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A Look At Events In The Week Ahead: Global PMIs, US Payrolls And Middle East Deterioration

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Week Ahead
 
The three events to watch this week are the global PMI’s, US payrolls and events in the Middle East.
 
Goldman expects the China February PMI to be largely unchanged from January’s level. Regional factory surveys point to a strong ISM index for February.
 
Nonfarm payrolls in February probably grew at their fastest rate since last April. Consensus is looking for a 190k NFP number, and a 9.1% unemployment rate.
 
The dramatic events in the Middle East over the last few weeks will likely continue to impact global financial markets.
 
Monday 28th
 
India GDP (Q4) The consensus expectation is at 8.6% yoy growth, after growing 8.9% in 2QFY11, mainly due to the weak performance of the manufacturing sector.

Euro zone CPI (Jan) The preliminary reading of the January CPI came in at 2.4% yoy, above consensus of 2.3% yoy, and contributed to expectations of ECB hikes sooner rather than later. Consensus expects a final reading of 2.4% yoy

Canada GDP (Q4) Consensus expects activity to have grown 3.0% qoq seasonally adjusted and at an annualized rate in Q4, up from 1.0% qoq in Q3.

United States Personal income and spending (Jan) consensus of 0.4% mom, while that for personal spending growth is 0.4% mom. Core PCE price index consensus of 0.1% mom.

United States Chicago PMI (Feb) Consensus of 67.5 and down from 68.8 in January.
 
Tuesday 1st

Australia central bank meeting There is a strong consensus that the RBA will leave rates unchanged at its March Board meeting, and rightly so given the dovish commentary out of the central bank over recent weeks. Market pricing suggests just one rate hike is likely over 2011, consistent with our forecast increase in November.

Canada central bank meeting Consensus expects the Bank of Canada to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1%.

United States ISM (Feb) Regional factory surveys point to a strong ISM index for February. We forecast a rise in the ISM to 61.0, up from a reading of 60.5 in January. Consensus expects a smaller rise to 60.8.

United States Bernanke testimony No significant change in tone in Chairman Bernanke’s monetary policy testimony expected.

Switzerland GDP (Q4) Consensus expects GDP to grow 0.5% qoq in Q4, after growing 0.7% qoq in Q3.

Sweden GDP (Q4) Consensus expects GDP to grow 1.0% qoq in Q4, following growth of 2.1% qoq in the previous quarter. It is important to note that GDP data in Sweden are prone to revisions and preliminary national accounts data can deviate significantly from the later-revised GDP figures.
 
Wednesday 2nd

South Korea CPI (Feb) Consensus expects CPI inflation to rise to 4.3% yoy from 4.1% yoy in Jan.

Australia GDP (Q4) Partial data released thus far (trade, retail sales, capex, construction and motor vehicle sales) suggests economic momentum was pretty modest in the December quarter. Consensus is 0.6% qoq.

Poland GDP (Q4) Consensus expects GDP growth to measure 4.4% yoy in Q4, up slightly from 4.2% yoy in Q3.

Poland central bank meeting Consensus expects the policy rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%.

Brazil central bank meeting Consensus expects the target rate to be lifted by 50 bps to 11.75%.
 
Thursday 3rd

Brazil GDP (Q4) GDP consensus is looking for a rise of 0.8% qoq, following a rise of 0.5% qoq in Q3.

Turkey CPI (Feb) Consensus expects inflation to fall to 4.17% yoy in February, down from 4.9% yoy in January.

Philippines CPI (Feb) Consensus expects inflation to rise to 3.7% yoy in February, up from 3.5% yoy in January and following a jump from 3.0% in December. Sequential inflation momentum has risen sharply, with inflation running close to 10% mom seasonally adjusted annualized in recent months.

Euro zone central bank meeting

United States initial claims Consensus expects the reading for initial claims to be 395k, against 391k in the previous week.

United States non-manufacturing ISM (Feb) Consensus is looking for 59.4, which is unchanged from January.
 
Friday 4th

Brazil IPCA (Feb) Consensus expects IPCA inflation to measure 0.83% mom, unchanged from the reading in January.

United States Payrolls (Feb) Nonfarm payrolls in February probably grew at their fastest rate since last April. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than the typical forecaster and is looking for non-farm payroll of 200k, against consensus of 190k. Unemployment rate consensus is for a small rise to 9.1%.

