thank god(s)...perhaps the banksters will have to try harder and print another $3 trillion to get the world's attention? LOL
When I say thank god(s), I mean it!
Anything to forestall the end game and total dollar devaluation, as I for one appreciate the time to prepare for the game *reset*
The trend is your friend...
"
As Dollar Short Covering Pushes USD To First Net Positive Level Since January"
Are you sure this is the reason? I thought it was because our highly esteemed President was visiting Europe and they have all suddenly realized how much strength our nation projects through him.. I am sure that the FX traders confidence in the USD has now at least doubled - say, to about 2008 levels? (after all, that is where BHO seems to be living!)
True, the COT data seems to indicate that dollar may be nearing a bottom but as of the action this week,,, it may be valuable to be just a bit cautious if looking for a long dollar postion (ie, wait for the major trend line break and the PSAR to give a buy signal again). See chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s224230059]&disp=P
Agreed. The dollar is officially trendless with a positive bias.
The easy part was going into cash when the dollar hit its final support line for the last two years. The hard part is to know what to do with the dollars now. I am totally clueless at this point.
Hold onto them. They may be Collector's Items.
Any thoughts on the USD/CAD? I'm Canadian with some USD I will using to buy land in central America. I'm thinking of converting a large part into CAD before start of QE3. Probably won't be for another few months that I use that money and I don't want to get stuck with green toilet paper. Thoughts?
You are best person to make that guess. If any of us could predict with certainity what the fx vampire sharks are going to do next, they would be too busy laughing all the way to the bank to sit and post at the ZH.
I would rather hold dollars than euros, yen or francs at this level. The fx markets are not always a sign of the currency health in my opinion. My favorite currency has been brazilian real for the last 6 years, and it is still the best looking paper around.
Zimbabwe Dollars!! I have 200 Trillion of them.. all of it denominated in two notes! NOW I fee rich? NOT!
Don't get me wrong. I am not saying that any of these currencies are a good place to store your capital, I was just expressing my opinion that euro, yen and swiss seem overvalued. I would like to see Zimbabwe issue gold and silver coins as their currency but I am quite sure that they would get invaded in no time at all.
How can countries hope to adjust their physical economies against the madness of free floating exchange rates ?
Its a impossible sisyphean task.
The banks are just extracting a surplus from us using this Punch and Judy show as their theatre of the absurd.
Fuck this shit and all those Friedmanite scumbags that profit from this ultimate waste of fucking time.
European left in absolute denial about the nature of economic disaster going on in the west:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7vhWwPc24A
(David Milliband, ex-Labour home secretary for UK). Ejected from an over spending (2x War) Government.
Now compare with MISH's article on hyperinflation (he regards hyperinflation as a political event):-
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/hyperinflation-nonsense-in-multiple.html
Note the table "The politics of hyperinflation" - reasons are either : War (Tick) , Socialism (Tick) , or dictatorship (half a tick, big brother societ in the UK, cameras, control orders, DNA database etc)
DAMMING.
We have to use the internet to kill of socialism.
Ironic that the Dollar has begun another run for the dregs over the past 4 days.
"Look out beloooooow!
Uh huh, & USD/CHF @ .852....glad I went big & long @ 1.10
Fundamentals, shmundamentals. About the only thing you need to trade forex these days is a stochastic oscillator and a zigzag indie. No need to avoid news releases as they no longer have any effect. Just watch it bounce around randomly and don't get too greedy. Duck soup.
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/\/\/\/\ Somebody please get off your arse & ban this spammer /\/\/\/\
It's MathMan's newest alter ego.
I have decided I don't know how to read these charts. I
USD selling pressure continues for now but the impending dollar rally I warned of is getting closer.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
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