A Look At Events In The Week Ahead: Global PMIs, US Payrolls And Middle East Deterioration
The three events to watch this week are the global PMI’s, US payrolls and events in the Middle East.
Goldman expects the China February PMI to be largely unchanged from January’s level. Regional factory surveys point to a strong ISM index for February.
Nonfarm payrolls in February probably grew at their fastest rate since last April. Consensus is looking for a 190k NFP number, and a 9.1% unemployment rate.
The dramatic events in the Middle East over the last few weeks will likely continue to impact global financial markets.
India GDP (Q4) The consensus expectation is at 8.6% yoy growth, after growing 8.9% in 2QFY11, mainly due to the weak performance of the manufacturing sector.
Euro zone CPI (Jan) The preliminary reading of the January CPI came in at 2.4% yoy, above consensus of 2.3% yoy, and contributed to expectations of ECB hikes sooner rather than later. Consensus expects a final reading of 2.4% yoy
Canada GDP (Q4) Consensus expects activity to have grown 3.0% qoq seasonally adjusted and at an annualized rate in Q4, up from 1.0% qoq in Q3.
United States Personal income and spending (Jan) consensus of 0.4% mom, while that for personal spending growth is 0.4% mom. Core PCE price index consensus of 0.1% mom.
United States Chicago PMI (Feb) Consensus of 67.5 and down from 68.8 in January.
Australia central bank meeting There is a strong consensus that the RBA will leave rates unchanged at its March Board meeting, and rightly so given the dovish commentary out of the central bank over recent weeks. Market pricing suggests just one rate hike is likely over 2011, consistent with our forecast increase in November.
Canada central bank meeting Consensus expects the Bank of Canada to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1%.
United States ISM (Feb) Regional factory surveys point to a strong ISM index for February. We forecast a rise in the ISM to 61.0, up from a reading of 60.5 in January. Consensus expects a smaller rise to 60.8.
United States Bernanke testimony No significant change in tone in Chairman Bernanke’s monetary policy testimony expected.
Switzerland GDP (Q4) Consensus expects GDP to grow 0.5% qoq in Q4, after growing 0.7% qoq in Q3.
Sweden GDP (Q4) Consensus expects GDP to grow 1.0% qoq in Q4, following growth of 2.1% qoq in the previous quarter. It is important to note that GDP data in Sweden are prone to revisions and preliminary national accounts data can deviate significantly from the later-revised GDP figures.
South Korea CPI (Feb) Consensus expects CPI inflation to rise to 4.3% yoy from 4.1% yoy in Jan.
Australia GDP (Q4) Partial data released thus far (trade, retail sales, capex, construction and motor vehicle sales) suggests economic momentum was pretty modest in the December quarter. Consensus is 0.6% qoq.
Poland GDP (Q4) Consensus expects GDP growth to measure 4.4% yoy in Q4, up slightly from 4.2% yoy in Q3.
Poland central bank meeting Consensus expects the policy rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%.
Brazil central bank meeting Consensus expects the target rate to be lifted by 50 bps to 11.75%.
Brazil GDP (Q4) GDP consensus is looking for a rise of 0.8% qoq, following a rise of 0.5% qoq in Q3.
Turkey CPI (Feb) Consensus expects inflation to fall to 4.17% yoy in February, down from 4.9% yoy in January.
Philippines CPI (Feb) Consensus expects inflation to rise to 3.7% yoy in February, up from 3.5% yoy in January and following a jump from 3.0% in December. Sequential inflation momentum has risen sharply, with inflation running close to 10% mom seasonally adjusted annualized in recent months.
Euro zone central bank meeting
United States initial claims Consensus expects the reading for initial claims to be 395k, against 391k in the previous week.
United States non-manufacturing ISM (Feb) Consensus is looking for 59.4, which is unchanged from January.
Brazil IPCA (Feb) Consensus expects IPCA inflation to measure 0.83% mom, unchanged from the reading in January.
United States Payrolls (Feb) Nonfarm payrolls in February probably grew at their fastest rate since last April. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than the typical forecaster and is looking for non-farm payroll of 200k, against consensus of 190k. Unemployment rate consensus is for a small rise to 9.1%.
Via Goldman Sachs
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