Via Goldman Sachs

 

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Sun, 02/27/2011 - 17:55 | 1002201 Racer
Racer's picture

"The dramatic events in the Middle East over the last few weeks will likely continue to impact global financial markets" with the exception of the US where the usual BTFRise applies

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 17:58 | 1002208 Scottj88
Scottj88's picture

Looking bullish for gold and silver...

Now if the algorithms from GLD/GLDxJ weren't tied to so many of the major players, you wuoldve seen liftoff by now...

maybe in the juniors though...

http://thehardrightedge.com/miningequities/

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:08 | 1002233 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Fuck paper.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 17:58 | 1002212 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

the market will probally slowly rise into the close and rally hard on the first day of the month per usual

 

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:01 | 1002218 Misean
Misean's picture

I've found the magic 8 ball far more accurate than gov't stats of late.

 

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:10 | 1002239 snowball777
snowball777's picture

http://8ball.tridelphia.net/

"Outlook is not good."

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:12 | 1002245 Misean
Misean's picture

That ol' 8 ball. So reserved and polite...

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 20:45 | 1002536 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Terse, but batting a 1000.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:14 | 1002253 justtotaketheedgeoff
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We might want to keep an eye on Wisconsin too. A Fox News reporter, Mike Tobin, just reported that was just hit by a pro-public employee union protester.  The assault was not broadcast because other protesters had covered the camera's lens.  What I did see were angry faces of protesters quite close to him and they looked like they were directing their anger at him.  Nasty stuff.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:30 | 1002288 yabyum
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Fox lies, We report you obey!

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 22:04 | 1002692 Pegasus Muse
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Fox refused to report story. ----->> Koch Brothers "Prank" No Laughing Matter

Embattled Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker came under fire today after news broke about statements he made in a 20-minute phone call from a Buffalo-area alternative news reporter, Ian Murphy of the Daily Beast, posing as David Koch, a billionaire whose corporate PAC directly supported Walker and who has given millions to groups that have run ads to aid Walker's rise to the state's highest office. (Listen to the call here.)

As the Center for Media and Democracy has reported, the Koch PAC not only spent $43,000 directly on Walker's race, but Koch personally donated $1 million to the Republican Governors Association which spent $5 million in the state. Besides the Governor, the Koch brothers have other "vested interests" in the state.

They include Koch Pipeline Company, which operates a pipeline system that crosses Wisconsin. It also owns Flint Hill Resources, which distributes refined fuel through pipelines and terminals in Junction City, Waupun, Madison and Milwaukee. Koch Industries also owns the C. Reiss Coal Company, a power plant company located in Green Bay, Manitowoc, Ashland and Sheboygan.

The Koch company opened a lobby shop in Wisconsin two days after Walker was elected. Many protesters have suspected that the "budget repair bill" provisions allowing the no-bid sell-off of any state-owned heating, cooling, or power plant, plus new rules on pipeline transport may be of interest to Koch. The company has denied any interest in these assets.

Rest of post here:  http://www.prwatch.org/news/2011/02/10094/koch-brothers-prank-no-laughing-matter

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 07:50 | 1003396 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

Is anybody else sick of hearing the evil koch brothers...  I feel like i am watching a a bad james bond movie.. can we give it a rest

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:36 | 1002308 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2011 Arrests Starting in Wisconsin

I’ve gotten messages but don’t see any news items yet (you can apparently find confirmation on Twitter, @AndrewKroll, @ddayen, and PRNewswatch for instance) that the police in Wisconsin have announced they will begin arrests to clear the capitol building. It’s to start at 4:00 PM Central, so it is now in process.

Hundreds have said they are willing to be arrested. Human chains were formed around the capitol.

Wonder what happens when they run out of local jail space. Will they just haul protestors to the police station, arraign them, and release them? The first wave will presumably be incarcerated, but how far can they go with this, given the numbers involved?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 19:54 | 1002443 Hollow_Point
Hollow_Point's picture

The Gov did say he would call in the National Guard if need be.

Tin soldiers and Nixon's comin'.
We're finally on our own.
This summer I hear the drummin'.
Four dead in Ohio

 

That would surely spread the riots in the states.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 20:42 | 1002531 yabyum
yabyum's picture

And the National Guard is made up of? Working folks! Call 'em up guv! Better yet call up the koch brother lackeys, make sure thet have handiacpped parking for the bus.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:47 | 1002335 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I would have to say that the single most important number to come out next week is the number of contracts standing for March delivery.

But hey, that's just my own bias.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 19:46 | 1002434 Josh Randall
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Roger that - the card game is up and almost time for Blythe to show her pair

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:48 | 1002339 serotonindumptruck
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About time for some joint Russian/Syrian missile exercises in the Syrian desert. The Iranian naval cadets who are visiting might enjoy the show.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:57 | 1002348 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The Kingdom and their brand of Islam started this war.  Now it comes to them.  They and the Iranians arrogated themselves to "Egyptian weakness."  Now we shall see if "gifting their warships to Syria" is what all that arrogance is worth.  What's that Japanese saying?  "The nail that stands out get's hammered"?  Needless to say "poll numbers move inversely to niceness" in these matters.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 19:21 | 1002382 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

no mention of Europe.

I suppose that the likelyhood of Ireland pulling together and voting to default, thereby dooming the Euro, does not even make the top ten these days ....

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 19:46 | 1002426 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Eh, nothing a few hundred billion euros can't paper over.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 19:54 | 1002445 Thepnr
Thepnr's picture

Ireland may just be the wake up call that was required to be sent to the banksters and western governments. The ruling party in Ireland was slaughtered in the election.

How do Merkel, Cameron or Sarkozy feel now, not too comfortable would be my guess.

March 17th, St Patricks day.

Instead of being a day of celebration for all Irish I would love to see it become a day of demonstration against the corruption and unjustness of the current political system we approve through ignorance.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 20:04 | 1002458 Hollow_Point
Hollow_Point's picture

ya, and Enda Kenney may just let the bailout answer come from referendum;

Pick One

a) Should Ireland and the Irish people accept the generous offer from the bankers to have the Irish people bailout the banks?

b) Should Ireland and the Irish people tell the the bankers to GFTs?

Talk about holding all the Aces.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 20:38 | 1002518 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

The referendum could be the death-knell for the Euro. But who better to have Euros wake than the Irish. As Irish commentator James Joyce said about Finnegans wake...

 

"The fall (bababadalgharaghtakamminarronnkonnbronntonnerronntuonnthunntrovarrhounawnskawntoohoohoordenenthur-nuk!) of a once wallstrait oldparr is retaled early in bed and later on life down through all christian minstrelsy. The great fall of the offwall entailed at such short notice the pftjschute of Finnegan, erse solid man, that the humptyhillhead of humself prumptly sends an unquiring one well to the west in quest of his tumptytumtoes:

and their upturnpikepointandplace is at the knock out in the park where oranges have been laid to rust upon the green since devlinsfirst loved livvy."

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 21:34 | 1002635 topcallingtroll
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The irish are too meek and obedient. They will ask "pretty please may we have a lower interest rate?" After much bureaucratic delay and.committee referal and hard bargaining they will get a 30 basis point discount after they point out the unfairness of allowing greece to default and restructure with significant haircuts. The Irish used to be some badass fighters. Now they are just Europussies.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 20:17 | 1002475 Thepnr
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Doesn't really matter how much money you think you need to raise from the lobbyists if the people vote GTF.

In US politics the parties apparently are now looking for $1,000,000,000 to fund an election, the world has gone mad. This is why the bankers have been saved to garner their support with hard cash.

I for one have had enough, I'm disgusted with politics all parties are steeped in filth.

WE NEED TO RAISE OUR VOICE AND TELL THEM ALL TO GTF

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 20:36 | 1002513 Toburk
Toburk's picture

What's up with Canada's and Poland's GDP numbers?  I assume they must be annualized compared to the rest, but that would mean Brazil is just crawling along despite high resource prices, and Sweden is on fire.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 21:25 | 1002620 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Brazil did everything the right way with monetary policy. The real has risen. Interests rates have risen, and we stole a little bit of their growth. Hehe. Now if only china and asia would follow brazil's lead.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 20:47 | 1002540 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Comrade President Obama will implement GOSPLAN 2.0 -- all will be well again.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 21:05 | 1002568 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

Event of the week - civil war breaks out in Wisconsin.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 00:59 | 1003086 Jreb
Jreb's picture

So fucking tired of hearingabout Wisconsin and the new Zombie war. My message to the public employees of Wisconsin - you're broke. Deal with it.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 01:00 | 1003087 Jreb
Jreb's picture

Oops. Double post. Should have bought a Mac...

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